A generalization of GIPSCAL for the analysis of nonsymmetric data

Graphical representation of nonsymmetric relationships data has usually proceeded via separate displays for the symmetric and the skew-symmetric parts of a data matrix. DEDICOM avoids splitting the data into symmetric and skewsymmetric parts, but lacks a graphical representation of the results. Chino's GIPSCAL combines features of both models, but may have a poor goodness-of-fit compared to DEDICOM. We simplify and generalize Chino's method in such a way that it fits the data better. We develop an alternating least squares algorithm for the resulting method, called Generalized GIPSCAL, and adjust it to handle GIPSCAL as well. In addition, we show that Generalized GIPSCAL is a constrained variant of DEDICOM and derive necessary and sufficient conditions for equivalence of the two models. Because these conditions are rather mild, we expect that in many practical cases DEDICOM and Generalized GIPSCAL are (nearly) equivalent, and hence that the graphical representation from Generalized GIPSCAL can be used to display the DEDICOM results graphically. Such a representation is given for an illustration. Finally, we show Generalized GIPSCAL to be a generalization of another method for joint representation of the symmetric and skew-symmetric parts of a data matrix.This research has been made possible by a fellowship from the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences to the first author, and by research grant number A6394 to the second author, from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. The authors are obliged to Jos ten Berge and Naohito Chino for stimulating comments.     

A mixture likelihood approach for generalized linear models

A mixture model approach is developed that simultaneously estimates the posterior membership probabilities of observations to a number of unobservable groups or latent classes, and the parameters of a generalized linear model which relates the observations, distributed according to some member of the exponential family, to a set of specified covariates within each Class. We demonstrate how this approach handles many of the existing latent class regression procedures as special cases, as well as a host of other parametric specifications in the exponential family heretofore not mentioned in the latent class literature. As such we generalize the McCullagh and Nelder approach to a latent class framework. The parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood, and an EM algorithm for estimation is provided. A Monte Carlo study of the performance of the algorithm for several distributions is provided, and the model is illustrated in two empirical applications.     

A latent class vector model for preference ratings

A latent class formulation of the well-known vector model for preference data is presented. Assuming preference ratings as input data, the model simultaneously clusters the subjects into a small number of homogeneous groups (or latent classes) and constructs a joint geometric representation of the choice objects and the latent classes according to a vector model. The distributional assumptions on which the latent class approach is based are analogous to the distributional assumptions that are consistent with the common practice of fitting the vector model to preference data by least squares methods. An EM algorithm for fitting the latent class vector model is described as well as a procedure for selecting the appropriate number of classes and the appropriate number of dimensions. Some illustrative applications of the latent class vector model are presented and some possible extensions are discussed. Geert De Soete is supported as “Bevoegdverklaard Navorser” of the Belgian “Nationaal Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek.”     

A latent class procedure for the structural analysis of two-way compositional data

This paper develops a new procedure for simultaneously performing multidimensional scaling and cluster analysis on two-way compositional data of proportions. The objective of the proposed procedure is to delineate patterns of variability in compositions across subjects by simultaneously clustering subjects into latent classes or groups and estimating a joint space of stimulus coordinates and class-specific vectors in a multidimensional space. We use a conditional mixture, maximum likelihood framework with an E-M algorithm for parameter estimation. The proposed procedure is illustrated using a compositional data set reflecting proportions of viewing time across television networks for an area sample of households.     

Constrained Multilevel Latent Class Models for the Analysis of Three-Way Three-Mode Binary Data

Probabilistic feature models (PFMs) can be used to explain binary rater judgements about the associations between two types of elements (e.g., objects and attributes) on the basis of binary latent features. In particular, to explain observed object-attribute associations PFMs assume that respondents classify both objects and attributes with respect to a, usually small, number of binary latent features, and that the observed object-attribute association is derived as a specific mapping of these classifications. Standard PFMs assume that the object-attribute association probability is the same according to all respondents, and that all observations are statistically independent. As both assumptions may be unrealistic, a multilevel latent class extension of PFMs is proposed which allows objects and/or attribute parameters to be different across latent rater classes, and which allows to model dependencies between associations with a common object (attribute) by assuming that the link between features and objects (attributes) is fixed across judgements. Formal relationships with existing multilevel latent class models for binary three-way data are described. As an illustration, the models are used to study rater differences in product perception and to investigate individual differences in the situational determinants of anger-related behavior.     

