Fuzzy preferences in conflicts

A systematic fuzzy approach is developed to model fuzziness and uncertainties in the preferences of decision makers involved in a conflict. This unique fuzzy preference formulation is used within the paradigm of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution in which a given dispute is modeled in terms of decision makers, each decision maker＇s courses of actions or options, and each decision maker＇s preferences concerning the states or outcomes which could take place. In order to be able to determine the stability of each state for each decision maker and the possible equilibria or resolutions, a range of solution concepts describing potential human behavior under conflict are defined for use with fuzzy preferences. More specifically, strong and weak definitions of stability are provided for the solution concepts called Nash, general metarational, symmetric metarational, and sequential stability. To illustrate how these solution concepts can be conveniently used in practice, they are applied to a dispute over the contamination of an aquifer by a chemical company located in Elmira, Ontario, Canada.     

Mechanisms of Collaboration in the Hotel Supply Chain: Two-Stage Ordering Contract and Option Contract

This paper considers a hotel supply chain consisting of a hotel and an online travel agent (OTA) for the distribution of a limited number of rooms through both offline and online channels. Under the merchant cooperation assumption, to overcome the disadvantages of the decentralized decision model and demand uncertainty, two collaboration mechanisms, namely a two-stage ordering contract and an option contract, are introduced to increase the profit in the hotel supply chain. This paper investigates the optimal decisions of the hotel and the OTA under different contract models. Moreover, the authors analyze the effect of demand uncertainty and the interaction of demand variability and the hotel’s capacity on the profits of the hotel and the OTA under different models. The results show that both the two-stage ordering contract and the option contract can increase the profits of the entire supply chain and the hotel; however, the profit of the OTA can be increased through the two-stage ordering contract and option contract only when the hotel’s capacity is relatively small and the demand variability is big; otherwise, the two collaboration mechanisms cannot increase the OTA’s profit.     

基于谱风险测度与期权契约的季节性商品订购策略分析

以一个经销季节性商品的零售商为研究对象, 通过引入考虑零售商风险态度的谱风险测度, 分析了期权契约机制下 具有不同风险偏好零售商的最优订购策略. 通过建立期权契约机制下基于零售商谱风险测度的商品订购决策模型, 分析得出零售商的最优现货订购量和期权订购量存在并且唯一; 并进一步结合均值 -CVaR风险谱函数, 研究了在此风险测度下不同风险偏好零售商的具体订购策略, 揭示了零售商风险态度、期权契约等对其最优订购策略的影响; 最后 通过数值实例对模型的求解过程和理论结果进行了验证分析.     

风险态度对医疗保险决策的影响

在医疗保险购买这类个体决策过程中,决策者的风险态度将对决策行为产生影响。建立了医疗保险决策模型,并通过对不同风险规避度的决策者的决策行为分析,揭示了风险态度对医疗保险决策的影响。研究表明,在面临一定的健康风险时,风险规避度越高的决策者,其购买的医疗保险也越多;而需对面临的健康风险进行估计时,对风险规避程度较低的决策者,可能会出现健康风险越高,购买的保险越少的情况。     

多元判断偏好集结的混合群决策过程研究

针对评价过程中出现的不同偏好表达,提出了两阶段集结的群体决策方法:个人偏好转换和多专家集结。个人偏好转换把不同专家做出的模糊偏好关系、效用函数、部分选择、偏好排序、语言偏好关系等表达方式,转换为归一化的数值绝对偏好,并在专家相对偏好的权重表达中,采用模糊有序加权平均(ordered weighted averaging,OWA) 算子和语言有序加权平均(linguistic ordered weighted averaging,LOWA)算子;多专家集结则根据等差数的专家权重排列,并将权重做归一化处理,得出总分后即从可行方案中选出最优的方案,分数越高表明专家群体越为偏好,从而获得多元偏好表达的混合专家群体的民主选择结果。将该两步集结的方法用于某公司的人才综合评估中。与以往传统的选择方法相比,突出了决策者偏好表达的自由、民主的特征。     

A Decision Support Model and Procedure for Selecting Interrelated R&D Projects

A decision support model with stochastic multiobjective functins and constraintsand its solution provedure are presented for selecting RD projects,in which the uncertaintyof project evaluation and selection,the interactions of technique,resource and benefit amongprojects,and the experience,knoeledge and preference of RD managers are considered .Thestatistical results of stochastic factors representing the benefit contributions and the theree kinds     

融合新型偏好度模型和改进累积前景理论的决策方法

针对决策问题的不确定性和复杂性以及属性权重和专家权重未知等特征,提出一种融合新型偏好度模型和改进累积前景理论的决策方法。首先,定义群决策问题的基本框架,将属性值和心理参考点改进为区间值;其次,根据区间心理参考点的二维几何表示定义新型偏好度模型,由此确定属性权重和专家权重;再次,聚合专家意见,考虑专家心理行为,由属性值和区间心理参考点的位置关系,得到收益值和损失值的计算公式,进而确定各方案的总前景值及排序关系;最后,通过案例分析和方法对比验证该方法的有效性、可行性和实用性。     

