Synchronization of animal population dynamics by large-scale climate

The hypothesis that animal population dynamics may be synchronized by climate is highly relevant in the context of climate change because it suggests that several populations might respond simultaneously to climatic trends if their dynamics are entrained by environmental correlation. The dynamics of many species throughout the Northern Hemisphere are influenced by a single large-scale climate system, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which exerts highly correlated regional effects on local weather. But efforts to attribute synchronous fluctuations of contiguous populations to large-scale climate are confounded by the synchronizing influences of dispersal or trophic interactions. Here we report that the dynamics of caribou and musk oxen on opposite coasts of Greenland show spatial synchrony among populations of both species that correlates with the NAO index. Our analysis shows that the NAO has an influence in the high degree of cross-species synchrony between pairs of caribou and musk oxen populations separated by a minimum of 1,000 km of inland ice. The vast distances, and complete physical and ecological separation of these species, rule out spatial coupling by dispersal or interaction. These results indicate that animal populations of different species may respond synchronously to global climate change over large regions.     

东亚地区典型极端气候指标未来预估及高温下人口暴露度研究

基于地球系统模式、CMIP6 (第六次全球耦合模式比较计划)温室气体排放和大气成分数据以及人口数据, 研究区域均温变化与极端气候指标变化之间的相关关系, 进而探讨9种SSPs (共享社会经济路径)-RCPs(典型浓度路径)情景下东亚3种极端气候指标的未来预估和区域高温下人口暴露度的变化及归因。结果表明: ) 全球地表均温变化和区域极端气候指标具有稳健的相关关系, 可以用于区域极端气候指标的未来预估; 2) 与基准期1861—1880年相比, 未来数十年间东亚地区在5种情景(SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, SSP3-LowNTCF, SSP3-7.0-Baseline和SSP5-8.5-Baseline)下面临持续增加的极端气候风险, 而空气污染物减排与控制措施可以显著地降低该风险, 不过, 气候对温室气体及气溶胶排放控制措施的响应具有一定的时间滞后效应, 为预防可能面临的极端气候事件风险, 减排及控制措施应提前布局和实施; 3) 东亚典型区域未来高温下的人口暴露度受气候因子和人口因子共同作用, 随时间动态变化且具有明显的区域差异, 多数情景下, 气候因子对区域高温下人口暴露度的影响逐渐减弱, 而人口因子的影响逐渐加强, 华南地区高温下的人口暴露度明显高于西南和华中地区, 其中气候因子的相对贡献比例也高于后两个地区。     

Climatic regionalization mapping of the Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area,Australia

In this study,spatial analysis techniques were used to generate climatic zoning maps of the East Murrumbidgee Irrigation Area (MIA),Australia.Long term climate data were used to analyze and assess regional climatic variation by cluster analysis in a GIS environment.Based on thermal and moisture factors,four variables were chosen to develop climate zones.These variables include annual average rainfalls,annual average ETc,annual average Growing Day Degree (GDD) and daily average temperature generated from daily climate data of 36 years (1971-2006) on 12 local weather stations as the fundamental elements of regional climate characteristics.GIS-based spatial analysis models are used to map climate sub-regions from sets of climatic parameters derived from regional climate data sources.Two climate zoning schemes are presented by integration of spatial interpolation,spatial cluster analysis and climate indices methods.One scheme comes with the two climate zones of the West and the East based on spatial cluster analysis according to selected climatic variables,and the other comes with the three comprehensive hydro-thermal zones and the six hydro-thermal balance zones.     

The climatic suitability for maize cultivation in China

To provide scientific support for planning maize production and designing countermeasures against the effects of climate change on the national maize crop, we analyzed the climatic suitability for cultivating maize across China. These analyses were based on annual climate indices at the Chinese national level; these indices influence the geographical distribution of maize cultivation. The annual climate indices, together with geographical information on the current cultivation sites of maize, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, and the ArcGIS spatial analysis technique were used to analyze and predict maize distribution. The results show that the MaxEnt model can be used to study the climatic suitability for maize cultivation. The eight key climatic factors affecting maize cultivation areas were the frost-free period, annual average temperature, ≥0°C accumulated temperature, ≥10°C accumulated temperature continuous days, ≥10°C accumulated temperature, annual precipitation, warmest month average temperature, and humidity index. We classified climatic zones in terms of their suitability for maize cultivation, based on the existence probability determined using the MaxEnt model. Furthermore, climatic thresholds for a potential maize cultivation zone were determined based on the relationship between the dominant climatic factors and the potential maize cultivation area. The results indicated that the importance and thresholds of main climate controls differ for different maize species and maturities, and their specific climatic suitability should be studied further to identify the best cultivation zones. The MaxEnt model is a useful tool to study climatic suitability for maize cultivation.     

