不同平均强度热盐环流的年代际波动特征

基于美国国家大气研究中心的CCSM3(community climate system model version 3)模式,对淡水扰动试验下不同平均强度热盐环流(thermohline circulation,THC)的年代际波动特征及北大西洋气候响应特征进行研究。结果表明,百年以上尺度的THC变化对其年代际尺度波动产生显著影响,高平均强度下THC的年代际波动周期更长、更显著。对不同平均强度下北大西洋海、气要素与THC在年代际尺度上的相关分布进行分析,发现在高平均强度下,THC与海表温度(sea surface temperature,SST)的相关呈现为经向三核型分布,与海平面气压(sea lever pressure,SLP)的相关呈现为类NAO(North Atlantic oscillation)分布,而在低平均强度下,则不存在这2种模态分布;同时,在不同平均强度下,THC与各要素间的相关程度也不同,高平均强度下相关程度更高。     

Interdecadal variation of tropical cyclone activity in association with summer monsoon, sea surface temperature over the western North Pacific

Based on geographic division over the western North Pacific (WNP), the interdecadal relationships between summer monsoon, sea surface temperature (SST) and tropical cyclones activity (including number, track and intensity) are examined. In the past several decades, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and tropical westerlies contribute to the interdecadal variation of TC number in the northwest and southeast of WNP respectively. The increased TC occurrence density to the east of Philippines related to TC track appears during the 1990s, in terms of both steer flow induced by WPSH and genesis location. From the interdecadal viewpoint, the tendency of TC intensity, measured by averaged accumulated cyclone energy, does well agree with that of SST, implying that SST plays an important role in TC intensity. Supported by Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest (Grant No. GYHY200806009) and National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2009CB421505)     

Impacts of external forcing on the 20th century global warming

The impacts of external forcing,including natural and anthropogenic,on the 20th century global warming were assessed with the use of the Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP/LASG Version 1.1.0,fol-lowing the standard coordinated experiment design of the Climate Variability and Predictability(CLIVAR) International Climate of the Twentieth Century Project(C20C) ,Phase II. The results indicate that external forcing plays an important role in the evolution of the land surface air temperature on in-terannual,decadal,and interdecadal time scales,and contributes greatly to the global warming in the following two periods:the early twentieth century between the 1910s and the 1940s and the late twen-tieth century after the 1970s. External forcing also has strong impact on the regional temperature change during the two warming periods except for parts of the Eurasia and the North America conti-nents. In the cooling period,however,the impact of internal variability is dominant.     

四川南部秋季降水变化及相应大气环流异常特征

利用1961—2014年全国756站的降水资料和美国NOAA-CIRES的20CR月平均再分析资料,研究了四川南部秋季(9～11月)降水变化及其相应的大气环流异常特征。结果表明,四川南部秋季降水具有显著的年际和年代际变化特征,其年际周期以2～4 a和准6 a为主,年代际周期以9～15 a为主。它与黄淮流域同期降水存在显著的负相关关系,与四川南部秋季降水关系密切的大气环流结构是北大西洋—俄罗斯西部—蒙古西部—东亚(NRMA)遥相关波列,NRMA遥相关波列在东亚地区激发出一个气旋性环流,与此同时,中南半岛西侧存在一个反气旋性环流,以上环流型有利于北方冷空气和来自孟加拉湾的暖湿气流在四川南部地区汇合,从而容易导致该地区降水的产生,反之亦然。     

Decadal change of the East Asian summer monsoon and its related surface temperature in Asia-Pacific during 1880–2004

