航空高频自润滑衬垫材料寿命预测

针对航空高频自润滑衬垫材料寿命试验周期长、样本量少问题,提出了一种基于蒙特卡洛模拟的短时小样本寿命预测方法.基于自润滑衬垫材料稳定磨损期短时数据,采用支持向量回归算法完成了磨损量退化轨迹拟合,得到了磨损量第一和第二特征参数向量及其分布模型,并基于蒙特卡洛模拟和逆变换法进行了样本量扩充.最后,基于自润滑衬垫材料失效判据得...     

决策演化集的卷积预测

决策演化集是处理决策规则在时间序列上演化问题的理论,它将着眼点从静态的决策信息系统转移到动态的时间序列上,研究决策信息系统随时间变化时的演化规律,是一种新的决策规则研究方法 .在决策演化集理论体系下预测规则伴随实际规则产生,因此预测规则必然对实际规则产生影响.为了解释预测规则和实体规则之间的相互关系,引入卷积方法,在时间序列上构建预测规则和实际规则的演化混合矩阵,并利用该矩阵对决策信息系统进行预测分析.     

基于时序挖掘的时间融合算法及在海表面温度预测中的应用

使用序列挖掘的时间融合模型研究数字海洋中海表面温度(Sea Surface Temperature,SST)预测,对基于时序的动态SST数据进行推测.提出基于平滑处理与支持度判断的抛物线回归模型方法,通过对曲线拐点判断方法的改进,改善抛物线回归模型在趋势预测方面存在的不足.试验证明此方法对发展趋势较为平稳的SST数据具有较好的预测效果.     

基于自适应模糊时间序列法的光伏发电短期功率预测

针对并网光伏发电系统功率预测问题,提出一种基于自适应模糊时间序列法的并网光伏发电短期功率预测模型.根据光伏发电系统的历史发电数据,进行自适应算法处理,使数据结构与预测模型相适应,确定聚类数目、划分论域并定义论域区间.通过对历史数据进行模糊化处理,确定各模糊关系组,再计算各类模糊关系组的权重向量.按照模糊时间序列的方法进行光伏发电功率预测,并去模糊化得到实际预测结果.结果表明,对比时间序列预测法ARIMA模型,本文预测模型结果误差由13.66%减小到11.34%,并且在处理突变数据上有较大改进.     

一种基于混沌理论的数据流连续聚集查询预测算法

为了有效地预测聚集查询的未来聚集值,提出了一种基于混沌理论的数据流连续聚集查询预测未来聚集值算法——CSPA算法.数据流看作是以数据到达时间为序的一个时间序列,借鉴传统时间序列分析技术探讨了连续聚集查询的未来聚集值预测问题,但由于数据流序列与传统时间序列在时间间隔和数据集的处理上存在很大差别,于是采用流滑动窗口技术加以处理.其次,针对目前数据流聚集查询预测领域已有的一些研究结果都未考虑流数据内在的复杂非线性动力学特征对预测的影响问题,该算法又利用了混沌理论中的局域预测思想解决了这一不足.实验结果表明,利用该算法进行预测具有很好的准确性.     

基于最小二乘支持向量机的复杂金融时间序列预测

为了解决神经网络算法预测海量金融时间序列数据会出现训练速度慢,内存开销大等问题,提出一种基于最小二乘支持向量机的复杂金融数据时间序列预测方法.该方法将传统的支持向量机中的不等式约束改为等式约束,且将误差平方和的损失函数作为训练集的经验函数,这样把二次规划问题转化为求解线性方程组问题,提高求解问题的速度和收敛精度.实验中以证券指数为实验数据,对大批量金融数据进行了时间序列预测,相比于神经网络预测方法,该方法在大批量金融数据时间序列预测的训练时间、训练次数和预测误差上都有了明显提高,对复杂金融时间序列具有较好的预测效果.     

混沌时间序列的局部动力相似预测方法

基于混沌系统局部特征,提出了一种局部动力相似的混沌时间序列的预测方法.该方法侧重考虑了被预测点的局部特征,避免了其它方法的复杂数据及模拟参量的处理问题.通过对Lorenz方程资料进行检测,结果表明该方法简单实用.     

在线铁谱监测系统中的非平稳磨损趋势分析

在80组齿轮箱磨损试验数据基础上，以磨损严重度指数为参数，分析了磨损过程的非平稳性，并采用自回归—求和—滑动平均时间序列(ARIMA)模型对这个过程进行了趋势分析．通过差分算子和标准化的处理，将试验数据序列进行了平稳化处理，推导出描述非平稳磨损过程的ARIMA(4，1，1)模型的具体结构．结合齿轮磨损试验和Hodrick—Prescott滤子方法分析，发现这种算法的趋势分析精度比以前使用的算法提高了9．8％，而且实时性好，适合在线铁谱仪现场运行使用．     

深圳卫生填埋淤堵排放的灰色预测模型

灰色预测中的核心GM（1，1）模型将无规律的原始数据生成为有规律的数据序列后进行预测，本文对GM（1，1）模型加以改进，将灰色预测GM（1，1）模型与跳变灰过程理论结合，建立了淤堵试验渗透系数的跳变预测模型。跳变预测模型具有灰色系统只需少量数据即可建模的优点，又有跳变灰过程可处理异常值的特点。采用某填埋场淤堵试验资料，经验证表明，该方法精度较高，将灰色模型引入填埋场衬垫系统渗透系数预测切实可行。     

