公众参与重大工程项目决策稳评的演化机理

本文基于自组织理论,分析公众参与系统的要素,运用ISM模型剖析系统内部子系统间的关系,指出参与主体对参与价值的追求及参与主体成熟度的不断提高,促使公众参与系统内部产生正向协同效应,引导系统由低阶有序向高阶有序发展。在公众参与系统自组织过程中,政府应采取措施,培育和完善社会的自组织功能。     

基于复杂系统脆性的传染病扩散脆性研究

作为社会系统这一复杂系统的子系统,传染病的突然性大规模扩散会对其它子系统产生影响。在没有控制的情况下,整个复杂系统的有序状态将会被破坏,最终崩溃,这就是复杂系统的脆性。基于元胞自动机对一种传染病的扩散进行仿真,说明传染病的突然性大规模扩散会对整个社会系统产生脆性作用。     

中国高技术产业创新系统协同度

基于复杂系统论的视角,将我国高技术产业创新系统分为创新环境、技术研发、技术吸收、创新产出四个子系统,采用我国高技术产业17个子行业的数据,运用复合系统协同度模型对各行业创新系统的协同度及子系统有序度进行测度。研究发现:我国高技术产业创新系统的协同度整体偏低,其根源在于技术研发、技术吸收两子系统有序度欠佳,各行业间的差距较为显著,同类产业之间相互匹配和支撑性较差。最后,针对性地提出政策建议,以期不断推进我国各产业创新系统的协同发展。     

农业保险各主体利益的协同度评价

从政策性农业保险系统各子系统的利益关系出发,构建SAR模型,对我国政策性农业保险系统2004~2011年各主体利益进行了协同度评价。结论是,在考察期内我国政策性农业保险系统各主体利益的协同度低,这揭示了我国政策性农业保险系统各子系统在特定时间段内的关联并不强,表明在该时间段内我国政策性农业保险系统在宏观上仍处于低有序的发展状态中。本文还发现,对农业保险的财政补贴在政策性农业保险系统从混沌到有序的发展过程中起着至关重要的作用。     

协同学与我国可持续发展系统自组织研究

可持续发展系统 (SDS)是人类社会赖以存在和发展的巨系统 ,是开放的合作的自组织系统。在我国可持续发展对策研究中 ,运用协同学 ,研究可持续发展系统 (SDS)中各子系统之间是怎样合作以产生宏观的空间结构、时间结构或功能结构的 ,找出可持续发展系统 (SDS)的自组织演化规律 ,对促进可持续发展的协同有序具有十分重要的作用。     

改革开放政策的系统哲学阐释——从自组织涌现律的视角

改革开放是新时代坚持和发展中国特色社会主义的必有之路。对改革开放政策的解读有多种维度,从系统哲学中关于自组织涌现律的视角来分析,开放使中国社会系统从封闭动乱转为开放有序;改革使社会各个子系统在协同共变中相互协调,整体功能得到发挥;改革与开放的双向合力,使系统内部的结构得到调整,推动社会系统"自组织"的生成,促进其由低级有序向高级有序的演化。     

论医药卫生系统的可持续发展

医药卫生系统是社会大系统的一个子系统。医药卫生系统的发展有赖于社会大系统的可持续发展,而医药卫生系统的发展亦可促进社会大系统的可持续发展。我国必须实施医药卫生系统的可持续发展战略。     

论马克思主义创始人奠定了社会协同学的理论基础

诞生于19世纪40年代的马克思主义奠定了社会协同学的理论基础:社会是一个复杂的系统;社会各方面存在协同关系;社会是自然母系统的子系统;社会协同的理想状态是社会和谐,价值追求是人的全面发展。     

从系统科学的观点看构建和谐社会

构建和谐社会是一个系统工程,必须运用系统科学的思维和方法。社会系统的和谐,有赖于各要素和子系统的共同作用、相互关系和谐、有序运行、协调发展,社会资源兼容共生。形成和谐的社会结构,包括：社会结构合理,人们行为规范,管理有序和有效。和谐社会要实现的功能目标包括：政治民主,法制完善,公平正义,经济发达,人与自然和谐相处,充满活力,文化多样,诚信友爱,安定有序。应全面推进社会主义经济建设、政治建设、文化建设、社会建设、生态建设和人力建设,实现物质文明、政治文明、精神文明、社会文明、生态文明和人的文明协调发展,进入一个经济富强、政治民主、文化繁荣、社会和谐、生态良好、人全面发展的总体理想状态。     

