简析中国大陆地震活动与余震活动特点

简要介绍了中国大陆地震活动的特点,显示中国大陆强震活动主要在包括南北地震带在内的中国西部地区,尤以青藏高原内部的地震活动最强.近年来7级以上大地震更多集中在巴颜喀喇地块边界附近.2014年5级以上地震主要分布在中国西部地区,南北地震带南段的川滇境内6级以上地震频发.余震活动及地震序列的分析显示,对于不同震型特点的强震序列,其地震序列的衰减特性和活动性参数具有不同特点.     

澜沧—耿马大震前兆信息Q值的研究

利用P波初动半周期测定介质品质因数Q值的方法,测定了澜沧(?)耿马大震前主震及其周围地区的Q值变化.根据该区域地质构造活动区域应力场分布的优势方向分析了澜沧7.6级、耿马7.2级两次大震的孕震过程,并结合对该地区划分的三个小区域Q值随时间的变化量,探讨了双主震型孕震的某些特征.     

云南强震余震活动序列与地震震区构造相关活动性特征

云南是我国多震省份之一,从有记载的地震记录中云南地区多次发生震级5.0以上的地震,云南地区位于青藏高原东缘,地区内有许多大的断裂带纵横交错,地质构造十分复杂,地震活动强烈,地震主要沿NE、NW和NS三组地震带分布。该地区的主应力轴方向为NNW,由西藏东部的岩壳向东南的推挤造成。余震的空间分布情况体现了区域自身的特点,同时更应注意的是与震区构造相互联系和彼此作用。文章讨论了70-80年云南发生的Ms﹥7.0级强震余震活动序列同震区构造的相关活动性特征来说明二者的关系。     

通海高大水位异常与地震分析

通过分析高大井2002年以来的资料,对多年来水位变化特征与观测井300 km范围内发生的5.0级以上地震前的异常形态进行分析发现,高大井水位在震前表现出趋势和短临变化特征,水位动态异常与观测点周围300 km范围的5.0级以上地震有较好的对应关系.     

岩石破裂过程中声发射模式的数值模拟

利用数值模拟软件RFPA2D对在单轴压缩加载条件下3种不同均质度的岩石试件破裂过程进行了模拟研究,讨论了整个破坏过程中的声发射时间序列和空间分布规律以及相关的震源特征和前兆异常等·实验结果表明,随着均质度的增加,岩石在主破裂之前非线性逐渐减弱而脆性逐渐增强·3个岩石试件的声发射规律分别表现出群震型、前震主震余震型和主震型3种模式,结果和地震观测到的地震模式有很好的一致性     

唐山大地震对相邻断裂段地震复发的影响

1976年7月28日沿NE向唐山断裂发生的7.8级大地震破裂很快触发了相邻断裂段上的3次强震.其中，被触发的滦县7.1级地震发生在唐山主震破裂NE端部外侧的近SN-NNE向滦县断裂段上.对历史地震资料的详细分析表明：滦县断裂段在1976年之前的400多年中发生过5次中强地震，复发过程表现出“时间可预报”行为，并可根据这种行为 “预测”第6次地震应大致发生在22世纪上半叶.然而，滦县断裂段在1976年唐山主震破裂后约15h即发生了一次7.1级地震，比“预测”的平均时间提前了约160年，强度上也明显超出该段的历史最高.这表明一个断裂段原有的、相对平稳的地震复发行为会因受到相邻断裂段大地震破裂的强烈影响而发生显著改变，并使复发过程呈现局部的非线性.相关的实验结果为此提供了一种物理解释.     

云南西北部强震前地震活动空间关联维的降维过程

 采用标度变换法,对云南省西北部地区地震活动空间分布的关联维进行了计算,得到了云南西北部不同时段的地震活动空间分布关联维的等值线图.讨论了强震发生前后震中地区关联维演变过程和空间分布特征随时间变化,结果显示,M≥6.0强震发生前存在不同形式的降维过程.     

