Regional differences in the timing of recent air warming during the past four decades in China

Global surface temperature has dramatically increased in the past decades. It is critical to evaluate such a change using appropriate approaches. The previous studies for assessment of the change usually used overall trends of temperature series (i.e. slopes of simple linear regression of temperature versus year based on a least-square analysis) for entire study period. Temperature trends, however, differ among different periods, i.e. there are often breakpoints in the temperature series. Therefore, the overall linear trend of a temperature series may conceal some of the temporal characteristics of the temperature change. To precisely characterize the temporal and spatial patterns of air temperature change in China, we analyze the annual mean temperature series between the year of 1961–2004 for 536 meteorological stations across China, using piecewise linear regression approach. We found remarkable breakpoints in the annual mean temperature during the study period across the country. The annual mean temperature started to increase in 1984 at a rate of 0.058°C/a at the country level. The year when warming started appeared to be gradually later from the north to the south: temperature increased since the 1970s in the north (north of 40°N), and did not rise until the 1980s in most areas of the south (south of 40°N), with warming starting in 1983 in the Tibetan Plateau. The trends in annual mean temperatures showed a large spatial heterogeneity across China: a relatively small rising with a rate of 0.025–0.05°C/a in the Sichuan Basin, Central China and South China; the greatest increase in some parts of northwest China (i.e. Xinjiang) with up to a rate of 0.1°C/a; and rising at a rate of >0.05°C/a for most regions of the country. The feedbacks of cold waves and snow may be responsible for such regional differences in the timing and rates of warming in China.     

Water-vapor source shift of Xinjiang region during the recent twenty years

The aim of this paper is to investigate the climate water-vapor sources of Xinjiang region and their shifts during the past 20 years. First, the principle and steps are roughly regulated to seek the water-vapor sources. Second, the climate stationary water-vapor transport in troposphere is calculated to distinguish where the water vapor comes from by ERA-40 reanalysis. In addition, the collocation between the transport and the atmospheric column water vapor content is analyzed. The results show that the major vapor comes from the west side of Xinjiang for mid-month of seasons, apart from July while the water vapor comes from the north or northwest direction. The water vapor sources are different for different seasons, for example, the Caspian Sea and Mediterranean are the sources in January and April, the North Atlantic and the Arctic sea in July, and the Black Sea and Caspian Sea in October, respectively. In recent ten years more water vapor above Xinjiang comes from the high latitudes and the Arctic sea with global warming, and less from Mediterranean in comparison with the case of 1973—1986. In fact, the air over subtropics becomes dry and the anomalous water vapor transport direction turns to west or southwest during 1987—2000. By contrast, the air over middle and high latitudes is warmer and wetter than 14 years ago.     

Water-vapor source shift of Xinjiang region during the recent twenty years

The aim of this paper is to investigate the climate water-vapor sources of Xinjiang region and their shifts during the past 20 years. First, the principle and steps are roughly regulated to seek the water-vapor sources. Second, the climate stationary water-vapor transport in troposphere is calculated to distinguish where the water vapor comes from by ERA-40 reanalysis. In addition, the collocation between the transport and the atmospheric column water vapor content is analyzed. The results show that the major vapor comes from the west side of Xinjiang for mid-month of seasons, apart from July while the water vapor comes from the north or northwest direction. The water vapor sources are different for different seasons, for example, the Caspian Sea and Mediterranean are the sources in January and April, the North Atlantic and the Arctic sea in July, and the Black Sea and Caspian Sea in October, respectively. In recent ten years more water vapor above Xinjiang comes from the high latitudes and the Arctic sea with global warming, and less from Mediterranean in comparison with the case of 1973—1986. In fact, the air over subtropics becomes dry and the anomalous water vapor transport direction turns to west or southwest during 1987—2000. By contrast, the air over middle and high latitudes is warmer and wetter than 14 years ago.     