Separating Latent Classes by Information Criteria

This study evaluates performance of information criteria used to separate latent classes. In the evaluations, various numbers of latent classes, sample sizes, parameter structures and latent-class complexities were designed to simulate datasets. The average accuracy rates of information criteria in selecting the designed numbers of latent classes were the core results in this experiment. The study revealed that widely used information criteria, e.g., AIC, BIC, CAIC, could perform poorly under some circumstances. By including a sample size adjustment (Rissanen, 1978), the unsatis-factory performances could be improved considerably. The sample size adjustment provides a plausible solution for separating latent classes. Guidelines are provided to help achieve optimum use of the model fit indices.     

A latent class probit model for analyzing pick any/N data

A latent class probit model is developed in which it is assumed that the binary data of a particular subject follow a finite mixture of multivariate Bermoulli distributions. An EM algorithm for fitting the model is described and a Monte Carlo procedure for testing the number of latent classes that is required for adequately describing the data is discussed. In the final section, an application of the latent class probit model to some intended purchase data for residential telecommunication devices is reported. Geert De Soete is supported as “Bevoegdverklaard Navorser” of the Belgian “Nationaal Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek.”     

Adaptive Mixture Discriminant Analysis for Supervised Learning with Unobserved Classes

In supervised learning, an important issue usually not taken into account by classical methods is that a class represented in the test set may have not been encountered earlier in the learning phase. Classical supervised algorithms will automatically label such observations as belonging to one of the known classes in the training set and will not be able to detect new classes. This work introduces a model-based discriminant analysis method, called adaptive mixture discriminant analysis (AMDA), which can detect several unobserved groups of points and can adapt the learned classifier to the new situation. Two EM-based procedures are proposed for parameter estimation and model selection criteria are used for selecting the actual number of classes. Experiments on artificial and real data demonstrate the ability of the proposed method to deal with complex and real-world problems. The proposed approach is also applied to the detection of unobserved communities in social network analysis.     

古代目视天象记录中的尺度之研究

古代以“丈、尺、寸”为单位的天象记录以及“大如X”形式（取象比类）的记录是成系统的,可统称为古代天象记录的“尺度体系”。古人裸眼目视观测天象时亦有天球模型,通过天球模型的建立,按1尺＝1度的换算标准,可以确定“丈、尺、寸”天象记录的几何意义,并对“大如X”形式的记录进行尺度或亮度的量化,最后将两种记录统一在一个系统中。通过对尺寸系统起源的分析,认为古人裸眼目视观测时的天球半径约为13米上下。另从人本心理行为渊源、天文馆天象厅的半径、航海牵星术等多方面进行了论证。人裸眼目视观测天象时有共同的视错觉现象,形成系统误差,此误差是将天穹视为扁平状造成的。在不同的天空照度与气象条件下,其扁平程度有所不同,可引入“视扁度角”概念加以量化。为对视觉误差进行校正,求出了各种状况下（昼、夜、阴、晴、有月、无月）裸眼观测时天体视高度、视长度与其真实尺度的校正归算法。     

Dimensionally Reduced Model-Based Clustering Through Mixtures of Factor Mixture Analyzers

Dimensionally reduced model-based clustering methods are recently receiving a wide interest in statistics as a tool for performing simultaneously clustering and dimension reduction through one or more latent variables. Among these, Mixtures of Factor Analyzers assume that, within each component, the data are generated according to a factor model, thus reducing the number of parameters on which the covariance matrices depend. In Factor Mixture Analysis clustering is performed through the factors of an ordinary factor analysis which are jointly modelled by a Gaussian mixture. The two approaches differ in genesis, parameterization and consequently clustering performance. In this work we propose a model which extends and combines them. The proposed Mixtures of Factor Mixture Analyzers provide a unified class of dimensionally reduced mixture models which includes the previous ones as special cases and could offer a powerful tool for modelling non-Gaussian latent variables.     

