Model Similarity and Rank-Order Based Classification of Bayesian Networks

Suppose that we rank-order the conditional probabilities for a group of subjects that are provided from a Bayesian network (BN) model of binary variables. The conditional probability is the probability that a subject has a certain attribute given an outcome of some other variables and the classification is based on the rank-order. Under the condition that the class sizes are equal across the class levels and that all the variables in the model are positively associated with each other, we compared the classification results between models of binary variables which share the same model structure. In the comparison, we used a BN model, called a similar BN model, which was constructed under some rule based on a set of BN models satisfying certain conditions. Simulation results indicate that the agreement level of the classification between a set of BN models and their corresponding similar BN model is considerably high with the exact agreement for about half of the subjects or more and the agreement up to one-class-level difference for about 90% or more.     

Mining Supervised Classification Performance Studies: A Meta-Analytic Investigation

There have been many comparative studies of classification methods in which real datasets are used as a gauge to assess the relative performance of the methods. Since these comparisons often yield inconclusive or limited results on how methods perform, it is often believed that a broader approach combining these studies would shed some light on this difficult question. This paper describes such an attempt: we have sampled the available literature and created a dataset of 5807 classification results. We show that one of the possible ways to analyze the resulting data is an overall assessment of the classification methods, and we present methods for that particular aim. The merits and demerits of such an approach are discussed, and conclusions are drawn which may assist future research: we argue that the current state of the literature hardly allows large-scale investigations. This work was sponsored by the MOD Corporate Research Programme, CISP, as part of a larger project on technology assessment. We would like to express our appreciation to Andrew Webb for his support throughout the entire project, and to Wojtek Krzanowski for valuable comments on a draft of this paper. We would also like to thank the anonymous referees for some very interesting comments, some of which we hope to pursue in future work.     

Points of View: A Conceptual Space Approach

Points of view are a central phenomenon in human cognition. Although the concept of point of view is ambiguous, there exist common elements in different notions. A point of view is a certain way to look at things around us. In conceptual points of view, things are looked at or interpreted through conceptual lenses. Conceptual points of view are important for epistemology, cognitive science, and philosophy of science. In this article, a new method to formalize conceptual points of view is introduced. It is based on the conceptual space approach, where concepts are regions of multi-dimensional quality spaces. Points of view, as defined in this article, consist of a selection of relevant dimensions, referred to here as determinables, and of a certain supposition, referred to here as a theory, about the subject content. After considering some early efforts to formalize points of view, the notion of conceptual space is defined and explored. One concept of point of view is defined and developed in the framework of conceptual space, and a new logic for points of view is also outlined. The problem of mind–body correlation is discussed as an example of the application of the notion of points of view. To conclude, the meaning and applications of the new concepts and tools developed in the article are discussed.     

The Academic Journal Ranking Problem: A Fuzzy-Clustering Approach

The Academic Journal Ranking Problem consists in formulating a formal assessment of scientific journals. An outcome variable must be constructed that allows valid journal comparison, either as a set of tiers (ordered classes) or as a numerical index. But part of the problem is also to devise a procedure to get this outcome, that is, how to get and use relevant data coming from expert opinions or from citations database. We propose a novel approach to the problem that applies fuzzy cluster analysis to peer reviews and opinion surveys. The procedure is composed of two steps: the first is to collect the most relevant qualitative assessments from international organizations (for example, the ones available in the Harzing database) and, as inductive analysis, to apply fuzzy clustering to determine homogeneous journal classes; the second deductive step is to determine the hidden logical rules that underlies the classification, using a classification tree to reproduce the same patterns of the first step.     

作为一种价值的互联网——一个比较哲学的思路

本文通过对国内外文献的梳理,介绍了作为一种价值的互联网的基本规范性背景和具体理路。如果互联网不是一项价值中立的技术,而从其工程结构中就嵌有个体自由的根本价值,那么它在异质文化中的使用或会造成价值倾销甚至价值冲突。随着互联网技术应用在我国的普及和深入,我们有迫切的需要重新审视传统价值在互联网工程设计和应用方面可能产生的作用。考察儒家价值与互联网的可能互动或能为我们提供崭新的技术哲学思路。     

人体隐喻的英汉机械工程术语翻译策略

文章基于体验认知理论,旨在研究两个问题:(1)人体隐喻机械工程术语翻译及其认知理据;(2)根据New-mark提出的七种隐喻翻译策略,每种人体隐喻的机械工程术语翻译策略使用比率及每个策略具有什么认知理据.文章从《英汉机械工程术语》中收集语料,探讨英—汉人体隐喻的机械工程术语翻译策略.该研究有助于科技术语翻译理论与实践.     