近6年来人类活动对陕西省土地利用变化的影响分析

目的探讨自1999年退耕还林以来陕西省土地利用在人类活动影响下的变化规律。方法采用动态变化数量分析模型和动态度模型进行测算,并用SPSS应用软件进行分析。结果近6年来耕地减少为陕西省土地利用变化的主要特征,人类活动是耕地减少的主要驱动力,人类活动的影响强度渭南最大,延安最小。结论陕西省各地市土地利用驱动下的人口—经济—土地系统耦合特征各有区别,铜川、汉中、安康、商洛与全省特征一致,宝鸡和咸阳、榆林和延安有类似之处,而西安、渭南和杨凌区特征各异。     

Low Atlantic hurricane activity in the 1970s and 1980s compared to the past 270 years

Hurricane activity in the North Atlantic Ocean has increased significantly since 1995 (refs 1, 2). This trend has been attributed to both anthropogenically induced climate change and natural variability, but the primary cause remains uncertain. Changes in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes in the past can provide insights into the factors that influence hurricane activity, but reliable observations of hurricane activity in the North Atlantic only cover the past few decades. Here we construct a record of the frequency of major Atlantic hurricanes over the past 270 years using proxy records of vertical wind shear and sea surface temperature (the main controls on the formation of major hurricanes in this region) from corals and a marine sediment core. The record indicates that the average frequency of major hurricanes decreased gradually from the 1760s until the early 1990s, reaching anomalously low values during the 1970s and 1980s. Furthermore, the phase of enhanced hurricane activity since 1995 is not unusual compared to other periods of high hurricane activity in the record and thus appears to represent a recovery to normal hurricane activity, rather than a direct response to increasing sea surface temperature. Comparison of the record with a reconstruction of vertical wind shear indicates that variability in this parameter primarily controlled the frequency of major hurricanes in the Atlantic over the past 270 years, suggesting that changes in the magnitude of vertical wind shear will have a significant influence on future hurricane activity.     

Stimulated influences of Lake Agassiz on the climate of central North America 11,000 years ago

Eleven thousand years ago, large lakes existed in central and eastern North America along the margin of the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The large-scale North American climate at this time has been simulated with atmospheric general circulation models, but these relatively coarse global models do not resolve potentially important features of the mesoscale circulation that arise from interactions among the atmosphere, ice sheet, and proglacial lakes. Here we present simulations of the climate of central and eastern North America 11,000 years ago with a high-resolution, regional climate model nested within a general circulation model. The simulated climate is in general agreement with that inferred from palaeoecological evidence. Our experiments indicate that through mesoscale atmospheric feedbacks, the annual delivery of moisture to the Laurentide Ice Sheet was diminished at times of a large, cold Lake Agassiz relative to periods of lower lake stands. The resulting changes in the mass balance of the ice sheet may have contributed to fluctuations of the ice margin, thus affecting the routing of fresh water to the North Atlantic Ocean. A retreating ice margin during periods of high lake level may have opened an outlet for discharge of Lake Agassiz into the North Atlantic. A subsequent advance of the ice margin due to greater moisture delivery associated with a low lake level could have dammed the outlet, thereby reducing discharge to the North Atlantic. These variations may have been decisive in causing the Younger Dryas cold event.     

陕西省近年NDVI变化及其与气候因子相关性分析

利用陕西省1980-2006年的97个气象站的逐月降水资料,分析陕西省1980-2006年均降水量的变化趋势,研究表明:陕西省1980—2006年降水量呈现下降趋势。降水量的线性回归线斜率为-0.5。从季节分析各季降水量的变化情况可以知道:春季降水量年际变化较大,夏季降水量值比较大而降水变化幅度较小,秋季降水量变化不明显,冬季降水量变化则与夏季相反。将陕西省分为陕南、陕北和关中三个区,分析各区的年际降水相对于整个陕西省年降水量的变化。陕南1980—2006年降水量呈现趋势为1983年-1999年陕南地区降水量略高于整个陕西省,其降水量波动与整个陕西省降水量波动情况大体一致;陕北1980—2006年降水量呈现趋势为1980—1989年和1995—1999年陕北地区的降水量变化呈现大幅波动,其他阶段降水量较平稳。     

