Ecosystem valuation and the conservation of wild lands in vigorous economic regions:A case study in Jiuduansha Wetland,Shanghai

As the loss of wild lands to satisfy traditional economic development has become a global environmental problem in recent decades, using ecosystem valuation to estimate the total economic value (TEV) of an ecosystem has become popular. The main purpose of the ecosystem valuation is to strengthen the importance of ecosystems, and bring the ecosystem services into the traditional cost-benefit analyses of land use strategy. Some studies have illustrated that in remote areas, wilderness can produce more value if it is conserved, rather than converted to traditional agricultural or industrial uses. The same situation does not seem to exist in vigorous economic regions. Thus, a case study was conducted on the Jiuduansha Wetland in Shanghai using three approaches: the direct market valuation, the replacement valuation and the contingent valuation. The net present TEVs of three land use scenarios over one hundred years were evaluated. The results proved that simply based on ecosystem valuation, when compared with the other two scenarios of "conservation" and "selective use", "partial conversion into terrene (dry land)" of Jiuduansha might be the optimal scenario for the well-being of the people in Shanghai. Land price was identified as the most important factor. This situation is likely due to the scarcity of land available for traditional economic development in Shanghai. Thus, we speculated that the fate of the wilderness to "be destroyed" in vigorous economic regions could not be changed simply based on ecosystem valuation. However, the variety of interest by local residents in wilderness might enhance the TEVs of scenarios such as "conservation" and "selective use", and affect the valuation results. Since some important benefits of natural ecosystems remain unknown and others are underestimated, we suggested that any land use decisions regarding the Jiuduansha Wetland should be conservative and cautious as converting wetlands into terrene is an irreversible process.     

Analysis on the Spatio-Temporal Changes of Sustainable Land Use in Tibet

By constructing evaluation indicator system of sustainable land use of Tibet from three aspects of ecological environment, economic development, resources and social advancement, this article studies the following contents respectively in two dimensions of time and space： the changes of sustainable land use of Tibet in recent 20 years and spatial characteristics of sustainable land use of Tibet in 2002. The following conclusions can be drawn from evaluation results .① With regard to com- prehensive evaluation value of sustainable land use, the trend of Tibet sustainable land use evaluation values from 1983 to 2002 are very close to the comprehensive evaluation values of ecological environment, which is up trend; ② sustainable utilization degree of land use in eastern region of Tibet is much higher than that of western region. ③ the sustainable land use evaluation value of Nyingtri County is the highest, and the counties with relatively higher land sustainable use values include Lhasa, Lhoka, Chamdo. While Nakchu, Ngari, Shigatse counties have the relatively lower evaluation values; ④ By analyzing each evaluation indicator＇s weight on sustainable land use, it can be concluded that the key limiting factors of sustainable Tibet land resource utilization are land desertification, grassland degradation and low economic level.     

Scenario simulation and forecast of land use/cover in northern China

Modeling land use/cover scenario changes and its potential impacts on structure and functions of ecosystem in typical regions are helpful to understanding the interactive mechanism between land use/cover system and ecosystem. Based on the analysis of the existing land use/cover simulation and forecast models, a land use/cover scenario dynamics model by the integration of System Dynamics （SD） model, Back Propagation Neural Network （BPNN） and Cellular Automata （CA） model is developed with land use/cover scenario changes in northern China in the next 30 years and simulated in this paper. The model is to simulate the land use/cover scenario demands by using a SD model at first, and then allocating the land use scenario patterns at the local scale with the considerations of land use/cover suitability, inheritance ability and neighborhood effect by using BPNN-CA model to satisfy the balance between land use/cover scenario demands and supplies. It integrates the advantages of SD, BPNN and CA. Macro-driving factors and the micro-spatial pattern are also fully taken into account. The BPNN simplifies the identification of the factors＇ weights used in CA model and improves the reliability of the simulation results. The simulation accuracy of the model developed in this paper was found to be about 74%. It suggests that the model has the ability to reflect the complexity of land use/cover system at different scales to some extent and it is a useful tool for assessing the potential impacts of land use system on ecosystem. The simulated results also indicate that the urban land, water area and forest will increase significantly, and farmland and unable land will decrease gradually. Obvious land use/cover changes will take place in the farming-pastoral zone and the southeast area of northern China.     

