广义离散灰色预测模型及其应用

基于离散灰色预测模型提出了广义离散灰色预测模型(GDGM(1,1)模型),它包含了常见的齐次与非齐次指数序列模型,一次累加抛物型自回归模型,以及一次累加时变线性模型;证明了对四类特殊序列具有模拟完全重合性;研究了在数乘变化下模型参数与模拟值的变化规律以及相对误差的不变性;给出了模型建模步骤及其方法,通过实例对DGM(1,1)模型,NDGM(1,1)模型,CDGM(1,1)模型,TDGM(1,1)模型,NHGM(1,1,k)模型,GM(1,1)直接建模模型以及本文模型的模拟预测效果进行了比较,结果表明GDGM(1,1)模型能够提高预测模拟精度.     

Automatic modulation classification using modulation fingerprint extraction

An automatic method for classifying frequency shift keying (FSK), minimum shift keying (MSK), phase shift keying (PSK), quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM), a...     

UPPER AND LOWER SOLUTIONS METHODS FOR EXISTENCE OF PERIODIC SOLUTIONS OF DUFFING EQUATION

1.IntroductionandNotationsInthispapertwestudytheexistenceofsolutionstothefollowingperiodicboundaryvalueproblemforthesecondorderDuffingequationwheresisarealparameter,g:[0,TIxR~RisaCarath6odoryfunctionandkER\{0}.Werecall(forexample,see[1])thatg:[0,TIxR~RiscalledaCarath6odoryfunctionifg(.,x)ismeasurableforallxERandg(t,.)iscontinuousfora.e.tE[0,TI.Theexistenceproblemfor(1.1)--(1.2)byusingtheupperandlowersolutionsmethodhasbeenstudiedbyFabryetal.in[2]foramoregeneralcasewhereacontinuousdampin…     

国际有色金属期货市场VaR和ES风险度量功效的比较

采用历史模拟法、蒙特卡罗模拟法、指数加权法、等权重法、GARCH法和极值理论法六种参数方法和非参数方法对国际有色金属期货市场风险值VaR建模, 并引入基于极值理论的预期不足ES对风险度量进行补充. 在利用返回检验对实证结果的功效进行比较研究的基础之上, 得出结论: 从对ES和VaR的检验结果比较而言, 当有色金属期货市场价格出现大幅跌涨时, ES比VaR更能准确地度量市场风险; 从对各种方法VaR的检验结果比较而言, 在95\%的置信度下, GARCH法和指数加权法能够更加有效地度量市场风险, 在99\%的置信度下, 指数加权法、GARCH法和历史模拟法能够更好地估计市场风险.     

决策支持系统的发展与趋势

决策支持系统(DSS)是支持半结构化和非结构化决策,允许决策者直接干预并能接受决策者的直观判断和经验的功态交互式计算机系统。本文结合笔者在研究工作中的体会,概述了DSS的几个主要发展趋势:群决策支持系统(GDSS)、智能决策支持系统(IDSS)、集成式决策支持系统(I-DSS)、分布式决策支持系统(DDSS)、决策支持中心(DSC)和战略决策支持系统(SDSS)的基本概念和特征,并提出了各发展趋势中值得深入研究的课题。     

Multivariate likelihood ratio ordering of conditional order statistics

Multivariate likelihood ratio order of order statistics conditioned on both the right tail and the left tail are built. These results strengthen and generalize those conclusions in terms of the univariate likelihood ratio order by Khaledi and Shaked (2007), Li and Zhao (2006), Hu, et al. (2006), and Hu, Jin, and Khaledi (2007).     

