The importance of the diurnal and annual cycle of air traffic for contrail radiative forcing

Air traffic condensation trails, or contrails, are believed to have a net atmospheric warming effect, although one that is currently small compared to that induced by other sources of human emissions. However, the comparably large growth rate of air traffic requires an improved understanding of the resulting impact of aircraft radiative forcing on climate. Contrails have an effect on the Earth's energy balance similar to that of high thin ice clouds. Their trapping of outgoing longwave radiation emitted by the Earth and atmosphere (positive radiative forcing) is partly compensated by their reflection of incoming solar radiation (negative radiative forcing). On average, the longwave effect dominates and the net contrail radiative forcing is believed to be positive. Over daily and annual timescales, varying levels of air traffic, meteorological conditions, and solar insolation influence the net forcing effect of contrails. Here we determine the factors most important for contrail climate forcing using a sophisticated radiative transfer model for a site in southeast England, located in the entrance to the North Atlantic flight corridor. We find that night-time flights during winter (December to February) are responsible for most of the contrail radiative forcing. Night flights account for only 25 per cent of daily air traffic, but contribute 60 to 80 per cent of the contrail forcing. Further, winter flights account for only 22 per cent of annual air traffic, but contribute half of the annual mean forcing. These results suggest that flight rescheduling could help to minimize the climate impact of aviation.     

中国地区云与辐射对气候的影响

本文通过十年气象卫星系列观测资料和地面气象观观资料,分析云与辐射的关系。由此得出中国不同地区,不同季节的云量与地球行星反射率,与地气系统长波射出辐射的关系和经验公式。由此估算出地气系统净辐射随云量的变化率,以及云的反射率效应和温室效应之比。本文综合讨论地球一大气系统辐射过程。云对辐射平衡及气候的影响。     

卫星遥感东亚地区云辐射与气候

本文利用ＴＩＲＯＳ－Ｎ卫星ＴＯＶＳ系统，计算了１９８９年７，８，９月东亚地区的射出长波辐射（ＯＬＲ），云量和地表温度。由此讨论了ＯＬＲ的分布以及它与天气系统的联系。分析了地表温度，云量和ＯＬＲ的关系及晴空条件下海面温度与ＯＬＲ的相关性。本文综合分析了云对气系统辐射收支的影响及高，低云系统的不同的辐射效应。通过分析发现低云系统反射率应占主导地位，而高云系统是以温室效应为主。     

A climatologically significant aerosol longwave indirect effect in the Arctic

The warming of Arctic climate and decreases in sea ice thickness and extent observed over recent decades are believed to result from increased direct greenhouse gas forcing, changes in atmospheric dynamics having anthropogenic origin, and important positive reinforcements including ice-albedo and cloud-radiation feedbacks. The importance of cloud-radiation interactions is being investigated through advanced instrumentation deployed in the high Arctic since 1997 (refs 7, 8). These studies have established that clouds, via the dominance of longwave radiation, exert a net warming on the Arctic climate system throughout most of the year, except briefly during the summer. The Arctic region also experiences significant periodic influxes of anthropogenic aerosols, which originate from the industrial regions in lower latitudes. Here we use multisensor radiometric data to show that enhanced aerosol concentrations alter the microphysical properties of Arctic clouds, in a process known as the 'first indirect' effect. Under frequently occurring cloud types we find that this leads to an increase of an average 3.4 watts per square metre in the surface longwave fluxes. This is comparable to a warming effect from established greenhouse gases and implies that the observed longwave enhancement is climatologically significant.     