Species-specific responses of Late Quaternary megafauna to climate and humans

Despite decades of research, the roles of climate and humans in driving the dramatic extinctions of large-bodied mammals during the Late Quaternary period remain contentious. Here we use ancient DNA, species distribution models and the human fossil record to elucidate how climate and humans shaped the demographic history of woolly rhinoceros, woolly mammoth, wild horse, reindeer, bison and musk ox. We show that climate has been a major driver of population change over the past 50,000 years. However, each species responds differently to the effects of climatic shifts, habitat redistribution and human encroachment. Although climate change alone can explain the extinction of some species, such as Eurasian musk ox and woolly rhinoceros, a combination of climatic and anthropogenic effects appears to be responsible for the extinction of others, including Eurasian steppe bison and wild horse. We find no genetic signature or any distinctive range dynamics distinguishing extinct from surviving species, emphasizing the challenges associated with predicting future responses of extant mammals to climate and human-mediated habitat change.     

Lagged effects of ocean climate change on fulmar population dynamics

Environmental variation reflected by the North Atlantic Oscillation affects breeding and survival in terrestrial vertebrates, and climate change is predicted to have an impact on population dynamics by influencing food quality or availability. The North Atlantic Oscillation also affects the abundance of marine fish and zooplankton, but it is unclear whether this filters up trophic levels to long-lived marine top predators. Here we show by analysis of data from a 50-year study of the fulmar that two different indices of ocean climate variation may have lagged effects on population dynamics in this procellariiform seabird. Annual variability in breeding performance is influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation, whereas cohort differences in recruitment are related to temperature changes in the summer growing season in the year of birth. Because fulmars exhibit delayed reproduction, there is a 5-year lag in the population's response to these effects of environmental change. These data show how interactions between different climatic factors result in complex dynamics, and that the effects of climate change may take many years to become apparent in long-lived marine top predators.     

近300年来岱海流域气候干湿变化与人类活动的湖泊响应

根据岱海60cm柱状岩芯的磁化率、孢粉、粒度等环境指标的分析结果,对历史时期岱海气候干湿变化和人类活动的湖泊记录进行探讨,岱海湖泊沉积记录近300年来的气候干湿变化可划分七个阶段,与历史记载有较好的一致性;频率磁化率高值段对应气候偏湿阶段,低值对应气候偏干阶段,人类活动特别是人口增加和土地开垦,加剧流域水土流失,导致湖泊沉积物中细颗粒组分增加,频率磁化率升高;孢粉Ulmus的变化受流域人口增加的影响。频率磁化率和孢粉是反映岱海历史时期干湿变化和人类活动的重要环境指标。     

神华宝日希勒露天矿排土场生态修复中物种引种的关键气候因素

神华宝日希勒露天矿地处我国植物抗寒带二区,气温低、昼夜温差大和无霜期短等气候条件严重制约排土场的生态修复,根据当地气候立地条件做好植物引种是保障生态修复成功实施的首要条件.综合植物生长环境需求与神华宝日希勒露天矿排土场所在地区的气候特征,冻害、活动积温和风场等气候条件是控制植物引种、影响植物生长与播种的关键因素.通过统...     

气候变化背景下中国主要粮食作物生长期界定的研究综述

聚焦于水稻、玉米和小麦3大粮食作物,就生长期的定义、界定方法以及应用等方面对文献进行了梳理与归纳;基于局地、区域尺度视角,描述了我国不同品种、不同地区对生长期界定所存在的差异;对应用于气候变化背景下生长期的变化规律和气候变化特征这2方面的相关研究进行了综述.结果表明：作物生长期的起止日期主要依据界限温度或现实经验进行界定,界限温度是作物生长发育过程中的一个重要气候指标,我国主要以0、5或10℃为阈值;采用滑动平均方法准确估算作物播种和收获的具体日期,适用于局地尺度范围内生长期起止日期的界定.参考我国农业种植制度和粮食生产的实际情况,选定某时段作为生长期,便于开展区域尺度范围内气候因素的长期演变研究;改进作物生长期的界定,可准确分析区域农业气候资源变化;为气候变化研究的指标选取和参数优化提供依据,并有助于农业种植制度的制定、作物品种的布局优化等相关工作,能更好地保障作物产量并提高作物的生产潜力.     

