太白山气候资源与旅游的Fuzzy评价研究

旅游气候资源由多个气象要素决定.利用模糊分析法进行多层次Fuzzy理论综合评判模型,进一步研究旅游气候资源评价的方法,并对太白山气候资源与旅游适宜度进行了初步评价.     

Regional insolation forcing of late Quaternary climate change in the Southern Hemisphere

In agreement with the Milankovitch orbital forcing hypothesis it is often assumed that glacial-interglacial climate transitions occurred synchronously in the Northern and Southern hemispheres of the Earth. It is difficult to test this assumption, because of the paucity of long, continuous climate records from the Southern Hemisphere that have not been dated by tuning them to the presumed Northern Hemisphere signals. Here we present an independently dated terrestrial pollen record from a peat bog on South Island, New Zealand, to investigate global and local factors in Southern Hemisphere climate changes during the last two glacial-interglacial cycles. Our record largely corroborates the Milankovitch model of orbital forcing but also exhibits some differences: in particular, an earlier onset and longer duration of the Last Glacial Maximum. Our results suggest that Southern Hemisphere insolation may have been responsible for these differences in timing. Our findings question the validity of applying orbital tuning to Southern Hemisphere records and suggest an alternative mechanism to the bipolar seesaw for generating interhemispheric asynchrony in climate change.     

近35年深圳市气候变化与城市化发展关联性研究

依据深圳市气象站19792013年的气象观测资料和历年统计年鉴,利用线性分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验和主成分分析、拟合曲线等数理统计方法,分析了深圳市近35年的气候变化规律及其与城市化发展的关联性. 结果显示：(1)近35年深圳市气候整体呈现变干变暖的趋势,平均气温升温速率为0.338 ℃/10a,平均最低气温的升温速率远大于平均最高气温的升温速率(0.573 ℃/10a 0.145 ℃/10a),以1986年为突变点,升温趋势加剧,近几年出现减缓态势;平均相对湿度的下降速率为每10年下降1.97%,2000年以来比80年代下降了约5%,且降水量和年日照百分比呈不规律的波动变化;(2)深圳市城市化主要通过人口、房屋建筑和农业发展对平均最高温度产生影响,综合贡献率接近50%;城市化发展对平均气温和平均最低气温的升高有极显著的加剧作用,构建的城市化综合指标U1、U2的升温贡献率分别达到了63%和78%. 以建筑业发展、农作物面积等为主要指标构建的综合指标U4对平均相对湿度的降低贡献率达到60%,需要注意城市发展中的干岛效应问题.     

Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change

The mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, Coleoptera: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) is a native insect of the pine forests of western North America, and its populations periodically erupt into large-scale outbreaks. During outbreaks, the resulting widespread tree mortality reduces forest carbon uptake and increases future emissions from the decay of killed trees. The impacts of insects on forest carbon dynamics, however, are generally ignored in large-scale modelling analyses. The current outbreak in British Columbia, Canada, is an order of magnitude larger in area and severity than all previous recorded outbreaks. Here we estimate that the cumulative impact of the beetle outbreak in the affected region during 2000-2020 will be 270 megatonnes (Mt) carbon (or 36 g carbon m(-2) yr(-1) on average over 374,000 km2 of forest). This impact converted the forest from a small net carbon sink to a large net carbon source both during and immediately after the outbreak. In the worst year, the impacts resulting from the beetle outbreak in British Columbia were equivalent to approximately 75% of the average annual direct forest fire emissions from all of Canada during 1959-1999. The resulting reduction in net primary production was of similar magnitude to increases observed during the 1980s and 1990s as a result of global change. Climate change has contributed to the unprecedented extent and severity of this outbreak. Insect outbreaks such as this represent an important mechanism by which climate change may undermine the ability of northern forests to take up and store atmospheric carbon, and such impacts should be accounted for in large-scale modelling analyses.     

