The atmospheric environment—an introduction

The atmosphere is part of the environment with which the human organism is permanently confronted. Epidemiological research investigates the occurrence of effects on morbidity and mortality due to heat, cold, air pollution and changes in the weather. Concentrating on aspects of the environment relevant for medical questions, three major complexes of effects can be discriminated: the complex conditions of heat exchange, the direct biological effects of solar radiation, and air pollution. Biometeorological knowledge can serve to assess the atmospheric environment, and can also be of help in the field of preventive planning, to conserve and develop the climate as a natural resource with regard to man's health, well-being and performance.     

Geochemistry, soils and cardiovascular diseases

The hypothesis is presented that deficiencies or excesses in the content or availability of trace elements in rocks and soils, or in water flowing through them, may be a possible cause of certain chronic diseases, including cardiovascular ones. The geographic distribution of cardiovascular diseases is often associated with geochemical differences. This trend is particularly evident in the United States and in Europe, with higher rates for cardiovascular mortality in areas underlain by soils that are poor in most essential trace elements. Confirmation of this trend is found in connection with the degree of mineralization of local water supplies. Areas that are served by soft waters usually show higher rates of cardiovascular mortality and other forms of cardiovascular pathology, compared with the areas that are served by hard waters. Such a negative association between water hardness and cardiovascular pathology is evident in many countries, both industrialized and developing ones.     

Geochemistry,soils and cardiovascular diseases

Summary The hypothesis is presented that deficiencies or excesses in the content or availability of trace elements in rocks and soils, or in water flowing through them, may be a possible cause of certain chronic diseases, including cardiovascular ones. The geographic distribution of cardiovascular diseases is often associated with geochemical differences. This trend is particulalry evident in the United States and in Europe, with higher rates for cardiovascular mortality in areas underlain by soils that are poor in most essential trace elements. Confirmation of this trends is found in connection with the degree of mineralization of local water supplies. Areas that are served by soft waters usually show higher rates of cardiovascular mortality and other forms of cardiovascular pathology, compared with the areas that are served by hard waters. Such a negative association between water hardness and cardiovascular pathology is evident in many countries, both industrialized and developing ones.     

“Global warming” versus “climate change”: A replication on the association between political self-identification,question wording,and environmental beliefs

Climate change is one of the greatest threats to humanity and requires immediate action. Schuldt, Konrath, and Schwarz (2011) suggested that beliefs in environmental phenomena can be influenced by the terminology used to describe it: changing question wording from global warming to climate change resulted in a 6.3 percentage point increase in belief in environmental phenomena. This association was moderated by political self-identification, with Republicans being 16.2 percentage points more likely to believe in climate change than in global warming, with Democrats showing no difference. The potential for connotative meanings to shift over time and the sociopolitical changes since the original study, potential policy and environmental campaign implications, and an expansion of these findings to other countries, motivated an attempt to replicate this important finding. This pre-registered study repeated the original procedures in the United States of America and two other countries (United Kingdom and Australia; total N = 5,717). Although question wording no longer had a significant effect on beliefs in climate change/global warming, the association of political self-identification with beliefs in environmental phenomena replicated in all three countries, with Conservatives consistently believing less in climate change/global warming than Liberals. The potential impacts of temporal and methodological differences on the discrepancies between this study's and the original's findings are discussed.     

“Global warming” versus “climate change”: A replication on the association between political self-identification,question wording,and environmental beliefs

Climate change is one of the greatest threats to humanity and requires immediate action. Schuldt, Konrath, and Schwarz (2011) suggested that beliefs in environmental phenomena can be influenced by the terminology used to describe it: changing question wording from global warming to climate change resulted in a 6.3 percentage point increase in belief in environmental phenomena. This association was moderated by political self-identification, with Republicans being 16.2 percentage points more likely to believe in climate change than in global warming, with Democrats showing no difference. The potential for connotative meanings to shift over time and the sociopolitical changes since the original study, potential policy and environmental campaign implications, and an expansion of these findings to other countries, motivated an attempt to replicate this important finding. This pre-registered study repeated the original procedures in the United States of America and two other countries (United Kingdom and Australia; total N = 5,717). Although question wording no longer had a significant effect on beliefs in climate change/global warming, the association of political self-identification with beliefs in environmental phenomena replicated in all three countries, with Conservatives consistently believing less in climate change/global warming than Liberals. The potential impacts of temporal and methodological differences on the discrepancies between this study's and the original's findings are discussed.     

Short-run macroeconomic forecasting: The OECD performance

Forecasts for the seven major industrial countries, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States, are published on a regular basis in the OECD's Economic Outlook. This paper analyses the accuracy of the OECD annual forecasts of output and price changes and of the current balance in the balance of payments. As a reference basis, the forecasts are compared with those generated by a naive model, a random walk process. The measures of forecasting accuracy used are the mean-absolute error, the root-mean-square error, the median-absolute error, and Theil's inequality coefficient. The OECD forecasts of real GNP changes are significantly superior to those generated by the random walk process; however, the OECD price and current balance forecasts are not significantly more accurate than those obtained from the naive model. The OECD's forecasting performance has neither improved nor deteriorated over time.     

