保险公司破产概率的估计及随机模拟

研究人寿保险的破产模型 ,其中保单到达和索赔发生时刻为相互独立的 Poisson流 ,索赔额服从指数分布 .针对此模型给出了 t时刻之前破产概率的一个上界估计 ,并给出了破产概率的随机模拟计算流程和一个具体例子的数值模拟结果.     

Finite-time ruin probability with NQD dominated varying-tailed claims and NLOD inter-arrival times

In 2007, Chen and Ng investigated infinite-time ruin probability with constant interest force and negatively quadrant dependent and extended regularly varying-tailed claims. Following this work, the authors obtain a weakly asymptotic equivalent formula for the finite-time and infinite-time ruin probability with constant interest force, negatively quadrant dependent, and dominated varying-tailed claims and negatively lower orthant dependent inter-arrival times. In particular, when the claims are consistently varying-tailed, an asymptotic equivalent formula is presented. This research is supported by the National Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 10671139.     

一类非线性系统的有限时间保成本控制

针对一类具有有限能量外部扰动的连续不确定非线性系统,讨论其有限时间保成本控制问题。首先采用Takagi-Sugeno模糊模型对非线性系统进行建模,然后找到一个合适的Lyapunov函数,给出闭环模糊系统有限时间有界的充分条件及有限时间保成本控制器的设计方法,并将控制器的求解转化为一组线性矩阵不等式的可行性问题。研究表明,采用该方法设计的控制器不仅能使闭环不确定模糊系统对所有可允许的外部扰动是有限时间有界的,而且还给出了保成本上界的一个优化值。最后,仿真结果表明该设计方法是有效的。     

State and Output Feedback Finite-time Guaranteed Cost Control of Linear It Stochastic Systems

The problem of guaranteed cost control based on finite-time stability for stochastic system is first investigated in this paper.The motivation of solving this problem arises from an observation that finite/infinite-horizon guaranteed cost control does not consider the transient performance of the closed-loop system,but guaranteed cost control based on finite-time stability involves this practical requirement.In order to explain this problem explicitly,a concept of the stochastic finite-time guaranteed cost control is introduced,and then some new sufficient conditions for the existence of state and output feedback finite-time guaranteed cost controllers are derived,which guarantee finite-time stochastic stability of closed-loop systems and an upper bound of a quadratic cost function.Furthermore,this problem is reduced to a convex optimization problem with matrix inequality constraints and a new solving algorithm is given.Finally,an example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

Optimal investment and proportional reinsurance in the Sparre Andersen model

From the insurer’s point of view,this paper studies the optimal investment and proportional reinsurance in the Sparre Andersen model.Under the criterion of maximizing the adjustment coefficient, the authors obtain the closed form expressions of the optimal strategy and the maximal adjustment coefficient,and derive the explicit expression of the ruin probability or its lower bound when the claim sizes are exponentially distributed.Some numerical examples are presented,which show the impact of model parameters on the optimal values.It can also be seen that the optimal strategy to maximize the adjustment coefficient is sometimes equivalent to those which minimize the ruin probability.     

三维自适应有限时间超螺旋滑模制导律

针对导弹以固定终端攻击角拦截机动目标的制导问题,提出一种三维自适应有限时间超螺旋滑模制导律.首先,利用相对运动质点模型将三维制导问题转换为二阶视线角系统的控制问题.其次,构造一种多变量非奇异的快速终端滑模面,结合改进型超螺旋算法,设计了有限时间超螺旋滑模制导律.同时,通过参数自适应增益实时在线估计目标机动引起的外部扰动...     

Ruin probabilities with pairwise quasi-asymptotically independent and dominatedly-varying tailed claims

This paper considers the nonstandard renewal risk model in which a part of surplus is invested into a Black-Scholes market whose price process is modelled by a geometric Brownian motion, claim sizes form a sequence of not necessarily identically distributed and pairwise quasi-asymptotically independent random variables with dominatedly-varying tails.The authors obtain a weakly asymptotic formula for the finite-time and infinite-time ruin probabilities.In particular,if the claims are identically distributed and consistently-varying tailed,then an asymptotic formula is presented.     

关于“定期人寿保险中的破产模型”的注记

利用风险理论,对定期人寿保险模型进行了研究,得到了定期人寿保险模型的破产概率的表达式.     

索赔到达间隔为几何分布风险模型的破产问题

讨论了索赔到达间隔时间服从几何分布,索赔额分布为一般离散型分布的一类连续时间风险模型的破产问题,先将风险模型纳入PDMP框架,借助于带离散分量的广义生成元的概念得到相关鞅,再利用测度变换理论得到破产概率的一般表达式,有趣的是破产函数不是连续的,而是逐段常值的.     