Divisive Latent Class Modeling as a Density Estimation Method for Categorical Data

Traditionally latent class (LC) analysis is used by applied researchers as a tool for identifying substantively meaningful clusters. More recently, LC models have also been used as a density estimation tool for categorical variables. We introduce a divisive LC (DLC) model as a density estimation tool that may offer several advantages in comparison to a standard LC model. When using an LC model for density estimation, a considerable number of increasingly large LC models may have to be estimated before sufficient model-fit is achieved. A DLC model consists of a sequence of small LC models. Therefore, a DLC model can be estimated much faster and can easily utilize multiple processor cores, meaning that this model is more widely applicable and practical. In this study we describe the algorithm of fitting a DLC model, and discuss the various settings that indirectly influence the precision of a DLC model as a density estimation tool. These settings are illustrated using a synthetic data example, and the best performing algorithm is applied to a real-data example. The generated data example showed that, using specific decision rules, a DLC model is able to correctly model complex associations amongst categorical variables.     

A Nonparametric Approach to Cognitive Diagnosis by Proximity to Ideal Response Patterns

A trend in educational testing is to go beyond unidimensional scoring and provide a more complete profile of skills that have been mastered and those that have not. To achieve this, cognitive diagnosis models have been developed that can be viewed as restricted latent class models. Diagnosis of class membership is the statistical objective of these models. As an alternative to latent class modeling, a nonparametric procedure is introduced that only requires specification of an item-by-attribute association matrix, and classifies according to minimizing a distance measure between observed responses, and the ideal response for a given attribute profile that would be implied by the item-by-attribute association matrix. This procedure requires no statistical parameter estimation, and can be used on a sample size as small as 1. Heuristic arguments are given for why the nonparametric procedure should be effective under various possible cognitive diagnosis models for data generation. Simulation studies compare classification rates with parametric models, and consider a variety of distance measures, data generation models, and the effects of model misspecification. A real data example is provided with an analysis of agreement between the nonparametric method and parametric approaches.     

Cluster Differences Unfolding for Two-Way Two-Mode Preference Rating Data

Classification and spatial methods can be used in conjunction to represent the individual information of similar preferences by means of groups. In the context of latent class models and using Simulated Annealing, the cluster-unfolding model for two-way two-mode preference rating data has been shown to be superior to a two-step approach of first deriving the clusters and then unfolding the classes. However, the high computational cost makes the procedure only suitable for small or medium-sized data sets, and the hypothesis of independent and normally distributed preference data may also be too restrictive in many practical situations. Therefore, an alternating least squares procedure is proposed, in which the individuals and the objects are partitioned into clusters, while at the same time the cluster centers are represented by unfolding. An enhanced Simulated Annealing algorithm in the least squares framework is also proposed in order to address the local optimum problem. Real and artificial data sets are analyzed to illustrate the performance of the model.     

Estimation and Prediction for Stochastic Blockmodels for Graphs with Latent Block Structure

a posteriori blockmodeling for graphs is proposed. The model assumes that the vertices of the graph are partitioned into two unknown blocks and that the probability of an edge between two vertices depends only on the blocks to which they belong. Statistical procedures are derived for estimating the probabilities of edges and for predicting the block structure from observations of the edge pattern only. ML estimators can be computed using the EM algorithm, but this strategy is practical only for small graphs. A Bayesian estimator, based on the Gibbs sampling, is proposed. This estimator is practical also for large graphs. When ML estimators are used, the block structure can be predicted based on predictive likelihood. When Gibbs sampling is used, the block structure can be predicted from posterior predictive probabilities. A side result is that when the number of vertices tends to infinity while the probabilities remain constant, the block structure can be recovered correctly with probability tending to 1.     

Piecewise Regression Mixture for Simultaneous Functional Data Clustering and Optimal Segmentation

This paper introduces a novel mixture model-based approach to the simultaneous clustering and optimal segmentation of functional data, which are curves presenting regime changes. The proposed model consists of a finite mixture of piecewise polynomial regression models. Each piecewise polynomial regression model is associated with a cluster, and within each cluster, each piecewise polynomial component is associated with a regime (i.e., a segment). We derive two approaches to learning the model parameters: the first is an estimation approach which maximizes the observed-data likelihood via a dedicated expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, then yielding a fuzzy partition of the curves into K clusters obtained at convergence by maximizing the posterior cluster probabilities. The second is a classification approach and optimizes a specific classification likelihood criterion through a dedicated classification expectation-maximization (CEM) algorithm. The optimal curve segmentation is performed by using dynamic programming. In the classification approach, both the curve clustering and the optimal segmentation are performed simultaneously as the CEM learning proceeds. We show that the classification approach is a probabilistic version generalizing the deterministic K-means-like algorithm proposed in Hébrail, Hugueney, Lechevallier, and Rossi (2010). The proposed approach is evaluated using simulated curves and real-world curves. Comparisons with alternatives including regression mixture models and the K-means-like algorithm for piecewise regression demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.     