Flexible Interaction Multiobjective Programming

This paper develops and interactive method,called flexible interaction multiobjectiveprogramming(FIMP),for solving multiobjective decision problems.In a decision process a minimaxproblem is iteratively solved within a progressively reduced objective space until a noninferior solutionwhich is perferred by the decision maker(DM)is found.The interaction process is easy,reliable and     

施工导流方案多属性群协商决策

针对异质群体参与的施工导流方案风险型多属性决策问题,分析导流方案决策主体面临不同属性时所对应的偏好尺度和评价效用的差异性,引入群体协商集结理论,提出基于可能度矩阵表征的导流方案群决策策略. 通过对各属性下导流方案决策主体的非一致性、模糊性意见进行协商集结,计算属性权重的协商区间. 基于蒙特卡罗模拟仿真技术,计算随机权重向量下导流方案两两间的优胜概率,得到描述导流方案优胜程度的模糊互补判断矩阵,据此进行备选方案的优先排序,并给出了排序的可信度. 实例验证了该方法的可行性和有效性. 研究为多属性群决策视角下导流方案的优选提供了理论基础和决策支持.     

基于需求预测的供应链期权式契约协调

通过期权机制，分别建立了基于需求预测的两阶段生产和订购模式下的集中决策型和合作型供应链中各决策主体的决策模型．发现期权机制要优于传统的报童模型（Newsvendor）。在合作型供应链中，供应商和零售商根据预测结果合理地安排其两阶段的生产和订购量，通过选择不同的期权价格政策，可以将部分市场风险转移给供应商，供应商也因此通过期权而获得相应的风险补偿，从而实现供应链协调。最后根据电子半导体类产品的特征，对论文中的理论模型进行了详细的模拟分析，结果验证了期权契约在需求预测环境下的供应链协调过程中的有效性。     

Inventory replenishment policy for the decision maker with present-biased preference and time-inconsistency under inflation

Due to bounded rationality, people often rush for instantaneous gratification if the decisions involve immediate rewards, but procrastinate if the decisions involve immediate costs. Present-biased preference and time-inconsistency will be more salient when people are making inter-temporal decisions to trade off rewards and costs in the future. People outweigh the present and their preference for the outcome in the future will decline over time. Incorporating present-biased preference and time-inconsistency under quasi-hyperbolic discounting, time value of money under inflation and time-varying demand with shortages completely backlogged, we develop an inventory replenishment model for a deteriorating item. Inventory replenishment policies that benefit the decision maker are as follows. With the increase of time-inconsistency, one can increase ordering number and decrease fraction of shortages; with the increase of hazard rate within an upper limit, one can increase ordering number and decrease fraction of shortage; with the increase of compounded discount rate, one can increase ordering number and fraction of shortage. Hyperbolic discounting increases the ordering number and decreases the final profit, and the degree of hyperbolic discounting strengthens such outcomes. As a result, the optimal policy for a decision maker is to keep as rational as possible when making inter-temporal decisions.     

基于偏好矩阵的混合型多属性决策方法

针对混合型多属性决策问题,提出了一种基于偏好矩阵的决策方法。该方法从对偏好关系赋予基数值的角度思考并分析问题,通过确立标准优劣差异矩阵同时实现方案间属性优劣比较和差异规范,并充分考虑了区间型和风险型属性各自的不确定性特点;定义统一的偏好映射建立偏好矩阵,然后求解排序向量来量化方案的相对重要程度,再聚合得到总排序向量,实现方案排序。给出了应用该方法的决策原理与具体求解步骤。最后,以自动目标识别系统评估为例进行了算例分析,此算例说明了所提方法的有效性。     

权重信息完全未知且对方案有偏好的多属性决策法

研究了属性权重信息完全未知且决策者对方案有偏好的多属性决策问题. 针对决策者对方案的偏好信息以互补判断矩阵形式给出的情形, 基于互补判断矩阵, 利用线性转换函数将决策信息一致化, 然后建立了一个优化模型, 进而给出了一种相应的决策方案排序方法. 最后进行了实例分析.     