The East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） and its related change of surface temperature in the past century were not clearly ad- dressed due to absence of atmospheric reanalysis data before 1948. On the benchmark of station-observed sea level pressure （SLP） in China, we utilized multiple SLP datasets and evaluated their qualities in measuring the SLP-based EASM index （EASMI）. It is found that the EASMI based on the SLP of the Hadley center version 2 （HadSLP2） has shown the best performance on the inter- annual and decadal time scales. Instead of showing a linear weakening trend pointed out by the previous study, the EASMI has likely exhibited the decadal variability, characterized by weakened trends during 1880-1906, 1921-1936, and 1960-2004, and with enhanced trends during 1906-1921 and 1936-1960, respectively. Corresponding to the weakened and enhanced periods of EASMI since the 1920s, the surface air temperature （SAT） index （SATI） averaged in eastern China has likely shown a warming and a cooling trend, respectively. However, the decadal abrupt transitions between the two indices do not occur concurrently, which results in a weak correlation between two indices on the decadal time scale. Further analysis indicates that there are four key regions where the SAT is significantly correlated with the EASMI, suggesting the joint impact of surface temperature in Asia-Pacific on the EASM during 1880-2004. In which, the decadal change of SAT near the Lake Baikal plays an important role in the linear trends of the EASM before and after 1960.     

Rainfall spectrum change in North China and its possible mechanism

The seasonal distribution of the rainfall in North China has changed greatly since 1977, with more rainfall in spring and less in July, August, and September (JAS). Wavelet analysis showed that the JAS rainfall underwent an abrupt spectrum change in the mid-1960s. Its interannual variability has declined while the interdecadal component has become the dominant mode, associated with the dry climate. Correlation analysis found that the JAS rainfall is negatively correlated with the departures of the 500 hPa geopotential height significantly over the northwest and southwest of China, and positively correlated with the suer monsoon over eastern China. Therefore, the interdecadal ascending of the air pressure in northwestern China and the monsoon decaying over East Asia in the past 20 years may be the two major causes of North China drought.     

The onset and advance of the Asian summer monsoon

The transition from the winter monsoon to summer monsoon is characterized by the abrupt change of the atmospheric circulation. Although many studies on the intraseasonal variation of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) have been made, there are controversial v…     

The strengthening East Asia summer monsoon since the early 1990s

Previous studies have documented a weakening tendency of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) since the end of the 1970s. In this study, we report that the EASM has been recovering since the early 1990s, although its strength is still less than in previous decades (averaged over the period 1965-1980). Following the recovery of the EASM, there has been a tendency in the last decade toward northward-moving rainbands and excessive rainfall in the Huaihe River valley (110°-120°E, 30°-35°N). There is evidence suggesting that the strengthening EASM since the early 1990s is linked to interdecadal change of land-sea thermal contrast.     

Thermal difference between the Tibetan Plateau and the plain east of Plateau and its influence on rainfall over China in the summer

There exist thermal differences between the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the plain east of the TP, and between land and sea in East Asia. The influence of the land-sea thermal contrast on the precipitation in East China has been widely investigated; however, a few studies have paid attention to the role of the TP-plain thermal difference. Thus, using the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data and the observation data of China from 1951 t...     

Multiscale characteristics of the rainy season rainfall and interdecadal decaying of summer monsoon in North China

This paper focuses on the rainfall spectrum and its evolution of North China in rainy season with summer monsoon decaying in interdecadal time scale. The interannual component of the rainfall is the dominant part, accounting for 85% of the total variance, and has been changed significantly during the last 30 years. According to wavelet analysis its 5a periodic spectrum suddenly disappeared in the late 1960s, and its biennial oscillation gradually become weaker and weaker since 1970, accompanied by the summer monsoon decaying. Contrarily, the interdecadal component is principal in the summer monsoon over North China and is very similar to the counterpart of the rainfall. Their interdecadal parts are significantly correlated, and the correlation coefficient is nearly equal to the one of the original sequences.Besides, the dry and wet climate alternated with the monsoon abrupt changes in the 1960s and the 1970s over East Asia, apart from North China, climate drifted from a light drought to a severe drought during the past 30 years.     

