1998-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and constituent countries

The 1998-based national population projections, carried out by the Government Actuary in consultation with the Registrars General, show the population of the United Kingdom rising from 59.2 million in 1998 to over 63.5 million by 2021. Longer-term projections suggest the population will peak around 2036 and then gradually start to fall. The population will become gradually older with the median age expected to rise from 36.9 years in 1998 to nearly 42 years by 2021. In 1998, there were 1.4 million (13 per cent) more children aged under 16, than people of pensionable age. However, by 2008, the population of pensionable age is projected to exceed the number of children.     

2002-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and constituent countries

The 2002-based national population projections, carried out by the Government Actuary in consultation with the Registrars General, show the population of the United Kingdom rising from 59.2 million in 2002 to nearly 65 million by 2031. Longer-term projections suggest the population will peak around 2050 at over 65 million and then gradually start to fall. The population will become gradually older with the median age expected to rise from 38.2 years in 2002 to 43.3 years by 2031. In 2002, there were around 850 thousand (8 per cent) more children aged under 16, than people of state pensionable age. However, from 2007, the population of pensionable age is projected to exceed the number of children.     

Interim 2001-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and constituent countries

This article describes new 2001-based national population projections which were carried out following the publication in September 2002 of the first results of the 2001 Census. These "interim" projections, carried out by the Government Actuary in consultation with the Registrars General, take preliminary account of the results of the Census which showed that the base population used in previous projections was overestimated. The interim projections also incorporate a reduced assumption of net international migration to the United Kingdom, informed by the first results of the 2001 Census and taking account of more recent migration information. The population of the United Kingdom is now projected to increase from an estimated 58.8 million in 2001 to reach 63.2 million by 2026. The projected population at 2026 is about 1.8 million (2.8 per cent) lower than in the previous (2000-based) projections.     

Interim 2003-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and constituent countries

The 2003-based national population projections, carried out by the Government Actuary in consultation with the Registrars General, and using essentially the same underlying assumptions as for the previous 2002-based projections, show the population of the United Kingdom rising from 59.6 million in 2003, passing 60 million during 2005, to reach 65.7 million by 2031. Longer-term projections suggest the population will peak around 2050 at nearly 67 million and then very gradually start to fall. The population will become older with the median age expected to rise from 38.4 years in 2003 to 43.3 years by 2031. In 2003, there were around 700 thousand (six per cent) more children aged under 16, than people of state pensionable age. However, from 2007, the population of pensionable age is projected to exceed the number of children.     

Variant population projections for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries

Interest has been growing steadily in understanding the impact of the inherent uncertainty in the national population projections. As a result, the Government Acturay's Department has recently produced the most extensive set of official variant projections ever published in the United Kingdom. These include 'standard' variants based on alternative high and low assumptions for future fertility, life expectancy and net migration and also a number of 'special case scenarios.' All of these variants have been produced at both UK and individual country level. This article describes the full range of variant projections available from the 2000-based national projections and summaries some of the key results for both the UK and the individual countries.     

2004-based national population projections for the UK and constituent countries

The 2004-based national population projections, carried out by the Government Actuary in consultation with the Registrars General, show the population of the United Kingdom (UK) rising from 59.8 million in 2004, passing 60 million in 2005 and 65 million in 2023, to reach 67.0 million by 2031. In the longer-term, the projections suggest that the population will continue rising beyond 2031 but at a much lower rate of growth. The population will become older with the median age expected to rise from 38.6 years in 2004 to 42.9 years by 2031. With the current plans for a common state pension age of 65 for both sexes from 2020, the number of people of working age for every person of state pensionable age is projected to fall from 3.33 in 2004 to 2.62 by 2031.     