科学推理:从贝耶斯主义的观点看

贝耶斯主义是上个世纪三、四十年代以来,对诸多学科如统计学、经济学、政治科学、决策论、心理学、认知科学、人工智能等产生过广泛影响的学术思想.近二十多年来,逐步发展成为一个一般性的科学推理理论,是目前科学方法论领域中一个重要的研究纲领.本文从三个方面对这一纲领进行概略性的介绍:贝耶斯主义的基本概念及其归纳理论框架;贝耶斯主义解决各种科学方法论问题的尝试和成果;贝耶斯主义纲领留下的有待争论和解决的问题.     

科学解释的模型论进路

科学解释是科学哲学研究的重要问题之一.针对传统的科学解释模型,赫西、卡特赖特和哈瑞等哲学家提出的模型论是研究科学解释的一个新进路.这个学派认为,关于科学解释,不是用什么规律来推出现象,而从根本上说必须构造出一个模型,即用隐喻或类比方法建立迄今未知事物的模型来理解和解释世界.     

Model-based Clustering with Noise: Bayesian Inference and Estimation

This paper proposes a new way of overcoming the existing limitations. It generalizes the model used in the previous approaches by introducing a more comprehensive portfolio of covariance matrix structures. Further, this paper proposes a Bayesian solution in the presence of the noise in clustering problems. The performace of the proposed method is first studied by simulation; the procedure is also applied to the analysis of data concerning species of butterflies and diabetes patients.     