宋代的西藏美术

宋代（10世纪中叶至13世纪中期）是藏传佛教各教派创建、发展的重要时期,这个时期的美术活动,因恰逢佛教在雪域复兴的黄金时期,从而得到了很大的推动,也因此迎来了西藏艺术史上最为百花齐放、多姿多彩的瑰丽时期。而这一时期所形成的艺术范式、艺术理念、艺术精神,更对后来的藏传佛教艺术产生了深刻的影响。宋代西藏美术的许多特点对后来的西藏艺术有直接的奠基作用。     

Meiyu in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River since 1736

＂Yu Xue Fen Cun＂ records during the Qing Dynasty are used to identify the starting and ending dates of Meiyu at the period of 1736-1911. These results, along with the instrumental meteorological records, are used to reconstruct the series of length and precipitation of Meiyu during 1736-2000 over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The characteristics of Meiyu are analyzed since 1736. Moreover, the strength of East Asian Summer Monsoon and locations of rainband are discussed, based on the relationship between the length of Meiyu and the Index of East Asian Summer Monsoon. It is found that the starting and ending dates and the length of Meiyu have significant interannual and interdecadal variations. Apart from 7-8 years, 20-30 years and 40 years cycles for the lengths of Meiyu, the centennial oscillation is also presented. The length of Meiyu, monsoon rainband movement over eastern China, and the strength of East Asian Summer Monsoon （EASM） have a very good correlation, which can be expressed in the following： during the periods of 1736-1770, 1821-1870 and 1921-1970, the EASM was stronger, and the monsoon rainband was located in North China and South China easily, corresponding to the decreased length of Meiyu. Whereas during the periods of 1771-1820, 1871-1920 and 1971-2000, the EASM was weaker and monsoon rainband usually stopped at the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, corresponding to the increased length of Meiyu.     

用区域气候模式对1951——2000年我国夏季降水的模拟

为了检验区域气候模式对我国夏季降水的模拟能力,利用高分辨率区域气候模式RegCM3对1951?2000年的夏季中国区域降水进行了数值模拟。初始值及边界值取自美国国家环境预测中心(NCEP)和国家大气中心(NCAR)的全球再分析资料。每年的模拟积分时段从5月1日开始到9月1日结束, 但是每年降水量的分析只使用6?8月的模拟结果。主要结论如下: (1) 从全国平均总降水量看,该区域模式的模拟结果与观测比较接近,明显好于NCEP的降水资料,但模拟的降水量空间分布不理想; (2) 从降水量距平的空间分布来看,该区域模式对我国的东北夏季降水的模拟结果明显好于全国其他地区,黄河中下游最差; (3) 从时间分布上看,该模式模拟能力呈现出明显的年代际变化,20世纪60年代及90年代模拟较好,也比较稳定,70年代及80年代的模拟能力呈大起大落不稳定状态; (4) 模式未能模拟出70—80年代我国降水偏少的观测事实,说明模式对我国夏季降水年代际变率的模拟能力不足。     

"永恒的文献宝藏"——记19世纪末20世纪初美国中国研究学院史料的再现

19世纪末20世纪初在西方传教运动复兴之时，中国北京出现了一所美国的中国研究学院，经过三十年的发展这所学校成长为世界中国研究中心。它的沿革历史记录了二战前后的中关关系、中日关系以及整个远东局势的发展轨迹，它的成长体现了美国中国学从传教士汉学向学院式现代中国学转变的过程。     

成长的艰难——美国非洲裔作家成长小说中儿童成长的现实

从严格意义上讲,20世纪中期兴起的美国非洲裔文学思潮里,几乎没有专门的儿童文学作家。美国非洲裔作家们似乎也注意到这一点,因此,在他们的小说里,或多或少地都提到了美国黑人儿童成长所面临的问题,即面对残酷的种族歧视和压迫的现实,美国非洲裔儿童的成长之路异常艰难。     