过度自信零售商的最优订购与融资决策

零售商对市场需求的过度自信主要体现在对市场需求期望过高和对市场需求的预测精度高估两个方面，这会导致其经营决策与完全理性时的决策相比有偏差。为此，构造了反映两种过度自信的市场需求认知模型，改进了现有相关研究中往往仅考虑对市场需求的预测精度高估的市场需求认知模型，并基于改进的需求认知模型得到了过度自信零售商在无资金约束和存在资金约束且由银行提供融资服务时的最优订购决策。研究表明：如果市场需求的期望值较大，则存在过度自信的无资金约束零售商的最优订购量大于完全理性下的订购量，但其最优的期望利润随着过度自信水平的增大反而减少；如果市场需求的期望值相对较小，则结论刚好相反。当零售商面临资金约束时，风险规避银行是否提供融资服务取决于零售商的自有资金水平；过度自信零售商的最优订购决策不仅受自身自信水平的影响，还受银行融资利率和初始自有资金水平的影响。     

不确定环境下战斗机采购效能评估模型

为了处理采购战斗机过程中存在的不确定信息, 首次将偏好规划理论引入到采购效能评估中. 先建立战斗机采购效能评估体系, 指标和偏好的不确定性用区间形式表示, 求解采用RICH法; 针对一些属性只有备选方案的序数信息的情况, 采用混合整数规划进行建模. 模型通过线性不等式与偏好规划方法进行集成. 最后, 通过实例验算表明该方法在不确定环境下的有效性.     

属性具有不同形式偏好信息的群决策方法

针对决策者给出属性具有不同形式偏好信息的多目标群决策问题,提出了一种新的集结方法。该方法首先将多个决策者提供的属性的三类偏好信息———属性重要程度的序关系、AHP判断矩阵和语言描述作一致化处理———转化为AHP判断矩阵,重点针对如何将属性重要程度的语言描述转化成AHP判断矩阵的方法进行了研究。其次,关于属性偏好信息建立了一个能集成决策群体意见的线性目标规划模型。最后给出了算例说明该方法能最大程度地反映每个决策者的偏好意见。     

基于满意度函数的群决策排序方法

针对层次分析法中决策成员对决策元素的两两比较判断值与群体偏好值往往会偏离的情形,提出基于满意度函数的群体决策排序方法.该方法利用基于离差的满意度函数,通过建立偏好度集结的目标规划来确定层次分析法中的属性权重.该方法能避免目前多数研究中仅将决策成员当成信,包提供者的情况.还能解决判断值缺失下的群体偏好度集结问题与决策成员的不同权重问题.最后给出一个具体的算例证明该方法有效.     

考虑节点中断和需求波动的可靠供应链网络设计问题

本文研究了一个包含供应点、中转点和需求点的三级可靠供应链网络设计问题(RSCNDP).文章同时考虑了供应端的不确定性(节点中断的可能性)和需求端的不确定性(需求量的波动性),针对这些因素,采用情景的方法描述,并结合p-鲁棒模型的优点提出了一个新的混合整数规划模型.在模型中,α,β两参数分别表示决策者对节点中断和需求波动的风险偏好,优化的目标是在给定的风险偏好下最小化设施的固定成本和产品的运输成本.文章提出了一个由最短增广链法和遗传算法的相结合的混合智能算法来求解该模型,并结合实际进行了相应的数值分析.结论显示决策者的风险偏好对可靠供应链网络的设计会产生重大的影响,而在面临风险时,可靠的供应链网络表现要优于确定型的供应链网络,这些为企业的供应链管理决策提供了理论支撑.     

基于 ITFN 信息关联输入的改进群体 MULTIMOORA 决策方法

提出基于直觉梯形模糊数(intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy number, ITFN)极小、极大期望值的序关系判别准则, 并引入风险系数构建ITFN相对完善的带有决策者风险偏好的运算规则, 在此基础上定义直觉梯形模糊Bonferroni (intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy Bonferroni, ITFB)平均算子, 验证其相关性质. 针对决策者之间、属性之间分别存在关联关系且权重均未知的多属性群决策问题, 提出基于ITFN信息关联输入的改进群体MULTIMOORA决策方法. 首先, 构建直觉梯形模糊决策矩阵序列, 予以标准化处理, 并将其转化为极小期望决策矩阵序列; 其次, 综合利用基于熵权法和考虑决策者偏好关联的基于2-可加模糊测度与Choquet积分联合的主客观赋权法确定决策者权重及属性权重; 最后, 分别引入WITFB平均算子及ITFN的Hamming 距离以改进传统MULTIMOORA决策方法, 基于优势理论可对方案展开综合排序以确定最优方案. 通过算例分析验证本文方法的可行性及有效性.     

基于信息粒化的不平衡模糊语言共识模型

An adaptive consensus model based on linguistic information granulation is presented for group consensus decision making problems with unbalanced fuzzy linguistic preference information. A granular representation of unbalanced linguistic terms is concerned with the interval formation of a family of information granules over the unit interval. In the case of the cutoffs of information granules unknown, individual consistent degree and group consensus degree of granulation are defined. An optimization model to determine the optimal cutoffs of information granules is established with the help of the above two definitions. Group consensus is achieved by constantly adjusting individual preferences through the optimization of the cutoffs. Finally, a group decision making method which is a guarantee of reaching a certain degree of group consensus before aggregating expert opinions is proposed, and also a numerical example illustrates the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.