Model–proxy comparison for overshoot phenomenon of Atlantic thermohaline circulation at Bφlling–Allerφd

The overshoot phenomenon of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation （THC） is a transient climate response to meltwater forcing and could induce intense climate change by increasing the magnitudes of Atlantic THC changes at the end of meltwater discharges. This phenomenon was formally presented with the successfully simulated Bolling-Allerod （BA） event in the first transient simulation of the last deglaciation with fully coupled model NCAR-CCSM3 （TraCE-21K）. Currently, not all proxy records of Atlantic THC support the occurrence of the THC overshoot at BA. Commonly used THC proxy from Bermuda Rise （GGC5） does not exhibit THC overshoot at BA but other proxies such as TTR-451 at Eirik Drift do. How to interpret this regional discrepancy of proxy records is a key question for the validation of the Atlantic THC overshoot at BA. Here, we show that the vigor of deep circulation varies regionally during the Atlantic THC overshoot at BA in TraCE-21K simulation, and this regional discrepancy in the simulation is consistent with that in the marine sediment records in North Atlantic. The consistent model-proxy evidence supports the occurrence of Atlantic THC overshoot at BA.     

Melt-Water-Pulse （MWP） events and abrupt climate change of the last deglaciation

The last deglaciation is characterized by massive ice sheet melting, which results in an average sea-level rise of -120-140m. At least three major Melt-Water-Pulse （MWP） events （19ka-MWP, MWP-1A and MWP-1B） are recognizable for the last deglaciation, of which MWP-1A event lasting from -14.2 to -13.7 ka B.P. is of the most significance. However, the accurate timing and source of MWP-1A event remain debatable and controversial. It has long been postulated that meltwater of the last deglaciaUon pouring into the North Atlantic resulted in a slowdown or even a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation （THC） which subsequently affected the global climate change. Accordingly, the focus of this debate consists in establishing a reasonable relationship between MWP events and abrupt climate change. Here we summarize a variety of geological and model results for the last deglaciation, reaching a conclusion that the major MWP events did not correspond with the rigorous stadials, nor always happened within climate reversal intervals. MWP events of the last deglaciation had very weak influences on the intensity of the THC and were not able to trigger a collapse of the global climate. We need to reevaluate the influences of the temporal meltwater variability on the global climate system.     

Comparison of paleoclimatic characteristics between monsoon and westerly areas, China

For past decades there have been many studies on the climate features during the last interglacial and glacial periods. A comparison between the loess record of western China with that of monsoon areas shows some regional differences. ( i) Generally, the climate of the Yili region since the late Pleistocene was dry, with fluctuations. Late Pleistocene climate change in the study area can be divided into 5 stages, corresponding to 5 marine isotopic stages (MIS 1-MISS), (ii) Evidence from grain size composition, magnetic susceptibility, carbonate content, pollen assemblage and geochemistry shows that the climate during the last glacial period was instable. During MIS4 the westerly winds were strong and the humidity was relatively high. Compared with the early stage, MIS2 was dry. In MIS3, westerly winds were relatively weak; pedogenesis prevailed, forming paleo-sols. (iii) In contrast to the Loess Plateau the deposition rate of dust at the early stage was higher than at the late stage of the last galical in the Yili region. The strongest wind event occurred at about 24 kaBP instead of 18 kaBP. (iv) Variations in the grain size indicate that the westerly winds decreased since the deglaciation, but dust accumulation continued until the late Holocene. High carbonate contents, low ratio of Rb/Sr and lack of soil development imply that the climate was dry during the early and middle Holocene. Since the late Holocene the climate became relatively wet and the soil was developed.     