18世纪末到20世纪中叶苗族从贵州等地向滇东南和中印半岛北部的迁徙

18世纪末以后,苗族开始从贵州等地向滇东南和中印半岛北部大量迁徙,这种迁徙既有因战乱如乾嘉苗族起事、“成同变乱”而引起的短时期内的较大规模迁徙,也有因经济因素如玉米的引进和推广、寻找可耕地等引发的自发零散但却持续不断的迁徙。经过一个半多世纪的持续迁徙,到20世纪中叶时,苗族最终成为滇东南和中印半岛北部分布范围非常广阔、人口众多的民族。     

“现代专门杂志”与城市脉动的关系——以美国《纽约客》为例

20世纪杂志发展最令人瞩目的特征之一是趋向专门化的浪潮,与之相对应的是读者细分的要求.这股浪潮最早兴起于20世纪初,六七十年代出现了越来越多的、以特定读者为对象的专门化杂志,而自八九十年代以来,杂志更是以达到特定的人口群体为目的,并随时代的变化而赋予"专门杂志"以新的意义.现以美国"现代专门杂志"中的第一批成功者之一--《纽约客》--为例,联系历史与当代,侧重几个方面探讨专门杂志与城市脉动之间的关系.     

近50年吉林省干湿指数时空分布特征分析

采用桑斯维特在气候分类法中定义的干湿指数,结合趋势系数分析、小波分析、M-K检验等统计方法,对吉林省近50年气候干湿变化状况进行了分析,结果表明:吉林省表现出4次相对的干湿交替,即20世纪60年代的偏湿润期,70年代的相对干旱期,80年代的偏湿润期,90年代中后期以后的偏干旱期;存在10～15 a和3a的变化周期,突变发生在1979- 1980年;在空间变化上表现出湿润区范围不断扩大,半湿润区显著缩小,半干旱区范围略有扩大的特点.     

“永恒的文献宝藏”——记19世纪末20世纪初美国中国研究学院史料的再现

19世纪末20世纪初在西方传教运动复兴之时，中国北京出现了一所美国的中国研究学院，经过三十年的发展这所学校成长为世界中国研究中心。它的沿革历史记录了二战前后的中关关系、中日关系以及整个远东局势的发展轨迹，它的成长体现了美国中国学从传教士汉学向学院式现代中国学转变的过程。     

A comparison of the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and 20th century warming simulated by the FGOALS climate system model

To compare differences among the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), Little Ice Age (LIA), and 20th century global warming (20CW), six sets of transient and equilibrium simulations were generated using the climate system model FGOALS_gl. This model was developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The results indicate that MWP warming is evident on a global scale, except for at mid-latitudes of the North Pacific. However, the magnitude of the warming is weaker than that in the 20th century. The warming in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere is stronger than that in the Southern Hemisphere. The LIA cooling is also evident on a global scale, with a strong cooling over the high Eurasian continent, while the cooling center is over the Arctic domain. Both the MWP and the 20CW experiments exhibit the strongest warming anomalies in the middle troposphere around 200?C300 hPa, but the cooling center of the LIA experiment is seen in the polar surface of the Northern Hemisphere. A comparison of model simulation against the reconstruction indicates that model??s performance in simulating the surface air temperature changes during the warm periods is better than that during the cold periods. The consistencies between model and reconstruction in lower latitudes are better than those in high latitudes. Comparison of the inter-annual variability mode of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall during the MWP, LIA and 20CW reveals a similar rainfall anomalies pattern. However, the time spectra of the principal component during the three typical periods of the last millennium are different, and the quasi-biannual oscillation is more evident during the two warm periods. At a centennial time scale, the external mode of the EASM variability driven by the changes of effective solar radiation is determined by the changes of large scale land-sea thermal contrast. The rainfall anomalies over the east of 110°E exhibit a meridional homogeneous change pattern, which is different from the meridional out-of-phase change of rainfall anomalies associated with the internal mode.