近30年长江北支口门附近的冲淤演变及其对人类活动的响应

根据1981—2012年长江北支口门附近的海图以及遥感数据,利用Arc GIS技术进行计算分析,以了解近30年该区域的冲淤演变特点和规律,从而丰富海岸带陆海相互作用的研究案例.结果表明:1981—1997年潮间带围垦面积为13 km2,水域平均淤积速率为1.4 cm/a;1997—2012年,潮间带围垦面积为163 km2,水域平均冲刷速率为-7.1 cm/a.31年间,口门内、外水域的淤积速率分别为0.77 cm/a和-1.97 cm/a.结论包括:近30年研究区的冲淤演变受到北支衰亡趋势、口内滩涂促淤围垦和长江流域建坝等引起的入海泥沙通量下降的影响,其中人类活动是近15年研究区冲淤演变的控制性因子.     

近50年“经济外交”概念研究述评

概述日本、欧美学术界、中国关于经济外交概念的研究状况,从纵向(历史上)和横向(现实中)两个方面对以往有关经济外交的定义和解释进行比较研究,在此基础上提出经济外交的新定义及简要的论证分析.     

Higher sea surface temperature in the northern South China Sea during the natural warm periods of late Holocene than recent decades

The large-scale syntheses of global mean temperatures in IPCC fourth report suggested that the Northern Hemisphere temperature in the second half of the 20th century was likely the highest in at least the past 1,300 years and the 1990s was likely the warmest decade. However, this remains debated and the controversy is centered on whether temperatures during the recent half century were higher than those during the Medieval Cli- mate Anomaly （MCA, AD 800-1300） and the Roman Warm Period （RWP, BC 200-AD 400）, the most recent two natural warm periods of the late Holocene. Here the high resolution sea surface temperatures （SSTs） of two time windows around AD 990 （±40） and AD 50 （±40）, which located in the MCA and RWP respectively, were reconstructed by the Sr/Ca ratio and 6180 of Tradacna gigas shells from the northern South China Sea. The resultssuggested that the mean SSTs around AD 990 （±40） and AD 50 （＋40） were 28.1 ℃ and 28.7 ℃, 0.8 ℃ and 1.4 ℃ higher than that during AD 199±2005, respectively. These records, together with the tree ring, lake sediment and literature records from the eastern China and northwest China, imply that the temperatures in recent decades do not seem to exceed the natural changes in MCA, at least in eastern Asia from northwest China to northern SCS.     

近40年世界肺癌研究文献计量分析

 运用文献计量学方法,从出版年度、发文国家、发文机构、来源期刊、涉及学科方向与ESI高被引论文等方面,通过SCI-E数据库对1979-2018年肺癌相关研究文献进行统计分析,检索获得肺癌文献178694篇。结果显示：世界范围内每年发表文献数量整体呈现上升趋势,美国、中国、日本、意大利、德国、英国、法国、加拿大、韩国、荷兰为世界肺癌研究10强,美国哈佛大学在肺癌研究中占有明显优势;世界肺癌领域研究活动显示出多学科交叉发展的特点;美国在来源期刊、发文机构、高被引论文等方面均拥有绝对优势;上海交通大学是中国唯一进入高发文机构前10的单位。近年来,中国肺癌领域文献数量增势强劲,产出已居世界第二,但文献质量未同步提升;中国肺癌研究应与临床应用紧密结合,协同开展以临床应用为重点的科技攻关。关键词肺癌研究;文献计量;肺癌研究态势     

Trend in the atmospheric heat source over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau during recent decades: Comparison of observations and reanalysis data

The trend in the atmospheric heat source over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau (CE-TP) is quantitatively estimated using historical observations at 71 meteorological stations, three reanalysis datasets from 1980-2008, and two satellite radiation datasets from 1984-2007. Results show that a weakening of sensible heat (SH) flux over the CE-TP continues. The most significant trend occurs in spring, induced mainly by decelerated surface wind speeds. The ground-air temperature difference shows a notable increasing trend over the last 5 years. Trends in net radiation flux of the atmospheric column over the CE-TP, evaluated by two satellite radiation datasets, are clearly different. Trends in the atmospheric heat source calculated by the three reanalysis datasets are not completely consistent, and even show opposite signals. Results from the two datasets both show a weakening of the heat source but the magnitude of one is significantly stronger, whereas an increase is indicated by the other data. Therefore, it is challenging to accurately calculate the trend in the atmospheric heat source over the CE-TP, particularly from the estimates of the reanalysis datasets.     