A lower limit for atmospheric carbon dioxide levels 3.2 billion years ago

The quantification of greenhouse gases present in the Archaean atmosphere is critical for understanding the evolution of atmospheric oxygen, surface temperatures and the conditions for life on early Earth. For instance, it has been argued that small changes in the balance between two potential greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide and methane, may have dictated the feedback cycle involving organic haze production and global cooling. Climate models have focused on carbon dioxide as the greenhouse gas responsible for maintaining above-freezing surface temperatures during a time of low solar luminosity. However, the analysis of 2.75-billion-year (Gyr)-old palaeosols--soil samples preserved in the geologic record--have recently provided an upper constraint on atmospheric carbon dioxide levels well below that required in most climate models to prevent the Earth's surface from freezing. This finding prompted many to look towards methane as an additional greenhouse gas to satisfy climate models. Here we use model equilibrium reactions for weathering rinds on 3.2-Gyr-old river gravels to show that the presence of iron-rich carbonate relative to common clay minerals requires a minimum partial pressure of carbon dioxide several times higher than present-day values. Unless actual carbon dioxide levels were considerably greater than this, climate models predict that additional greenhouse gases would still need to have a role in maintaining above-freezing surface temperatures.     

Evidence for a link between global lightning activity and upper tropospheric water vapour

Tropospheric water vapour is a key element of the Earth's climate, which has direct effects as a greenhouse gas, as well as indirect effects through interaction with clouds, aerosols and tropospheric chemistry. Small changes in upper-tropospheric water vapour have a much larger impact on the greenhouse effect than small changes in water vapour in the lower atmosphere, but whether this impact is a positive or negative feedback remains uncertain. The main challenge in addressing this question is the difficulty in monitoring upper-tropospheric water vapour globally over long timescales. Here I show that upper-tropospheric water-vapour variability and global lightning activity are closely linked, suggesting that upper-tropospheric water-vapour changes can be inferred from records of global lightning activity, readily obtained from observations at a single location on the Earth's surface. This correlation reflects the fact that continental deep-convective thunderstorms transport large amounts of water vapour into the upper troposphere and thereby dominate the variations of global upper-tropospheric water vapour while producing most of the lightning on Earth. As global lightning induces Schumann resonances, an electromagnetic phenomenon in the atmosphere that can be observed easily at low cost, monitoring of these resonances might provide a convenient method for tracking upper-tropospheric water-vapour variability and hence contribute to a better understanding of the processes affecting climate change.     

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations before 2.2 billion years ago

The composition of the Earth's early atmosphere is a subject of continuing debate. In particular, it has been suggested that elevated concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide would have been necessary to maintain normal surface temperatures in the face of lower solar luminosity in early Earth history. Fossil weathering profiles, known as palaeosols, have provided semi-quantitative constraints on atmospheric oxygen partial pressure (pO2) before 2.2 Gyr ago. Here we use the same well studied palaeosols to constrain atmospheric pCO2 between 2.75 and 2.2 Gyr ago. The observation that iron lost from the tops of these profiles was reprecipitated lower down as iron silicate minerals, rather than as iron carbonate, indicates that atmospheric pCO2 must have been less than 10(-1.4) atm--about 100 times today's level of 360 p.p.m., and at least five times lower than that required in one-dimensional climate models to compensate for lower solar luminosity at 2.75 Gyr. Our results suggest that either the Earth's early climate was much more sensitive to increases in pCO2 than has been thought, or that one or more greenhouse gases other than CO2 contributed significantly to the atmosphere's radiative balance during the late Archaean and early Proterozoic eons.     

Increased Arctic cloud longwave emissivity associated with pollution from mid-latitudes

There is consensus among climate models that Arctic climate is particularly sensitive to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and that, over the next century, Arctic surface temperatures are projected to rise at a rate about twice the global mean. The response of Arctic surface temperatures to greenhouse gas thermal emission is modified by Northern Hemisphere synoptic meteorology and local radiative processes. Aerosols may play a contributing factor through changes to cloud radiative properties. Here we evaluate a previously suggested contribution of anthropogenic aerosols to cloud emission and surface temperatures in the Arctic. Using four years of ground-based aerosol and radiation measurements obtained near Barrow, Alaska, we show that, where thin water clouds and pollution are coincident, there is an increase in cloud longwave emissivity resulting from elevated haze levels. This results in an estimated surface warming under cloudy skies of between 3.3 and 5.2 W m(-2) or 1 and 1.6 degrees C. Arctic climate is closely tied to cloud longwave emission, but feedback mechanisms in the system are complex and the actual climate response to the described sensitivity remains to be evaluated.     