一种基于生长激素调节原理的智能协同控制器

提出一种基于人体生长激素双向调节机制的智能协同控制器,研究了其控制参数调节规律。控制器包括增强控制单元、抑制控制单元和融合控制单元,根据生长激素分泌调节原理分别设计其控制调节规律。增强控制单元主要起快速消除控制偏差的作用,抑制控制单元则起稳定消除控制偏差的作用;在融合控制单元的协调下,增强控制单元和抑制控制单元协同工作,迅速、稳定地消除控制偏差。仿真结果表明,该智能协同控制器的控制性能优于传统PID。     

复杂产品开发过程仿真及其优化方法研究

针对复杂产品开发过程并行、迭代的特点,提出一种集成化模型,该模型结合和扩展了活动网络图和设计结构矩阵的过程建模方法。结合这个集成模型,提出了一种仿真算法,可以进行过程性能的预测和分析,并且可以进行各种参数的敏感性分析。在仿真的基础上,提出基于遗传算法的优化方法,用于进行过程结构的改进。     

工程项目计划"关键性"问题拓展研究

工程项目计划中传统“关键”概念及其衡量指标存在着局限性。基于风险管理理论对网络计划中的“关键”进行拓展研究。对几个经典关键性指标———线路关键概率 (PCP)、工作关键概率 (ACP)和工作关键指标(ACI)进行了比较研究 ;鉴于各自的利弊 ,提出应将ACP与ACI相结合的管理思路。同时提出了一个表征项目整体关键 /风险水平的新指标PCI,着重阐述了各指标在项目决策与管理中的重要作用。用VisualC 开发了相应网络计划蒙特卡洛仿真 (MCS)软件NETSIMU ,并将其应用于一个工程实例分析。此研究成果有助于管理者全面而准确地把握工程项目计划中的关键     

CLICK工程管理理论模型:基于潍柴的成功经验

依据蕴含潍柴动力股份有限公司(简称潍柴)成功发展经验的200多万字的文本资料,运用改进的扎根理论方法,提炼概括了潍柴成功背后的工程管理概念模型,进而从流程视角构建了工程管理理论模型,并以潍柴H1平台开发工程案例加以验证.结果发现,潍柴成功的五个关键维度为做正确的事(Correct),配置合适的领导及团队(Leader)...     

Comparative Analysis and Fuzzy Selection of Information System Development Approach

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Cochlear Implant

1 Introduction1 1.1 About Hearing Mechanisms The hearing function in human beings is something very specific and difficult to understand because it uses the brain highest functions. Basically, we can say (figure 1) that several stages are involved [1]: It is not easy to give a unique interpretation to each one of these stages, as most of the involved processes overlap at all levels. Nevertheless, as a brief summary, let us assume that [2]: l The ear transmits the air vibrations and transfor…     

ASYMPTOTIC STABILITY OF SOLUTION TO THE INITIAL-BOUNDARY VALUE PROBLEM FOR SCALAR VISCOUS CONSERVATION LAWS CORRESPONDING TO RAREFACTION WAVES

1.IntroductionWeconsidertheinitial-boundaryvalueproblem(IBVP)forscalarviscousconservationlaw(ut f(u).=uxx,xE(0, co)=R ,t>0,o,(n \--9,ifI~9,f~M(IBVP){u(0't)=u~(t)-1~i---t:7),[u(x,0)=u000={=:0)f:LO .,wheref"(u)>0foralluunderconsideration,andu--u (1.1),andu~(t)~u~EL'(R ),U'(t)EL'(R ).(1.2)Undercondition(1.l)or(l.l)',thecorrespondingRiemannproblem{;;ot:<:>;i,>=x{,:3'f:,:(13)yieldstherarefaCtionwavesolution(u~)x5f'(u~)t,r"(X,t)=17j,)~1(…     

基于傅立叶变换的积分算法研究

在信号分析与处理中,常涉及的积分变换是傅里叶变换(FT)、傅里叶级数(FST)、傅里叶Z变换(FZT)及离散付里叶变换(DFT)。本文通过分析FT与FST、FZT、DFT的关系,提出一种基于FT计算FST、FZT、DFT的新算法,并通过例子说明这种算法的实用性。     

Improvement on polynomial Wigner-Ville distribution for detecting higher-order polynomial phase signal

To detect higher order polynomial phase signals (HOPPSs), the smoothed-pseudo polynomial Wigner-Ville distribution (SP-PWVD), an improved version of the polynomial Wigner-Ville distribution (PWVD), is pre-sented using a separable kernel. By adjusting the lengths of the functions in the kernel, the balance between resolution retaining and interference suppressing can be adjusted conveniently. The proposed method with merits of interference terms reduction and noise suppression can provide time frequency representation of better readability and more accurate instantaneous frequency (IF) estimation with higher order SP-PWVD. The performance of the SP-PWVD is verified by computer simulations.     

