Do credit booms predict US recessions?

This paper investigates the role of bank credit in predicting US recessions since the 1960s in the context of a bivariate probit model. A set of results emerge. First, credit booms are shown to have strong positive effects in predicting declines in the business cycle at horizons ranging from 6 to 9 months. Second, I propose to isolate the effect of credit booms by identifying the contribution of excess bank liquidity alongside a housing factor in the downturn of each cycle. Third, the out-of-sample performance of the model is tested on the most recent credit-driven recession: the Great Recession of 2008. The model performs better than a more parsimonious version where we restrict the effect of credit booms on the business cycle in the system to be zero.     

Composite leading indicators of underlying inflation for seven EU countries

This paper presents short‐ and long‐term composite leading indicators (CLIs) of underlying inflation for seven EU countries, namely Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden and the UK. CLI and CPI reference series are calculated in terms of both growth rates and in deviations from its trend. The composite leading indicators are based on leading basic series, such as sources of inflation, series containing information on inflation expectations and prices of intermediate goods and services. Neftci's decision rule approach has been applied to transfer movements in the CLIs into a measure of the probability of a cyclical turning point, which enables the screening out of false turning point predictions. Finally, CLIs have been used to analyse the international coherence of price cycles. The forecast performance of CLIs of inflation over the past raises hope that this forecast instrument can be useful in predicting future price movements. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Note the use of growth curves in forecasting market development

In this note the four-parameter generalized logistic curve is introduced and some of its properties are discussed. The curve is then fitted to certain data sets. The results indicate that the generalized logistic can be a worthwhile alternative to the more familiar logistic and Gompertz curves.     

The leading indicator approach to economic forecasting—retrospect and prospect

Our purpose in this paper is to explain briefly the theory and rationale underlying the leading, coincident and lagging indicators, describe the more important statistical procedures used, and review the evidence on how the indicators have performed in practice. The tests of performance concentrate on data not used in the selection of the indicators, in the United States and nine other countries. We conclude with some suggestions for future research and development, including the application of the approach to the analysis of inflation.     

Using the life cycle to anticipate satisfaction at work

It was hypothesized that there are important non-linear life-cycle influences upon job and organizational satisfaction. Five common life-cycle stages were identified from the literature: the phases of ‘reality shock’, ‘socialization and growth’, ‘mid-career crisis’, ‘acceptance’, and ‘pre-retirement’. The first, third and last stages were expected to show declines in job and organizational satisfaction because of the personal and job-related disappointments and crises that typically occur during these periods of life. The second and fourth stages were expected to show increases in satisfaction because of the pleasant life experiences that often occur then. All but the first stage supported these hypotheses when we controlled for the influence of sex, education, job experience, level in the hierarchy and occupational upward mobility.     

面向网络的操作系统——现状和挑战

操作系统是计算机系统中最为关键的一层系统软件．长期以来,操作系统发展的主线是面向单机,追求更好地发挥计算机硬件的计算能力,同时为上层应用和用户提供更友好易用的接口．随着网络技术的发展,如何更好地支持网络构成了操作系统发展的一个重要辅线．近年来,由于互联网的迅速普及,面向网络的操作系统得到了广泛的关注,并逐渐成为操作系统发展的新主线．为了更好地管理互联网上的分布海量资源,同时为互联网时代的新型应用和服务提供支持,操作系统技术正在产生许多重要的变革．本文简要回顾了操作系统的发展历史,分析了在互联网时代操作系统面临的主要挑战．在总结现有面向网络的操作系统的研究进展的基础上,讨论了其主要特点和未来发展趋势．最后,也介绍了我们在此领域针对网构软件的研发尝试．