月相变化与海城和唐山地震的孕育发生

海城和唐山地震的孕震期间,前兆异常区域内的较强地震趋于发生在朔望和上下弦,海城和唐山地震的主序列以及前兆异常区域内1900年以来发生的六级以上强震与月相也存在类似的相关。这些关系可以在地震预报中作参考。本文还对触发机制作了初步的探讨。     

断层总面积在祁连山中西段中强地震前的变化特征

用断层总面积理论对祁连山中西段自2000年以来发生的9次中强地震进行了研究,震例表明,在每个强震来临之前若干年∑(t)曲线均有一个显著的"峰"出现。这表明在强震来临之前,地震带或地震区上的地震活动性显著增高。发现在震前断层总面积有明显的∑(t)值高值异常显示,对断层总面积值随时间变化特征的分析表明,断层总面积值对祁连山地区Ms≥5.0级以上地震有较好的中短期预测效果。     

探讨与汶川地震有关的焦点科学问题

基于孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论和新划定的3.6版汶川地震区,再次探讨了与2008年汶川地震有关的若干科学问题,包括该震是否为主震?该震、2013年芦山MS7.0地震、2017年九寨沟M_S7.0地震之间关系?该震是否存在复发周期?该震发生前是否存在显著物理前兆?该震与紫坪铺水库之间关系?研究结果表明:汶川地震并非汶川地震区当前地震周期主震,未来将发生MS8.0~8.3标志性地震;2013年芦山地震和2017年九寨沟地震有直接联系且均与汶川地震密切相关,两者同为下一次标志性地震前的两次显著预震;汶川地震区标志性地震及其未来主震是否存在复发周期目前尚不能作出明确判断;在汶川地震前,由于自1995年12月18日后其震源体的物理状态长期保持近似不变,故不可能观测到显著的中长期与短临物理前兆;紫坪铺水库对汶川地震孕育过程的影响很小,可以忽略。     

Seismicity characteristics of the 2011 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis>9.0 Tohoku earthquake near the East Coast of Honshu in Japan

The spatiotemporal evolution of the M9.0 Tohoku earthquake sequence off the East Coast of Honshu in Japan on March 11,2011 and precursive seismic activity near the Japan Trench show that the earthquake sequence has foreshock-main shock-aftershock characteristics.Its foreshock sequence is characterized by a concentrated spatial distribution,low b value and the same focal mechanisms.Half an hour after the main shock,the two greatest aftershocks,with magnitudes of M7.9 and M7.7,occurred,followed by a rapid reduction in the strength of events.The aftershock activity was enhanced roughly two weeks and one month after the main event.This great earthquake ruptured bilaterally.Five hours after the main shock,the aftershock zone extended over a range that was 500 km in length and 300 km in width.A day later,the long axis of the aftershock area had expanded to about 600 km.Nine years prior to the 2011 earthquake,the seismicity in the location of the seismic source for this event enhanced significantly,with the extent of this area of enhanced seismicity being roughly equivalent to the aftershock zone.     

Focal mechanism analysis and parameter estimation of Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake from differential SAR interferometry

On 10 January, 1998 an earthquake of Ms=6.2occurred in the Zhangbei-Shangyi region of North China.The surface seismic deformation was measured in the previous study using the 3 pass ERS-1/2 SAR differential interferometric technology (D-INSAR). In this note the focal mechanism of Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake is estimated from the D-INSAR measurement of surface deformation based on a standard elastic dislocation model for seismic displacement. The inversion procedure is an iterative, linear least-squares algorithm. Through the relation between the focal parameters and displacement in the line of sight direction measured in the radar interferogram, the optimum focal parameter set is derived. The results show that the seismic fault of Zhangbei-Shangyi earthquake is a thrust fault dipping SW with a large right-lateral displacement component.The strike and dip are 95° and 30° respectively on a fault patch of 12 km long by 14 km wide. Its hypocenter is located at N40°58', E114°21', and 7.5 km in depth. The estimated slip vector is 0.728 m with a rake of 105.95°, the trend of slip is NW13.26°, and M0is 2.69×1018 N @ m.     