温室气体变化数值模拟试验中全球降水和温度变化的迟滞效应

利用耦合气候模式(GFDL-CM2.1)研究变动气候背景下全球平均降水和温度的变化。不同情景CO2 强迫试验表明, 降水变化存在明显的迟滞效应。全球平均降水与地表温度的变化存在显著的线性关系, 但是降水同时也受到CO2 浓度的直接影响。在CO2 增加又恢复的试验中, 降水变化滞后于地表温度变化, 出现降水 “迟滞效应”。在CO2 增加过程中, 温室效应增强会立即导致大气长波吸收增强, 大气获得的净辐射能量增加, 为维持大气能量收支平衡, 地面向上潜热通量受到抑制, 形成CO2 增加对降水的抑制效应。随之而来的温度上升则主要引起大气层顶出射长波辐射以及大气对地表的长波回辐射增加, 大气净辐射能量减少, 地面潜热通量增加, 从而引起降水的增加。在CO2 减少过程中, 情况正好相反, 温室效应减弱会增加降水, 而温度降低会减少降水。温度和CO2 对降水的不同影响决定了降水的迟滞效应。     

Venus as a more Earth-like planet

Venus is Earth's near twin in mass and radius, and our nearest planetary neighbour, yet conditions there are very different in many respects. Its atmosphere, mostly composed of carbon dioxide, has a surface temperature and pressure far higher than those of Earth. Only traces of water are found, although it is likely that there was much more present in the past, possibly forming Earth-like oceans. Here we discuss how the first year of observations by Venus Express brings into focus the evolutionary paths by which the climates of two similar planets diverged from common beginnings to such extremes. These include a CO2-driven greenhouse effect, erosion of the atmosphere by solar particles and radiation, surface-atmosphere interactions, and atmospheric circulation regimes defined by differing planetary rotation rates.     

Global atmospheric chemistry of CFC-123

THE compound 1,1-dichloro-2,2,2-trifluoroethane (CFC-123), which is potentially usable as a foam-blowing agent in the plastics industry, an aerosol propellant and a refrigerant, has been proposed as an industrial substitute for trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11), the use of which is increasingly restricted because of its effects on the ozone layer and on climate(1-3). It is expected that CFC-123, although like CFC-11 an absorber of infrared radiation, will be less stable in the atmosphere because of its expected reaction with OH radicals in the troposphere. Using a three-dimensional global model of the atmosphere, we have calculated the chemical destruction rates of CFC-123 by various processes, confirming that the chief sink is destruction by OH radicals below 12 km, which accounts for 88% of its loss. The calculated destruction rate is greatest in the equatorial region below 2 km. The calculated steady-state lifetime of CFC-123 is 1.5 years, based on the best available estimate of the rate constant of the reaction with OH. This lifetime is very much shorter than that of CFC-11, the destruction of which is largely confined to the stratosphere. For equal rates (by mass) of CFC-123 and CFC-11 emission to the atmosphere, the molar content in the atmosphere and the injection rate of chlorine into the stratosphere are, respectively, 48 and 14 times greater for CFC-11 than for CFC-123 in steady-state.     