气候变化情景下中国东部地区未来气候舒适度变化预测

选取中国东部691个数据记录较完整的站点, 统计各站点1971—2010年间每年每季的热日、冷日和舒适日天数, 利用温湿指数(THI), 评价中国东部季风区近40年的舒适度变化, 并结合未来情景下气象数据的比较和分析, 展望21世纪末中国东部地区的舒适度变化趋势。结果表明, 1971—2010年间, 中国东部季风区在一定程度上变暖, 东北和华南的气候敏感度高于其他地区, 沿海的气候敏感度高于内陆, 东北地区对气候变化的响应程度较高。     

The two-step monsoon changes of the last deglaciation recorded in tropical Maar Lake Huguangyan, southern China

The concentrations of biogenic silica, total organic carbon, total nitrogen and total hydrogen inferred from the sediments of tropical Maar Lake Huguangyan, southern China, provide a climate record of the last déglaciation with century resolution. The records fully demonstrate the existence of the two-step shape of the last déglaciation in tropic East Asia, and they point out noticeable differences between the low and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Thus, the Boiling first warming at the last deglaciation in the low latitude may have preceded that of the high latitude, whereas the cooling of the Younger Dryas occurred synchronously in the two regions. These results likely suggest that the links between the low and high latitude climates in the Northern Hemisphere during this period are complexity.     

Rapid oscillations of Chinese monsoon climate since the last deglaciation and its comparison with GISP2 record

The geographic extent of the climate oscillations during the last deglaciation is an open question in the world. Here a high resolution climate record from a 16 000 C-14 a loess sequence in the northwestern margin of the Chinese Loess Plateau is reported. Comparison with GISP2 record shows that all major climate oscillation (e. g. Oldest Dryas/ Boiling/ Older Dryas/ Allerod/ Younger Dryas) in the North Atlantic region also registered in the record. In addition, the sequence also contains some other distinctive strengthened winter monsoon periods. It is suggested that a coupling mechanism operate between the two areas, and climate oscillations in the North Atlantic region may not be a local phenomenon.     

温盐环流对气候突变的影响

由于全球气候变暖的一个负反馈机制——温盐环流的存在,使得气候在变暖过程中有可能出现突然变冷事件．地质历史时期气候突变事件的研究表明：这种潜在的突然变冷事件可能会持续几百年甚至上千年．加强对温盐环流强度变化的监测研究对于预测未来的气候变化,制定防灾减灾措施具有重要意义．     

气候变化对中国农业的影响

 在全球气候变化背景下,中国的气温不断增高,近50年中国年平均地表气温增加了1.1℃,明显高于全球;降水变化趋势不明显,年代际波动较大,也存在明显的地区差别;极端天气气候事件不断增多。未来气候变化情景,预计中国北方增温幅度高于南方,青藏高原增温最明显,年降水量增加显著区域为华北、西北及东北地区,长江中下游沿岸及其以南地区有小幅度增加。气候变暖将使粮食作物水稻、玉米和小麦的生育期缩短,产量下降;有利于棉花生产,能提高北方棉花产量和品质;三熟区面积将扩大约22.4%,一熟区面积约缩小23.1%,作物种植结构和作物品种的布局将发生变化;主要农作物病虫害呈加重趋势;对温带和寒带的家畜生长是有利的,对热带和亚热带家畜和牧草生长不利;中国四大海区主要经济鱼种的产量和渔获量有不同程度的降低;气候变暖将使中国各类自然植被发生明显北移,土地荒漠化危害范围加大,土壤肥力下降,并增加农业灌溉的需水量,农业水资源供需矛盾加剧。中国农业应对气候变化包括减缓和适应两个方面,应减缓和适应并重。     

Snowball Earth termination by destabilization of equatorial permafrost methane clathrate