2006-based national population projections for the U.K. and constituent countries

The 2006-based national population projections, carried out by the Office for National Statistics in consultation with the devolved administrations, show the population of the UK rising from 60.6 million in 2006, passing 65 million in 2016 and 70 million in 2028, to reach 71.1 million by 2031. In the longer-term, the projections suggest that the population will continue rising beyond 2031 for the full length of the projection period. The population will become older with the median age expected to rise from 39.0 years in 2006 to 41.8 years by 2031. Since the last projection round legislation has been passed to increase the state pension age from 65 to 66 for both sexes between 2024 and 2026. Despite this change, the number of people of working age for every person of state pensionable age will reduce from 3.32 in 2006 to 2.91 by 2031. The legislation includes further increases in the state pension age to 68 for both sexes by 2046.     

Assumptions for the 2000-based national population projections

This article summarises the long-term assumptions of fertility, mortality and net migration which will underlie the forthcoming 2000-based national population projections. Compared with the current (1998-based) projections, the new projections will assume lower levels of fertility, but higher levels of inward net migration. There will be relatively little change to mortality assumptions. Results of the new projections will be available on 15 November 2001.     

Fertility assumptions for the 2002-based national population projections

One of the key components of national population projections is the assumed level of fertility, which determines the number of future births in the projections. Assumptions are made in terms of the average number of children women will have over their lifetime. For the 2002-based projections this average is assumed to ultimately be 1.75 for England and for Wales, 1.60 for Scotland, and 1.80 for Northern Ireland, leading to a United Kingdom assumption of 1.74. This article explains how these overall assumptions, which are the same as assumed in the 2000-based and interim 2001-based projections, are derived. It also explains why these levels are higher than current 'period' indicators of fertility. Finally, information on more detailed age specific fertility rates, and implications for family size distributions, is given.     

Fertility assumptions for the 2006-based national population projections

Fertility is one of the key components of the national population projections, alongside mortality and migration. For the 2006-based population projections, long-term completed family size in the U.K. is assumed to be 1.84 children per woman. This represents an increase of 0.10 on the assumption of 1.74 children per woman used in the 2004-based round. Although the U.K's long-term fertilit assumption has been lowered several time in recent years, this is the first time it has been raised since the 1960s baby boom. This article outlines why ONS decided to raise the long-term fertility assumptio for all four U.K. countries in the 2006-based population projections     

Immigration, emigration and the ageing of the overseas-born population in the United Kingdom

This article uses data from the 1971 and 2001 Censuses, the 1999-2003 Labour Force Survey and the 1977 to 2002 International Passenger Survey to investigate the migration processes contributing to the age structure and ageing of the UK's overseas-born population. Overall almost half of recent decades' immigrants to the UK emigrate again within five years of arrival, but with large variation by overseas country of birth. Between half and two thirds of the immigrants born in the continental European Union, North America and Oceania emigrate again within five years, while 15 per cent of those born in the Indian subcontinent do so. Significant cumulative emigration more than five years after arrival is seen among earlier immigrants from the Indian subcontinent, the Caribbean Commonwealth and Europe. Large country-of-origin variations in the ratio of pension-age population to working-age population primarily reflect the country composition of immigration streams 30 or more years before.     

Intergenerational replacement and migration in the countries and regions of the United Kingdom, 1971-2009

This article uses a recently proposed measure, the overall replacement ratio or ORR, to assess the extent to which migration alters intergenerational replacement within the United Kingdom. The UK as a whole can be seen to experience 'replacement migration' as immigration compensates for fertility below the replacement level. However, the article shows that the impact of migration differs radically in the different regions of the country. South East England experiences very substantial immigration from both the rest of the UK and overseas, far more than is needed for intergenerational replacement, whereas most of the rest of the UK sees little or no net immigration and the ORR remains below the replacement level.     

The demographic characteristics of the oldest old in the United Kingdom

Those aged 85 and over (the oldest old) are the fastest growing age group in the population of many developed countries. However it is still uncommon to find statistics and analysis of this age group in current reporting. This article draws together demographic characteristics of people aged 85 and over from various different national data sources to provide an up-to-date picture of the oldest old.     

