ANALYSIS OF REGIONAL ECONOMY GROWTH WITH THE THEORY OF DIFFERENTIAL SYSTEM DYNAMICS

In order to describe the interrelation forces among different regions during the economic growth, this paper introduces and analyzes the dynamical system model with the theory of differential systems dynamics. A practical example based on a simplified model is given to analyze the dynamical process of Sichuan economy growth.     

SOME DEVELOPMENTS IN THE STUDIES OF META—SYNTHESIS SYSTEM APPROACH

In the early 1990s, Professor Qian Xuesen(Tsien HsueShen)and his colleagues proposed theMetasynthesis system approach for solving the open complex giant system problems. The methodemphasizes the synthesis of collected information and knowledge of various kinds of experts, andcombining quantitative methods with qualitative knowledge. Later it is evolved into Hall of Workshopfor Meta-Synthetic Engineering (HWMSE)which emphasizes to make use of breaking advances ininformation technologies. Then continuous endeavors have been taken to put those ideas into practice.With tremendous advances in networking and distributed computing technologies, past difficulties inimplementation are disappearing together with further understandings of HWMSE and fruitful resultsachieved in similar or relevant research fields in recent years in China. In this paper some of thosedevelopment are introduced, together with some parallel research work abroad.     

CHARACTERISTIC ALTERNATING-DIRECTION FINITE ELEMENT METHODS FOR NONRECTANGULAR REGIONS FOR COUPLED SYSTEM OF DYNAMICS OF FLUIDS IN POROUS MEDIA AND ITS ANALYSIS

For coupled system of multilayer dynamics of fluids in porous media, the characteristic alternating-direction finite element methods for nourectangular regions applicable to parallel arithmetic are put forward and two-dimensional and three-dimensional schemes are used to form a complete set. Some techniques, such as calculus of variations, isoparametric transformation, patch approximation, operator-splitting, characteristic method, negative norm estimate, energy method, the theory of prior estimates and techniques are used. For the nourectangular regions case, optimal order estimates in L^2 norm are derived for the error in the approximation solution. Thus the well-known theoretical problem has been thoroughly and completely solved. These methods have been successfully used in multilayer oil resources migration-accumulation numerical simulation.     

META-SYNTHESIS APPROACH TO EXPLORING CONSTRUCTING COMPREHENSIVE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM IN CHINA

1 Introduction Transportation is a basic and indispensable element in social economic development Great achievements have been reached intransportation in China since the adoption of reform and opening policy in 1978 To meet the continuously increasing demands from the socioeconomic development for a harmony andwell-off living society, a national integrative transportation system instead of separate planning by individual transport mode has been under consideration to deal with old and emergin…     

GROUP SIZE AND PARALLELISM EFFECTS IN TASKS WITHHETEROGENEOUS LEVELS OF DIFFICULTY：A STOCHASTIC ORDER APPROACH

We consider tasks where in order to perform them it is sufficient that one member of a group will know how to do it. We are interested in the effect of task difficulty, and variability of that difficulty, on group performance, and in particular on the marginal contribution of an additional number to the performance of groups of different size. We explore the implications of various stochastic orders over task difficulty and variability. Some intuitive conjectures are shown to be false.     

STRATEGIC EXERCISE OF REAL OPTIONS：INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

Viewing investment projects in new technologies as real options, this paper studies the effects ofendogenous competition and asymmetric information on the strategic exercise of real options. We firstdevelop a multi-period, game-theoretic model and show how competition leads to early exercise andaggressive investment behaviors and how competition erodes option values. We then relax the typicalfull-information assumption found in the literature and allow information asymmetry to exist acrossfirms. Our model shows, in contrast to the literature that payoff is independent of the ordering ofexercise, that the sequential exercise of real options may generate both informational and payoffexternalities. We also find some surpising but interesting results such as having more information isnot necessarily better.     

