中国小冰期气候变化特征研究

小冰期是全新世期间距今最近的寒冷气候事件,是一个全球性的现象,对于研究世纪尺度气候变化具有重要意义。总结中国不同区域小冰期气候变化研究成果可以看出,中国大部地区小冰期起始时间为15世纪,结束于19世纪末20世纪初,但在新疆、东北地区小冰期起始时间明显要比其它区域延后近半个世纪甚至一个世纪。小冰期气候变化特征可能主要受到...     

中国东部季风区小冰期干湿变化及影响机制

通过对已发表的中国东部季风区小冰期气候重建结果和全球不同气候模式的对比分析,探讨我国季风区小冰期的气候干湿响应模式.本文认为:中国季风区小冰期的干湿变化受到西伯利亚冷高压的影响,华北和东北受影响最大,而中部和南部季风区变化机制更为复杂;我国季风区的小冰期存在以秦岭淮河(约34°N)为大致分界的北部冷干和南部冷湿模式,这种模式在千年或更长的时间尺度上的存在性,需要更多高分辨率的古气候资料以及模拟数据进行探讨.     

小冰期气候的模拟

利用含有陆面过程的全球大气环流模式AGCM SSiB进行了小冰期气候模拟.共设计了7个模拟试验,分析了模拟的温度和降水结果.主要结论是:(1) 温度:以太阳辐射减少为小冰期降温的假设机制对于季节的降温影响是不同的,夏半年的降温作用要较冬半年明显,同时由于其他反馈作用的存在,冬季温度的变化表现出区域差异.但全年平均温度降温是主要特征.火山灰对冬季降温的作用十分明显,且降温效应小于太阳辐射减小的作用.太阳辐射减少与火山灰光学厚度增加同时作用对大范围的降温有叠加增强效应.(2) 降水:在一定的太阳辐射减少情况下,有利于东亚地区夏季风降水的增加.火山灰光学厚度增加对欧亚大陆大部分地区年降水量未有显著影响.太阳辐射减少和火山灰增加的综合效果使中国东部地区的夏季风降水增加,而南亚地区的降水减少.叠加植被变化后的结果显示,降水变化存在区域差异.     

明清时期中国大陆的气候变化

在我国不同地区通过不同的代用资料恢复的小冰期气候的基础上,分析总结了小冰期我国气候演化的区域分异特征.小冰期气候对中国社会的影响主要表现在：自然灾害加剧对农牧业生产造成危害,加速中国历史时期的人口迁移,对政权变更和政治疆域产生一定的影响.     

近3000年来中国气候变化及对社会经济发展的影响综述

本文对近3000年来气候变化以及重大自然灾害发生的规律性，尤其是近五百年的小冰期的气候特点进行了总结和分析，并对气候变化对社会经济影响的研究成果加以概括，在此基础上提出了自己的观点和设想，以期对人类的生产生活产生一定的指导意义．     

石笋Mg/Ca比值记录的三峡库区小冰期气候变化

利用采自三峡库区水鸣洞石笋（NSM03）的测年数据、微量元素Mg/Ca比值为气候环境指标,并结合石笋δ18O记录分析三峡库区小冰期时期的气候变化。研究结果显示Mg/Ca值,在AD1280开始迅速减小,并持续至AD1300,石笋δ18O记录也显示在AD1280-1300期间明显快速偏重,表明季风迅速减弱,降水持续减少,库区进入小冰期。石笋微量元素比值记录表明,在小冰期时期内部存在明显的降水波动情况,尤其是在AD1400-1650期间,微量元素比值出现大幅度的震荡,表明季风降水在这一时期处于频繁波动期。     

明清小冰期对京杭大运河的影响与应对技术北大核心CSCDCSSCI

明清时期全球气候进入一个相对寒冷的时期,学界称之为明清小冰期。小冰期的低温气候对大运河地区的生态环境、社会生活产生明显影响,小冰期使运河北段结冰期延长,使运河结冰区向南方延伸,对京杭大运河的通航产生消极影响。本文以“明清小冰期”的气候变化为背景,探究“小冰期”下严寒气候对京杭大运河的通航、堤防带来的影响,挖掘古人在恶劣气候环境下治河思想和发明的先进治河技术。     

长江三角洲区域气候变化调适研究及产业结构优化方法

分析了上游人类活动对长江三角洲区域系统的影响，阐述了区域开发与生态环境协调发展的关系及优化原则，并提出了区域经济结构与环境质量的双向耦合优化方法，以研究区域经济，环境、社会的优化调适关系，从而实现可持续发展的战略目标。     

湖北省近46年区域气候变化特征

本文利用了1960~2005年湖北省19个气象站的年降水量和月均温资料,采用了降水距平百分率和气温距平、气温滑动曲线及气温累计曲线分区分析了降水和气温近46年的变化规律。结果表明:在全球普遍增温的背景下,湖北各区出现了不同程度的增温;鄂西山地和鄂东北低山丘陵降水量有减少的趋势,江汉平原和鄂东南低山丘陵降水有增加的趋势。     

