The Grey Relational Analysis （GRA） of Influence Factors on Exports in China

There are many factors influencing export in China, such as the supply in domestic market, the market openness in China, the demand in overseas market, exchange rate and so on. Since the late of 1990＇s, non-tariff barriers such as antidumping, safeguard measures and technical barriers to trade （TBT） have become the main factors. We analyze the influence factors and the degree of the influence about exports in China by the Grey Relational Analysis （GRA） and put forward countermeasures for enterprises.     

The influence of Disposition Effect on Stock Return in China

This paper introduces the disposition effect into asset pricing process, and sets dynamic equilibrium model on which we can discuss the pattern of risk assets＇ returns. On base of theory results, we use data of China stock market to analyze the influence of disposition effect on stock return. The empirical study result confirms the disposition effect＇s existence in China stock market and it does affect the stock return.     

Fuzzy AHP Analysis of Influence Factors of TBT on Mechanical and Electronic Products

In recent years, technical barriers to trade （TBT） are limiting the export of the mechanical and electronic products in China. Considering the practical export situation of China＇s mechanical and electronic products, we form the fuzzy matrix of factors influencing the export of mechanical and electronic products according to the concept of the triangular fuzzy number. Then we use fuzzy analytic hierarchy process （AHP） to analyze and rate all the factors. We also put forward suggestions on how to keep away and surpass the technical barriers to trade in Chinese mechanical and electronic enterprises.     

An Empirical Research on the Evolution Model of Competitiveness Between Different Life Cycle Stages in Chinese Enterprises

The characteristic of enterprise competitiveness is different between different life cycle stages. In this paper we surveyed the enterprise competitiveness＇s differences in various stages of the life cycle and the evolution model of three aspects of enterprise com- petitiveness as resource, capability and dynamic capability by questionnaire survey. The result shows that there are significant differences between different life cycle stages of en- terprise competitiveness in China. The enterprise competitiveness is stronger and stronger during the periods from the enterprise＇s birth to maturity, while in the enterprise＇s recession period the competitiveness becomes much weaker. The competitiveness＇s constitutive features in each stage are as follows： in the enterprise＇s born stage the enterprise is lack of resources and its competition mainly relies on the ability; in the enterprise＇s growth stage the enterprise＇s resources become richer and are as important as enterprise＇s ability in the constitution of enterprise competitiveness; in the maturity stage the enterprise＇s people, money and material resources all become very rich but the role of capability in enterprise competitiveness begins to decrease; in the enterprise＇s recession stage the en- terprise resources begin to exhaust, and the enterprise＇s competitiveness returns to rely on capability, and in this period the enterprise＇s learning ability, innovation ability and dynamic mechanisms perform worst, which will affect the enterprise＇s revival and lead to the ultimate death of enterprise. These conclusions have great value for reference to the enterprise＇s competitive strategy making for different life cycle stages.     

Coordination game model of co-opetition relationship on cluster supply chains

The research of cluster supply chains is a new direction and a hotspot of the industrial cluster theory. On the condition of the coordination game, the enterprises may be stuck on the non-efficient equilibrium status, which becomes an important problem that must be considered on cluster supply chains. A symmetrical coordination game model is constituted to describe the competition and cooperation relationship of the same-quality manufacturers on cluster supply chains. The methods of the non-cooperation game theory and the evolutionary game theory are respectively used to analyze the model, whose parameters＇ influences under each method are then compared. It can be concluded that the analysis of the evolutionary game theory is more realistic and practical. Finally, three approaches are considered to break away from being path-dependence locked-in non-efficient status during this coordination game evolutionary process, which provide the development of cluster supply chains with an effective forecasting and Pareto optimizing method.     