澳门气候及主要气象灾害

通过对澳门气象观测资料的统计、分析,总结出澳门的气候及其主要气象灾害。澳门的气候是温度高、湿度和平均风速大、日照多、降水量大;其主要气象灾害是台风灾害和暴雨灾害。澳门的气候属热带海洋性季风气候。     

气候因素对病毒流行的影响

 综述了SARS病毒、登革热病毒、流感病毒、呼吸道合胞病毒流行与气候的关系，认为病毒产生于一定的自然条件和环境，特定的气候因素是病毒流行的推手，相同的气候更有利于病毒的流行。超出域值之外，气候因素则会限制甚至阻断病毒传播。探讨了不同气候因素的作用，可完善病毒性疾病的预警机制，有助于对可能产生的疫病暴发提前做好防治准备。     

Local interactions predict large-scale pattern in empirically derived cellular automata.

An important unanswered question in ecology is whether processes such as species interactions that occur at a local scale can generate large-scale patterns seen in nature. Because of the complexity of natural ecosystems, developing an adequate theoretical framework to scale up local processes has been challenging. Models of complex systems can produce a wide array of outcomes; therefore, model parameter values must be constrained by empirical information to usefully narrow the range of predicted behaviour. Under some conditions, spatially explicit models of locally interacting objects (for example, cells, sand grains, car drivers, or organisms), variously termed cellular automata or interacting particle models, can self-organize to develop complex spatial and temporal patterning at larger scales in the absence of any externally imposed pattern. When these models are based on transition probabilities of moving between ecological states at a local level, relatively complex versions of these models can be linked readily to empirical information on ecosystem dynamics. Here, I show that an empirically derived cellular automaton model of a rocky intertidal mussel bed based on local interactions correctly predicts large-scale spatial patterns observed in nature.     

气候因素对病毒流行的影响

 综述了SARS病毒、登革热病毒、流感病毒、呼吸道合胞病毒流行与气候的关系，认为病毒产生于一定的自然条件和环境，特定的气候因素是病毒流行的推手，相同的气候更有利于病毒的流行。超出域值之外，气候因素则会限制甚至阻断病毒传播。探讨了不同气候因素的作用，可完善病毒性疾病的预警机制，有助于对可能产生的疫病暴发提前做好防治准备。     

Demographic compensation and tipping points in climate-induced range shifts

To persist, species are expected to shift their geographical ranges polewards or to higher elevations as the Earth's climate warms. However, although many species' ranges have shifted in historical times, many others have not, or have shifted only at the high-latitude or high-elevation limits, leading to range expansions rather than contractions. Given these idiosyncratic responses to climate warming, and their varied implications for species' vulnerability to climate change, a critical task is to understand why some species have not shifted their ranges, particularly at the equatorial or low-elevation limits, and whether such resilience will last as warming continues. Here we show that compensatory changes in demographic rates are buffering southern populations of two North American tundra plants against the negative effects of a warming climate, slowing their northward range shifts, but that this buffering is unlikely to continue indefinitely. Southern populations of both species showed lower survival and recruitment but higher growth of individual plants, possibly owing to longer, warmer growing seasons. Because of these and other compensatory changes, the population growth rates of southern populations are not at present lower than those of northern ones. However, continued warming may yet prove detrimental, as most demographic rates that improved in moderately warmer years declined in the warmest years, with the potential to drive future population declines. Our results emphasize the need for long-term, range-wide measurement of all population processes to detect demographic compensation and to identify nonlinear responses that may lead to sudden range shifts as climatic tipping points are exceeded.     

济源市旅游气候舒适度评价与开发利用

利用小浪底生态定位站2006—2010年的气候资料,选择月平均气温、月平均风速和月平均湿度等指标,分别利用中部地区舒适度指数评价方法和奥利弗舒适度评价方法对济源市旅游气候资源进行评价分析,以期为济源旅游出行提供参考.结果表明:济源市5月和9月旅游舒适度最高,属于旅游气候上的黄金时间.3,4,10,11月气温相对适宜,气候相对舒适,有利于游客出行.6—8月气温相对比较高,可以开展以登山、戏水等活动为主的避暑旅游活动,可利用的旅游资源有王屋山、黄河三峡、九里沟等,其中6月下旬—7月上旬可以开展颇具特色的小浪底观瀑节旅游活动.12—2月气温低、风速大,可以开展受天气影响相对较小的旅游活动,如参观城区的济渎庙等人文景观.     

