The coupling procedure of air-sea freshwater exchange in climate system models

A coupling procedure of air-sea freshwater exchange in climate system models is reported in this note. The first stage of the procedure is to force OGCM to equilibrium under strong restoring surface condition on salinity, then increase the relaxing coefficient and get another steady state. The second stage is to switch the forcing on salinity from the weak restoring condition to the flux condition, and then finish a long-term spinning-up integration. After finishing these OGCM spinning-up stages, the last stage is to couple the OGCM with an active atmosphere, i.e. AGCM. Verification with the Global-Ocean-Atmosphere-Land-System model developed at the State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) shows that the preferred procedure is successful in including the air-sea freshwater exchange process.     

东亚地区人为硫酸盐气溶胶辐射气候效应不同模拟方法的对比

 利用区域气候模式RegCM2与大气化学模式连接的模拟系统,研究了中国地区人为排放生成的硫酸盐气溶胶分布及其辐射气候效应,并与全球模式的结果进行了比较,同时对比了硫酸盐气溶胶辐射气候效应的在线、离线模拟方法所得结果差异的细致情况.通过以上工作表明:区域气候和大气化学耦合模式系统能在比大气环流模式更精细的尺度上获得硫酸盐分布规律和辐射气候效应;并且区域气候模式与大气化学模式的在线与离线连接方法得到的硫酸盐柱含量、有反馈和无反馈大气顶直接辐射强迫和地表温度响应在较小区域平均的尺度上存在较显著的差异,并且在全区域平均尺度上也不能被忽略;通过对气候响应的进一步分析发现:模拟结果显示了从硫酸盐含量到辐射强迫和地表温度响应逐渐加大的不确定性.     

短期区域气候预测系统及回报试验

为了提高短期区域气候预测准确率,针对我国大陆区域及周边海域,通过国家气候中心全球海气耦合模式嵌套一个区域大气-海洋耦合模式,建立了一套短期区域气候预测系统。利用该预测系统对2006-2011年逐年7月的气候特征进行了回报试验,对比分析了区域模式相对于全球模式预测高空形势场的差异,评估了预测系统对地面温度和降水的预测能力。试验表明:同化后,初估场质量显著提高;区域模式在预测高空形势场方面优于全球模式;相对于单独的大气模式,海气耦合模式在预测中低空的温度和湿度方面有一定的改善;系统对地面气温和降水均具有一定的预报能力,其中降水预测稍好。     

适应全球气候变化的森林固碳计量方法评述

在全球气候变化背景下,研究森林固碳计量方法理论具有重要意义。笔者基于文献计量学方法评述了该研究领域近年来的最新进展,比较了各森林固碳计量方法的优缺点。森林固碳计量方法主要包括基于样地清查或遥感估测和基于模型模拟的方法。选择合适的方法需要考虑数据信息、研究侧重点及各方法间的兼容性等。目前,森林碳计量的核心目标是构建各树种的异速生长方程,难点主要是尺度转换。样地调查、遥感估测和模型模拟等方法的综合运用是解决尺度转换问题和研究森林生态系统碳循环的主要趋势。特别要加强全球气候变化背景下人工林的适应性管理,科学评估人工林的固碳潜力,提升人工林固碳潜力评估方法的必要性。同时,也需要加强森林生态系统C-N-H₂O耦合循环及其生物调控机制方面的研究,降低森林生态系统碳收支评估的不确定性。     

融合地学知识的农业气候资源曲面建模

探讨地学知识获取与融合方法,将领域知识转换为定量的模型约束条件或初始值,采用趋势面拟合及空间插值等方法进行农业气候资源空间分布曲面建模.基于所构建模型,利用1951 ～ 2002年间全国735个地面台站的气温纪录数据,考虑了气温与海拔高程、经度、纬度、地表复杂度等地形要素的综合影响构建了曲面模型,模拟1 km×1 km...     