关于太空/空间物理名词的初步探讨

一、现状太空/空间物理学是在本世纪50年代末,随着人类进入太空/空间而诞生,随着太空/空间技术的发展而发展起来的一门学科,在三十余年里,得到了很大的发展,也涌现出大批专用名词。由于西方国家在这一领域中处于技术和科学上的领先地位,这些名词都是以英文的形式首先出现,然后移植到汉语中,逐渐形成了完整的专业名词体系。第一,因为这些专业名词都是太空/空间物理学家在科学研究中为了交流的需要而逐步确定的,主要考虑了对名词所包含的科学意义的表达,较少地从构词学上进行推敲;第二,专业名词是随着研究工作的进展而陆续出现的,在确定一个名词时往往忽略了名词之间的一致性,因而有时会出现名词本身虽无可非议,但从整体上看不甚协调;第三,在名词形成过程中与其它学科、研究部门和技术部门之间的沟通不够,在名词上出现较多的差异。大陆各部门的名称上就反映出这样的差异：“航天工业总公司”、“宇航学会”、“空间技术研究院”、“空间科学与应用研究中心”等;第四,由于众所周知的原因,在太空/空间名词大量涌现的相当长的一段时间里,大陆、台湾、香港等主要使用汉语的地区学术交流很少,逐步形成各自的、互不相同的习惯用语。其结果是专业名词上出现一些混乱的局面。一旦需要在各行业之间、各地区之间进行交流时,名词上的差异就会带来许多问题,或者不能理解对方的含义而无法沟通,或者因词意不同而造成误解,后果更为严重。太空/空间物理学仍在迅速发展,新的太空/空间物理名词在不断地衍生,大陆、台湾、香港、澳门和海外等汉语地区的学术交流日益频繁,因而加强名词的研究与交流,取长补短,形成一个具有汉语特色的、优美的、能为大家所接受的太空/空间物理名词体系是我们无可推托的责任。1993年,经台湾中央大学太空科学研究所赵寄昆教授等有识之士的努力,在台湾中央大学举行了第一次“海峡两岸太空/空间科学名词讨论会”,对现有的名词作了全面的研讨,分析了海峡两岸名词上的差异和各自的优缺点,在相当多的问题上取得了共识,出现了解决这一问题的良好的势头。我们希望海峡两岸的学者进一步加强合作,共同努力做好这一工作。二、几个典型名词的分析太空/空间物理名词有待讨论的名词很多,现仅选择较为常用的、影响面较宽的几个名词作初步的分析。1.太空/空间(space)在“太空/空间物理”领域中,“太空/空间”实际上指的是包括地球中高层大气和大气层以外的宇宙空间。space一词在英语中具有十分广泛的含义,其中之一包含有“外部空间”,即“地球大气层以外的区域”的意思,完整的、不会引起误解的用法是“outer space”(见《英汉辞海》,王同亿主编,国防工业出版社1990年版)。对应的汉语名词应为“外层空间”或“宇宙空间”。“空间”一词在汉语中的含义,根据《辞海》(上海辞书出版社1979年版)的解释,是把“空间”和“时间”一同作为“运动着的物质的存在形式”,“空间”是“物质存在的广延性”,基本上是一个哲学的概念。用“空间”来表达“宇宙空间”容易引起误解。“太空”一词自古有之。1915年商务印书馆出版的《辞源》中的解释是“太空,谓天也。指包括地球之空间而言。天本积气。望之无际。故曰太空。[关尹子]一运之象。周乎太空。”[关尹子]收录于东汉班固所撰《汉书》中(见《辞海》)。又据台湾三民书局1985年出版的《大辞典》的“太空”词条,在[司空图·诗品]中有“具备万物,横绝太空”之句。台湾中华书局1986年最新增订版的《辞海》更摘录了苏轼“喜雨亭记”中的诗句“日之太空,太空冥冥”。可见在东汉以前即出现了“太空”一词,并且在以后的著作里又不断为文人学士所采用。虽然当时不可能有明确的现代关于宇宙空间的理解,但其基本涵义是符合现代关于“太空”定义的。根据上述各种权威辞典的解释,我们认为在泛指“宇宙空间”或“外层空间”时,不宜简称为“空间”,而应采用“太空”一词较为准确,如：“太空科学”(space science),“太空技术”(space technology),“太空物理”(space physics),“太空站”(space station),“太空飞行”(space flight),“太空飞行器”(spacecraft)等。而在特指某一区域,或某一空间范围时则不宜用“太空”,而应采用前面带有限定词的“空间”：“近地空间”(near earth space),“地月空间”(cislunar space),“行星际空间”(interp1anetary space)等。2.电浆/等离子体/离子体(plasma)名词“电浆/等离子体/离子体”是大约在50年代出现的,指物质的一种形态。McGraw－Hi1l公司1989年出版的《Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms》中的定义是：“包含等量离子和电子的、密度足够高以致其德拜长度远小于气体尺度的、高度电离的气体”。其它物质形态为：固态、液态、气态,各自对应的名称是固体、液体、气体。在台湾早期的辞书中曾译为“离子体”(见1973年台湾商务印书馆出版《中山自然科学大辞典》,似乎是想反映它是由“离子”组成的物质的意思(见表1)。