基于内部竞争的金融企业的最优风险管理

讨论了金融企业的最优管理问题,金融企业的目标是：用于(股东)分红的净收益的期望现值最大,根据Bellman最优性原理,得出了分红情况下的Bellman方程,通过对所得方程的分析给出了解析解和最优控制策略．文章首次提出了最大容忍损失和临界破产概率两个概念,据此给出了破产概率新的解法并得到了企业的临界破产概率和破产原因．     

对我国可转债特别向下修正条款的研究

可转债的特别向下修正条款赋予了发行公司在不同市场股价下调节其股权融资成本的权利,目的是确保债券持有者在债券到期日前尽可能多地实现转股,因此有必要讨论在初始转股价格确定的情况下,应如何设定特别向下修正条款,使债券持有者在到期日前执行转股的概率最大,从而也可以间接地减少回售的可能性.本文根据公司发行可转债的目的,以量化的形式给出了其特别向下修正务款的最优设计方案,通过与真实市场数据的比较可以看出,其结果同实际情况吻合得很好,同时得到了中国大多数可转债的特别向下修正条款在最大化转股概率的同时也可以很好地缓解回售压力的结论.     

保险公司破产模型的进一步研究

引入一个新的概念——标准索赔额，建立一种新的破产模型并给出它的破产概率，从而使得破产概率更具有现实意义，并可作为衡量保险公司金融风险的一个重要指标。     

Optimal dividend strategies in the diffusion model with stochastic return on investments

This paper studies the optimal dividend problem in the diffusion model with stochastic return on investments. The insurance company invests its surplus in a financial market. More specially, the authors consider the case of investment in a Black-Scholes market with risky asset such as stock. The classical problem is to find the optimal dividend payment strategy that maximizes the expectation of discounted dividend payment until ruin. Motivated by the idea of Thonhauser and Albrecher (2007), we take the lifetime of the controlled risk process into account, that is, the value function considers both the expectation of discounted dividend payment and the time value of ruin. The authors conclude that the optimal dividend strategy is a barrier strategy for the unbounded dividend payment case and is of threshold type for the bounded dividend payment case.     

保险公司在二项风险模型下破产概率的渐进估计

主要研究完全离散二项风险模型．在条件系数存在的情况下，得到在破产发生的情况下罚金期望所满足的瑕疵离散更新方程度其渐进解，由此得到了保险公司当初始资本为0时破产概率的显示解和当初始资本μ→∞时的渐进解和破产时刺所发生的赤字分布当初始资本为0时的显示解和当初始资本μ→∞时的渐进解，并在当陪付服从几何分布和赌徒分布的情形下得到了上述特征量的具体结果。     

基于随机型网络演算的AFDX端端时延分析方法

数据传输的及时性保障是航空电子全双工交换式以太网（avionics full duplex switched Ethernet,AFDX）中最主要的挑战。不同业务流有不同的实时性需求,因而提出一种高低优先级调度策略,通过随机型网络演算方法,推导出在某一概率下业务流端端时延的上界值。最后,在Simevent中搭建一个AFDX仿真案例,所提方法计算得到的时延上界与仿真结果相匹配,比传统计算方法更准确有效,同时也表明高低优先级调度有助于提高紧急数据的及时性。     

Asymptotics for ruin probabilities of two kinds of dependent risk models with NLOD inter-arrival times

This paper establishes some asymptotic formulas for the infinite-time ruin probabilities of two kinds of dependent risk models. One risk model considers the claim sizes as a modulated process, and the other deals with negatively upper orthant dependent claim sizes. In the two models, the inter-arrival times are both assumed to be negatively lower orthant dependent.     

两类相关索赔模型下破产概率的若干结果

研究了两类相关风险模型中生存概率φ(u)的问题,将其中一个风险由一个复合Poisson过程推广到了广义复合Poisson过程,求出了索赔额分布为指数分布时生存概率的明确表达式,并研究了此模型下索赔额分布重尾时,φ(u)的一个尾等价关系.     

瑞利衰落信道下多天线系统格形码调制性能分析

下一代高速无线数据传输大多采用多输入多输出(MIMO)信道传输。采用格形码TCM调制,在瑞利衰落信道下,可改善误码性能,用公式法导出在瑞利衰落信道下,MIMO格形码调制系统的误码率性能界限,有利于采用实际方案的选择。采用平均最小自由欧氏距离估计误比特率,得到误比特率的封闭式表示,通过计算机模拟,在高信噪比情况下,这种估计方法与实际情况非常接近。     

Complete monotonicity of the probability of ruin and de Finetti’s dividend problem

This paper studies the complete monotonicity of the probability of ruinψin the the classical risk model and the classical risk model that is perturbed by a diffusion.As a byproduct,the authors give an alternative proof to a result on the optimal dividend problem due to LoefFen(2008).     

我国企业债券市场与股票市场运行效率比较——基于夏普比率和BDSS模型的分析

采用夏普比率测度了我国企业债券市场与股票市场在风险性与盈利性的综合表现,结果表明:在股市上涨期间,企业债券市场与股票市场的夏普比率关系不确定;在股市下跌期间以及在一个较长的时间里,企业债券市场的夏普比率高于股票市场的夏普比率。同时,本文根据BDSS模型考虑了我国企业债券市场与股票市场流动性风险,结果表明在各种市场条件下,企业债券市场比股票市场的流动性风险都要小。文章最后针对比例因子a的敏感性进行分析,得到稳健结论。从这两个模型得到的结论说明在安全性、盈利性和流动性三个方面我国企业债券市场比股票市场运行良好。这一结论不同于之前人们对我国企业债券市场运行效率低下的普遍看法。