The Earth's 'missing' niobium may be in the core

As the Earth's metallic core segregated from the silicate mantle, some of the moderately siderophile ('iron-loving') elements such as vanadium and chromium are thought to have entered the metal phase, thus causing the observed depletions of these elements in the silicate part of the Earth. In contrast, refractory 'lithophile' elements such as calcium, scandium and the rare-earth elements are known to be present in the same proportions in the silicate portion of the Earth as in the chondritic meteorites-thought to represent primitive planetary material. Hence these lithophile elements apparently did not enter the core. Niobium has always been considered to be lithophile and refractory yet it has been observed to be depleted relative to other elements of the same type in the crust and upper mantle. This observation has been used to infer the existence of hidden niobium-rich reservoirs in the Earth's deep mantle. Here we show, however, that niobium and vanadium partition in virtually identical fashion between liquid metal and liquid silicate at high pressure. Thus, if a significant fraction of the Earth's vanadium entered the core (as is thought), then so has a similar fraction of its niobium, and no hidden reservoir need be sought in the Earth's deep mantle.     

Biosignatures as revealed by spectropolarimetry of Earthshine

Low-resolution intensity spectra of Earth's atmosphere obtained from space reveal strong signatures of life ('biosignatures'), such as molecular oxygen and methane with abundances far from chemical equilibrium, as well as the presence of a 'red edge' (a sharp increase of albedo for wavelengths longer than 700?nm) caused by surface vegetation. Light passing through the atmosphere is strongly linearly polarized by scattering (from air molecules, aerosols and cloud particles) and by reflection (from oceans and land). Spectropolarimetric observations of local patches of Earth's sky light from the ground contain signatures of oxygen, ozone and water, and are used to characterize the properties of clouds and aerosols. When applied to exoplanets, ground-based spectropolarimetry can better constrain properties of atmospheres and surfaces than can standard intensity spectroscopy. Here we report disk-integrated linear polarization spectra of Earthshine, which is sunlight that has been first reflected by Earth and then reflected back to Earth by the Moon. The observations allow us to determine the fractional contribution of clouds and ocean surface, and are sensitive to visible areas of vegetation as small as 10 per cent. They represent a benchmark for the diagnostics of the atmospheric composition, mean cloud height and surfaces of exoplanets.     

Volatile accretion history of the Earth

It has long been thought that the Earth had a protracted and complex history of volatile accretion and loss. Albarède paints a different picture, proposing that the Earth first formed as a dry planet which, like the Moon, was devoid of volatile constituents. He suggests that the Earth's complement of volatile elements was only established later, by the addition of a small veneer of volatile-rich material at ～100 Myr (here and elsewhere, ages are relative to the origin of the Solar System). Here we argue that the Earth's mass balance of moderately volatile elements is inconsistent with Albarède's hypothesis but is well explained by the standard model of accretion from partially volatile-depleted material, accompanied by core formation.     

Snowball Earth prevention by dissolved organic carbon remineralization

The 'snowball Earth' hypothesis posits the occurrence of a sequence of glaciations in the Earth's history sufficiently deep that photosynthetic activity was essentially arrested. Because the time interval during which these events are believed to have occurred immediately preceded the Cambrian explosion of life, the issue as to whether such snowball states actually developed has important implications for our understanding of evolutionary biology. Here we couple an explicit model of the Neoproterozoic carbon cycle to a model of the physical climate system. We show that the drawdown of atmospheric oxygen into the ocean, as surface temperatures decline, operates so as to increase the rate of remineralization of a massive pool of dissolved organic carbon. This leads directly to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide, enhanced greenhouse warming of the surface of the Earth, and the prevention of a snowball state.     

Wave acceleration of electrons in the Van Allen radiation belts

The Van Allen radiation belts are two regions encircling the Earth in which energetic charged particles are trapped inside the Earth's magnetic field. Their properties vary according to solar activity and they represent a hazard to satellites and humans in space. An important challenge has been to explain how the charged particles within these belts are accelerated to very high energies of several million electron volts. Here we show, on the basis of the analysis of a rare event where the outer radiation belt was depleted and then re-formed closer to the Earth, that the long established theory of acceleration by radial diffusion is inadequate; the electrons are accelerated more effectively by electromagnetic waves at frequencies of a few kilohertz. Wave acceleration can increase the electron flux by more than three orders of magnitude over the observed timescale of one to two days, more than sufficient to explain the new radiation belt. Wave acceleration could also be important for Jupiter, Saturn and other astrophysical objects with magnetic fields.     