大陆则在一开始就采用“等离子体”,至今未作改动,顾名思义,不但想说明是由离子构成的,而且强调是由数量相“等”的正、负离子组成的。最后采用“体”字,也和“固体”、“液体”等是一致的。但“等离子体”共四个字组成一个名词似稍长。“plasma”一词在医学名词中为“血浆”,在许多台湾的辞书中称为“电浆”,意图反映它是指带电的浆状物质。但“浆”字从“水”,除泛指饮料外,“特指较浓的汁。如豆浆;血浆。亦指粘厚如糊的东西。如泥浆。”(见《辞海》)。而“电浆”却必定是十分稀薄的气体,否则不可能维持其由“电子、离子”组成的电中性状态。因而“浆”字不仅在字意上不甚贴切,且与其它三态的名称不一致。3.类比/模拟(analog(y))analog(y)原意是相似、类似、类推。并不是“太空/空间”物理的专用名词,在物理学、电子学、计算机等学科中有广泛的应用。我们可以从下面的一些专用名词来理解它的含义：analog data,digital data;analog computer,digital computer;analog multiplier,digital multiplier;analog to digital converter。显然,“analog”的反意词为“digital”。“digital”是指以不连续的物理量(例如,可以明确区分的高电位和低电位、强电流和弱电流)为基础得到的,以离散数字的形式来表示、存储、运算的方式。而“analog”则是以某种连续的物理量,如可连续变化的电流的大小、可连续变化的电压的高低来表示、存储、运算的方式。在大陆一直翻译为“模拟”,“模拟”在《辞海》中未列词条,而“模”有模型、模范、榜样、仿效等意思。“拟”的意思为“度量,猜测”。在台湾辞书中“类比”和“模拟”都曾使用(见表2)。《辞海》对“类比法”词条的解释是：“根据两个对象某些属性的相同,推出它们的其它属性也可能相同的间接推理”。无论是“模拟”还是“类比”,和上面的专业意思相比,似乎词未能达意。4.遥感/遥测(remote sensing)在大陆remote sensing一直翻译为“遥感”,在陈述彭先生主编的《遥感大辞典》中的定义是十分明确的：“泛指各种非接触的,远距离的探测技术。根据物体对电磁波的反射和辐射特性,将来可能涉及声波、引力波和地震波”。而“遥测”的定义是：“对被控对象的某些物质运动参数进行远距离测量的技术。首先由敏感器件量测被测对象,包括接触和不接触被测对象在内,将参数转变为电信号,然后应用多路通信和数据传输,将这些电信号传到远方的接收、记录或显示终端。遥测技术和遥感技术是有区别的。遥测技术虽然有时也不直接接触被测目标,但它发射预定无线电信号的目的是为了控制目标运动的轨迹、方位和姿态”。在台湾使用的名词中则既有“遥感”又有“遥测”。如中央大学太空科学研究所提出的太空科学名词中remote sensing和telemetry都译为“遥测”,研究所名称也是“太空及遥测研究中心”。1985年台湾三民书局出版的《大辞典》中将remote sensing译为“遥感”：“以遥控为基础,将远距的物件之性质,侦测之后再传达到电脑加以处理,以得所需之资料”。1986年台湾中华书局出版的《辞海》中将telemetry译为“遥测”：“物理学名词。将各种物理量(如电压、电流、汽压、温度、流量等)变换为易于传输之电信号,用无线电或有线电送至远方测量地进行测量。应用于生产过程自动化及火箭技术中”。由此看来,海峡两岸对“遥测”和“遥感”的理解基本是一样的。有可能取得一致。5.space weather“weather”一词在气象学中译为“天气”,《辞海》中的解释是：“瞬时或较短时间内风、云、降水、温度、气压等气象要素综合显示的大气状况。日常所讲的天气,是指影响人类生活、生产的大气物理现象和物理状态,例如,阴、晴、雨、雪、冷、暖、干、湿等”。“space weather”的意思是太空环境的状况,包括等离子体,高能带电粒子,磁场,电场等参数的变化状况,至今尚无确切的译名。如采用“太空气象”或“空间气象”,则需要和“从太空/空间研究大气现象”的含义区分开。三、建立名词体系名词是事物的名称。我们知道事物,特别是作为科学研究的对象的事物是一个有机的整体,彼此之间具有错综复杂的关系,因此在确定一个事物的名称时,就必须考虑与相关事物的名称之间的协调性。例如,太空物理研究中各个区域的名称习惯上以“层”来表述,“电离层”、“热层”、“大气层”等等,它们的厚度比较薄,“层”不会引起争议。而如果认为厚度较大,外形象“球”而不是“层”,称其为“等离子体球”、“磁球”,虽然英语字根中的“sphere”翻译为“球”也是完全可以的,但是那样就会破坏名词间的协调性,如果统一称为“等离子体层”、“磁层”更为可取。这个例子说明了在制定一个名词时必须照顾到“左邻右舍”。经验表明,按照事物的内在联系建立名词体系是比较好的方法。四、结束语鉴于上述情况,我们认为：太空科学名词的现状需要改变,长此以往将影响学术交流,名词应逐步趋于一致。我们呼吁：海峡两岸的太空科学界的专家们携起手来,共同做好这项工作,让古老,优美的汉语在现代科技交流中放出新的光芒。     

