Impact of climate change on marine pelagic phenology and trophic mismatch

Phenology, the study of annually recurring life cycle events such as the timing of migrations and flowering, can provide particularly sensitive indicators of climate change. Changes in phenology may be important to ecosystem function because the level of response to climate change may vary across functional groups and multiple trophic levels. The decoupling of phenological relationships will have important ramifications for trophic interactions, altering food-web structures and leading to eventual ecosystem-level changes. Temperate marine environments may be particularly vulnerable to these changes because the recruitment success of higher trophic levels is highly dependent on synchronization with pulsed planktonic production. Using long-term data of 66 plankton taxa during the period from 1958 to 2002, we investigated whether climate warming signals are emergent across all trophic levels and functional groups within an ecological community. Here we show that not only is the marine pelagic community responding to climate changes, but also that the level of response differs throughout the community and the seasonal cycle, leading to a mismatch between trophic levels and functional groups.     

生态文明建设：在适应气候变化中前行

适应气候变化的基本内涵是通过不同手段化解气候风险,从而顺应气候变化的大趋势。从历史的角度看,人类文明的发展伴随着适应气候的变化。从现实的角度看,把＂减缓气候变化＂与＂适应气候变化＂相结合已成为人类应对气候变化的重要策略。适应气候变化与生态文明建设具有内在的联系,在适应气候变化中加强生态文明建设,体现了生态建设尊重自然、顺应自然和保护自然的基本内涵。合理规范人的行为成为适应气候变化,加强生态文明建设的必然要求,同时也体现了生态文明建设中的公平性和生态道德,也为生态文明建设提供了可持续的发展动力。     

基于文献数据比较研究东北针阔混交林群落叶绿体遗传多样性

第四纪气候变化对植物群落产生深远影响,然而植物群落如何响应气候变化,群落内不同物种是否具有一致的响应,对于这些问题仍缺乏更系统和完整的答案．中国东北针阔混交林位于凉温带,对气候变化十分敏感,是研究物种对第四纪气候变化响应的理想区域．本研究利用文献检索调查东北针阔混交林物种谱系地理研究现状,并基于文献数据分析东北针阔混交林群落及其周边群落的遗传多样性空间分布情况．结果发现,2020年前,仅有23篇文章对27个东北针阔混交林群落物种进行谱系地理研究．无论是群落水平还是物种水平,均未发现遗传多样性的纬度梯度格局．现有的数据表明,长白山西部和大兴安岭北部地区具有较高的群落遗传多样性．这些结果表明冰期“原位避难”可能是东北针阔混交林群落物种的普遍模式,但是具体的冰期避难所位置可能存在物种差异．由于文献数据是独立而分散的谱系地理研究,存在取样种群和分子标记以及覆盖度的差异,从而导致基于文献分析的群落水平遗传多样性格局结论仍存在不确定性．未来应开展以群落遗传多样性和群落形成历史问题为导向的系统设计,以期系统性地回答群落如何响应第四纪气候变化．      

从预防到适应：气候变化与民族地区生态建设的战略选择

对气候变化及生态风险的全面认识和多角度分析，构成了对民族地区气候变化及其生态建设的理论认识基础。气候变化是民族地区生态发展的双刃剑,民族地区生态建设的基本理念是在适应气候变化的基础上，积极寻找和创造条件，走出一条生态建设和社会发展的双赢之路。     

Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases

The range of possibilities for future climate evolution needs to be taken into account when planning climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This requires ensembles of multi-decadal simulations to assess both chaotic climate variability and model response uncertainty. Statistical estimates of model response uncertainty, based on observations of recent climate change, admit climate sensitivities--defined as the equilibrium response of global mean temperature to doubling levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide--substantially greater than 5 K. But such strong responses are not used in ranges for future climate change because they have not been seen in general circulation models. Here we present results from the 'climateprediction.net' experiment, the first multi-thousand-member grand ensemble of simulations using a general circulation model and thereby explicitly resolving regional details. We find model versions as realistic as other state-of-the-art climate models but with climate sensitivities ranging from less than 2 K to more than 11 K. Models with such extreme sensitivities are critical for the study of the full range of possible responses of the climate system to rising greenhouse gas levels, and for assessing the risks associated with specific targets for stabilizing these levels.     