生产能力扩大的系统动态性研究

利用系统动力学的原理和建模方法描述了企业生产能力与企业物流、信息流与资金流所涉及的各种计划、生产、采购、仓储、销售及财务等职能的关系，利用因果环路图研究分析了生产能力与库存水平、交货期、市场份额、产品价格、成本、利润率、人力等多种因素的因果反馈关系，并构建了生产能力扩大的系统动力学模型来刻画其变化的复杂性与动态性，在两种市场需求（阶跃需求和泊松流随机需求）下模型的仿真结果表明，该模型能较好的反应生产能力扩大的动态行为。     

航天企业基于知识流的知识管理体系框架

针对航天企业实施知识管理的薄弱环节,从系统工程角度出发,在简述企业知识管理体系基本功能的基础上,提出了基于知识流的知识管理体系框架和主要设计原则。重点阐述了基于知识流的航天企业知识管理框架模型和知识管理体系框架,并针对航天企业科研生产一体化的特点,分析了航天型号全寿命过程中从预研到研制过程的知识管理流程,以及研制过程与批生产过程的知识集成模式。对知识管理体系框架下科研生产一体化的发展趋势进行了初步探讨。     

航空制造企业技改项目管理动态特性仿真研究

在分析航空制造企业技术改造（简称技改）项目管理整体动态控制特点的基础上,利用因果环路图描述了项目阶段、控制对象和资源能力等各方面因素的动态反馈关系。通过建立技改项目管理系统动力学模型描述了技改项目管理的动态流程,以及进度控制、质量控制和资源能力管理等过程。3种典型情况（理想情况、工期压缩和验收质量下降）下模型的仿真表明,该模型能够较好地反映技改项目管理过程中的各类复杂动态特性,并能够辅助技改项目管理和决策。     

基于系统动力学的供应链稳定性研究

为了提高供应链系统的稳定性,基于系统动力学方法建立了具有两种典型延迟模式(一阶指数延迟和纯时间延迟)的二级供应链系统模型,并定义了供应链稳定性概念及判据。通过对模型进行仿真,得到了不同含义下供应链系统的稳定边界,统一了不同研究方法的结论。结果表明,供应链的稳定性主要取决于系统的反馈控制结构,决策者主观偏好与外部环境必须通过反馈控制结构才能影响系统稳定性,加强信息共享有利于提高系统稳定性并削弱牛鞭效应。     

企业知识管理系统相对柔性的DEA方法

从社会-技术系统角度理解企业知识管理系统(enterprise knowledge management system，EKMS)柔性的组成．在建立相应的测度企业知识管理系统柔性指标体系基础上，利用DEA方法，选择合适的比较模型，分析企业知识管理系统相对柔性．从而促使企业从影响企业知识管理系统柔性的有关指标着手，分析现存的问题及其产生原因，以增强企业适应复杂多变的市场环境的能力．     

Knowing and Acting in Conditions of Uncertainty: A Complexity Perspective

As practitioners working with groups and organizations, we have reflected together on what we think is happening when we find ourselves acting into situations in which the intention motivating the action as its goal is itself emerging in the very action. Along with others, we have been excited by the ideas of self-organization in the natural sciences and also theories of practice, for example, tacit and explicit knowledge, in the social sciences. Together, these promise fresh insights into the potential of organizations. However, we find ourselves diverging significantly from writers who at first sight seem to be using similar ideas, but they do so with an exclusive focus on strategic choice and intention. To illustrate what we mean, we explore the work of Nonaka and Takeuchi and how they use Polanyi's idea of the participant observer. We do this to identify contradictions we see in their approach. We also discuss the implications of an alternative understanding of participation and what this indicates about what can and cannot be managed in the creation of new knowledge.     

面向应用领域的知识系统建模及实现

针对知识系统建模过程中不同类型知识的组织、表示、控制和实现等问题,将用户需求作为重要的切入点,通过对用户的需求分析和分解将知识系统数据结构划分为领域概念知识(概念本体)、领域系统知识(方法本体)、需求分解知识(需求本体)、知识系统控制知识和解释知识5大部分,建立了各部分的数据结构,明确了相互之间的关系。提出了基于层次案例规划(hierarchicalcase basedplanning,HCBP)的需求本体建立检索及面向目标的黑板控制结构和改进算法。实例测试表明,该方法不仅有利于不同类型知识块的重用,而且提高了系统的执行效率,大大缩短了知识系统的开发周期。