The start of the Ediacaran period is defined by one of the most severe climate change events recorded in Earth history--the recovery from the Marinoan 'snowball' ice age, approximately 635 Myr ago (ref. 1). Marinoan glacial-marine deposits occur at equatorial palaeolatitudes, and are sharply overlain by a thin interval of carbonate that preserves marine carbon and sulphur isotopic excursions of about -5 and +15 parts per thousand, respectively; these deposits are thought to record widespread oceanic carbonate precipitation during postglacial sea level rise. This abrupt transition records a climate system in profound disequilibrium and contrasts sharply with the cyclical stratigraphic signal imparted by the balanced feedbacks modulating Phanerozoic deglaciation. Hypotheses accounting for the abruptness of deglaciation include ice albedo feedback, deep-ocean out-gassing during post-glacial oceanic overturn or methane hydrate destabilization. Here we report the broadest range of oxygen isotope values yet measured in marine sediments (-25 per thousand to +12 per thousand) in methane seeps in Marinoan deglacial sediments underlying the cap carbonate. This range of values is likely to be the result of mixing between ice-sheet-derived meteoric waters and clathrate-derived fluids during the flushing and destabilization of a clathrate field by glacial meltwater. The equatorial palaeolatitude implies a highly volatile shelf permafrost pool that is an order of magnitude larger than that of the present day. A pool of this size could have provided a massive biogeochemical feedback capable of triggering deglaciation and accounting for the global postglacial marine carbon and sulphur isotopic excursions, abrupt unidirectional warming, cap carbonate deposition, and a marine oxygen crisis. Our findings suggest that methane released from low-latitude permafrost clathrates therefore acted as a trigger and/or strong positive feedback for deglaciation and warming. Methane hydrate destabilization is increasingly suspected as an important positive feedback to climate change that coincides with critical boundaries in the geological record and may represent one particularly important mechanism active during conditions of strong climate forcing.     

Impacts of climate warming on plants phenophases in China for the last 40 years

Based on plant phenology data from 26 stations of the Chinese Phenology Observation Network of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the climate data, the change of plant phenophase in spring and the impact of climate warming on the plant phenophase in China for the last 40 years are analyzed. Furthermore, the geographical distribution models of phenophase in every decade are reconstructed, and the impact of climate warming on geographical distribution model of phenophase is studied as well. The results show that (ⅰ) the response of phenophase advance or delay to temperature change is nonlinear. Since the 1980s, at the same amplitude of temperature change, phenophase delay amplitude caused by temperature decrease is greater than phenophase advance amplitude caused by temperature increase; the rate of phenophase advance days decreases with temperature increase amplitude, and the rate of phenophase delay days increases with temperature decrease amplitude. (ⅱ) The geographical distribution model between phenophase and geographical location is unstable. Since the 1980s, with the spring temperature increasing in the most of China and decreasing in the south of Qinling Mountains, phenophases have advanced in northeastern China, North China and the lower reaches of the Changjiang River, and have delayed in the eastern part of southwestern China and the middle reaches of the Changjiang River; while the rate of the phenophase difference with latitude becomes smaller.     

Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation

The covariation of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentration and temperature in Antarctic ice-core records suggests a close link between CO(2) and climate during the Pleistocene ice ages. The role and relative importance of CO(2) in producing these climate changes remains unclear, however, in part because the ice-core deuterium record reflects local rather than global temperature. Here we construct a record of global surface temperature from 80 proxy records and show that temperature is correlated with and generally lags CO(2) during the last (that is, the most recent) deglaciation. Differences between the respective temperature changes of the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere parallel variations in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation recorded in marine sediments. These observations, together with transient global climate model simulations, support the conclusion that an antiphased hemispheric temperature response to ocean circulation changes superimposed on globally in-phase warming driven by increasing CO(2) concentrations is an explanation for much of the temperature change at the end of the most recent ice age.     

末次冰消期以来古气候演化研究进展及展望

 从盛冰期到全新世之间的末次冰消期经历了地球表层系统的一次巨变,期间发生了一系列气候突变事件,在全球不同地区以不同的方式回应着这些事件的变化过程。末次冰消期转暖的过程和机制一直是古气候研究的热点。本文综述了末次冰消期以来的古气候/季风演化研究成果,指出海陆交界敏感地带的陆架区对全球环境变化十分敏感,陆架区沉积物蕴含了丰富的气候/季风演化信息,对陆架区沉积物中古气候代用指标的提取,东亚季风演化历史及其驱动机制、季风的差异和交互作用、季风在各个时间尺度上的驱动机制等问题的分析均具有重要意义,可以为地区及全球环境变化提供科学依据。     