Effects of Land Use Change on the Ecosystem Services Value in the Dry-Hot Valley

The objective of the study reported here was to determine whether LANDSAT TM images could be used to quantify changes in land-use and ecosystem services in Yuanmou County. The sizes of six land use/land cover （LUCC） categories were estimated in Yuanmou County according to the LANDSAT TM images in the summer of 1986 and 2005. Coefficients published by Xie Gaodi and co-workers in 2003 were used to value changes in ecosystem services delivered by each land use/land cover category, and the ecosystem services sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the effect of manipulating these coefficients on the estimated values. The important results are summarized as followings. （1） The estimated size of cultivated land, pasture land, water area and unused land decreased by 6.39%, 1.35%, 2.25% and 10.67% respectively between 1986 and 2005. By contrast, the estimated size of forest land and construction land increased by about 2.23% and 71.15% respectively between 1986 and 2005. （2） The total ecosystem services value （EVS） of the study area increased from 2 142 132 609.46 yuan to 2 146 416 621.00 yuan, with the net increase of 4 284 011.54 yuan during the 20-year time period. （3） The coefficient sensitivity （CS） of the study are less than unity in all cases （CS 〈 1）. This indicates that the total ecosystem values estimated for the study area are relatively inelastic with respect to the ecosystem service coefficients. While this implies that our estimates are robust and the coefficient is reasonable, highly under or over valued coefficients can substantially affect the veracity of estimated changes in ecosystem service values overtime even when the CS are less than unity（CS 〈 1）.     

Ecological Footprint and Ecological Security Evaluation in the Upper Min River Basin

On the basis of the ecological footprint (EF) model, this paper studied the ecological security in the Upper Min River Basin ecosystem. The result shows that with 2. 038 2hm^2 per capita ecological capacity (0.422 2hm^2 higher than per capita EF), and 165 825hm^2 ecology surplus, the ecosystem in Upper Min River is generally secure at present. But the arable land is overweighed and omens an ecosecurity crisis. Meanwhile, problems such as low forest coverage rate, severe loss of water and soil, enlargement of aridvalley area, frequent occurrence of mountain hazards and degradation of pastures have been major threats to the eco-security of this region. The calculation result of ten thousand-yuan (RMB) GDP shows that the use of natural resources is extensive, and there will be a rapid increase tendency of EF in the future. In order to maintain the present eco-security, the ways of use natural resources must be improved in the Upper Min River Basin.     

Meta-analysis and its application in global change research

Meta-analysis is a quantitative synthetic research method that statistically integrates results from in- dividual studies to find common trends and differences. With increasing concern over global change, meta-analysis has been rapidly adopted in global change research. Here, we introduce the methodolo- gies, advantages and disadvantages of meta-analysis, and review its application in global climate change research, including the responses of ecosystems to global warming and rising CO2 and O3 concentrations, the effects of land use and management on climate change and the effects of distur- bances on biogeochemistry cycles of ecosystem. Despite limitation and potential misapplication, meta-analysis has been demonstrated to be a much better tool than traditional narrative review in synthesizing results from multiple studies. Several methodological developments for research synthe- sis have not yet been widely used in global climate change researches such as cumulative meta-analysis and sensitivity analysis. It is necessary to update the results of meta-analysis on a given topic at regular intervals by including newly published studies. Emphasis should be put on multi-factor interaction and long-term experiments. There is great potential to apply meta-analysis to global climate change research in China because research and observation networks have been established (e.g. ChinaFlux and CERN), which create the need for combining these data and results to provide support for governments’ decision making on climate change. It is expected that meta-analysis will be widely adopted in future climate change research.     