进入21世纪的气候变化科学--气候变化的事实、影响与对策

近百年来，地球气候正经历一次以全球变暖为主要特征的显著变化，我国的气候变化趋势与全球气候变化的总趋势基本一致。近50年的气候变暖主要是人类使用化石燃料排放的大量二氧化碳等温室气体的增温效应造成的。现有的预测表明，未来50-100年全球和我国的气候将继续向变暖的方向发展。国际上，目前《联合国气候变化框架公约》和《京都议定书》正在就如何减缓这种气候变暖的趋势和控制温室气体排放进行谈判。本文依据IPCC第三次评估报告与国内外最新的研究成果，说明气候变化的事实与未来的可能变化，阐述冰冻圈对气候变化的响应，进而说明气候变化对生态系统和社会经济的影响，分析气候变化给我国带来的挑战和机遇并提出对策建议。     

Global metabolic impacts of recent climate warming

Documented shifts in geographical ranges, seasonal phenology, community interactions, genetics and extinctions have been attributed to recent global warming. Many such biotic shifts have been detected at mid- to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere-a latitudinal pattern that is expected because warming is fastest in these regions. In contrast, shifts in tropical regions are expected to be less marked because warming is less pronounced there. However, biotic impacts of warming are mediated through physiology, and metabolic rate, which is a fundamental measure of physiological activity and ecological impact, increases exponentially rather than linearly with temperature in ectotherms. Therefore, tropical ectotherms (with warm baseline temperatures) should experience larger absolute shifts in metabolic rate than the magnitude of tropical temperature change itself would suggest, but the impact of climate warming on metabolic rate has never been quantified on a global scale. Here we show that estimated changes in terrestrial metabolic rates in the tropics are large, are equivalent in magnitude to those in the north temperate-zone regions, and are in fact far greater than those in the Arctic, even though tropical temperature change has been relatively small. Because of temperature's nonlinear effects on metabolism, tropical organisms, which constitute much of Earth's biodiversity, should be profoundly affected by recent and projected climate warming.     

气候变化对雄安新区城市建设的影响及应对策略

 利用全国近50年气象资料（雄安1974年以来的完整资料）,研究分析了全国尤其是雄安近几十年来的气候变化和气候生态特征。雄安属暖温带半湿润季风气候,气候背景与北京、天津类似。近几十年来,气温、降水等气象要素的变化趋势明显但幅度较弱,年平均气温变化趋势为平均每10年升高0.2℃,高温日数平均每10年增加0.8 d,暴雨日数呈减少趋势,上述要素的变化幅度虽低于全国及周边城市,但均显示出了气候变化对雄安的影响,且极端天气事件也呈增加的趋势,如强降雨重现期缩短,极端强降雨量明显增大等,这与IPCC（联合国气候变化政府间专门委员会）的报告和中国大部地区趋势一致。结合灾害历史资料分析和气候模式预测,指出在全球气候变暖背景下,雄安新区在发展中将面临气候变化背景下增加的气象灾害和气候风险,进而给出了相关城市建设的建议。     

Application of artificial neural networks in global climate change and ecological research: An overview

Fields that employ artificial neural networks (ANNs) have developed and expanded continuously in recent years with the ongoing development of computer technology and artificial intelligence. ANN has been adopted widely and put into practice by researchers in light of increasing concerns over ecological issues such as global warming, frequent El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, and atmospheric circulation anomalies. Limitations exist and there is a potential risk for misuse in that ANN model parameters require typically higher overall sensitivity, and the chosen network structure is generally more dependent upon individual experience. ANNs, however, are relatively accurate when used for short-term predictions; despite global climate change research favoring the effects of interactions as the basis of study and the preference for long-term experimental research. ANNs remain a better choice than many traditional methods when dealing with nonlinear problems, and possesses great potential for the study of global climate change and ecological issues. ANNs can resolve problems that other methods cannot. This is especially true for situations in which measurements are difficult to conduct or when only incomplete data are available. It is anticipated that ANNs will be widely adopted and then further developed for global climate change and ecological research.     