气候变化情景下华北地区干热风的时空分布特征

 干热风是影响华北地区冬小麦生长发育及产量形成的重大农业气象灾害之一。本文利用区域气候模式PRECIS生成的A2和B2情景下华北地区的逐日气象数据,分析了2011—2050年共40a的干热风日数及分异规律。结果表明,在PRECIS的预测中,高排放A2情景下的干热风日数为6.5d,呈中西部偏高南北两侧及沿海偏低的趋势。除最南端的个别地方外,大多数区域的干热风日数呈增加趋势,增加最大速度为0.145d/a;中低排放B2情景下干热风日数为6.0d,区域分布趋势与A2情景的类似,也呈中西部偏高南北两侧及沿海偏低的趋势。B2情景下,平原西南一带的干热风呈轻微下降趋势,东北部则呈小幅增加的趋势,但幅度小于A2情景。本研究对未来气候变化情景下干热风农业气象灾害的变化趋势进行了分析,以期为区域未来的防灾减灾工作及相关政策的制定提供参考。     

Palaeoclimate simulation of Little Ice Age

Promotedbytheinternationalresearch projectsofPAGESandCLIVAR ,thestudiesonclimaticandenvironmentalchangesinthepast 2 0 0 0yearshavedrawntheattentionofgeologistsandpalaeoclimato logistsallovertheworld[1,2 ] .AmongthemthecoldeventoftheLittleIceAge (LIA)isparticularlythemostattractiveone[3～ 10 ] ,whichisthenearesttypicalcoldperiodintheglobalrangefrommodernage ,andhadaprofoundimpactuponhumansociety[11] .Addi tionally ,moreknowledgeaboutthecauseoforiginanddynamicmechanismofLIAmayenrichandpe…     

Characteristics of decadal-centennial-scale changes in East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation during the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age and in the present day

Using meteorological observations, proxies of precipitation and temperature, and climate simulation outputs, we synthetically analyzed the regularities of decadal-centennial-scale changes in the summer thermal contrast between land and ocean and summer precipitation over the East Asian monsoon region during the past millennium; compared the basic characteristics of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation and precipitation in the present day, the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP); and explored their links with solar irradiance and global climate change. The results indicate that over the last 150 years, the EASM circulation and precipitation, indicated by the temperature contrast between the East Asian mainland and adjacent oceans, had a significant decadal perturbation and have been weaker during the period of rapid global warming over the past 50 years. On the centennial time scale, the EASM in the MWP was strongest over the past 1000 years. Over the past 1000 years, the EASM was weakest in 1450-1570. When the EASM circulation was weaker, the monsoon rain belt over eastern China was generally located more southward, with there being less precipitation in North China and more precipitation in the Yangtze River valley; therefore, there was an anomalous pattern of southern flood/northern drought. From the 1900s to 1920s, precipitation had a pat- tern opposite to that of the southern flood/northern drought, with there being less precipitation in the Yangtze River valley and more precipitation in North China. Compared with the case for the MWP, there was a longer-time-scale southern flood/northern drought phenomenon in 1400-1600. Moreover, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not synchronously vary with the trend of global temperature. During the last 150 years, although the annual mean surface temperature around the world and in China has increased, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not have strengthening or weakening trends. Over the past 1000 years, the weakest EASM occurred ahead of the lowest Northern Hemispheric temperature and corresponded to the weakest solar irradiance.     

Carbonate verse silicate Sr isotope in lake sediments and its response to Little Ice Age

The ^87Sr/^86Sr ratios of silicate (acid-insoluble,AI,) and carbonate (acid-soluble,AS) of the lake sediments from the Daihai Lake ,Inner Mongolia since the last 500 years are measured respectively ,indicationg that chemical weathering of silicate minerals was in an early stage since the Little Ice Age within the Daihai watershed by combination with mineral constitute,Rb/Sr ratio and CaCO3 content in the sediments,During the Little Ice Age maximum,an evident peak in the ^87 Sr/^86Sr ratios of both silicate and carbonate in sediments suggests that a cold climate condition is unfavorable to dissolving radiogenic stontium from silcate minerals ,Meanwhile,the variation of ^87 Sr/^86Sr ratios of silicate and carbonate also reflects a projected warming climate favorable to intensifying chemical weathering after the Little Ice Age ,Consequently,the ^87 Sr/^86Sr ratio of both silicate and carbonate in inland lake sediment can be used as an effective proxy of the past climate in single watershed.     

鄱阳湖沙山高分辨率沙质地层及其冬季风气候信息记录的初步探究

位于鄱阳湖流域的长江、赣江等河谷、河漫滩的下风方向,由于处于冬季风强烈的东亚季风区,在高频率出现的大风、强风天气情况下,受风力吹蚀作用,常形成区域性的沙山堆积.沙山纵向垄状地形发育,其上风方向,槽、沟与碟形坑等侵蚀地貌发育,其下风方向,纵向沙垄发育.通过对样品的光释光年代测试和粒度频数分析,浅析星子PBL剖面的小冰期风积地层,揭示了小冰期晚期持续近60年左右的一次冷期,这个冷期以突变开始,以渐变结束,其清晰程度在其它地质记录中是不曾发现的.研究发现鄱阳湖沙山纵向沙垄往往具有缓倾斜的前积与侧积,层理(薄层与细层)往往较稳定,对揭露冬季风气候信息具有重要的意义.     

A comparison of the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and 20th century warming simulated by the FGOALS climate system model

To compare differences among the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), Little Ice Age (LIA), and 20th century global warming (20CW), six sets of transient and equilibrium simulations were generated using the climate system model FGOALS_gl. This model was developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The results indicate that MWP warming is evident on a global scale, except for at mid-l...