GMOs： The new hotspot in ecological research

Gene flow is an important ecological and genetic process, and the fitness conferred by the insertion of a foreiga gene could be important in ecology after it becomes introgressed into the wild genetic background of organisms,which is the determinative factor for the fate of GMOs or foreign genes in natural ecosystem and for the competition with native species. Trophic interrelation fulfilled by food chains is the most important correlation between species in ecosystem and could be affected by the modified genotypes after the introduction of GMOs. The technology enabling the precise manipulation of genotype is a great opportunity for the stndy of ecological genetics in an unknown way prior to the biotechnology era. Especially interesting is the impact of genes on ecosystem function when GMOs are released into environment. A variety of ecological terminology has been frequently used in assessment of ecological risks related to the release of GMOs in environment, e.g. gene flow, fitness,interspecific competition and food chain. The value of GMOs in ecological research is illustrated through several examples in biasafety assessment related to those terms here. It is proposed that ecolegists should pay attention to the study of gene function in ecosystem and take the opportunity to enrich ecological theory with the release of GMOs.     

Gradient Analysis of Urbanization Pattern Based on Class-level Landscape Metrics for Shanghai Region

The spatial pattern of urbanization in the Shanghai metropolitan area is quantified with GIS-based land use data set and gradient analysis of landscape metrics. A number of landscape metrics were computed along a 64 km long and 6 km wide west-east transect and another 66 km long and 6 km wide south-north transect. The results of transect analysis with class-level metrics showed that the spatial pattern of urbanization could be reliably quantified using landscape metrics with a gradient analysis approach, and the location of the urbanization center could be identified precisely and consistently with multiple indices of the landscape metrics used in this study. Different land use types exhibited distinctive, but not necessarily unique, spatial signatures that were dependent on specific landscape metrics. These results seemed to characterize the urban core of the Shanghai metropolitan area rather accurately and precisely: Agriculture patches were abundant and less fragmented; the urban land use types were extensive, having many small patches and highly fragmented.     

Ecosystem vulnerability of China under B2 climate scenario in the 21st century

This paper applies climate change scenarios in China based on the SRES assumptions with the help of RCMs projections by PRECIS （providing regional climates for impacts studies） system introduced to China from.the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research at a high-resolution （50 kmx50 km） over China. This research focuses on B2 scenario of SRES. A biogeochemical model ＂Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model （AVIM2）＂ was applied to simulating ecosystem status in the 21st century. Then vulnerability of ecosystems was assessed based on a set of index of mainly net primary production （NPP） of vegetation. Results show that climate change would affect ecosystem of China severely and there would be a worse trend with the lapse of time. The regions where having vulnerable ecological background would have heavier impacts while some regions with better ecological background would also receive serious impacts. Extreme climate even would bring about worse impact on the ecosystems. Open shrub and desert steppe would be the two most affected types. When the extreme events happen, vulnerable ecosystem would extend to part of defoliate broad-leaved forest, woody grassland and evergreen conifer forest. Climate change would not always be negative. It could be of some benefit to cold region during the near-term. However, in view of mid-term to long-term negative impact on ecosystem vulnerability would be enormously.     

Effect of land use on microbial biomass－C, －N and －P in red soils

Eleven red soils varying in land use and fertility status were used to examine the effect of land useon microbial biomass -C, -N and -P. Microbial biomass-C in the red soils ranged from about 68 rag C/kg to 225 mg C/kg, which is generally lower than that reported from other types of soil, probably because of low or-ganic matter and high acidity in the red soils. Land use had considerable effects on the amounts of soil Cmic.The Cmic was the lowest in eroded fallow land, followed by woodland, tea garden, citrus grove and fallow grassland, and the highest in vegetable and paddy fields. There was significant correlation between Cmic and organic matter content, suggesting that the influence of land use on Cmie is mainly related to the input and ac-cumulation of organic matter. Microbial biomass-N in the soils ranged from 12.1 Nmg/kg to 31.7 Nmg/kg andwas also affected by land use. The change of Nmic with land use was similar to that of Cmic. The microbial C/N ratio ranged from 5.2 to 9.9 and averaged 7.6. The Nmic was significantly correlated with soil total N and available N. Microbial biomass-P in the soils ranged from 4.5 mg P/kg to 52.3 rag P/kg. The microbial C/P ratio was in the range of 4-23. The Pmic was relatively less affected by land use due to differences in fertili-zation practices for various land use systems.     