Coherent ecological dynamics induced by large-scale disturbance

Aggregate community-level response to disturbance is a principle concern in ecology because post-disturbance dynamics are integral to the ability of ecosystems to maintain function in an uncertain world. Community-level responses to disturbance can be arrayed along a spectrum ranging from synchronous oscillations where all species rise and fall together, to compensatory dynamics where total biomass remains relatively constant despite fluctuations in the densities of individual species. An important recent insight is that patterns of synchrony and compensation can vary with the timescale of analysis and that spectral time series methods can enable detection of coherent dynamics that would otherwise be obscured by opposing patterns occurring at different scales. Here I show that application of wavelet analysis to experimentally manipulated plankton communities reveals strong synchrony after disturbance. The result is paradoxical because it is well established that these communities contain both disturbance-sensitive and disturbance-tolerant species leading to compensation within functional groups. Theory predicts that compensatory substitution of functionally equivalent species should stabilize ecological communities, yet I found at the whole-community level a large increase in seasonal biomass variation. Resolution of the paradox hinges on patterns of seasonality among species. The compensatory shift in community composition after disturbance resulted in a loss of cold-season dominants, which before disturbance had served to stabilize biomass throughout the year. Species dominating the disturbed community peaked coherently during the warm season, explaining the observed synchrony and increase in seasonal biomass variation. These results suggest that theory relating compensatory dynamics to ecological stability needs to consider not only complementarity in species responses to environmental change, but also seasonal complementarity among disturbance-tolerant and disturbance-sensitive species.     

A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems

Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.     

Ecological and evolutionary processes at expanding range margins

Many animals are regarded as relatively sedentary and specialized in marginal parts of their geographical distributions. They are expected to be slow at colonizing new habitats. Despite this, the cool margins of many species' distributions have expanded rapidly in association with recent climate warming. We examined four insect species that have expanded their geographical ranges in Britain over the past 20 years. Here we report that two butterfly species have increased the variety of habitat types that they can colonize, and that two bush cricket species show increased fractions of longer-winged (dispersive) individuals in recently founded populations. Both ecological and evolutionary processes are probably responsible for these changes. Increased habitat breadth and dispersal tendencies have resulted in about 3- to 15-fold increases in expansion rates, allowing these insects to cross habitat disjunctions that would have represented major or complete barriers to dispersal before the expansions started. The emergence of dispersive phenotypes will increase the speed at which species invade new environments, and probably underlies the responses of many species to both past and future climate change.     

气候变化对黄河流域的影响及应对措施

 分析了全球气候变化对黄河流域区域气候、水资源量、生态格局、农业牧业生产、地质灾害、文物保护的影响,阐述了应对研究的主要进展及存在的主要问题,探讨了气候变化对黄河流域影响的未来趋势,提出了进一步研究工作的建议：即统筹建设黄河流域气象、水文、环境、地质灾害观测和预报预警系统;厘清多因素影响下的流域水资源时空过程,提升流域水资源效能;调整坡耕地和生态用地,加强流域水源涵养能力;加强植物生理生态适应性研究,优化流域农业和草业布局;修订文化遗产赋存环境区划,进行预防性保护技术研发;加强流域黄土滑坡加固新材料和生态修复协同技术研究。     

苔藓植物对大气生态环境作用的研究进展

苔藓植物是一类形体微小、结构简单的高等植物,其作用一直不为人们所重视,但是随着全球生态环境问题的日益严重及相关研究的深入,人类越来越意识到苔藓植物在全球生态环境系统中的重要作用。针对目前全球大气生态环境科学研究中的一些热点问题,本文综述了苔藓植物在全球气候变迁、C汇、N沉降、酸雨等生态功能方面的最新研究进展,以期促进国内外学者对苔藓植物的大气生态环境作用开展更加广泛地研究。     