A picture of the United Kingdom using the National Statistics Socio-economic classification

This article describes the socio-economic characteristics of working age people in the United Kingdom in 2005 based on the National Statistics Socio-economic Classification. The population is described by NS-SEC and gender, age-group, region or household type.     

The new subnational population projections model: methodology and projection scenarios

This article describes the most recent process of projecting population at the subnational level in England. It briefly explains the reasons why projecting population at the subnational level is important, describes the model and how it was used to produce the latest set of long-term subnational population projections in England published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in 1998. The article then discusses how the model may be applied to answer various 'what-if' questions about future population.     

A comparison of official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales

We compare official population projections with Bayesian time series forecasts for England and Wales. The Bayesian approach allows the integration of uncertainty in the data, models and model parameters in a coherent and consistent manner. Bayesian methodology for time-series forecasting is introduced, including autoregressive (AR) and stochastic volatility (SV) models. These models are then fitted to a historical time series of data from 1841 to 2007 and used to predict future population totals to 2033. These results are compared to the most recent projections produced by the Office for National Statistics. Sensitivity analyses are then performed to test the effect of changes in the prior uncertainty for a single parameter. Finally, in-sample forecasts are compared with actual population and previous official projections. The article ends with some conclusions and recommendations for future work.     

Strategic ideologies and state hegemony,with empirical illustrations from Japan and the United Kingdom

The idea of constitutive and strategic ideologies reflects the analytical distinction between ideologies as outcomes of an inverted reality and ideologies as conditions for the reproduction of that inverted reality. The paper gives two empirical illustrations (from Japan and the United Kingdom) of strategic ideologies, showing how isolated events, which would have normally attracted little attention, became dramatized out of proportion in the false name of attempting to restore/maintain social order. The paper suggests that such reactionary responses are typical of contemporary social systems when faced with problems of weakening internal hegemony (social integration). Instead of recognizing that such problems potentially stem from structurally inherent system-imperatives, the powers in those social systems uncritically and yet strategically seek explanation and place responsibility upon accidental but opportune “events” deemed external and inimical to the mainstream “life-world.” The paper suggests that the interest of liberating systems theory and practice can be advanced by systematic efforts to unmask the ideological concealments so prevalent in our contemporary social formation.     

Modelling student age-groups in the subnational population projections for England: an investigation into potential improvements

This article describes research aimed at improving modeling of student age-groups in the ONS subnational population projections for England. A number of data-sources were investigated, and the research focused on Higher Education Statistics Agency data. Although the coverage of HESA data is not sufficient to enable student populations to be projected separately, the data have been used to devise an adjustment method for the student-age population. Both the data and method will be monitored and, if appropriate, used in future projections.     

International migration to and from the United Kingdom, 1975-1999: consistency, change and implications for the labour market

This article presents some findings of a recent study carried out for the Home Office by the Migration Research Unit (MRU) in the Department of Geography at UCL. The study was concerned with patterns and trends in international migration to and from the United Kingdom since 1975, with a particular focus on those in employment, and drew on many sources. The statistics analysed here derive from the International Passenger Survey, including hitherto unpublished tables provided by the Office for National Statistics on migration of the employed by citizenship. They indicate remarkable consistency in some aspects of migration flows and major change in others.     

Improved algorithm for RDO in JPEG2000 encoder and its IC design

1 .INTRODUCTIONJPEG2000is a newi mage codingstandard usingstate-of-the-art compression techniques based on wavelet trans-formationfor still i mage compression.It has a variety ofapplications from digital cameras through to advancedmedium, medical i maging, mobile application,remotesensing etc. Hardware i mplementation of JPEG2000 isveryi mportant for suchapplications.The block diagramof a JPEG2000 encoder /decoderisillustratedin Fig.1 .In Fig.1 ,input of RDOfromthe arithmeticcoding…