Forecasting market potential and market penetration of residential water heater load control programs

This paper presents a model which estimates market potential and forecasts market penetration for one demand-side management (DSM) programwater heater load controlin the service territory of Virginia Power Corporation, a large electric utility in the south-eastern United States. Water heater load control is a voluntary program where customers are paid a monthly incentive to allow the utility to shut off power to their electric water heaters during periods of peak demand. Reducing the level of peak demand through DSM programs is one way for utilities to avoid building new power plants. The current total energy (or demand) impact due to a load control program is the sum of the changes in energy (or demand) for all program participants. The projected energy and demand impact due to a load control program is the average change per participant multiplied by the number of participants or adopters of the program. While it is reasonably straightforward to measure the energy savings resulting from shutting off power to a water heater, the more difficult task for planning purposes is forecasting the number of customers who will actually join the program (i.e. the market penetration) for a given incentive. The customer decision process is divided into three stages: eligibility, awareness, and adoption. The responsiveness of market penetration to changes in advertising and incentive amounts is demonstrated. In addition, the impact of changing advertising and incentive amounts on the percentage of aware customers who adopt the program and on that of eligible customers who become aware of the program is estimated. This model can be used by utility planners and managers to forecast the market penetration of both new and existing load control programs. In addition, it can be employed to estimate the impact of various promotion and marketing schemes on both market potential and market penetration.     

Estimating the strength of expert judgement: The case of US mortality forecasts

The use of expert judgement is an important part of demographic forecasting. However, because judgement enters into the forecasting process in an informal way, it has been very difficult to assess its role relative to the analysis of past data. The use of targets in demographic forecasts permits us to embed the subjective forecasting process into a simple time-series regression model, in which expert judgement is incorporated via mixed estimation. The strength of expert judgement is denned, and estimated using the official forecasts of cause-specific mortality in the United States. We show that the weight given to judgement varies in an improbable manner by age. Overall, the weight given to judgement appears too high. An alternative approach to combining expert judgement and past data is suggested.     

The effect of global warming on mortality

There is a significant relationship between ambient temperature and mortality. In healthy individuals with no underlying co-morbid conditions, there is an efficient heat regulation system which enables the body to effectively handle thermal stress. However, in vulnerable groups, especially in elderly over the age of 65 years, infants and individuals with co-morbid cardiovascular and/or respiratory conditions, there is a deficiency in thermoregulation. When temperatures exceed a certain limit, being cold winter spells or heat waves, there is an increase in the number of deaths. In particular, it has been shown that at temperatures above 27 °C, the daily mortality rate increases more rapidly per degree rise compared to when it drops below 27 °C.This is especially of relevance with the current emergency of global warming. Besides the direct effect of temperature rises on human health, global warming will have a negative impact on primary producers and livestock, leading to malnutrition, which will in turn lead to a myriad of health related issues. This is further exacerbated by environmental pollution.Public health measures that countries should follow should include not only health-related information strategies aiming to reduce the exposure to heat for vulnerable individuals and the community, but improved urban planning and reduction in energy consumption, among many others. This will reduce the carbon footprint and help avert global warming, thus reducing mortality.     

中国大气污染防治技术综述

我国大气污染严重，污染废气排放总量处于较高水平。为控制和整治大气污染。“九五”以来，我国在污染排放控制技术等方面开展了大量研究开发工作，取得了许多新的成果，大气污染的防治也取得重要进展。本文综述了对我国大气造成污染的几种主要污染物及其治理措施。     

Focal brain hyperthemia. I. The cerebellar cortex

Summary Focal brain hyperthemic methodology has been described and data presented on the cerebellum which show that enhancement of electrical activity of cerebellar cortex occurs when this method is used with careful monitoring of temperature. The duration of electrically induced cerebral after-discharges is shortened when cerebellar warming reaches 39.5–42.0°C. Since these effects are repeatable over many hours, there appears to be little, if any, resultant damage. Such induced changes in the cerebrum resemble those previously reported in which electrical stimuli were applied to the cerebellar cortex.We sincerely thank the United States Public Health Service for financial support from grant No. NS11929.     

Why does the Chinese public accept evolution?

A substantial proportion of Chinese nationals seem to accept evolution, and the country is sometimes held up to show that the sorry state of evolution acceptance in the United States is not inevitable. Attempts to improve evolution acceptance generally focus on improving communication, curricular reform, and even identifying cognitive mechanisms that bias people against evolution. What is it that the Chinese scientific community did so well, and can it be generalized? This paper argues that evolution acceptance in China has a very specific history, one that other countries are very unlikely to emulate. We show that the interactions among science, education, mass media, social and political movements, and ideological arguments about evolution greatly influenced the Chinese public's understanding and acceptance of evolution. We find that it was not just formal education, but many more ideologically motivated methods of evolution exposure that contributed to the high rate of acceptance. But since the purpose of evolution dissemination has moved beyond merely teaching biology, the Chinese public persists with substantial misunderstandings of the theory. Thus, bottom line percentage of acceptance figures can be misleading; the details and the history really matter.     