区域制造业与物流业的协调度——以上海市为例

基于上海市2005～2015年制造业与物流业的统计年鉴数据,从产业投入、产出、规模、结构和成长五个维度评估两业之间的协调发展情况。采用子系统有序度模型和复合系统协调度模型分析了制造业子系统、物流业子系统的有序发展情况以及两类子系统之间的复合协调程度。研究结果表明,上海市制造业与物流业的有序度波动上升,两业之间的协调度呈现从低度协调到中度协调的演化趋势,协调水平总体平稳上升,但仍存在较大协调空间。     

Overview of complex systems in sport

The complex systems approach offers an opportunity to replace the extant pre-dominant mechanistic view on sport-related phenomena. The emphasis on the environment-system relationship, the applications of complexity principles, and the use of nonlinear dynamics mathematical tools propose a deep change in sport science. Coordination dynamics, ecological dynamics, and network approaches have been successfully applied to the study of different sport-related behaviors, from movement patterns that emerge at different scales constrained by specific sport contexts to game dynamics. Sport benefit from the use of such approaches in the understanding of technical, tactical, or physical conditioning aspects which change their meaning and dilute their frontiers. The creation of new learning and training strategies for teams and individual athletes is a main practical consequence. Some challenges for the future are investigating the influence of key control parameters in the nonlinear behavior of athlete-environment systems and the possible relatedness of the dynamics and constraints acting at different spatio-temporal scales in team sports. Modelling sport-related phenomena can make useful contributions to a better understanding of complex systems and vice-versa.     

Complex concept lattices for simulating human prediction in sport

In order to address the study of complex systems, the detection of patterns in their dynamics could play a key role in understanding their evolution. In particular, global patterns are required to detect emergent concepts and trends, some of them of a qualitative nature. Formal concept analysis (FCA) is a theory whose goal is to discover and extract knowledge from qualitative data (organized in concept lattices). In complex environments, such as sport competitions, the large amount of information currently available turns concept lattices into complex networks. The authors analyze how to apply FCA reasoning in order to increase confidence in sports predictions by means of detecting regularities from data through the management of intuitive and natural attributes extracted from publicly available information. The complexity of concept lattices -considered as networks with complex topological structure- is analyzed. It is applied to building a knowledge based system for confidence-based reasoning, which simulates how humans tend to avoid the complexity of concept networks by means of bounded reasoning skills.     

Grey Dynamic Model,Forecasting & Comparison on the Development Trend in Track & Field Sports of Asia & the World

By establishing grey dynamic model and adopting its method,this essay makes forecastand comparison on the developing trend in trach and field sports of Asia and the world.To higherthe model's precise,some sequential data are processed by slide mean value,a Maclourin Exponsionis made to some exponents of less adaptable response function and acceptance or rejection is madeaccording to the fitting mode of the number series and their development.In the quatitative analysis,the first locus of the developing coefficient of the model in the sports field is the main basis.Theanalysis indicates that women's and men's field sports in Asia are developing respectively much faster,a little faster than that of the world,but men's track sports in Asia are progressing paralled to thatof the world, and women's track in Asia remains behind.     

Systemic Analysis of the Soccer (Football) Value Chain: Learning from the Brazilian Context

Soccer (football) is identified as the most popular sport in the world with a high turnover of economic-financial resources. The different segments of the soccer (football) value chain exert mutual influence on the variables that rule the dynamics of this sector. In this sense it is necessary to identify the variables that represent the soccer (football) value chain systemically; to understand the interrelationships between these variables, the main difficulties derived from this interrelationship and to point out variables that require actions to increment the results of the soccer (football) value chain as a whole. Hence, this study applied a semi-structured questionnaire with open-ended questions about the problems and leveraging variables that exist in this sports modality. A causal linkage diagram was elaborated based on the answers to the interviews, showing the systemic structure of the soccer (football) value chain in Brazil, whose premise it is to identify the existing circularities and the possibly existing points of leverage. The systemic structure pointed to the economic participation of soccer (football) in the Gross Domestic Product as a central variable to be leveraged, which tends to synthetize the results of the joint action of the actors in this chain. Furthermore, the variables that may limit or amplify the growth were identified. The systemic structure showed that the soccer (football) commodity chain is complex because of the great number of variables and interrelationships needed to represent its dynamics. The relationship between the actors also proved to be a factor of impact on economic and social development.     

