Long-term variations of solar activity

Using the Lomb-Scargle periodogram we analyzed two sunspot series: the one over the past 11000 years at the 10-year interval based upon the survey data of 14C concentration in tree-rings, recon- structed by Solanki et al.; and the sunspot number over the past 7000 years, derived from geomagnetic variations by Usoskin et al. We found the periods and quasi-periods in solar activity, such as about 225, 352, 441, 522 and 561 a, and near 1000 and 2000 a. An approach of wavelet transform was applied to check the two sunspot time series, with emphasis on investigating time-varying characteristics in the long-term fluctuations of solar activity. The results show that the lengths and amplitudes of the periods have changed with time, and large variations have taken place during some periods.     

Periodicity of sunspot activity in the modern solar cycles

Sunspot number, sunspot area and sunspot unit area are usually used to show sunspot activity. In this paper,periodicity of sunspot activity of modern solar cycles has been investigated through analyzing the monthly mean values of the three indices in the time interval of May 1874 to May 2004 by use of the wavelet transform. Their global power spectra and local power spectra are given while the statistical tests of these spectra are taken into account. The main results are (1) the local wavelet power spectrum of the sunspot number seems like that of the sunspot area, indicating that the periodicity of the both indices is similar. The local power spectrum of the sunspot unit area resembles the local power spectra of the previous two indices, but looks more complicated. (2) the possible periods in sunspot activity are about 10.6 (or 10.9 years for the sunspot unit area), 31,and 42 years, and the period of about 10.6 years is statistically significant in the considered time. For the periods of about 31 and 42 years, their power peaks are under the 95% confidence level line but over the mean red-noise spectral line, and for the other rest periods, their power peaks are even under the mean red-noise spectral line, which are statistically insignificant. (3) the local power of the three periods is higher in the late stage than in the early stage of the considered time. (4) the period characteristics of the three indices, shown in the global power spectra and the local power spectra, are similar but there is difference in detail.     

异常的第24太阳活动周——新千年的第一个完整的太阳活动周

介绍自2007年下半年到现在的非常低的太阳活动状况:无黑子活动天数为16太阳活动周以来最多,不排除24周的无黑子天数是现代黑子周内最多的可能;高纬度(35°)黑子的纬度为12周最低;从2003年11月～2008年9月,较高纬度(20°)每月没有黑子或只有1个黑子,共计持续了58个月,也为12周以来第一次观测到;太阳风速度、太阳风压、10cm电磁波辐射、太阳极区磁场、太阳总光度辐射等参量都为有观测资料以来的最低.对于这种极低太阳活动的现象,介绍了从当前的日震观测给予的解释、也从Gleissberg周期的长尺度、超长太阳活动周期尺度给予了解释.依据目前的观测,我们确定24黑子活动周于2008年11月开始.综合多种经典太阳活动预报方法给出的对24周太阳活动水平的预报,以及美国国家航空航天局和美国国家海洋大气局对24周的未来发展趋势的预报,认为24周太阳活动水平估计比23周将要弱30%左右.异常的24太阳活动周为太阳物理和日地关系物理研究带来机遇.     

地磁活动指数与太阳活动的小波分析

根据1957—2012年的地磁指数Ap、Dst、AE和太阳活动参数(太阳黑子相对数R与太阳射电流量F10.7)数据,利用小波分析方法研究了地磁活动与太阳活动的关系.结果表明,Ap、Dst、AE指数和太阳活动参数均存在准11 a和准22 a的周期特征.Ap和AE峰值滞后于太阳参数峰值1~2 a;而Dst指数与太阳参数存在近似负相关的关系,但从第21太阳周起逐渐延迟于太阳参数,表明地磁活动受太阳活动影响的滞后性.此外,地磁指数峰值从第20太阳周开始有逐渐下降的趋势,反映了地磁活动对太阳活动的响应减弱.     

Time-variation of the near 5-month period of sunspot numbers

The variation of the near 5-month period of sunspot numbers is discussed on the basis of the wavelet transform of the daily sunspot number series in the 14th—22nd solar cycles. The result shows that the period exists in every cycle and its energy density (amplitude) is comparatively large in the peak section of the cycle. In the distinct cycle, the length and intensity of the period is different, which means that the period varies with time. The near 25-day period is also analyzed and it is found to be timevariable and even not very stable in the peak section of the cycle. The variations of the two periods show that the near 5-month period should not be simply regarded as the multiples of the near 25-day period.     