构造背景与中国北方荒漠化的形成、发展与演化

目的 对中国西部内陆干旱盆地及周缘绿洲、中部高原荒漠化区的阿拉善高原、内蒙古高原、鄂尔多斯高原、黄土高原以及东部呼伦贝尔高原进行荒漠化调查,分析地质构造背景对荒漠化的影响.方法 在广泛开展野外调研的基础上,分析区域环境与构造背景的内在联系.结果 青藏高原隆起对中国气候环境产生重要影响,并奠定了第四纪环境的空间格局.中国北方日益干旱,三北地区荒漠化的发生、发展与演化基于这样的大地质背景,并自始至终受大地质背景控制;荒漠化是岩石圈、水圈、大气圈、生物圈(包括人类)相互作用的结果.结论 荒漠化区域的地质构造背景、岩土性质、地貌特征、水文地质状况、地表温度、湿度、空气动力学条件以及生物群落等等,与荒漠化形成、发展都有着密切的关系.人类活动始终是在特定的地质背景中进行,人类在荒漠化过程中扮演催化剂的角色.     

The tectonic uplift of the Hua Shan in the Cenozoic

Six granite samples were collected from six difference elevation locations at the Hua Shan in a main ridge of the Qinling Mountain. Apatite and zircon separated from these six samples were dated by the fission track technique. An assessment of the Cenozoic uplift or exhumation rate was obtained from the altitude difference of sampling samples dated by fission track, and from the difference of fission track dates of both apatite and zircon for a sample. The preliminary results suggest that the beginning of uplift of the Hua Shan was as early as 68.2 MaBP and the uplift rates for different periods are 0.02–0.19 mm/a (from the elevation difference) or 0.12–0.16 mm/a (from two mineral fission track dates). The average uplift rate is 0.12 mm/a (from the elevation difference) or 0.14 mm/a (from two mineral fission track dates). The uplift of the Hua Shan might accelerate since (17.8±2.0) MaBP, and the average uplift rate is about 0.19 mm/a.     

鄂尔多斯盆地南缘渭北隆起中新生代构造抬升及演化

应用磷灰石裂变径迹定年技术研究鄂尔多斯盆地南缘渭北隆起抬升期次及演化过程.对渭北隆起不同地区磷灰石裂变径迹年龄分析结果表明,渭北地区主要经历了3期主要抬升过程,主要发生在146～ 125 Ma,107～83.8 Ma和40 ～ 27.3 Ma.结合前人对该地区原型盆地、构造变形特征等研究成果认为,早白垩世末之前渭北隆起应为大型鄂尔多斯盆地的一部分,整体以沉降沉积为主,此时尚未隆起;渭北隆起的形成和演化可分为晚白垩世整体抬升阶段和始新世～渐新世以来的断块翘倾两大阶段.晚白垩世渭北地区整体抬升主要受控于秦岭造山带中晚燕山期的抬升过程;始新世-渐新世以来的断块敲倾作用阶段,与秦岭造山带始新世以来的快速隆升,以及渭河盆地新生代的快速断陷作用有关.     

The relationship between the thermohaline circulation and climate variability

The long-term integration with the Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model of the State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences has been used in the investigations on the relationship between the thermohaline circulation and climate variability. The results show that the strength of the North Atlantic Thermohaline circulation (THC) is negatively correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Based on this kind of relationship, and also the instrument-measured climate record such as air pressure and sea surface temperature, the activity of the thermohaline circulation during the 20th century has been evaluated. The inferred variations of the strength of the THC is that, during two multi-decadal periods of 1867–1903 and 1934–1972, the THC is estimated to have been running stronger, whereas during the two periods of 1904–1933 and 1973–1994, it appears to have been weaker.     