基于BP神经网络对黄河源区降水的降尺度模拟研究

利用黄河源区实测的水文气象资料、NCEP再分析数据及HadCM3情景模式,通过研究气象因子与降雨之间的非线性关系,基于BP神经网络模型采用3种不同时段(即全年S1、枯水期和丰水期S2及四季S4)对黄河源区建立3种降雨的统计降尺度模式,分析评价不同模式对降雨指标的模拟能力.结果表明:3个模型的模拟效果的优劣随着研究的时间尺度变化,对多数降雨指标的变化趋势能成功捕捉,但对量的模拟效果会随着指标和季节而变化,对极端指标的模拟效果均较差.     

A piecewise-integration method for simulating the influence of external forcing on climate

Climate drift occurs in most general circulation models （GCMs） as a result of incomplete physical and numerical representation of the complex climate system, which may cause large uncertainty in sensitivity experiments evaluating climate response to changes in external forcing. To solve this problem, we propose a piecewise-integration method to reduce the systematic error in climate sensitivity studies. The observations are firstly assimilated into a numerical model by using the dynamic relaxation technique to relax to the current state of atmosphere, and then the assimilated fields are continuously used to reinitialize the simulation to reduce the error of climate simulation. When the numerical model is integrated with changed external forcing, the results can be split into two parts, background and pertur- bation fields, and the background is the state before the external forcing is changed. The piecewise-integration method is used to con- tinuously reinitialize the model with the assimilated field, instead of the background. Therefore, the simulation error of the model with the external forcing can be reduced. In this way, the accuracy of climate sensitivity experiments is greatly improved. Tests with a simple low-order spectral model show that this approach can significantly reduce the uncertainty of climate sensitivity experiments.     

The relationship between the thermohaline circulation and climate variability

The long-term integration with the Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model of the State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences has been used in the investigations on the relationship between the thermohaline circulation and climate variability. The results show that the strength of the North Atlantic Thermohaline circulation (THC) is negatively correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Based on this kind of relationship, and also the instrument-measured climate record such as air pressure and sea surface temperature, the activity of the thermohaline circulation during the 20th century has been evaluated. The inferred variations of the strength of the THC is that, during two multi-decadal periods of 1867–1903 and 1934–1972, the THC is estimated to have been running stronger, whereas during the two periods of 1904–1933 and 1973–1994, it appears to have been weaker.     

Land-atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe

Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to enhance the interannual variability of summer climate in Europe and other mid-latitude regions, potentially causing more frequent heatwaves. Climate models consistently predict an increase in the variability of summer temperatures in these areas, but the underlying mechanisms responsible for this increase remain uncertain. Here we explore these mechanisms using regional simulations of recent and future climatic conditions with and without land-atmosphere interactions. Our results indicate that the increase in summer temperature variability predicted in central and eastern Europe is mainly due to feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere. Furthermore, they suggest that land-atmosphere interactions increase climate variability in this region because climatic regimes in Europe shift northwards in response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, creating a new transitional climate zone with strong land-atmosphere coupling in central and eastern Europe. These findings emphasize the importance of soil-moisture-temperature feedbacks (in addition to soil-moisture-precipitation feedbacks) in influencing summer climate variability and the potential migration of climate zones with strong land-atmosphere coupling as a consequence of global warming. This highlights the crucial role of land-atmosphere interactions in future climate change.     

带脉冲负载电池储能系统的源载耦合建模

针对带脉冲负载的电池储能系统（battery energy storage system with pulsed load，BESS-PL）源载耦合和脉冲特性建模问题，采用状态空间法和信号平均法分别构建了BESS-PL源载耦合精确模型和平均模型，基于此提出了一种准精确建模方法，对高频分量合理简化，保留了BESS-PL特有的脉冲特性，从而构建BESS-PL源载耦合准精确模型。通过稳定性理论分析和仿真，对比3种BESS-PL源载耦合数学模型的特点和不同适用情况。其中，基于平均模型推导BESS-PL系统的稳态传递函数，利用波特图分析讨论脉冲占空比和DC/DC变换器开关占空比对稳定性的影响规律；结合3种模型仿真，分析了BESS-PL系统关键参量和源载功率的关联规律、脉动特性及占空比对稳定性的影响规律。3种建模方法可灵活用于BESS-PL系统源载耦合特性和脉冲特性的暂稳态分析。     

盘式制动器热弹性耦合分析

探讨了汽车盘式制动器的摩擦接触热弹性耦合非线性问题及其分析方法.利用有限元分析软件ANSYS 8.1建立盘式制动器热弹性耦合分析的三维有限元模型,确定对模型求解的边界条件、载荷步及模拟工况,研究进行制动器热弹性耦合分析的过程,通过仿真计算得到制动器工作过程中制动盘瞬态温度场、应力场等重要信息.     