小波技术探测古油松年轮记录的太阳活动信号

利用小波技术以沈阳昭陵古油松为样本建立的古油松年轮宽度年表与太阳黑于活动为研究对象,分析了沈阳的古油松生长与太阳活动的关系。油松在5～8年、10-12年和20-30年周期段对太阳活动表现出积极的响应,呈现5．8、11.5和27.2年的强周期震荡,响应信号在太阳活动的主周期11．1年左右表现最强。太阳黑子活动对油松年轮宽度年表总的影响是负效应,是多种抑、促效应的复合。     

Phase relationship between the relative sunspot number and solar 10.7 cm flux

A range of analysis approaches,namely continuous wavelet,cross wavelet,and wavelet coherence analyses,are employed to clarify the phase relationship between the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number and solar 10.7 cm flux(F10.7).Analysis shows that there is a region of high spectral power sitting across the Schwabe cycle belt,where the two time series are in phase.However,analysis of the cross-wavelet transform and wavelet coherence unveils asynchronous behavior featured with phase mixing in the high-frequency components of sunspot activity and solar F10.7,which may explain the different activity properties of the photosphere and corona on a short time scale.     

Cross wavelet analysis of the relationship between total solar irradiance and sunspot number

Using the observational data of total solar irradiance (TSI) from 1976 to 2006, the evolution of total solar irradiance and the rela-tionship between TSI and sunspot number (SSN) have been analyzed with the wavelet technique. The results of the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) indicate that the TSI has multi-scale evolutionary characteristics. In the low frequency band, the TSI and SSN show similar variation with a significant and steady oscillation period from 8 to 11.4 a. While in the high frequency band, only around the maximum time of solar cycles, both the TSI and SSN present a significant intermittent oscillation period from 2 to 6 months. The results of the cross wavelet transform indicate that there is significant in-phase resonance oscillation between the TSI and SSN in 8–11.4 a band, where the variation of the SSN is 2 months ahead of that of TSI. Those results confirm the SSN as the primary cause for TSI’s periodic variation in the time scale of 8–11.4 a. However for the 2–6 month band, significant resonance periodicity is observed only within the maximum time of solar cycle, but the phase relationship between the TSI and SSN is unsteady. Finally, a reliable TSI monthly series from 1878 to 1975 is reconstructed and tested.     

太阳活动峰年和谷年期间黑子群与耀斑的统计分析

基于NOAA/SWPC公布的太阳活动数据,我们选取第24太阳活动峰年附近的12个连续月份(2011年7月至2012年6月)和第23太阳活动周谷年附近的12个连续月份(2005年7月至2006年6月),统计了这两段时间中太阳黑子群和耀斑的活动规律,并根据时间、黑子群分布纬度、寿命和磁场类型等对峰年和谷年进行了详细分析和比较,主要结论如下所述.(1)黑子群数随时间的变化在峰年和谷年均比较随机,峰年期间黑子数比谷年增多1.5倍左右.耀斑爆发与黑子群活动具有良好的相关性,但峰年期间存在某个月份耀斑数很少的现象,而谷年期间存在某个月份耀斑数集中增多的现象.(2)无论峰年还是谷年,δ类型黑子群的耀斑产率(耀斑总数与黑子群总数之比)最大,但β型黑子群产生的耀斑爆发最多.耀斑产率与磁场类型有密切关系,但与其所处太阳活动周中的阶段无关.(3)黑子群和耀斑的纬度分布的南北不对称性,以X级耀斑最为显著.峰年较谷年的耀斑数增加主要集中在C级和M级.(4)耀斑产率同黑子群寿命具有良好的相关性,但黑子群的数目同它们的寿命之间没有明显的规律.     

Latitude migration of solar activity at high latitudes

Utilized here is the Carte Synoptique solar filament archive, namely the catalogue of solar filaments from March 1919 to December 1989, corresponding to solar rotation numbers 876 to 1823 to study latitudinal migration of solar activity at high latitudes. Except the well-known poleward migration of solar activity from middle latitudes to the poles, an equatorward migration is found from the solar poles toward middle latitudes （about 40°） within a normal cycle, which is neglected before, and the time interval for the former migration （4.4 years） is about 2.2 years shorter than that for the latter （6.6 years）, indicating that the change from one migration to the other takes place around the maximum time of a normal cycle. In the future, a dynamo model should represent the migration from the poles toward middle latitudes of the Sun, besides the migration in ＂butterfly diagrams＂ and the ＂rush to the poles＂. The traditional extended activity cycle is actually a part of the period of the successive migration from the poles toward the solar equator.     