Novel sensor selection strategy for LPI based on an improved IMMPF tracking method

Sensor platforms with active sensing equipment such as radar may betray their existence, by emitting energy that will be intercepted by enemy surveillance sensors. The radar with less emission has more excellent performance of the low probability of intercept（LPI）. In order to reduce the emission times of the radar, a novel sensor selection strategy based on an improved interacting multiple model particle filter（IMMPF） tracking method is presented. Firstly the IMMPF tracking method is improved by increasing the weight of the particle which is close to the system state and updating the model probability of every particle. Then a sensor selection approach for LPI takes use of both the target＇s maneuverability and the state＇s uncertainty to decide the radar＇s radiation time. The radar will work only when the target＇s maneuverability and the state＇s uncertainty exceed the control capability of the passive sensors. Tracking accuracy and LPI performance are demonstrated in the Monte Carlo simulations.     

Life Cycle of Chinese Public Company and Competence Strategy Research

From start-up, growth, maturity to decline, a company will experience a complicated process, in which the company needs to change its anticipated objective, structure and business model with the variation of environment, in order to survive and gain sustainable development. Based on an enterprise＇s life-cycle theory, this paper makes use of both qualitative and quantitative models to do an empirical study on measurement of the life-cycle of 1135 Chinese public companies from 1991 to 2002, both FoxPro and SAS programs are used to process data. At the end of the paper, the author comes up with a company＇s value goals and relevant competence strategies in every stage of life cycle, with the purpose to promote the Chinese public companies＇ sustainable development.     

The Grid Algorithm of the Development Coefficient and the Combination Coefficient of Background Value in GM（1,1） Model

This article gives the algorithm of the sector in which the development coefficient is, and the steps to simultaneously calculate the development coefficient and combination coefficient of background value. Unifying the development coefficient and the background value＇s coefficient of combination to optimize the model together, avoiding the malpractice to separate the two in traditional method, and avoiding the error brought out by matrix multiplication because of matrix＇s illness and so on in the traditional way, therefore increases the precision of the model.     

Equivalent sample theory of networked control systems and its application

The equivalent sample theory and its application in analysis of networked control system （NCS） are presented. After analyzing NCS＇s scheduling in master-slave mode, the characteristics of time delay and sample are summarized. Looking on master station visiting the slave station as a special sample process, the theory of equivalent sample is presented. And based on it, the stability of a kind of NCS is analyzed. The criterion to determine the upper bound of transmission delay is introduced, which guarantees the stability. Finally, an example with simulation shows the availability and usability of this analysis method.     

Coordination Model Research Based on Command Decision Joint Intension

Command Decision Simulation （CDS） is not only an important and difficult issue in the field of simulation, but also a technique issue to be tackled in the course of collective Modeling and Simulation in Joint Operations Experiment Center. CDS can give support to all kinds of simulation. Using computer to realize the Blue side＇s command deci- sion automatic execution in the operation training simulation system can improve training effect. Using computer to realize the lower level command unit＇s automatic command deci- sion can help to reduce the number of controllers and release them from heavy work. It can also enlarge simulation scale and increase the freedom of the simulation entity especially the command entity, thus enhance the authenticity and credibility of the simulation. Ac- cording to the command decision structure and the Joint Intention Theory, the thesis puts forward the method of making use of Coordination Matrix （CM） to realizing cooperation among the entities in CDS and constructs the calculation sketch of Task Execution, Task Monitoring and Task Replanning. At the same time, the thesis brings forward the CDS structure vision based on Partial Global Planning（PGP）. As CM is an indispensable part of combat simulation, the theory and the method of CDS will become an important part for the theory of Combat Simulation.     

Closed-loop Supply Chain Systems Constructed by 4PL and Performance Evaluation by Using Exergoeconomics

This paper introduces a new concept of 4PL, which is a contractor of the closed-loop supply chain coordination based on the division of community and the outsourcing development. The concept enriches the connotation of 4PL and broadens the thought for 4PL development. Secondly, according to the characteristics of the closed-loop supply chain in the different duration of the collaborative relationship and the dynamic characteristics of the closed-loop supply chaini we apply the fractal theory to establish a fractal system of 4PL coordinating closed-loop supply chain and propose different strategies for 4PL coordinating with different types of closed-loop supply chains in the various links of the system. Moreover, some strategic and proactive thinking are provided for 4PL＇s practices. Then based on the exergoeconomics theory, the closed-loop supply chain is regarded as a huge energy system with the new view, and the sustainability of the closed-loop supply chain system is discussed under the circumstance of exergoeconomics, and then the metric about “system negative environment effect” is introduced to measure the closed-loop supply chain system performance in the point of energy, a case study illustrates our conclusions.     