多领域仿真模型分治求解策略

提出了一种分治求解策略,即在仿真模型规模分解基础上建立耦合块依赖图和序列表,对各耦合块建立相应的求解块,通过遍历耦合块序列表并调用相应求解块,可获得仿真模型的数值解.考虑到参数变动下的重复仿真,对耦合块依赖图进行分层处理,生成对应于变动参数集的变动子图;通过施加虚根节点将变动子图转化成最小求解树结构.因此,对变动参数集的不同参数值进行重复仿真只需层次遍历最小求解树,再调用相应求解块即可.该方法可大幅度提高复杂模型的多次仿真求解效率,特别适用于后续的模型实验和参数优化.     

Extraseasonal ensemble numerical predictions of winter climate over China

Using the nine-level Atmospheric General Circulation Model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP9L-AGCM) under the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 30-year extraseasonal short-term ensemble hincast of winter climate is performed, with integrations starting from annual autumn during 1969—1998. Winter climate predictability over China is then evaluated for the first time. It follows that the predictability is higher in tropics than in extratropics. Also, it is higher over ocean compared with land, especially for surface air temperature. With height increasing in troposphere, the predictability of geopotential height slightly changes zonally, but for weakening of band-ship distribution and dropping near the date line. Of all analyzed variables, the prediction skill of air temperature and geopotential height (precipitation) is the highest (smallest). In addition, the predictability of winter climate over China and even East Asia enhances obviously during ENSO cycle, especially during La Nia phase. Simulation comparison against verifying analysis for surface temperature anomaly exhibits the model抯 skill in predicting surface temperature抯 interannual variation trend in winter.     

水砂混相流运动的CIP-DEM耦合数值模型

为建立精确模拟水砂混合流(如:挟砂溃坝溢流)问题的数值计算方法,提出了模拟固液混相流运动的垂向二维CIPDEM法耦合数值计算模型。模型采用CIP(constrained interpolation profile scheme)法求解描述水体运动的Navier-Stokes流体运动方程,采用DEM(discrete element method)法求解描述泥沙粒子团运动的牛顿力学方程;并通过水砂间的相互作用关系将水-砂运动进行耦合。通过分别对溃坝溢流和砂体下落的单相体运动进行数值模拟并与前人的实验结果进行对比,验证了CIP法流体计算模型和DEM法砂体计算模型妥当。在此基础上,采用所建立的CIP-DEM水砂耦合数值计算模型对干床面上的挟砂溃坝溢流问题进行了数值模拟,计算得出的挟砂溃坝溢流中的水、砂运动形态和运动过程与Zhang(2009)等的实验结果吻合良好,表明提出的CIP-DEM耦合模型在对具有大自由表面变形的水砂运动问题的模拟中具有较好的适用性。     

A study on coupling technique and implementation of the wave-circulation coupled model

The coupler is fundamental for a coupled model to realize complex interactions among compo- nent models. This paper focuses on the coupling process of Wave-Circulation （W-C） coupled model which consists of MASNUM （key laboratory of marine science and numerical modeling wave model） and POM （ Princeton Ocean Model）. The current coupling module of this coupled model is based on the inefficient I/O file, which has already become a performance bottleneck especially when the cou- pled model utilizes a large number of processes. To improve the performance of the W-C model, a flexible coupling module based on the model coupling toolkit （MCT） is designed and implemented to replace the current I/O file coupling module in the coupled model. Empirical studies that we have carried out demonstrate that our online coupling module can dramatically improve the parallel per- formance of the coupled model. The online coupling module outperforms the I/O file coupling mod- ule. When processes increase to 96, the whole process of EXP-C takes only 695.8 seconds, which is only 58.8% of the execution time of EXP-F. Based on our experiments under 2D Parallel Decom- position （2DPD）, we suggest setting parallel decomposition strategies automatically to component models in order to achieve high parallel efficiency.     