青藏高原生态系统发育与生物多样性

 青藏高原是全球海拔最高的独特地域单元,对中国乃至北半球生态安全具有重要意义。本文通过分析青藏高原的地貌形成过程和气候条件,对青藏高原的生态系统与生物多样性进行基本判断,进而提出在气候变化背景下,建立涵盖青藏高原全境的生态监测体系、构建天地一体化监测体系和信息平台、生态建设项目的监测与评估3项建议,以整体提高青藏高原地区生态系统和生物多样性应对全球气候变化的能力。     

基于气候灾害影响下的韧性社区评价及建设研究进展

 社区作为城市系统中的主要组成单元,在提高城市韧性表现方面,扮演着十分重要的角色。从韧性概念在社区维度的特殊性和表达机制、韧性评价相关政策与方法、社区韧性建设实践等角度,梳理了国内外社区韧性研究进展,总结了社区气候灾害韧性的关键科学问题,提出了中国建设韧性社区的政策建议。     

生态韧性视角下的城市水环境导向的城市设计策略

 暴雨后城市中出现了大量积水导致其系统功能瘫痪,提高城市水系统的生态韧性对巩固城市系统的稳定性具有重要作用。采用文献研究、综合分析等方法,总结了国内外城市韧性的研究进展以及在水生态管理上的实践经验,提出了现有韧性研究的不足;在生态韧性的视角下,构建了城市水生态韧性评价体系和城市水环境导向的城市设计技术体系;提出了韧性城市设计策略,探索了生态韧性视角下城市水环境导向的城市设计实现途径。     

Warming experiments underpredict plant phenological responses to climate change

Warming experiments are increasingly relied on to estimate plant responses to global climate change. For experiments to provide meaningful predictions of future responses, they should reflect the empirical record of responses to temperature variability and recent warming, including advances in the timing of flowering and leafing. We compared phenology (the timing of recurring life history events) in observational studies and warming experiments spanning four continents and 1,634 plant species using a common measure of temperature sensitivity (change in days per degree Celsius). We show that warming experiments underpredict advances in the timing of flowering and leafing by 8.5-fold and 4.0-fold, respectively, compared with long-term observations. For species that were common to both study types, the experimental results did not match the observational data in sign or magnitude. The observational data also showed that species that flower earliest in the spring have the highest temperature sensitivities, but this trend was not reflected in the experimental data. These significant mismatches seem to be unrelated to the study length or to the degree of manipulated warming in experiments. The discrepancy between experiments and observations, however, could arise from complex interactions among multiple drivers in the observational data, or it could arise from remediable artefacts in the experiments that result in lower irradiance and drier soils, thus dampening the phenological responses to manipulated warming. Our results introduce uncertainty into ecosystem models that are informed solely by experiments and suggest that responses to climate change that are predicted using such models should be re-evaluated.     

微生物相互作用研究进展：从观察到预测?

地球上的微生物有着极高的丰富度和多样性.它们的生命活动和相互作用对维持生态系统稳定性起到关键作用;生存在宿主体内的微生物对其宿主的健康有重要影响.第二代测序技术的发展使得科学家获得了大量的关于微生物群落和功能基因组成的数据;而微生物群落和生态系统生态学的重点,正在从获得观测数据转变到理解微生物相互作用过程,并预测群落结构和功能的动态变化.近年来发展了很多针对第二代测序数据的算法和数学模型,以推测微生物种间相互作用网络,但这种自上而下的研究仍存在局限性.自下而上的实验研究可以对微生物种间作用进行直接验证,并帮助我们理解更高层次上的生态学模式和过程.与此同时,基于数学分析或模拟的理论研究展示了微生物相互作用的动态及其对群落动态和功能的影响.今后的研究应该结合观测数据、实验验证、理论模型多种研究方法,增进我们对微生物种间相互作用的理解并做出预测,以应对全球气候变化、传染病暴发、抗生素抗性进化等诸多挑战.     

苔藓植物对气候变化的响应研究进展

由于具有特殊的形态和生理特征,苔藓植物对环境污染和气候变化的反应十分敏感。本文从生态、生理和生长特征等方面综述了苔藓植物对气候变化的响应特征,以期促进苔藓植物对气候变化的响应研究。