Variation of b value with hypocentral depth in Beijing area： Implications for earthquake nucleation

We relocated 2098 earthquakes that occurred in Beijing area between 1980 and 2000 using a double-difference (DD) earthquake location algorithm, and obtained the high-precision relative locations of 1825 events, b values versus depth were investigated with the relocated hypocenters. The results show that the b values decrease with the increasing hypocentral depth systematically. A dramatic variation in b is observed around the depth of 8 km. It indicates that there are more smaller earthquakes at shallow depth (0-8 km), while more larger earthquakes at greater depth (8--25 km). The physical mechanism behind this phenomenon can be explained by the variations in material heterogeneity and lithostatic stress condition. Large earthquakes are more likely to nucleate at greater depth with more homogenous material and higher lithostatic stress. On the basis of the results, we suggest that future strong earthquakes in Beijing area tend to occur below the depth of 8 km.     

大地震时空窗口研究

 依据《地震应可预测》一书收录的自中国初建电信传输台网以来,涉及近半个世纪的地震活动性图像,震级跨度自M3.0—M4.0级中强震至M8.0级大震,着眼于地震大尺度的观点,将中国地震的活动性图像置于全球地震活动框架中进行分析研究。认识到大地震不是任何地方都能发生的,大地震不是任何时间都能发生的,大地震有其特定的时空结构。条环交会、差异活动和深震与天外来客事件等是制约发震时空窗口的主要因素。条带与圆环的交会基本上有三种类型：条带与条带、圆环与圆环以及条带与圆环。研究了空区的特征形态,认为似用屈曲传递动力的组合环节以解释可能更为合适。因之重点应着眼于对其两者(活跃与平静)的差异性组合。鉴于大地震发震时刻窗口经常处在天外来客的节点上,因之我们尚需关注那些非随机的天外来客事件。本文阐述了制约发震时空窗口的诸多因素,这些因素也已在2011年3月11日M9.0东北日本大地震观测中得到了印证。     

“311”东北日本M9.0大地震可预测性特征探索

 大地震不是任何地方都能发生的,大地震也不是任何时间都能发生的,大地震有其特定的时空结构。前期工作表明,条环交会、差异活动以及深震与“天外来客”事件等是制约发震时空窗口的主要因素。2011年3月11日发生在日本海沟俯冲带的M9.0大地震,其震前地震活动全面、清晰地展现出了其可预测性特征：(1) 1925年开始出现的板间地震长期平静区;(2) 2003年开始出现的位于平静区中部,起始于深震的海沟垂向地震活动条带;(3) 2009年3月(海沟垂向地震活动条带形成后)开始出现的广义前震发震地方时的非随机显著聚集特征;(4) 2011年3月9日(主震前2天)发生在平静区内的前震。主震发生在平静区边缘,海沟垂向地震活动条带与日本海沟板间地震带的交会处的地震活动差异性较大的地方,其断层面与海沟垂向地震活动条带内另外两个板间地震(2005-08-16地震和前震)的断层面共面。主震发生于广义前震发震地方时非随机聚集时段的中位时辰。日本大地震的可预测性特征逐一印证了我们的前期研究。     

用非均匀速度模型对汶川8.0级地震余震重新定位

为了进一步探讨龙门山断裂带深部结构,根据四川省地震局提供的地震原始资料,采用Hypo 2000对汶川大地震以及震后M≥2.0级余震进行重新定位。从2008年5月12日汶川发生8.0级大地震后,截止到2011年4月15日,获得了26 278个地震记录。重新定位后对结果的总结为:(1)主震发生在龙门山推覆构造带中央断裂中段的北川-映秀断裂上,余震主要沿龙门山断裂带方向延伸,呈南北分段分布。重新定位后的到时残差为±0.35s,水平误差为±1.32km,深度误差为±5km。(2)在主震附近的映秀、理县和黑水有一条北西向的余震带与龙门山断裂带的捩断层一致。(3)在青川附近(龙门山断裂带的北端),此段成为余震密集地区,这与历史上此地很少有地震发生不吻合。     