车载天线间耦合干扰特性分析

针对车载天线间耦合干扰问题,通过理论、实验、仿真的方式进行了全面、深入的分析与验证。首先,基于矩量法和快速多极子方法,通过将近场耦合转化成多端网络的功率传输,建立了耦合度的计算模型。接着,针对近场区耦合的特点,提出了采用间接测试法构建耦合度实验平台,并引入了三维电磁仿真软件对理论分析与实际测试结果进行比较。实例分析表明了模型的准确性和耦合干扰的严重性(可超过100 d B),为进一步研究共址干扰缓解与抑制提供了理论依据。     

The role of the thermohaline circulation in abrupt climate change

The possibility of a reduced Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to increases in greenhouse-gas concentrations has been demonstrated in a number of simulations with general circulation models of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. But it remains difficult to assess the likelihood of future changes in the thermohaline circulation, mainly owing to poorly constrained model parameterizations and uncertainties in the response of the climate system to greenhouse warming. Analyses of past abrupt climate changes help to solve these problems. Data and models both suggest that abrupt climate change during the last glaciation originated through changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in response to small changes in the hydrological cycle. Atmospheric and oceanic responses to these changes were then transmitted globally through a number of feedbacks. The palaeoclimate data and the model results also indicate that the stability of the thermohaline circulation depends on the mean climate state.     

热-力-电耦合下天线罩电性能仿真及分析

在实际飞行工况下,热力载荷会改变高速飞行器天线罩原有的电磁特性,从而影响制导性能。提出了一种基于六面体网格划分的热-力-电耦合模型及仿真方法,可准确表征高速飞行工况下天线罩介电温漂和结构变形对电性能的影响。基于天线罩热-力-电共享网格模型,首先通过瞬态热仿真得到天线罩响应温度场,通过静力分析得到天线罩结构变形场。然后,将天线罩介电温漂和结构变形准确传递到其电磁仿真模型中,并采用三维射线跟踪法计算其电性能。最后通过一个典型算例对高速飞行工况下天线罩电性能的变化进行仿真和分析,结果表明电性能变化非常明显,也进一步说明了所提方法的可行性和研究的必要性。     

近水面水下双气泡耦合作用数值模拟

为研究近水面水下双气泡耦合作用过程,基于LS-DYNA软件开展了近水面水下单、双气泡数值模拟.通过利用高速摄影技术获得的试验结果与仿真结果进行对比验证,证明了本文数值模拟模型的有效性.通过对数值模拟结果进一步分析,得到了该过程的气泡最大半径、膨胀时间以及由气泡形态分析得到耦合作用过程.结果表明,近水面水下双气泡耦合作用过程并非两个单气泡的简单叠加,其横向收缩速度比单气泡慢,气泡到达最高点时间与单气泡相比有1 ms延迟,融合气泡膨胀过程融合,收缩过程中顶端两侧向斜下方凹陷.     

Quantification of modelling uncertainties in a large ensemble of climate change simulations

Comprehensive global climate models are the only tools that account for the complex set of processes which will determine future climate change at both a global and regional level. Planners are typically faced with a wide range of predicted changes from different models of unknown relative quality, owing to large but unquantified uncertainties in the modelling process. Here we report a systematic attempt to determine the range of climate changes consistent with these uncertainties, based on a 53-member ensemble of model versions constructed by varying model parameters. We estimate a probability density function for the sensitivity of climate to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, and obtain a 5-95 per cent probability range of 2.4-5.4 degrees C. Our probability density function is constrained by objective estimates of the relative reliability of different model versions, the choice of model parameters that are varied and their uncertainty ranges, specified on the basis of expert advice. Our ensemble produces a range of regional changes much wider than indicated by traditional methods based on scaling the response patterns of an individual simulation.