Total quality management in manufacturing: A study in the Singapore context

The paper presents a total quality management (TQM) framework combining the concepts underlying the notions of total quality control (TQC), Just in Time (JIT), manufacturing resource planning (MRP), and quality control circles (QCCs). An integrative model, in which these notions and the related issues are complementarily connected on the same logical plane is presented and it is argued that this is akin to the total systems intervention (TSI) approach in its endeavor to seek manufacturing excellence. It also has similarities to creative problem solving, especially with regard to corporate strategy, but here with an emphasis on the role of manufacturing. However, TQM is an idea of its own, and not a conceptual derivative of systems theory.     

镧(La)对辣根若干生态生理学指标的影响

以辣根为实验材料,研究不同浓度的La对辣根光合速率(Pn)、叶绿素含量(Chl)、过氧化物酶活性(POD)和丙二醛含量(MDA)的影响。结果表明:低浓度La对辣根的生长有一定的促进作用,高浓度La则出现抑制作用。表现为Pn和Chl显著(P<0.005)增加,POD活性和MDA含量显著(P<0.005)下降,且均在20mg/L处出现最值。La对辣根的临界浓度为20mg/L。表2,参16。     

论Petri网链路合成

提出了单链路的概念和链路合成网的概念;给出了自由选择网(FC),扩展自由选择网(EFC),强化非对称自由选择网(SAC),扩展强化非对称选择网(ESAC)和非对称选择网(AC)链路合成网为各自相应网的充分条件;提出了链路合成网保持结构活性的条件,按照条件对多个结构活的FC网,EFC网,SAC网,ESAC网,AC网以及一般的Petri网两两进行链路合成,最后可得到结构活的链路合成总网;链路合成的特色是合成条件容易判断,实用性强.研究结果可为Petri网系统合成的静态和动态性质的考察提供有效途径.     

An effective multiple criteria approach to infrastructure reconstruction in devastated countries

1. The Setting There are many countries worldwide suffering from the consequences of disasters and conflicts or wars, and they often have been inJOURNAL OF SYSTEMS SCIENCE AND SYSTEMS ENGINEERING 233 dire straits for long periods of time. The degradation of resources and utility services is a direct result of those conflicts. A concerted response from the international community to rehabilitate these countries to minimize their human tragedies is urgently needed and is growin…     

基于时变模型平均方法的我国航空客运量预测

机场扩建、政策导向、经济发展等外在因素的变化常常导致航空客运量数据发生结构性改变,其模型的设定也在很大程度上存在不确定性,因此,精准而稳定地预测航空客运量变得十分困难.为了解决以上问题,本文采用了一种时变模型平均方法(TVJMA)(Sun等,2020,2012)对全国Top 5机场的客运量进行了预测研究,该方法在模型平均时基于最小化局部Jackknife准则给出了最优的权重选择,并通过非参数估计,实现了最优权重随时间变化.实证结果表明,本文所采用的TVJMA方法显著优于其它基准模型,包括Hansen和Racine (2012)的Jackknife模型平均(JMA)以及自回归模型(AR),单整自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA),季节性单整自回归移动平均模型(SARIMA)和时变参数模型(TVP)等传统方法.进一步,对不同的预测步长,TVJMA在航空客运量的预测效果同样具有稳健性.因此,TVJMA方法可以有效地降低由于航空客运量的结构性变化和预测模型不确定性等导致的预测风险,进而做出精准而稳定的客运量预测.