论证研究的认知社会学路径

论证是一种普遍而重要的日常社会活动。主流论证理论主要关注论证的形式合理性或语用功能下的合理性。相形之下,论证的心智过程和地方性特征尚未得到充分研究。从认知社会学视角看,论证是一种基于地方性知识的语言互动和内隐推理相结合的过程。进而可在推理的论证理论和文化图式方法支撑下,探索一种论证研究的认知社会学路径。此研究路径旨在经验性地描述和分析论证的认知机制,同时拓展论证研究的社会文化维度。     

A Multiagent Approach to Modelling Complex Phenomena

Designing models of complex phenomena is a difficult task in engineering that can be tackled by composing a number of partial models to produce a global model of the phenomena. We propose to embed the partial models in software agents and to implement their composition as a cooperative negotiation between the agents. The resulting multiagent system provides a global model of a phenomenon. We applied this approach in modelling two complex physiological processes: the heart rate regulation and the glucose-insulin metabolism. Beyond the effectiveness demonstrated in these two applications, the idea of using models associated to software agents to give reason of complex phenomena is in accordance with current tendencies in epistemology, where it is evident an increasing use of computational models for scientific explanation and analysis. Therefore, our approach has not only a practical, but also a theoretical significance: agents embedding models are a technology suitable both to representing and to investigating reality.

A Framework Linking Non-Living and Living Systems: Classification of Persistence, Survival and Evolution Transitions

We propose a framework for analyzing the development, operation and failure to survive of all things, living, non-living or organized groupings. This framework is a sequence of developments that improve survival capability. Framework processes range from origination of any entity/system, to the development of increased survival capability and development of life-forms and organizations that use intelligence. This work deals with a series of developmental changes that arise from the uncovering of emergent properties. The framework is intended to be general, but we see a potential to apply it to scientific topics such as the exploration of the origin of life or the search for life beyond Earth, and to understand some biological issues in evolution and symbiosis, and also to apply to social systems that do not seem to be operating well, to determine their problems and correct them.

A Nonlinear Programming Approach to Metric Unidimensional Scaling

Classical unidimensional scaling provides a difficult combinatorial task. A procedure formulated as a nonlinear programming (NLP) model is proposed to solve this problem. The new method can be implemented with standard mathematical programming software. Unlike the traditional procedures that minimize either the sum of squared error (L ₂ norm) or the sum pf absolute error (L ₁ norm), the proposed method can minimize the error based on any L _p norm for 1 ≤p < ∞. Extensions of the NLP formulation to address a multidimensional scaling problem under the city-block model are also discussed.     

A Probability for Classification Based on the Dirichlet Process Mixture Model

In this paper we provide an explicit probability distribution for classification purposes when observations are viewed on the real line and classifications are to be based on numerical orderings. The classification model is derived from a Bayesian nonparametric mixture of Dirichlet process model; with some modifications. The resulting approach then more closely resembles a classical hierarchical grouping rule in that it depends on sums of squares of neighboring values. The proposed probability model for classification relies on a numerical procedure based on a reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for determining the probabilities. Some numerical illustrations comparing with alternative ideas for classification are provided.     

A Combinatorial Approach to Assess the Separability of Clusters

Separability of clusters is an issue that arises in many different areas, and is often used in a rather vague and subjective manner. We introduce a combinatorial notion of interiority to derive a global view on separability of a set of entities. We develop this approach further to evaluate the overall separability of a partition in the context of cluster analysis. Our approach captures combinatorial and geometrical aspects of data and provides, in addition to numerical evaluations, graphical representations particularly useful when data are not easily visualized. We illustrate the methodology on some real and simulated datasets.     

另眼看默顿科学社会学

在默顿科学社会学的发展过程中,马克思主义哲学不仅是其思想资源之一,而且充当了某种理论参照系的作用;同时,默顿科学社会学强调科学的自主存在和发展,对于马克思主义哲学强调科学依赖经济需要和物质生产的观点,既是一种"反调",也是一种有益的补充.默顿科学社会学关于科学制度的研究是开创性的.这种研究看到了马克思主义哲学没有看到的关于科学社会本性的许多内容,极大地丰富了马克思主义哲学的科学观.