Key points on temperature change of the past 2000 years in China

Itisimportanttostudythetemperaturechangeduringthepast 2 0 0 0 yearsforunderstandingtheis suessuchasthegreenhouseeffectandglobalwarminginducedbyhumanactivities .Chinahasadvantagesinreconstructinghistoricalclimatechangeforitsabun dantdocumentedhistoricalrecordsandothernaturalevidenceobtainedfromtreerings ,lakesediments ,icecores ,andstalagmite .SinceDr .Chulaidafounda tiononthestudyoftemperaturechangeinChinaforthepast 5 0 0 0 years[1] ,significantprogressinthestudyoftemperaturechangeofthepast 2…     

Reconstruction of temperature series in China for the last 5000 years

A temperature series with a 100 year resolution for the last 5000 years in China has been reconstructed by using 31 long-term temperature proxy series selected from recent publications in the last 20 years. The proxy records include pollens, stalagmites, lake-sediments, peat, ice cores and historical documents. The result reveals that in the millennial scale temperature variation it was warm in 3050-250 BC and it was cold in 250 BC-1950 AD. In the above two periods there were many stages of sub-scale temperature fluctuations. The result also shows an obvious temperature discrepancy on the century to multi-century scale between the Eastern Monsoon Region, the Qinghai-Tibet Region and the Northwestern Region in 2850 BC, 2350 BC, 1350 BC, 950-350 BC, 50-250 AD, and 550 AD. A comparison between the reconstructed series of this paper and some North Hemisphere temperature series indicates that in the long-term scale change, the temperature change in China is in phrase with that of the Northern Hemisphere during the last 5000 years, while on the century to multi-century scale there are differences at the beginning and end times, which may imply that temperature change does not occur simultaneously in different regions.     

New evidence for the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau as a pilot region of climatic fluctuation in China

Over 40 a observed temperature data in 172 stations in China and historical proxy data were analyzed. Evidence suggested that during 1980–1994, the warmest year appeared first in southeastern part of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau (henceforth SETP) and then gradually spread northwards and eastwards to eastern China. The climatic change on century time scale in recent 600 a shows 3 relatively warm and clod stages in China. Each warm and cold stage appeared first in Tibet Plateau (henceforth TP) and then in the Qilian Mountains, then in the eastern parts of China. The warm and cold stages in TP were 10–60 a earlier than in the eastern China. The facts show that TP is a pilot region of climatic fluctuation in China on the time scale shorter than 10³a.     

联合气象地温资料分析北京地区的气候变化

 利用1954—2006年北京地区0.8、1.6、3.2m深度的逐月平均地温资料,得到其年平均地温并与相应的气温数据进行对比,分析其变化规律。通过气候倾向率对比分析,初步给出了该地区50年来平均地温和气温的变化趋势,发现该地区的浅层地温和气温均有所增加,近年来增加幅度增大。小波分析发现,该地区浅层地温和气温同时存在约10年和15年多重周期变化特征,且均在20世纪70年代初和80年代末发生温度突变。利用世界气象组织判断气候异常的标准得到浅层地温和气温的温度异常年份。这些结果有助于从新的角度（气温联合浅层地温）分析北京地区的气候变化。     

宁夏冬季气温变化与大气环流异常的关系

利用1961~2015年冬季(12月到次年2月)宁夏20个气象站月平均气温资料,NCEP/NCAR发布的500 h Pa位势高度场和海平面气压场,200 h Pa、850 h Pa风场月平均再分析资料,运用线性倾向估计、M-K法及合成分析等方法,在研究宁夏冬季平均气温的年际变化及年代际变化特征的基础上,分突变前后的冷、暖期时段进一步分析大气环流场不同影响因子与宁夏冬季气温异常的关系,揭示宁夏冬季气温异常的成因。结果表明:(1)宁夏冬季平均气温由冷变暖的趋势非常显著,在1985年之前为冷期,1985年以后为暖期;冬季平均气温年代际变化在20世纪增暖趋势显著,21世纪后上升趋势趋于平缓。(2)不仅500 h Pa位势高度场的乌拉尔山高压脊和西太平洋副高是影响宁夏冬季气温异常的主要系统,海平面气压场的西伯利亚高压也是影响宁夏冬季气温异常的关键系统;高低空的偏北气流和偏南暖湿气流异常流场也对宁夏冬季气温变化造成一定影响。     

