Global trends in emerging infectious diseases

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are a significant burden on global economies and public health. Their emergence is thought to be driven largely by socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors, but no comparative study has explicitly analysed these linkages to understand global temporal and spatial patterns of EIDs. Here we analyse a database of 335 EID 'events' (origins of EIDs) between 1940 and 2004, and demonstrate non-random global patterns. EID events have risen significantly over time after controlling for reporting bias, with their peak incidence (in the 1980s) concomitant with the HIV pandemic. EID events are dominated by zoonoses (60.3% of EIDs): the majority of these (71.8%) originate in wildlife (for example, severe acute respiratory virus, Ebola virus), and are increasing significantly over time. We find that 54.3% of EID events are caused by bacteria or rickettsia, reflecting a large number of drug-resistant microbes in our database. Our results confirm that EID origins are significantly correlated with socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors, and provide a basis for identifying regions where new EIDs are most likely to originate (emerging disease 'hotspots'). They also reveal a substantial risk of wildlife zoonotic and vector-borne EIDs originating at lower latitudes where reporting effort is low. We conclude that global resources to counter disease emergence are poorly allocated, with the majority of the scientific and surveillance effort focused on countries from where the next important EID is least likely to originate.     

The challenge of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases

Infectious diseases have for centuries ranked with wars and famine as major challenges to human progress and survival. They remain among the leading causes of death and disability worldwide. Against a constant background of established infections, epidemics of new and old infectious diseases periodically emerge, greatly magnifying the global burden of infections. Studies of these emerging infections reveal the evolutionary properties of pathogenic microorganisms and the dynamic relationships between microorganisms, their hosts and the environment.     

全球产业转移视角下我国战略性新兴产业培育与成长路径研究

从本世纪开始,中国新兴产业发展迅速,我国的经济结构不断的改善,产业逐步升级,取得了前所未有的成就。然而新兴产业有不确定性、前瞻性等特征,具有很强的政策引导性,在不成熟的发展时期容易引发市场失灵。最新全球产业转移浪潮袭来,建立我国战略性新兴产业迫在眉睫。在解读战略性新兴产业内涵,研究我国战略性新兴产业培育模型的基础上,分析缺陷,借鉴先进国家经验,寻找适合我国战略性新兴产业可持续发展的成功路径。