宁夏贺兰山蛾类区系调查及多样性分析

通过调查,共获得贺兰山自然保护区蛾类标本7 000余号.已鉴定的种类为15科144属186种,夜蛾科的种数最多,其次是螟蛾科、尺蛾科和卷蛾科.区系分析结果表明,贺兰山自然保护区蛾类以古北种为主,表明其具有很强的古北区特征,广布种次之,东洋种最少.根据中国地理区划,贺兰山蛾类除了自身的蒙新区特点外,与东北区、华北区联系最为密切.4个生境的多样性指数H′由大到小依次为山麓荒漠化草原、山前草原化荒漠、针叶林层、山地草原;均匀度指数J′由大到小依次为山麓荒漠化草原、山地草原、山前草原化荒漠、针叶林层;优势集中性指数C由大到小依次为山地草原、山麓荒漠化草原、针叶林层、山前草原化荒漠.     

贺兰山地区大气中的重金属元素的观测分析

分析了大气背景和沙尘天气下的８ 种重金属元素浓度和降水中的６ 种重金属元素浓度,结果表明,沙尘天气重金属元素浓度是背景值的３ ．４３～６ ．３０ 倍,降水中６ 种重金属元素浓度的地理分布存在不均匀性．     

安全认识与行为关系研究

旨在分析个人安全认识与其具体行为表现的关系.试验时雇佣行为观察员对样本员工工作期间的行为连续观测和记录,用安全行为指数SI(safety index)反映观察结果;采用所设计的安全认识测量量表SCSS(safety cliunate survey SCalle)调查样本员工的安全认识,用个人安全认识指数GSCI(General Safety climate Index)反映调查结果.通过在某矿山企业135个样本的安全认识调查和行为观察试验,结果表明:个人的安全认识与行为在不同阶段有不同程度的联系,当安全认识较低;通过提高安全认识可明显改善其行为,但对安全文化建设已经较好的企业,建议考虑更直接的行为纠正方法来预防员工的不安全行为.研究也发现安全认识与安全行为的联系并不是直接的决定关系,两者之间还存在工作压力、安全知识等中间因素,但中间因素的构成与作用尚需进一步研究明确.图2,表3,参16.     

宁夏贺兰山拟步甲科的区系组成与生态分布

为了研究宁夏贺兰山国家自然保护区的生物多样性,于2007-2009年在宁夏贺兰山进行了系统的拟步甲科标本采集．结果表明,共获得标本4000余只,经分类鉴定出50种,隶属4亚科20属,其中,拟步甲亚科种类最多,计11属24种,占总种数的48％,漠甲亚科次之,计7属20种,占总种数的40％．从世界动物区系的构成来看,以中亚亚界成分为主;从中国动物区系的构成来看,贺兰山拟步甲科昆虫区系具有明显的蒙新区系特征,并且与华北区区系较为密切,与青藏区系次之,7个区系分布型中以蒙新区所占比例最高,共有32种,占64％,其次为蒙新区＋华北区区系分布型,计10种,占20％．根据拟步甲科生态分布特征,并结合植被、地形、地貌,运用等级聚类分析将50种拟步甲科划分为4个生态种组;拟步甲科随贺兰山垂直植被带分布表现差异,山麓荒漠草原带和疏林草原带是主要的分布带,喜阴湿的种类主要分布在针阔混交林带以上．     

Mid-Holocene climate change in North China, and the effect on cultural development

In this study, to reconstruct the paleoclimatic history, pollen and oxygen isotope were analyzed on the 160 samples of a 2.7 m peat core from Taishizhuang, Huailai County, Hebei Province. Combining our data with other information of climate history and archaeology from this area, we found that there is a close linkage between cultural development and the mid-Holocene (6000-3000 cal. aBP) environment changes. The main results and conclusions are presented as the following: The climate during 5678-5400 cal. aBP was unstable and in general colder and drier than today. From 5400 to 4800 cal. aBP the climate was much warmer and wetter than before. The climate during 4800-4300 cal. aBP was persistently cold, with an exceptional cold event occurring at 4600-4300 cal. aBP. This cold event was recorded at several other localities in Northern China even the Northern Hemisphere and played an important role in the cultural development. After the cold event, there was a return to warmer conditions between 4200 and 3300 cal.aBP.     