近百年包公研究述评

通过对近百年包公研究状况的回顾与综述 ,提出了对今后包公研究的几点思考     

2020年初湖北省PM2 .5和O3与往年同期时空差异对比研究

目的 探究COVID-19疫情防控期间PM2 .5和O3 浓度变化的潜在影响因素.方法 利用湖北省25个自动监测站点2015－2020年(1－3月)的PM2 .5 ,O3 以及相关大气污染物浓度数据,在对其进行空间插值的基础上,分析湖北省市域尺度PM 2 .5和O3 浓度数据空间演变,并结合气象资料和大气污染数据进行相关性分析,重点研究影响疫情防控期间PM2 .5和O3 时空分异特征的气象因素及经济因素.结果与结论 (1)湖北省13个市(州)PM2 .5浓度在疫情期间为近6 a来最低水平;其中,2月份荆门(57 μg/m3 ) 、荆州(42 μg/m3 ) 、随州(46 μg/m3 )和襄阳(59 μg/m3 )同比降幅最大,分别为38 .7%, 40%,39 .5% 及41 .6%;(2)疫情期间近地面O3 浓度有上升趋势,整体表现为1月波动,2月上升,3月下旬达到峰值,除荆州和宜昌外,其他市(州)浓度增长率均超过20%;(3 )从空间变化差异来看,湖北省PM2 .5和O3 浓度呈中部高、东部较低、西部最低的分布规律;(4)相关性分析表明,湖北省防疫期间生产制造业的停摆与PM2 .5的下降呈正相关;近地面O3 浓度的上升与PM2 .5等颗粒物的减少以及形成臭氧所需的前体物活跃度上升有关.     

近40年来鸭绿江口地区动态变化研究

为了研究鸭绿江口地区近40年来河岸、岛屿的变迁,冲刷和淤积情况。以1968年的侦察卫星遥感影像,2000年左右的ETM要遥感影像,2008年的ALOS遥感影像作为数据源,进行河岸岛屿等专题信息的提取,并对提取结果进行GIS空间分析来研究河岸、岛屿的时空动态变化。研究表明:40年来,由于自然和人为因素的影响,朝方和中方的面积都有所增加,但是朝方面积的增长率近我国增长率的80倍。增长速率近我国增长速率的10倍。     

近10年朱淑真研究述评

近10年关于朱淑真研究的突出特点是：对朱淑真生平事迹的考辨，能够突破史料不足的缺陷，更多的从作品本身寻找内证；对其作品的研究能突破男性文学的标准，在女性文学的背景下进行审视，肯定其文学史地位。     

浅议中国诗坛近十年的尴尬

诗歌在走过了“先锋诗”和“实验诗“的纯真年代，过渡到了20世纪90年代中期以后，面对物质化世界的冲击，诗歌逐渐陷入了物欲化的泥沼和“个人化”写作中，整个诗坛面临严峻的考验。     

国内最近5年藻类的研究进展

根据藻类研究一直是植物学研究的一个重点,就藻类资源及分类研究、藻类的化学组成和 藻类生理及生态学几个方面对国内最近5年的研究进展做了综述,以期发现未来几年藻类研究的 发展方向.     

近年来马克思社会形态理论研究述评

马克思的社会形态理论是近年来学术界研究的一个热点问题。本文拟就学术界关于这一理论研究中争论的焦点问题即社会形态的含义、“五形态”与“三形态”之争、“三形态”划分的差别、“两阶段”论、社会形态的“跨越”的主要观点进行综述，并且作一些评论。