Parasites and climate synchronize red grouse populations

There is circumstantial evidence that correlated climatic conditions can drive animal populations into synchronous fluctuations in abundance. However, it is unclear whether climate directly affects the survival and fecundity of individuals, or indirectly, by influencing food and natural enemies. Here we propose that climate affects trophic interactions and could be an important mechanism for synchronizing spatially distributed populations. We show that in specific years the size of red grouse populations in northern England either increases or decreases in synchrony. In these years, widespread and correlated climatic conditions during May and July affect populations regionally and influence the density-dependent transmission of the gastrointestinal nematode Trichostrongylus tenuis, a parasite that reduces grouse fecundity. This in turn forces grouse populations into synchrony. We conclude that specific climatic events may lead to outbreaks of infectious diseases or pests that may cause dramatic, synchronized changes in the abundance of their hosts.     

Ecological interference between fatal diseases

An important issue in population biology is the dynamic interaction between pathogens. Interest has focused mainly on the indirect interaction of pathogen strains, mediated by cross immunity. However, a mechanism has recently been proposed for 'ecological interference' between pathogens through the removal of individuals from the susceptible pool after an acute infection. To explore this possibility, we have analysed and modelled historical measles and whooping cough records. Here we show that ecological interference is particularly strong when fatal infections permanently remove susceptibles. Disease interference has substantial dynamical consequences, making multi-annual outbreaks of different infections characteristically out of phase. So, when disease prevalence is high and is associated with significant mortality, it might be impossible to understand epidemic patterns by studying pathogens in isolation. This new ecological null model has important consequences for understanding the multi-strain dynamics of pathogens such as dengue and echoviruses.     

Impact of climate change on marine pelagic phenology and trophic mismatch

Phenology, the study of annually recurring life cycle events such as the timing of migrations and flowering, can provide particularly sensitive indicators of climate change. Changes in phenology may be important to ecosystem function because the level of response to climate change may vary across functional groups and multiple trophic levels. The decoupling of phenological relationships will have important ramifications for trophic interactions, altering food-web structures and leading to eventual ecosystem-level changes. Temperate marine environments may be particularly vulnerable to these changes because the recruitment success of higher trophic levels is highly dependent on synchronization with pulsed planktonic production. Using long-term data of 66 plankton taxa during the period from 1958 to 2002, we investigated whether climate warming signals are emergent across all trophic levels and functional groups within an ecological community. Here we show that not only is the marine pelagic community responding to climate changes, but also that the level of response differs throughout the community and the seasonal cycle, leading to a mismatch between trophic levels and functional groups.     

Future projections for Mexican faunas under global climate change scenarios

Global climates are changing rapidly, with unexpected consequences. Because elements of biodiversity respond intimately to climate as an important driving force of distributional limitation, distributional shifts and biodiversity losses are expected. Nevertheless, in spite of modelling efforts focused on single species or entire ecosystems, a few preliminary surveys of fauna-wide effects, and evidence of climate change-mediated shifts in several species, the likely effects of climate change on species' distributions remain little known, and fauna-wide or community-level effects are almost completely unexplored. Here, using a genetic algorithm and museum specimen occurrence data, we develop ecological niche models for 1,870 species occurring in Mexico and project them onto two climate surfaces modelled for 2055. Although extinctions and drastic range reductions are predicted to be relatively few, species turnover in some local communities is predicted to be high (>40% of species), suggesting that severe ecological perturbations may result.     

甘肃省气候区划及酿酒葡萄品种区划指标

 通过对甘肃省一般气象站点20年的气候资料进行统计分析,按照李华等提出的气候区划指标体系,即采用无霜期作为一级指标,干燥度作为二级指标,埋土防寒线作为三级指标,将甘肃省划分为9个气候区。确定了河西走廊地区、白银中部地区、兰州周边县区为酿酒葡萄的最佳产区,其余地区为一般适宜区,可发展适应性较强的酿酒葡萄品种,还有某些特殊的小气候区域也能生产优质或优良葡萄与葡萄酒,但需进一步研究细化。通过对光热指数、纬度-温度指数、有效积温3个品种区划指标的计算分析,结合甘肃省目前酿酒葡萄实际的种植情况,确定了光热指数比较适合作为甘肃省酿酒葡萄品种区划的指标,并根据计算结果提出了每个区域适合栽种的酿酒葡萄品种。