贺兰山的灰榆林与灰榆疏林草原——以贺兰山东坡为例

本文从植物区系、群落的结构和动态、生境、在山地植被垂直带系列中的位序以及改造利用等方面论述了贺兰山灰榆疏林草原的主要特征,从而认为过去所称大面积的“灰榆疏林”除在个别地点分布的属于落叶阔叶林外,绝大部分应是一类由草原植物与散生小乔木结合形成的温带山地稀树草原,但它不同于热带稀树草原,故称为疏林草原。在贺兰山灰榆疏林草原是一类独特的原生植被类型,占据着一个独立的植被垂直带。     

宁夏贺兰山保护动物的研究

对宁夏贺兰山地区分布的２９ 种国家重点保护野生动物进行了初步研究．研究表明,该区分布国家Ｉ级保护动物４ 种,Ⅱ级保护动物２５ 种,其中列入国际红皮书（Ｒｅｄ Ｄａｔａ Ｂｏｏｋ） 的有１ 种,列入濒危动植物种国际贸易公约（ＣＩＴＥＳ） 的１０ 种,１ 种保护动物灭绝,６ 种濒危．探讨了野生动物的保护对策,为贺兰山地区的动物研究积累了资料．     

贺兰山岩画的保护与旅游资源开发初探

在概述贺兰山岩画保护与旅游资源开发现状的基础上，探讨了岩画资源开发利用的基本原则，提出了岩画保护与旅游资源开发利用的基本对策。     

Emerged fossil corals on the coast of northwestern Hainan Island, China: Implications for mid-Holocene sea level change and tectonic uplift

Fossil corals are widespread on the coast of northwestern Hainan Island, China. Most of these corals are exposed during low tide levels, indicating that a higher sea level may have existed during their life time. The radiocarbon data introduced by this paper in combination with those from other sources show that the corals were alive mainly during the midto late-Holocene. Mid-Holocene sea levels 1-3 m higher than the present level were confirmed for adjacent coasts; however, the emerged corals on the investigated coast are not necessarily indicators of a higher eustatic sea level. They do predict relative sea levels of 1.5-3.4 m when using 1 m below the tidal datum as the upper limit of coral growth. However, using the Mean Lower Low Water as the coral’s upper growth limit, the relative sea level on the non-volcanic coast was almost as high as the present level, whereas that on the volcanic coast was 0.4-2.0 m higher than present. Therefore, the exposure of these dead coral heads and their discrepancy in elevation may be the result of tectonic uplift caused by volcanic activities. From these results, the highest sea level of upward coral growth must be defined first when using fossil corals to reconstruct past sea levels. Meanwhile, vertical tectonics have to be taken into account as a significant factor when conducting high-resolution sea level reconstruction, although the South China coast is located in a "tectonically stable" region.     

全球变化与自然灾害的相互关系

以“区域灾害系统论”和“地球圈层系统理论”为理论依据,以比利时灾后流行病研究中心的紧急灾难数据库（EM—DAT）和德国慕尼黑再保险公司灾害数据库（NatCat）作为主要的数据来源,在重点对本世纪以来的全球变化进程与自然灾害趋势进行初步分析的基础上,对全球变化与自然灾害两者之间的相互关系进行了探讨,结果表明全球变化与自然灾害之间通过动态互馈机制彼此联系、相互作用．最后,本文提出了全球变化背景下应对自然灾害的科学防灾减灾措施。     

渤南凹陷构造演化与超压形成及演化过程的关系分析

盆地的构造演化通过构造活动、沉积体系控制了异常压力的发育,同时异常压力的存在对后期形成的断层有影响.本文通过双元孔隙度演化函数建模对渤南凹陷的古压力进行了恢复,研究表明,渤南凹陷的异常压力主要在裂陷期末开始发育,在坳陷期达到最大.同时由于异常压力的存在引起了流体压裂,对南部缓坡带盆倾断层的形成具有诱导作用.