High-resolution climate evolution derived from the sediment records of Erlongwan Maar Lake since 14 ka BP

Varve counts with AMS 14 C,137 Cs and 210 Pb dating of sediments(0-900 cm) from Erlongwan Maar Lake,NE China were used to establish a high-resolution chronology series for the late Quaternary.Dry density,total organic carbon(TOC) content,total nitrogen(TN) content,TOC/TN ratios and stable organic carbon isotope(13 C org) ratios were continuously analyzed on this sediment profile.On the basis of lithological characters,sporo-pollen assemblages and geochemical analyses,we identified 6 climate stages within the last 14 ka BP.The time before the Holocene(14-11.4 ka BP) represents a higher-order oscillation climatic transitional period(I).The entire Holocene climate development(from 11.4 ka BP to present) exhibited an increasing temperature trend,although there were cold and warm alternations(II-VI).The periods included were:II(11.4-9.05 ka BP) warm-wet stage,III(9.05-7.4 ka BP) cold and warm fluctuation stage,IV(7.4-4.2 ka BP) smoothly warming climate stage,V(4.2-1.67 ka BP) climate optimum stage,and VI(from 1.67 ka BP to present) cool and drier stage.Each climate stage began with a warming event and ended with an abrupt cooling event.This climate change cycle had unequal time spaces that were progressively shorter over time.Several abrupt climate shifts occurred at about 9.4-9.05,8.5-8.2,7.8-7.4,4.6-4.2,3.7-3.25,2-1.67 and 0.3-0.03 ka BP.Thus,it can be seen that the climate has been warming since 1920 AD,which indicates a new climate stage.     

论"五四"新文学潮流的整体性和阶段性--兼及"五四"新文学传统的革命意义

"五四新文学潮流"经历了兴起(1917-1927)、发展(1927-1937)和延续(1937-1949)三个阶段,但都统一于"五四新文学潮流"的整体之中,具有"五四新文学潮流"的整体性和发展的阶段性.更加深刻地认识和发扬"五四新文学"传统的革命意义,将深化我们对20世纪中国文学的认识和研究.     

广东冬末春初冷暖变化时空分布特征及类型

利用主分量分析方法对广东省1954-2000年1～3月气温进行统计分析，计算该时期气温场时空分布特征及分布的主要类型，同时对典型冷暖年份分析了500hPa环流形势特征。结果表明：①广东1-3月气温分布从东南向西北减低；②有4种分布类型：即全省型，南北型，相间型，西、西南和其它地区型；③全省性特暖年数量变化趋势为：20世纪50年代没有特暖年，以后随年代增加，到90年代特暖年明显增多；两个典型全省性冷暖年的亚洲月平均500hPa西风环流指数有明显差异.     

1951—2015年信阳极端温度事件变化及其对全球变暖的响应

利用1951—2015年信阳市日最高和日最低气温资料,根据事件发生概率密度函数大于90%(或小于10%)的标,准定义了信阳市逐年的冷夜日数、暖夜日数、暖昼日数和冷昼日数.在此基础上,运用统计学方法分析了过去65年信阳市极端温度事件的变化特征及其对气候变化的敏感程度.结果表明:(1)1951—2015年信阳市年平均气温呈显著增暖趋势,变暖速率为2.0℃/100a;(2)过去65年信阳市冷夜日数以4.4d/10a的速率呈显著减少趋势(p<0.001),暖夜日数则以8.3d/10a速率显著增加(p<0.001),且其增加速率大于冷夜日数减少速率;暖昼日数以1981年为界呈先减少后增加的变化趋势,1951-1981年减少趋势为-11.6d/10a,1982-2015年增加趋势为13.7d/10a;过去65年冷昼日数年际变化不明显但年代震荡强烈;(3)信阳市极端温度事件对气候变化的响应程度呈不对称性.年均温每升高1℃,相当于冷夜日数和冷昼日数分别减少18.7d和12.5d,暖夜和暖昼日数分别增加26.9d和18.3d.在相同的气候背景下,暖夜日数对气候变化最为敏感,而冷昼日数对气候变化的敏感度最低.     