GRB060614伽马射线暴的潮汐瓦解吸积模型

GRB060614是一个非常特殊的γ-射线暴,它具有长的持续时间但并没有与之相伴的超新星爆发,这有别于目前确定的两类γ-射线暴（一类是长而软的γ-射线暴,对应于大质量恒星的塌缩爆发;另一类是短而硬的γ-射线暴,对应于两个致密星体的并合）。这个暴的出现使人们重新思考关于γ-射线暴的分类和中心引擎问题。我们提出这个异常的γ-射线暴产生于一个中等质量黑洞对恒星的吞噬过程。该模型能成功地解释此次γ-射线暴的能量、子暴和周期性子结构等主要观测特征。同时,模型可对中等质量黑洞的性质给出一些重要限制。因此,本研究提供了理解这一新类型γ-射线暴和稀有的中等质量黑洞的新途径。     

Power and Sample Size Computation for Wald Tests in Latent Class Models

Latent class (LC) analysis is used by social, behavioral, and medical science researchers among others as a tool for clustering (or unsupervised classification) with categorical response variables, for analyzing the agreement between multiple raters, for evaluating the sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic tests in the absence of a gold standard, and for modeling heterogeneity in developmental trajectories. Despite the increased popularity of LC analysis, little is known about statistical power and required sample size in LC modeling. This paper shows how to perform power and sample size computations in LC models using Wald tests for the parameters describing association between the categorical latent variable and the response variables. Moreover, the design factors affecting the statistical power of these Wald tests are studied. More specifically, we show how design factors which are specific for LC analysis, such as the number of classes, the class proportions, and the number of response variables, affect the information matrix. The proposed power computation approach is illustrated using realistic scenarios for the design factors. A simulation study conducted to assess the performance of the proposed power analysis procedure shows that it performs well in all situations one may encounter in practice.     

Invariants of phylogenies in a simple case with discrete states

Under a simple model of transition between two states, we can work out the probabilities of different data outcomes in four species with any given phylogeny. For a given tree topology, if all characters are evolving under the same probabilistic model, there are two quadratic forms in the frequencies of outcomes that must be zero. It may be possible to test the null hypothesis that the tree is of a particular topology by testing whether these quadratic forms are zero. One of the tests is a test for independence in a simple 2×2 contingency table. If there are differences of evolutionary rate among characters, these quadratic forms will no longer necessarily be zero.     

On the Identifiability in the Latent Budget Model

end-member model . A major drawback of the latent budget model is that, in general, the model is not identifiable, which complicates the interpretation of the model considerably. This paper studies the geometry and identifiability of the latent budget model. Knowledge of the geometric structure of the model is used to specify an appropriate criterion to identify the model. The results are illustrated by an empirical data set.     

Classification and Categorical Inputs with Treed Gaussian Process Models

Recognizing the successes of treed Gaussian process (TGP) models as an interpretable and thrifty model for nonparametric regression, we seek to extend the model to classification. Both treed models and Gaussian processes (GPs) have, separately, enjoyed great success in application to classification problems. An example of the former is Bayesian CART. In the latter, real-valued GP output may be utilized for classification via latent variables, which provide classification rules by means of a softmax function. We formulate a Bayesian model averaging scheme to combine these two models and describe a Monte Carlo method for sampling from the full posterior distribution with joint proposals for the tree topology and the GP parameters corresponding to latent variables at the leaves. We concentrate on efficient sampling of the latent variables, which is important to obtain good mixing in the expanded parameter space. The tree structure is particularly helpful for this task and also for developing an efficient scheme for handling categorical predictors, which commonly arise in classification problems. Our proposed classification TGP (CTGP) methodology is illustrated on a collection of synthetic and real data sets. We assess performance relative to existing methods and thereby show how CTGP is highly flexible, offers tractable inference, produces rules that are easy to interpret, and performs well out of sample.