An extreme distortion of the Van Allen belt arising from the 'Hallowe'en' solar storm in 2003

The Earth's radiation belts--also known as the Van Allen belts--contain high-energy electrons trapped on magnetic field lines. The centre of the outer belt is usually 20,000-25,000 km from Earth. The region between the belts is normally devoid of particles, and is accordingly favoured as a location for spacecraft operation because of the benign environment. Here we report that the outer Van Allen belt was compressed dramatically by a solar storm known as the 'Hallowe'en storm' of 2003. From 1 to 10 November, the outer belt had its centre only approximately 10,000 km from Earth's equatorial surface, and the plasmasphere was similarly displaced inwards. The region between the belts became the location of high particle radiation intensity. This remarkable deformation of the entire magnetosphere implies surprisingly powerful acceleration and loss processes deep within the magnetosphere.     

全球气候变化及冰期与间冰期交替的原因及其计算

许多科学家都怀疑温室气体的排放是全球变暖的主要因素，他们认为自然驱动才是全球气候变化的主要因素，但他们并未找出具有说服力的自然驱动力。于是作者研究了各种可能引起气候变化的自然驱动力，发现火山活动能改变地球的轨道，因而是引起气候明显变化的关键因素。其中主要推导了火山喷发改变地球转速的公式以及地球变速引起地球变轨的公式。根据这些公式，通过计算机的高精度计算可以发现一定规模的火山喷发确实能使地球变轨，从而使全球变冷或变暖，甚至进入冰期或间冰期。因此，解决了气候变暖以及冰期与间冰期交替的成因问题，并找出了相应的对策。     

Origin of the Moon in a giant impact near the end of the Earth's formation

The Moon is generally believed to have formed from debris ejected by a large off-centre collision with the early Earth. The impact orientation and size are constrained by the angular momentum contained in both the Earth's spin and the Moon's orbit, a quantity that has been nearly conserved over the past 4.5 billion years. Simulations of potential moon-forming impacts now achieve resolutions sufficient to study the production of bound debris. However, identifying impacts capable of yielding the Earth-Moon system has proved difficult. Previous works found that forming the Moon with an appropriate impact angular momentum required the impact to occur when the Earth was only about half formed, a more restrictive and problematic model than that originally envisaged. Here we report a class of impacts that yield an iron-poor Moon, as well as the current masses and angular momentum of the Earth-Moon system. This class of impacts involves a smaller-and thus more likely-object than previously considered viable, and suggests that the Moon formed near the very end of Earth's accumulation.     

Silicon in the Earth's core

Small isotopic differences between the silicate minerals in planets may have developed as a result of processes associated with core formation, or from evaporative losses during accretion as the planets were built up. Basalts from the Earth and the Moon do indeed appear to have iron isotopic compositions that are slightly heavy relative to those from Mars, Vesta and primitive undifferentiated meteorites (chondrites). Explanations for these differences have included evaporation during the 'giant impact' that created the Moon (when a Mars-sized body collided with the young Earth). However, lithium and magnesium, lighter elements with comparable volatility, reveal no such differences, rendering evaporation unlikely as an explanation. Here we show that the silicon isotopic compositions of basaltic rocks from the Earth and the Moon are also distinctly heavy. A likely cause is that silicon is one of the light elements in the Earth's core. We show that both the direction and magnitude of the silicon isotopic effect are in accord with current theory based on the stiffness of bonding in metal and silicate. The similar isotopic composition of the bulk silicate Earth and the Moon is consistent with the recent proposal that there was large-scale isotopic equilibration during the giant impact. We conclude that Si was already incorporated as a light element in the Earth's core before the Moon formed.