Interhemispheric climate links revealed by late-glacial cooling episode in southern Chile

Understanding the relative timings of climate events in the Northern and Southern hemispheres is a prerequisite for determining the causes of abrupt climate changes. But climate records from the Patagonian Andes and New Zealand for the period of transition from glacial to interglacial conditions--about 14.6-10 kyr before present, as determined by radiocarbon dating--show varying degrees of correlation with similar records from the Northern Hemisphere. It is necessary to resolve these apparent discrepancies in order to be able to assess the relative roles of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and oceanic, atmospheric and astronomical influences in initiating climate change in the late-glacial period. Here we report pollen records from three sites in the Lake District of southern Chile (41 degrees S) from which we infer conditions similar to modern climate between about 13 and 12.2 14C kyr before present (BP), followed by cooling events at about 12.2 and 11.4 14C kyr BP, and then by a warming at about 9.8 14C kyr BP. These events were nearly synchronous with important palaeoclimate changes recorded in the North Atlantic region, supporting the idea that interhemispheric linkage through the atmosphere was the primary control on climate during the last deglaciation. In other regions of the Southern Hemisphere, where climate events are not in phase with those in the Northern Hemisphere, local oceanic influences may have counteracted the effects that propagated through the atmosphere.     

Ice-sheet collapse and sea-level rise at the Bølling warming 14,600 years ago

Past sea-level records provide invaluable information about the response of ice sheets to climate forcing. Some such records suggest that the last deglaciation was punctuated by a dramatic period of sea-level rise, of about 20?metres, in less than 500?years. Controversy about the amplitude and timing of this meltwater pulse (MWP-1A) has, however, led to uncertainty about the source of the melt water and its temporal and causal relationships with the abrupt climate changes of the deglaciation. Here we show that MWP-1A started no earlier than 14,650 years ago and ended before 14,310 years ago, making it coeval with the B?lling warming. Our results, based on corals drilled offshore from Tahiti during Integrated Ocean Drilling Project Expedition 310, reveal that the increase in sea level at Tahiti was between 12 and 22 metres, with a most probable value between 14 and 18 metres, establishing a significant meltwater contribution from the Southern Hemisphere. This implies that the rate of eustatic sea-level rise exceeded 40 millimetres per year during MWP-1A.     

Simulated and reconstructed winter temperature in the eastern China during the last millennium

Since the 1990s, under the auspicious impetus of two international research programs, the “Past Global Changes” (PAGES) and the “Climate Variability and Pre- dictability” (CLIVAR), massive research work has been carried out on climate and environment changes over the past 2000 years[1-3]. But majority of the studies has been centered on obtaining various kinds of climatic proxy data (such as historical documents, tree rings, ice cores, lake cores) and focused on the reconstruction of…     

Uncertainty in crossing time of 2 °C warming threshold over China

The 2 °C warming target has been used widely in global and regional climate change research. Previous studies have shown large uncertainties in the time when surface air temperature (SAT) change over China will reach 2 °C relative to the pre-industrial era. To understand the uncertainties, we analyzed the projected SAT in the twenty-first century using 40 state-of-the-art climate models under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The 2 °C threshold-crossing time (TCT) of SAT averaged across China was around 2033 and 2029 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Considering a ±1σ range of intermodel SAT change, the upper and lower bounds of the 2 °C TCT could differ by about 25 years or even more. Uncertainty in the projected SAT and the warming rate around the TCT are the two main factors responsible for the TCT uncertainty. The former is determined by the climate sensitivity represented by the global mean surface temperature response. About 45 % of the intermodel variance of the projected 2 °C TCT for averaged SAT over China can be explained by climate sensitivity across the models, which is contributed mainly by central and southern China. In a climate more sensitive to CO₂ forcing, stronger greenhouse effect, less stratus cloud over the East Asian monsoon region, and less snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau result in increased downward longwave radiation, increased shortwave radiation, and decreased shortwave radiation reflected by the surface, respectively, all of which may advance the TCT.     