Analysis of ecosystem degradation factors in Yuanmou arid-hot valleys based on interpretative structural model

For ecological restoration and reconstruction of the degraded area, it is an important premise to correctly understand the degradation factors of the ecosystem in the arid-hot valleys. The factors including vegetation degradation, land degradation, arid climate, policy failure, forest fire, rapid population growth, excessive deforestation, overgrazing, steep slope reclamation, economic poverty, engineering construction, lithology, slope, low cultural level, geological hazards, biological disaster, soil properties etc, were selected to study the Yuanmou arid-hot valleys. Based on the interpretative structural model （ISM）, it has found out that the degradation factors of the Yuanmou arid-hot valleys were not at the same level but in a multilevel hierarchical system with internal relations, which pointed out that the degradation mode of the arid-hot valleys was ＂straight （appearance）-penetrating-background＂. Such researches have important directive significance for the restoration and reconstruction of the arid-hot valleys ecosystem.     

Dynamic Mechanisms for Evolution of Mountain Rural Settlements and Soil Conservation in Upper Yangtze River Basin

This paper presents the logic relationship between rural settlement reconstruction and soil conservation in the Upper Yangtze River. Firstly, by introducing the concepts of ＂flow＂ and ＂intercepted flow＂, we probe into the dynamic mechanism on interaction between ecological and environmental system, and then point out that the ＂intercepting sites＂ are physical conditions for establishment of human settlements in mountains. Secondly, by using ecological theories, ＂flow＂, ＂source＂, and ＂sink＂, material cycle and energy flow in mountains have been discussed. Thirdly, according to dissipative structure theory and thermodynamic laws, a hypothesis has been proposed that ＂entropy flow＂ is a dynamic force for settlement evolution. Finally, it is argued that a project for soil conservation is set to control and utilize flows so rural settlements can be supported and farmers＇ life improved.     

龙感湖湿地生态功能的生物和化学记录

湖滨湿地是陆地和湖泊水体的连接带,具有重要的生态功能．通过对长江中游湖泊龙感湖湖滨湿地和湖泊沉积物中化学元素和生物硅藻的研究,表明湖滨湿地对入湖物质具有明显的拦截作用和生态功能,由于人类活动对龙感湖湿地的破坏,减弱了湿地对流域物质的拦截,造成了湖泊生态功能的退化。     

遥感和GIS支持下的上海浦东新区城市生态网络格局现状分析

上海浦东新区的绿地、林地、湿地是其重要生态栖息地,同时构成基本生态网络。受城市人口不断增加和经济快速增长影响,上海浦东新区建成区快速扩张,生态栖息地资源不断减少,斑块破碎化加大,基本生态网络连通性下降,生态功能下降。本项研究以2011年福卫二号高分辨率遥感影像为基础数据,结合地面调查,通过面向对象遥感分类方法和人工交互后处理,获得浦东新区绿地、林地、湿地土地利用现状。在GIS技术支持下,采用多层次权重、最小费用路径法和重力模型对浦东新区生态网络结构进行了定量分析与评价。结果表明:(1)浦东新区湿地、林绿地总面积17.99万hm2,占区域面积的65.41%,生态用地比重较大;(2)生态适宜性较强的大型斑块较少,且南北不均;(3)林地是组成研究区生态网络的优势景观要素类型,10 m缓冲结果中林地占51.39%;(4)由重力模型得到生态斑块间作用强度可知,九段沙及南汇东滩禁猎区生态区位十分重要;(5)随着生态廊道缓冲距离的增加,土地利用方式变化巨大,生态用地减少、建设用地增加.     