Climate in China during the four special periods in Holocene

Characteristics of temperature over China during the four special periods in the Holocene, i.e. the Megathermal, the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age and the Modem Warm Period, are analyzed. The Megath-ermal period was 8.5—3.0 kaBP.the maximum temperature appeared at about 5.5—6.0 ka and 7.0 kaBP, while the temperatures were about 2X1 above the average of the latest one hundred years. During the Medieval Warm Period, from the late 9th century to the 13th century, the temperatures were warmer over eastern China. Some maximum temperatures were close to the mean value in 1880s—1970s. However, the climate in the 12th century was cold. Over the west part of China, temperatures did not show the same features as that over the east except the moderate warmth appeared during the second half of the 9th century. There were five cold spells in China during the last millennium; in the early 12th, 14th and 16th centuries, the late of 15th century, the 17th and 19th centuries. In these cold periods, the last three spells can be considered as the Little Ice Age of China, the minimum of temperature anomaly was below - 1.01 and - 0.51 for the 10 years' and 30—50 years' mean respectively. The 20th century was the warmest in the last 12 centuries, and was 0.5t wanner than the last 1200 year's mean. During the last one hundred years, the warmest period appeared in 1920s—1940s, but the highest annual temperature occurred in 1998 in which the temperature anomaly was + 1.38t with respect to the mean temperaure of 1961s—1990s.     

徐州近百年来冷暖变化的特点

本文分析了一九零五至一九八五年徐州气温观测资料,认为本世纪四十年代是徐州气候变化的转折点,气候由暖逐渐变冷的特点十分明显。据专家们估计,未来气候将由冷再向暖方向发展。在讨论冷暖变化时,城市环境的改变对气候影响是一个不可忽视的问题。     

新中国前期蔡仪美学述略

20世纪50、60年代,是蔡仪美学的转型与自我改造期,为20世纪后期中国美学提供了最早的蓝本。《唯心主义批判集》标志着蔡仪美学的转型,《文学概论》自觉吸收了毛泽东《在延安文艺座谈会上的讲话》精神,对其20世纪前期美学思想进行了大的改造。与其前期成就相比,蔡仪先生本时期没能有大的理论作为,但对新中国前期美学客观上有重要贡献。     

A comparison of the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and 20th century warming simulated by the FGOALS climate system model

To compare differences among the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), Little Ice Age (LIA), and 20th century global warming (20CW), six sets of transient and equilibrium simulations were generated using the climate system model FGOALS_gl. This model was developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The results indicate that MWP warming is evident on a global scale, except for at mid-latitudes of the North Pacific. However, the magnitude of the warming is weaker than that in the 20th century. The warming in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere is stronger than that in the Southern Hemisphere. The LIA cooling is also evident on a global scale, with a strong cooling over the high Eurasian continent, while the cooling center is over the Arctic domain. Both the MWP and the 20CW experiments exhibit the strongest warming anomalies in the middle troposphere around 200?C300 hPa, but the cooling center of the LIA experiment is seen in the polar surface of the Northern Hemisphere. A comparison of model simulation against the reconstruction indicates that model??s performance in simulating the surface air temperature changes during the warm periods is better than that during the cold periods. The consistencies between model and reconstruction in lower latitudes are better than those in high latitudes. Comparison of the inter-annual variability mode of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall during the MWP, LIA and 20CW reveals a similar rainfall anomalies pattern. However, the time spectra of the principal component during the three typical periods of the last millennium are different, and the quasi-biannual oscillation is more evident during the two warm periods. At a centennial time scale, the external mode of the EASM variability driven by the changes of effective solar radiation is determined by the changes of large scale land-sea thermal contrast. The rainfall anomalies over the east of 110°E exhibit a meridional homogeneous change pattern, which is different from the meridional out-of-phase change of rainfall anomalies associated with the internal mode.     

论中苏争论中邓小平的角色

在20世纪50年代中期开始,中国共产党和苏联共产党两党出现争论和分歧,进而发展到60年代的大论战,并最终导致中国共产党和苏联共产党两党关系的中断和两国关系的严重倒退。邓小平在这些论战中,他作为中方主帅之一,扮演了重要角色,起到了举足轻重的作用,以其聪明才智为中国的外交事业作出了杰出贡献。     

朔城区近53年气温变化特征分析

根据朔城区气象局1957—2009年近53年的气温序列资料,分析了朔城区年平均气温、各季节平均气温、平均最高、最低气温及极端最高、最低气温变化特征。结果表明：近53年来朔城区气候分为冷、暖两个阶段,以20世纪90年代中期为界,前为冷期,后为暖期。年和季的平均气温都呈上升趋势,20世纪90年代中期以来这种趋势尤为明显。     

Environmental changes reflected by n-alkanes of lake core in Nam Co on the Tibetan Plateau since 8.4 kaB.P.