PERSPECTIVES ON URBAN WATER INFRASTRUCTURE IN CHINA FOR THE 21^ST C0ENTURY： SDMUWEIC MODEL

Based on system dynamics approach, SDMUWEIC model is developed in order to evaluatefuture dynamics of urban water infrastructure development in China. Firstly, this paper presents thebasic structure and characteristics of the model, focusing on water infrastructure‘s dynamicrelationships with population increase, economic development, water resources shortage and waterconservation practices. Secondly, model veracity and robustness tests based on behavior reproductionand uncertainty analyses are illustrated. Thirdly, based on the model, future pattems of China‘s urbanwater infrastructure investment requirements are simulated, and effectiveness of two different policyscenarios are evaluated. Finally, conclusion,; and policy implications are drawn, allowing insights intoChina‘s sustainable water infrastructure policies and managements.     

Strategic Bidding Model for Power Generation Company Based on Repast Platform

： The bidding strategies of power generations in the market are a dynamic and complex problem. It is difficult to analyze and compute with the traditional mathematical methods, which is conspicuous in the middle or long-term transactions. This paper pro- poses a modelity which is the middle or long-term bidding strategy in two-tiers electricity market that is based on the optimal power flow （OPF）. Uncertainties in the outside world are regarded as the agent （Agent） of ＂external environment.＂ Under this conditions, Agent through environment evaluation judges to select viable strategic. Through learning from experiences and opponent＇s behaviors, Agent guides the purpose of the best production. The adaptability and superiority of this model is tested based on Repast with a standard IEEE-5 bus 6 notes test system.     

Using QMC Simulation for American-style Call Option Pricing

The development of the option price theory provides business enterprise a beneficial tool to carry through property risk management, but a variety of option price theories are established on certain environments, and they can not deal with crisis in uncertain environments precisely and quickly, especially when multi-factors change at the same time. Thus, price the option in uncertain environment has been becoming an important direction of research. In this paper, wc take the stock option for example~ using Quasi-Monte Carlo method to price the American-style option, and then provide an example to explain. The powerful assistant decision-making ability of the computer simulation is clearly expressed when we study and analyze the Quasi-Monte Carlo method＇s characteristics.     

Study on a Evaluation Method of Vendorst

Based on the background of vendors＇ selection in supply chain management, the theory of entropy is adopted to filter the criteria. With the combination of data envelopment analysis（DEA） model, it can not only to eliminate the exclusive information of criteria, but it can keep the advantages of DEA model as well, which can conveniently conduct to automatic data collection and going on an objective evaluation of the priority of vendors.     

DESIGN METHODOLOGY OF NETWORKED SOFTWARE EVOLUTION GROWTH BASED ON SOFTWARE PATTERNS

Recently,some new characteristics of complex networks attract the attentions of scientistsin different fields,and lead to many kinds of emerging research directions.So far,most of the researchwork has been limited in discovery of complex network characteristics by structure analysis in large-scalesoftware systems.This paper presents the theoretical basis,design method,algorithms and experiment results ofthe research.It firstly emphasizes the significance of design method of evolution growth for networktopology of Object Oriented(OO)software systems,and argues that.the selection and modulationof network models with various topology characteristics will bring un-ignorable effect on the processof design and implementation of OO software systems.Then we analyze the similar discipline of“negation of negation and compromise”between the evolution of network models with different topologycharacteristics and the development of software modelling methods.According to the analysis of thegrowth features of software patterns,we propose an object-oriented software network evolution growthmethod and its algorithms in succession.In addition,we also propose the parameter systems for OOsoftware system metrics based on complex network theory.Based on these parameter systems,it cananalyze the features of various nodes,links and local-world,modulate the network topology and guidethe software metrics.All these can be helpful to the detailed design,implementation and performanceanalysis.Finally.we focus on the application of the evolution algorithms and demonstrate it by a casestudy.Comparing the results from our early experiments with methodologies in empirical software engi-neering,we believe that the proposed software engineering design method is a computational softwareengineering approach based on complex network theory.We argue that this method should be greatlybeneficial for the design,implementation,modulation and metrics of functionality,structure and per-formance in large-scale OO software complex system.     