基于HMM的融合多模态的事件检测

事件检测是视频语义分析中的一大难题。在视频中有多种语义丰富的模态信息,融合多模态信息可以帮助准确的检索出所需的事件。提出了一种基于HMM有效融合多模态对象的足球视频语义分析方法。首先从视频中抽取音频流,然后基于CHMM将音频分类。接着根据时间对应关系将音频对象与视频流融合,然后在相应的视频流镜头中基于DHMM融合多种模态对象实现精彩事件如射门、犯规及一般事件的检测,对射门事件进一步结合比分字幕的出现检测进球事件。另外,对DHMM模型的结构、参数初始值尤其是参数约束条件进行了详细地描述。实验证实提出的算法具有较好的效率。     

浅谈科学发展观中的系统思想

针对科学发展观蕴含的丰富系统思想,以系统论为依据,介绍了科学发展观、系统思想以及科学发展观中的系统思想。着重从系统整体性、协调性、关联性、进化性方面论述了科学发展观中包含的系统特性。分析得出,用好科学发展观系统思想是保证我国社会主义建设顺利进行的关键。     

我国大城市整体发展水平的综合评价

大城市的发展常可决定一个地区的经济发展格局和次源配置的空间分布, 通过多种方式的综合评价把握城市发展运向至关重要, 本文首先建立了一种用于我国大城市整体发展水平综合评价的指标体系, 接着提出了一种我国大城市整体发展水平的多层次多目标模糊综合评价方法, 最后应用该方法对我国部分大城市的整体发展水平进行了定量综合评价和排序, 整个评价过程已在IBMPC286/386/486及其兼容机上用TurboC、FORTRAN77和Foxbase⁺(2.0)语言实现。     

中国成品油需求仿真系统及仿真模拟研究

利用系统动力理论和成品油供需分析建立了我国三类成品油需求仿真系统,本系统分为三个子系统,即汽油需求子系统、煤油需求子系统和柴油需求子系统.系统模拟实践表明,在假定国际原油在高位平稳运行、国内经济快速发展、各类主要用油机具燃油经济性不发生变化等假设条件下,三类成品油供需呈上涨趋势且比较平衡,但均体现出供应紧张趋势;三类成品油需求比例比较稳定,但煤油需求占总需求比例有一定上升,而柴油和汽油比例有一定的波动;需求柴汽比有一定的升降;用油车辆的数量不断上升,但其增长速度都呈下降的趋势;三类成品油国内价格均低于国际价格,汽油和煤油价格上升较快,柴油价格上升较慢.     

机车车辆-轨道空间耦合动力学性能仿真系统

基于系统观点,采用先进的动态轮轨空间接触几何关系模型,编制了具有自主知识产权的机车车辆-轨道耦合动力学仿真系统TTISIM。该系统引入了三维建模技术和可视化技术,并建立了机车车辆和轨道基于变参数的三维动态视景环境。TTISIM仿真系统侧重于分析机车车辆在实际弹性轨道上运行的安全性、舒适性,服务于我国铁路现代化建设主战场,具有很强的工程应用价值。     

中国金融生态环境评价体系设计与分析

中国金融生态环境评价体系旨在评价中国城市信用环境现状及其成因,为制定改善区域金融生态对策提供依据.评价过程和技术路线由三个层次构成,即金融系统现实表征分析,金融生态环境分析以及金融生态系统效率分析.评价结果显示,中国东部地区的金融生态环境和资产质量高于中部和西部地区,中部地区最差,表明地区金融生态质量与其经济发展水平是基本相适应的.