The n-alkanes are extracted from NMLC-1 core that was drilled in the Nam Co, central Tibet. They are measured by using Gas Chromatography and Mass Spectrometry （GC/MS） for componential and quantitative analyses. According to the constructed depth-age model, the component and concentration of n-alkanes, together with total organic carbon （TOC）, total nitrogen （TN） and carbonate are used to elucidate palaeoenvironmental changes of Nam Co during the past 8.4 ka. The results indicate that Holocene environment performs three stages in the lake area. In the stage of 8.4-6.7 kaB.P., it was warmer while precipitation slightly increased. This stage was ended by an obvious cold/dry event. During 6.7-5.8 kaB.P., temperature increased rapidly and reached its maximum values at about 6.0 kaB.P. The environments were warm/wet optimum for the blooming of terrestrial plants and submerged aquatic plants. After that, temperature decreased continuously and showed the lowest values at about 3.0 kaB.P. From 2.9 kaB.P, to the present, temperature rose again but alternated with cold and warm. The lake area tended to be dry after 1.4 kaB.P. During 600-400 aB.P., the environmental feature was the reflection of ＂Little Ice Age＂.     

中国现代文学学科的形成和研究述略

作为学科的中国现代文学于20世纪20年代初现端倪,50年代正式形成,并在20世纪后期得到了长足的发展。数代学者对中国现代文学这门年轻学科的发展作出了重要贡献,他们各自在文学史研究、作家作品研究、文体研究和社团、流派、思潮、创作群体研究方面取得了重要成就。     

北极新奥尔松地区环境演变的沉积记录

分析了北极新奥尔松地区伦敦岛的湖泊沉积物L1的16种元素(Hg、Se、Cd、As、Cu、Zn、P、Fe、Ti、K、Mn、Ca、Mg、Na、Si、Al)及TOC(总有机碳)的含量.结果表明:沉积物表层5 cm部分Hg、Se、Cd等重金属元素的污染主要是由20世纪以来新奥尔松煤矿开采活动引起的;而5 cm以下部分属于自然沉积.同时,发现最表层的Hg、Se、Cd含量有降低趋势,很可能是新奥尔松煤矿的关闭导致煤灰沉积的减少.计算了ICV等元素比值,其结果揭示了新奥尔松地区的化学风化作用十分微弱,过去几千年来,该地区气候环境经历了相对暖湿-寒冷-相对暖湿的阶段.     

1970～2012年青海湖流域冷暖季气温变化特征及突变分析

本文以线性倾向估计、累积距平、小波分析、Mann-Kendall检验及滑动t检验等方法对青海湖流域1970~2012冷、暖季及年均气温变化趋势、周期性和突变性进行分析.结果表明:(1)青海湖流域冷、暖季气温及年平均气温均呈显著增长趋势,其中,冷季增长幅度最大(0.45℃/10a),暖季增长最平缓(0.22℃/10a);从各站点的年、季气温变化来看,恰不恰地区增温幅度最大,刚察增幅最小.(2)冷、暖季气温及年均温的累积距平值绝大多数为负值,变化趋势相对一致,以1997年为转折点,1997年之前气候偏冷,之后趋于变暖.其中,年均气温变化幅度最小,冷季变化幅度最大.(3)冷、暖季和全年均存在较为复杂的周期性变化,其中,年平均气温在整个时间序列上存在4a和15a的周期,以15a最为显著;冷、暖季平均气温在短时间尺度上周期性不显著,主要为17a和27a的长时间尺度周期,以17a的变化周期最显著.(4)青海湖流域冷、暖季气温和年平均气温经检验均发生了突变,其中,年平均气温发生于90年代前期,冷、暖季均发生于90年代中期,且均于90年代末进入显著增温阶段.     

从MWP看20世纪全球变暖

气候变暖已引起全球的广泛关注,正确的认识当前的气候变化已成为亟待解决的问题．目前的主流观点虽然认为近几十年的升温是由人类活动导致的,但许多学者发现MWP时期的气温与现代相当甚至更暖．结合国内外学者对MWP的研究,对比了MWP与现代暖期的温暖程度,指出20世纪暖期并不是过去千年最暖的世纪,现代升温可能只是气候冷暖波动中的一次自然现象,是uA过后的正常回暖．因此对MWP的认识对于人们深入认识当前全球变暖的性质和原因,具有十分重要的意义．