整体叶盘盘铣开槽加工刀具寿命预测

针对目前预测刀具寿命的方法存在精度不高、受试验数据限制等缺点,提出了用灰色系统理论预测刀具寿命。首先,设计整体叶盘盘铣开槽加工试验,采用表面质量测量仪测量盘铣刀后刀面磨损增长量,根据试验测量的后刀面磨损增长量绘制刀具寿命曲线。然后,选取刀具寿命曲线正常磨损阶段的有限组数据组成时间序列,采用灰色系统理论,建立关于刀具寿命的预测模型。预测结果表明:以灰色系统理论建立的盘铣刀寿命预测模型,预测值与试验值的相对残差均在5.0%以内,模型精度为98.26%,满足工程需要,可用于盘铣开槽加工过程中刀具寿命的预测。     

Markedness and its Interpretation in Language Use

Language markedness is a common phenomenon in languages, and is reflected from hearing, vision and sense, i.e. the variation in the three aspects such as phonology, morphology and semantics. This paper focuses on the interpretation of markedness in language use following the three perspectives, i.e. pragmatic interpretation, psychological interpretation and cognitive interpretation, with an aim to define the function of markedness.     

Features of Women's language

Language is a means of verbal communication. People use language to communicate with each other. In the society, no two speakers are exactly alike in the way of speaking. Some differences are due to age, gender, statue and personality. Above all, gender is one of the obvious reasons. The writer of this paper tries to describe the features of women＇s language from these perspectives： pronunciation, intonation, diction, subjects, grammar and discourse. From the discussion of the features of women＇s language, more attention should be paid to language use in social context. What＇s more, the linguistic phenomena in a speaking community can be understood more thoroughly.     

An Analysis of Catherine＇s Character——Wuthering Heights

Wuthering Heights, Emily Bronte＇s only novel, was published in December of 1847 under the pseudonym Ellis Bell. The book did not gain immediate success, but it is now thought one of the finest novels in the English language. Catherine is the key character of this masterpiece, because everybody and everything center on her though she had a short life. We can understand this masterpiece better if we know Catherine well.     

Lower Paleozoic oil relationships within Williston Basin, Canada

The Williston Basin is a significant petroleum province, containing oil production zones that include the Middle Cambrian to Lower Ordovician, Upper Ordovician, Middle Devonian, Upper Devonian and Mississippian and within the Jurassic and Cretaceous. The oils of the Williston Basin exhibit a wide range of geochemical characteristics defined as "oil families", although the geochemical signature of the Cambrian Deadwood Formation and Lower Ordovician Winnipeg reservoired oils does not match any "oil family". Despite their close stratigraphic proximity, it is evident that the oils of the Lower Palaeozoic within the Williston Basin are distinct. This suggests the presence of a new "oil family" within the Williston Basin. Diagnostic geochemical signatures occur in the gasoline range chromatograms, within saturate fraction gas chromatograms and biomarker fingerprints. However, some of the established criteria and cross-plots that are currently used to segregate oils into distinct genetic families within the basin do not always meet with success, particularly when applied to the Lower Palaeozoic oils of the Deadwood and Winnipeg Formation.     

低渗透非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度研究

理论推导与室内实验相结合,建立了低渗透非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度确定方法。首先借助油藏流场与电场相似的原理,推导了非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度计算公式。其次基于稳定流实验方法,建立了非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度测试方法。结果表明:低渗透非均质砂岩油藏的启动压力梯度确定遵循两个等效原则。平面非均质油藏的启动压力梯度等于各级渗透率段的启动压力梯度关于长度的加权平均;纵向非均质油藏的启动压力梯度等于各渗透率层的启动压力梯度关于渗透率与渗流面积乘积的加权平均。研究成果可用于有效指导低渗透非均质砂岩油藏的合理井距确定,促进该类油藏的高效开发。     

On Tragic Consciousness In The Works By Ernest Hemingway

As an American modern novelist who were famous in the literary world, Hemingway was not a person who always followed the trend but a sharp observer. At the same time, he was a tragedy maestro, he paid great attention on existence, fate and end-result. The dramatis personae's tragedy of his works was an extreme limit by all means tragedy on the meaning of fearless challenge that failed. The beauty of tragedy was not produced on the destruction of life, but now this kind of value was in the impact activity. They performed for the reader about the tragedy on challenging for the limit and the death.     

Design and analysis of generic LBS application developing platform

Location based services is promising due to its novel working style and contents.A software platform is proposed to provide application programs of typical location based services and support new applications developing efficiently. The analysis shows that this scheme is easy implemented, low cost and adapt to all kinds of mobile nework system.     

Achieving Unusual States of Matter Under High Pressure

正The periodicity of the elements and the non-reactivity of the inner-shell electrons are two related principles of chemistry,rooted in the atomic shell structure.Within compounds,Group I elements,for example,invariably assume the+1 oxidation state,and their chemical properties differ completely from those of the p-block elements.These general rules govern our understanding of chemical structures and reactions.Using first principles calcula-     

Exchange-Correlation and Electronic Excitation Energies from Pairing Matrix Fluctuations

We have developed an adiabatic connection to formulate the ground-state exchange-correlation energy in terms of pairing matrix linear fluctuations.This formulation of the exchange-correlation energy opens a new channel for density functional approximations based on the many-body perturbation theory.We illustrate the potential of such approaches with an approximation based on the particle-particle Random Phase Approximation(pp-RPA).This re-     

Density Functional Theory for the Response of Periodic Systems to Electric Fields Based on the Vector Potential Approach

正The electronic and nuclear(structural/vibrational)response of 1D-3D nanoscale systems to electric fields gives rise to a host of optical,mechanical,spectral,etc.properties that are of high theoretical and applied interest.Due to the computational difficulty of treating such large systems it is convenient to model them as infinite and periodic(at least,in first approximation).The fundamental theoretical/computational problem in doing so is that