九寨沟Ms 7.0级地震的左旋走滑作用与动力机制

2017年8月8日四川九寨沟发生的Ms 7.0级地震是继2008年汶川Ms 8.0地震、2013年芦山Ms 7.0级地震后在青藏高原东缘发生的又一次强震。本文通过综合分析九寨沟Ms 7.0级地震及历史地震的震源机制解、余震和历史地震分布、区域应力场、活动断层等资料,来揭示九寨沟地震的发震构造与动力机制。初步研究结果表明:(1)此次地震的震中位于塔藏断裂、岷江断裂和虎牙断裂之间的交汇区,显示活动断裂的交汇区对此次地震的发生具有控制作用;(2)发震断裂为虎牙断裂,断裂走向为北西西向,倾向南西,倾角较陡,属于高倾角左旋走滑型地震;(3)震中位于虎牙断裂北段的北部地震空区,充填了1973年和1976年4次大于Mw6.0级地震空区;(4)此次地震位于2008年汶川Ms 8.0级地震的库仑应力增加区,应是汶川地震的应力传递和触发的结果;(5)此次地震位于巴颜喀拉块体的东北部顶角区,青藏高原东缘下地壳流向北东方向的挤出是驱动此次地震的动力机制。     

Slip model for the 2011 M_w 9.0 Sendai （Japan） earthquake and its M_w 7.9 aftershock derived from GPS data

Using GPS-measured coseismic and post-seismic displacements for the 8 h following the M w 9.0 Sendai earthquake of March 11, 2011, coseismic and post-seismic fault slip models were developed based on a layered crustal model. The geodetic moment magnitude of the main shock was measured as approximately M w 8.98. The slip exhibits clear reverse characteristics, with a maximum near the hypocenter, and a magnitude of about 23.3 m. Some strike-slip behavior may occur on the two sides of the peak rupture zone. Almost 90% of the seismic moments released by the main shock occurred at depths less than 40 km. The energy released by the fault slip in the 8 h following the main shock is approximately equal to an earthquake of M w 8.13. With a maximum of ~1.5 m, the post-seismic slip was concentrated in the southwestern part of the coseismic rupture fault, which agrees well with the location and behavior of the M w 7.9 aftershock. This implies that the post-seismic deformation in the 8 h after the main shock was mainly induced by the M w 7.9 aftershock. In addition, a post-seismic slip of 0.2-0.4 m was observed at the down-dip extension of the coseismic rupture, which may have been caused by the effect of after-slip during this period.     

Remote triggering of deep earthquakes in the 2002 Tonga sequences

It is well established that an earthquake in the Earth's crust can trigger subsequent earthquakes, but such triggering has not been documented for deeper earthquakes. Models for shallow fault interactions suggest that static (permanent) stress changes can trigger nearby earthquakes, within a few fault lengths from the causative earthquake, whereas dynamic (transient) stresses carried by seismic waves may trigger earthquakes both nearby and at remote distances. Here we present a detailed analysis of the 19 August 2002 Tonga deep earthquake sequences and show evidence for both static and dynamic triggering. Seven minutes after a magnitude 7.6 earthquake occurred at a depth of 598 km, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake (664 km depth) occurred 300 km away, in a previously aseismic region. We found that nearby aftershocks of the first mainshock are preferentially located in regions where static stresses are predicted to have been enhanced by the mainshock. But the second mainshock and other triggered events are located at larger distances where static stress increases should be negligible, thus suggesting dynamic triggering. The origin times of the triggered events do not correspond to arrival times of the main seismic waves from the mainshocks and the dynamically triggered earthquakes frequently occur in aseismic regions below or adjacent to the seismic zone. We propose that these events are triggered by transient effects in regions near criticality, but where earthquakes have difficulty nucleating without external influences.