Regional characteristics of the interdecadal turning of winter/summer climate modes in Chinese mainland

Tomé and Miranda’s climate trend turning discriminatory model is used to identify the spatial-temporal characteristics of the interdecadal turning of winter/summer climate modes at stations and in eight sub-areas over Chinese mainland based on the 1961–2000 observations. It is found that the stations with close occurrence years of the interdecadal trend turning (ITT) and coincident trends after the ITT exhibit a zonal distribution. A view is accordingly proposed that the interdecadal turnings of climate modes in China have remarkably regional structures. The research results show that after the early 1980s, winter climate over Chinese mainland overall trends towards a “warm-wet” mode, while summer climate had an abrupt change into “warm wet” mode in the late 1980s, suggesting that the time of the “warm-wet” mode turning for winter climate is earlier than that for summer climate. The regional characteristics and test results of the ITTs in eight sub-areas suggest that winter climate exhibits a distinctive “warm-dry” trend in North China after the late 1970s, and a slight “warm-dry” trend in Northeast China, South China, and Southwest China after the late 1980s. A “warm-wet” trend appears in the rest four sub-areas (the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River Valley, briefly Jianghuai, the east of the Tibetan plateau, and the east and west of Northwest China) after the early 1980s. The summer climate trends towards a “warm-dry” mode in Northeast China, North China and the east of Northwest China after the late 1980s, but a “warm-wet” mode appears in Southwest China and the east of the Tibetan plateau after the middle 1970s, as well as in Jianghuai and the west of Northwest China after the early 1980s. Specially, summer climate in South China started a “cold-wet” trend in 1984.     

利用CLUE-S模型对四川省未来10年土地利用变化的预测与分析

土地利用配置对生态环境和经济发展有着重要影响,通过研究土地利用配置对人类可持续发展具有重要意义。以我国四川省为研究区,设定了生态效益型、经济效益型和综合效益型3种发展情景,通过CLUE-S模型模拟研究区2030年的土地利用数据,计算了各情景下相应的生态服务价值量和经济效益,分析了3种情景下模拟结果各土地利用类型分布的相同和差异。研究结果表明,生态服务价值量在情景1下达到最大值,为108 405.5亿元;经济效益则在情景2下最大,为78 346.3亿元。从土地利用空间分布上来看,3种情景的变化趋势基本一致:生态用地中林地和水域的增加主要分布在攀西地区;建设用地的增加主要分布在攀西地区和四川盆地。研究结果可对四川省未来的土地规划管理提供参考。     

High precision topographic data on Lop Nor basin＇s Lake ＂Great Ear＂ and the timing of its becoming a dry salt lake

High precision elevation measurements using DGPS were carried out along three representative tran-sects for the ＂Great Ear＂ area, a dry salt lake within the Lop Nor basin. Results indicate that the Lop Nor basin is only 5.2 m deep and its lowest point occurs at the center of the ＂Great Ear＂. In addition, the basin is asymmetric-steeper in the southwest （0.19‰） and gentler in the northeast （0.09‰）. Points along the same ＂Great Ear＂ ring were found to have an identical elevation value, but different when from different ones （lower towards the center）. The spacing of the ＂Great Ear＂ rings was found to be closely related with the surface steepness. The closer the ＂Great Ear＂ rings are spaced, the steeper the ground surface, and vice versa. These findings support the argument that the ＂Great Ear＂ rings are the former shoreline trails left behind by Lop Nor water during the last few episodes of recession towards its total dry up. A comprehensive analysis of the high precision elevation data, historical accounts, aerial and satellite photographs and imagery, and official topographic maps of the study area suggests that the ＂Great Ear＂ area in the Lop Nor basin was incorrectly mapped as being covered by a great body of water on the 1963 topographic maps. A re-interpretation of the 1958 aerial photographs and newer remote sensing imagery indicated that the ＂Great Ear＂ ring structure was already in place in 1958 and it continued to appear on the subsequent remote sensing data without any major changes. It is estimated that lake water in the ＂Great Ear＂ area of the Lop Nor basin disappeared between the late 1930s and early 1940s.