Southern Ocean origin for the resumption of Atlantic thermohaline circulation during deglaciation

During the two most recent deglaciations, the Southern Hemisphere warmed before Greenland. At the same time, the northern Atlantic Ocean was exposed to meltwater discharge, which is generally assumed to reduce the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water. Yet during deglaciation, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation became more vigorous, in the transition from a weak glacial to a strong interglacial mode. Here we use a three-dimensional ocean circulation model to investigate the impact of Southern Ocean warming and the associated sea-ice retreat on the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. We find that a gradual warming in the Southern Ocean during deglaciation induces an abrupt resumption of the interglacial mode of the thermohaline circulation, triggered by increased mass transport into the Atlantic Ocean via the warm (Indian Ocean) and cold (Pacific Ocean) water route. This effect prevails over the influence of meltwater discharge, which would oppose a strengthening of the thermohaline circulation. A Southern Ocean trigger for the transition into an interglacial mode of circulation provides a consistent picture of Southern and Northern hemispheric climate change at times of deglaciation, in agreement with the available proxy records.     

Weak response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide in IAP／LASG Climate System Model

Response of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) to global warming is examined by using the climate system model developed at IAP/LASG. The evidence indicates that the gradually warming climate associated with the increased atmospheric carbon dioxide leads to a warmer and fresher sea surface water at the high latitudes of the North Atlantic Ocean, which prevents the down-welling of the surface water. The succedent reduction of the pole-toequator meridional potential density gradient finally results in the decrease of the THC in intensity. When the atmospheric carbon dioxide is doubled, the maximum value of the Atlantic THC decreases approximately by 8%. The associated poleward oceanic heat transport also becomes weaker. This kind of THC weakening centralizes mainly in the northern part of the North Atlantic basin, indicating briefly a local scale adjustment rather than a loop oscillation with the whole Atlantic “conveyor belt” decelerating.     

Recent temperature increase recorded in an ice core in the source region of Yangtze River

Interests on climate change in the source region of Yangtze River have been raised since it is a region with the greatest warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). A 70-year history of precipitation δ~(18)O has been recovered using an ice core record retrieved in a plat portion of the firn area in the Guoqu Glacier (33°34′37.8″N, 91°10′35.3″E, 5720 m a.s.l.), Mt. Geladaindong (the source region of Yangtze River), in November, 2005. By using a significant positive relationship between ice core δ~(18)O record and summer air temperature (July to September) from the nearby meteorological stations, a history of summer air temperature has been reconstructed for the last 70 years. Summer temperature was relatively low in 1940s and high in 1950s to the middle of 1960s. The lowest temperature occurred in the middle of 1970s. Temperature was low in 1980s and dramatically increased since 1990s, keeping the trend to the begin-ning of the 21st century. The warming rate recorded in the ice core with 0.5℃/10 a since 1970s is much higher that that in the central TP and the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and it becomes 1.1℃/10 a since 1990s which is also higher than these from the central TP and the NH, reflecting an accelerated warm-ing and a more sensitive response to global warming in the high elevation region.     

Evolution of heat transport pathways in the Indonesian Archipelago during last deglaciation

The Indonesian Archipelago provides important heat transport pathways of the Western Pacific Warm Pool between the northern Indian Ocean and western equatorial Pacific Ocean, that exert important impacts on global climate change. This study investigated AMS ¹⁴C, δ¹⁸O, planktonic foraminifer assemblages and sedimentation rates in three piston cores collected in the Indonesian Archipelago. The results indicate that changes in the Indonesian Archipelago heat transport pathways were phase characteristic and in steps during the last deglaciation. In the deglaciation Termination IA, at about 12.5 kaBP, sea level rose rapidly in a short time period, and Makassar and Lombok straits widened suddenly for warm and fresh water from the Pacific to pour into the Java Sea and eastern Indian Ocean. During the Termination IB, about 9.5 kaBP, sea level rose rapidly again, and the South China Sea (SCS) started to connect with the Java Sea. With monsoon actions, a large amount of fresh water from the SCS shelf area flew through the Indonesian Archipelago.