基于小波变换的含间隙太阳能帆板动力学试验分析

为了有效地提取含间隙可展结构振动信号中所包含的动力学特征量,在分析传统Fourier方法局限性的基础上,引入基于小波变换的数据处理和分析方法。对含间隙太阳能帆板在收拢和展开状态下施加单脉冲的激励,测试标志点的加速度信号,系统地分析了间隙对动力学性能的影响。结果表明:小波变换能够较好地表征含间隙可展结构的时频特征信息,可以得到系统的频带以及各个频度衰减的速度和时间。实现了对航天可展结构动力学性能在时频域内的“精细”考察,将有助于提高航天器结构的分析与设计水平。     

南充地区主要灾害性天气与太阳活动关系的探讨

根据南充地区多年灾害性天气资料（１９５１—１９９１年）与太阳黑子资料（１９００－１９９１年），对南充地区主要灾害性天气与太阳活动的关系进行了初步探讨，发现南充地区的严重夏旱发生在太阳活动的上升时期，而严重伏旱、春旱、秋绵雨及洪涝大多出现在太阳活动的下降时期．     

A method to predict amplitude and date of maximum sunspot number

A method to predict the amplitude and date of the maximum sunspot number is introduced. The regression analysis of the relationship between the variation rate of monthly sunspot numbers in the initial stage of solar cycles and both of the maximum and the time-length of ascending period of the cycle showed that they are closely correlative. In general, the maximum will be larger and the ascending period will be shorter when the rate is larger. The rate of sunspot numbers in the initial 2 years of the 23rd cycle is thus analyzed based on these grounds and the maximum of the cycle is predicted. For the smoothed monthly sunspot numbers, the maximum will be about 139.2±18.8 and the time-length of ascending period will be about 3.31±0.42 years, that is to say, the maximum will appear around the spring of the year 2000. For the mean monthly ones, the maximum will be near 170.1±22.9 and the time-length of ascending period will be about 3.42±0.46 years, that is to say, the appearing date of the maximum will be later.     

大气臭氧对太阳自转活动的响应．

采用交叉谱分析方法，通过年全球平均的大气臭氧总量和１０．７ｃｍ大阳通量两时间序列的对比分析发现，大气臭氧的短期变化和大阳自转活动之间有着极为密切的相关关系：大气臭氧准２７天周期变化和太阳１０．７ｃｍ辐射通量之间存在约１４０°的位相差，落后时间为１０．２天．／／关键词     

应用数据挖掘技术的短期太阳耀斑预报模型

为了进一步探讨太阳耀斑与太阳黑子参量的关系,本文采集了大规模的活动区黑子数据,统计其与耀斑发生的产率关系,应用得到的拟和公式对原始数据计算得到规范化后的数据集.在此基础上使用数据挖掘技术对黑子耀斑数据建立决策树模型和建立分类规则,具体描述了黑子数据和太阳耀斑之间的相关性.最后应用这两种技术对活动区未来48h是否爆发耀斑给出了预报,预报结果具有较高的准确率和较低的虚报率.     

Accumulation in Dasuopu ice core in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and solar activity

The time series of accumulation in recent 300 years correlated well with solar activity in Dasuopu ice core. Results of spectrum analysis on the accumulation time series of the Dasuopu ice core shows that there are some periods that coincide with the periods of solar activity. By comparing the long-time change trend of the accumulation in the Dasuopu ice core with various kinds of indexes of solar activity intensity, a negative correlation is found between the trend and solar activity.     

高斯小波-最大熵谱分析法及其在机械故障诊断中的应用

充分利用小波和现代谱分析的优点,提出一种新的谱分析方法——高斯小波－最大熵谱分析方法。介绍了该方法的分析步骤,并应用于减速机的故障诊断。该方法实现了在机械设备故障诊断中不同频带范围内零部件故障信息的分离和提取。     

规则波致剪切波的时空变化

基于物理模型试验、小波变换理论及剪切不稳定理论等,研究入射波为规则波、地形为平直斜坡情况下的剪切波时空变化特性。通过对15个不同波况下的剪切波流速时间历程的小波谱进行分析,得出如下结论:入射波为规则波、地形为平直斜坡情况下可以观测到剪切波,但是时空变化不明显;剪切波产生后随时间的变化呈现连续性;剪切波在沿岸方向的能量谱中比在垂直岸线方向能量谱中占优势;地形坡度增加会使剪切波产生的区域减小;无论是1∶40坡还是1∶100坡,由剪切不稳定引起的剪切波频率都在约0.015 Hz左右变化。     

Decadal-centennial-scale change in Asian-Pacific summer thermal contrast and solar activity

To study the temporally varying features of summer thermal contrast between the Asian continent and the adjacent ocean on decadal-centennial time scales and the links between thermal contrast and solar irradiance, we used a time series of the reconstructed Asian-Pacific oscillation index and solar irradiance over the past millennium. The results showed that thermal contrast in the Asian monsoon region has quasi-90-year, 10-13-year, and 3-7-year periods. On the centennial time scale, thermal contrast showed ...