世界科学活动中心转移的历史初探

近代世界科学活动中心经历了从意大利→英国→法国→德国→美国的转移，为什么这些国家在一定时期可以成为世界科学中心?一般而言，这个国家或地区由于战争或革命得到特殊的条件，人们的思想得到前所未有的解放，如意大利的文艺复兴运动、法国的启蒙运动，然后，由于资产阶级的需要，大规模的引进科学技术和智力，充分利用先进地区和国家的科技成果推动这个地区科学技术和生产力的飞速发展，从而成为世界科学活动中心。     

环渤海地区环境污染问题演化及其对策

环渤海地区是我国经济增长的第三极。随着该地区工农业生产的迅速发展和新型产业的崛起,其环境污染问题日益突出。本文从环渤海地区水体污染、大气污染和土壤环境污染三个角度,对该地区环境污染问题的演化进行了宏观意义上的分析和预测,并据此提出了解决该地区环境污染问题的对策措施。     

国内外运载火箭POGO抑制技术研究进展

本文描述了美国、前苏联、欧洲、日本和中国等国内外运载火箭跷振（POGO）抑制技术研究的发展历程及进展,并总结出国内外火箭POGO抑制技术的特点,以及在小POGO和气蚀动力学等方面带来的启示.美国的POGO抑制技术研究经历了大力神2——土星V——航天飞机——具体问题具体分析等4个阶段的发展历程,中国的POGO抑制技术研究也类似经历了331工程——载人航天工程——新一代火箭——40 Hz问题等4个阶段.由此可知,POGO振动抑制呈现出＂事前理论预示难度大、事后危害后果严重、解决过程漫长曲折＂的特点,必须在重大航天工程实施前开展研究.     

世界引力波探测发展

引力波是广义相对论的重要推论之一。引力波探测将有可能打开又一扇天文观测的窗口，上世纪至今，世界少数发达国家倾注大量的人力，物力，财力于引力波的实验探测。改进的共振棒探测器已组成一个棒天线阵在运行中。在室内模型激光干涉引力波探测器的基础上，几个野外大型激光干涉引力波探测器正在紧张地建设中，其中美国的LIGO项目进展引人瞩目，太空引力波探测器的设想已被付诸实施。     

A novel hybrid fine particulate matter (PM2.5) forecasting and its further application system: Case studies in China

Air pollution has received more attention from many countries and scientists due to its high threat to human health. However, air pollution prediction remains a challenging task because of its nonstationarity, randomness, and nonlinearity. In this research, a novel hybrid system is successfully developed for PM_2.5 concentration prediction and its application in health effects and economic loss assessment. First, an efficient data mining method is adopted to capture and extract the primary characteristic of PM_2.5 dataset and alleviate the noises' adverse effects. Second, Harris hawks optimization algorithm is introduced to tune the extreme learning machine model with high prediction accuracy, then the optimized extreme learning machine can be established to obtain the forecasting values of PM_2.5 series. Next, PM_2.5-related health effects and economic costs was estimated based on the predicted PM_2.5 values, the related health effects, and environmental value assessment methods. Several experiments are designed using three daily PM_2.5 datasets from Beijing, Tianjin, and Shijiazhuang. Lastly, the corresponding experimental results showed that this proposed system can not only provide early warning information for environmental management, assist in the formulation of effective measures to reduce air pollutant emissions, and prevent health problems but also help for further research and application in different fields, such as health issues due to PM_2.5 pollutant.     

中国城市化进程中的环境抗争

城市化是经济社会发展的必然选择。然而,随着中国城市化飞速发展,也产生了城市水、大气、固体废弃物和噪声污染等一系列生态环境问题。同时,随着环境意识的增强,人们对居住环境质量的要求不断提高,致使城市化过程中环境抗争事件不断涌现。本文回顾了已有研究文献,以国外环境抗争、国内农村环境抗争与城市环境抗争作对比,突出城市环境抗争的特点;从抗争的情感基础、精英力量、弱组织化和互动过程四个方面对城市的环境抗争进行建构;从抗争力量、制度化因素、发展观念和社会力量四个方面分析当前环境抗争所面临的一系列困境。培育公民社会、更新地方政府的发展观念、加强社会科学与自然科学和管理科学之间的交叉研究等是应对当前困境最根本的出路。     

Occurrence of DDT and BHC residues in human milk in India

Summary Samples of human milk from Punjab, India have shown the presence of DDT and BHC residues in amounts greater than those reported from most of the other countries.This research has been financed in part by a grant made by the United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service authorized by Public Law 480.     

海洋酸化的影响及主要国家研究部署

全球变暖带来的海洋酸化问题对海洋环境造成的影响已经逐渐引起国际科学界的重视。全球海洋的酸化状况已经成为既成事实,对珊瑚礁、甲壳类动物甚至整个海洋生态系统都造成了不利影响。美国、欧洲以及日本等国都在重要海洋研究计划中做了相关部署,旨在深入了解海洋酸化的机理、可能造成的影响以及相关应对措施。