Gaussian Mixture Statistics Model Based on Automatic Inspection System Used in ITS

The ITS is becoming more and more important in the economic development of China. But most of the ITS used in Chinese major cities need the human to perform the supervision task. As a result, it consumes too much human resources, and also can not achieve the satisfied supervision performance. Thus, in this paper, we will propose an automatic inspection system based on the Gaussian mixture statistics model to alleviate this kind of problem. The proposed method will utilize a Gaussian Mixture model to model the background, and then use the EM algorithm to update the model＇s coefficients frame by frame to make the model adapt to the changing environment. After successful modeling, we can extract out the foreground blocks from background blocks, and finally trigger the automatic alarming system by calculating the number of foreground blocks. From the experiment results, our proposed method can achieve considerable good results.     

Forecasting China’s Foreign Trade Volume with a Kernel-Based Hybrid Econometric-Ai Ensemble Learning Approach

Due to the complexity of economic system and the interactive effects between all kinds of economic variables and foreign trade, it is not easy to predict foreign trade volume. However, the difficulty in predicting foreign trade volume is usually attributed to the limitation of many conventional forecasting models. To improve the prediction performance, the study proposes a novel kernel-based ensemble learning approach hybridizing econometric models and artificial intelligence （AI） models to predict China＇s foreign trade volume. In the proposed approach, an important econometric model, the co-integration-based error correction vector auto-regression （EC-VAR） model is first used to capture the impacts of all kinds of economic variables on Chinese foreign trade from a multivariate linear analysis perspective. Then an artificial neural network （ANN） based EC-VAR model is used to capture the nonlinear effects of economic variables on foreign trade from the nonlinear viewpoint. Subsequently, for incorporating the effects of irregular events on foreign trade, the text mining and expert＇s judgmental adjustments are also integrated into the nonlinear ANN-based EC-VAR model. Finally, all kinds of economic variables, the outputs of linear and nonlinear EC-VAR models and judgmental adjustment model are used as input variables of a typical kernel-based support vector regression （SVR） for ensemble prediction purpose. For illustration, the proposed kernel-based ensemble learning methodology hybridizing econometric techniques and AI methods is applied to China＇s foreign trade volume prediction problem. Experimental results reveal that the hybrid econometric-AI ensemble learning approach can significantly improve the prediction performance over other linear and nonlinear models listed in this study.     

The Innovation Mode Selection Based on Value Chain Structure and Firm＇s Resource——Study of DTC＇s Wind Power

After reviewing the value chain theory and resource view theory, it is shown that the technological innovation selection of enterprise should keep to relative value structure and technical rules, at the same time takes their own resource and capability as ref- erence. In fact, it synthesizes the viewpoints of positioning school and resource school. A model for the selection path of innovation is founded and in which the theory analysis is deepened by means of example of development of Dongfang Turbine Co., Ltd. （DTC） wind power industry.     

OPTIMAL STARTING PRICE FOR EBAY-LIKE ONLINE AUCTIONS

Reserve price auctions are one of hot research issues in traditional auction theory. Here we study the starting price in an online auction, the counterpart of the public reserve price in a traditional auction. By considering three features of eBay-like online auctions： stochastic entry of bidders （subject to Poisson process）, insertion fee proportional to the starting price, and time discount, we have analyzed the properties of extremum points of the starting price for maximizing the seller＇s expected revenue, and found that, under certain conditions, the optimal starting price should be at the lowest Mlowable level, which is contrary to the results from the classic auction theory and finds its optimality in reality. We have also developed a general extended model of multistage auctions and carried out analysis on its properties. At last, some directions for further research are also put forward.