On the role of the Agulhas system in ocean circulation and climate

The Atlantic Ocean receives warm, saline water from the Indo-Pacific Ocean through Agulhas leakage around the southern tip of Africa. Recent findings suggest that Agulhas leakage is a crucial component of the climate system and that ongoing increases in leakage under anthropogenic warming could strengthen the Atlantic overturning circulation at a time when warming and accelerated meltwater input in the North Atlantic is predicted to weaken it. Yet in comparison with processes in the North Atlantic, the overall Agulhas system is largely overlooked as a potential climate trigger or feedback mechanism. Detailed modelling experiments--backed by palaeoceanographic and sustained modern observations--are required to establish firmly the role of the Agulhas system in a warming climate.     

Links between salinity variation in the Caribbean and North Atlantic thermohaline circulation

Variations in the strength of the North Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation have been linked to rapid climate changes during the last glacial cycle through oscillations in North Atlantic Deep Water formation and northward oceanic heat flux. The strength of the thermohaline circulation depends on the supply of warm, salty water to the North Atlantic, which, after losing heat to the atmosphere, produces the dense water masses that sink to great depths and circulate back south. Here we analyse two Caribbean Sea sediment cores, combining Mg/Ca palaeothermometry with measurements of oxygen isotopes in foraminiferal calcite in order to reconstruct tropical Atlantic surface salinity during the last glacial cycle. We find that Caribbean salinity oscillated between saltier conditions during the cold oxygen isotope stages 2, 4 and 6, and lower salinities during the warm stages 3 and 5, covarying with the strength of North Atlantic Deep Water formation. At the initiation of the B?lling/Aller?d warm interval, Caribbean surface salinity decreased abruptly, suggesting that the advection of salty tropical waters into the North Atlantic amplified thermohaline circulation and contributed to high-latitude warming.     

Southern Ocean origin for the resumption of Atlantic thermohaline circulation during deglaciation

During the two most recent deglaciations, the Southern Hemisphere warmed before Greenland. At the same time, the northern Atlantic Ocean was exposed to meltwater discharge, which is generally assumed to reduce the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water. Yet during deglaciation, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation became more vigorous, in the transition from a weak glacial to a strong interglacial mode. Here we use a three-dimensional ocean circulation model to investigate the impact of Southern Ocean warming and the associated sea-ice retreat on the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. We find that a gradual warming in the Southern Ocean during deglaciation induces an abrupt resumption of the interglacial mode of the thermohaline circulation, triggered by increased mass transport into the Atlantic Ocean via the warm (Indian Ocean) and cold (Pacific Ocean) water route. This effect prevails over the influence of meltwater discharge, which would oppose a strengthening of the thermohaline circulation. A Southern Ocean trigger for the transition into an interglacial mode of circulation provides a consistent picture of Southern and Northern hemispheric climate change at times of deglaciation, in agreement with the available proxy records.     

Model evidence for climatic impact of thermohaline circulation on China at the century scale

Based on transient simulation of the last deglaciation (significant global warming period) using a fully coupled model and sensitivity experiment, we show explicitly how the thermohaline circulation (THC) affects the climate of China, especially during periods of abrupt climate change. The simulated evolution of the Chinese climate was consistent with the paleoclimate record during the last deglaciation. For example, the whole Chinese region warmed significantly during the Bølling-Allerød warming event (BA). When the magnitude of the THC was reduced in the sensitivity experiment during BA, warming of the Chinese region was greatly affected. Our work shows that in addition to orbital forcing and greenhouse gases, the THC is an important factor influencing climate change in China at the century scale.     

An abrupt climate event in a coupled ocean-atmosphere simulation without external forcing

Temperature reconstructions from the North Atlantic region indicate frequent abrupt and severe climate fluctuations during the last glacial and Holocene periods. The driving forces for these events are unclear and coupled atmosphere-ocean models of global circulation have only simulated such events by inserting large amounts of fresh water into the northern North Atlantic Ocean. Here we report a drastic cooling event in a 15,000-yr simulation of global circulation with present-day climate conditions without the use of such external forcing. In our simulation, the annual average surface temperature near southern Greenland spontaneously fell 6-10 standard deviations below its mean value for a period of 30-40 yr. The event was triggered by a persistent northwesterly wind that transported large amounts of buoyant cold and fresh water into the northern North Atlantic Ocean. Oceanic convection shut down in response to this flow, concentrating the entire cooling of the northern North Atlantic by the colder atmosphere in the uppermost ocean layer. Given the similarity between our simulation and observed records of rapid cooling events, our results indicate that internal atmospheric variability alone could have generated the extreme climate disruptions in this region.     

A topographically forced asymmetry in the martian circulation and climate

Large seasonal and hemispheric asymmetries in the martian climate system are generally ascribed to variations in solar heating associated with orbital eccentricity. As the orbital elements slowly change (over a period of >104 years), characteristics of the climate such as dustiness and the vigour of atmospheric circulation are thought to vary, as should asymmetries in the climate (for example, the deposition of water ice at the northern versus the southern pole). Such orbitally driven climate change might be responsible for the observed layering in Mars' polar deposits by modulating deposition of dust and water ice. Most current theories assume that climate asymmetries completely reverse as the angular distance between equinox and perihelion changes by 180 degrees. Here we describe a major climate mechanism that will not precess in this way. We show that Mars' global north-south elevation difference forces a dominant southern summer Hadley circulation that is independent of perihelion timing. The Hadley circulation, a tropical overturning cell responsible for trade winds, largely controls interhemispheric transport of water and the bulk dustiness of the atmosphere. The topography therefore imprints a strong handedness on climate, with water ice and the active formation of polar layered deposits more likely in the north.     

Quantifying the uncertainty in forecasts of anthropogenic climate change

Forecasts of climate change are inevitably uncertain. It is therefore essential to quantify the risk of significant departures from the predicted response to a given emission scenario. Previous analyses of this risk have been based either on expert opinion, perturbation analysis of simplified climate models or the comparison of predictions from general circulation models. Recent observed changes that appear to be attributable to human influence provide a powerful constraint on the uncertainties in multi-decadal forecasts. Here we assess the range of warming rates over the coming 50 years that are consistent with the observed near-surface temperature record as well as with the overall patterns of response predicted by several general circulation models. We expect global mean temperatures in the decade 2036-46 to be 1-2.5 K warmer than in pre-industrial times under a 'business as usual' emission scenario. This range is relatively robust to errors in the models' climate sensitivity, rate of oceanic heat uptake or global response to sulphate aerosols as long as these errors are persistent over time. Substantial changes in the current balance of greenhouse warming and sulphate aerosol cooling would, however, increase the uncertainty. Unlike 50-year warming rates, the final equilibrium warming after the atmospheric composition stabilizes remains very uncertain, despite the evidence provided by the emerging signal.     

中国公众对气候变化的认知?

应对气候变化是我国发展战略,也是国际社会关注的热点科学问题.巴黎协议是人类应对气候变化的新起点,但如何有效引导公众积极参与应对气候变化,研究公众对气候变化认知是很必要的.本文对比分析多家机构针对我国公众关于气候变化认知的调查结果后发现:我国公众对于气候变化事实的了解较清晰,关注度较高,对政府的信任度、依赖度较高,个人应对气候变化的意愿高,但对于气候变化到底是什么只有模糊认识,对气候变化原因和科学机制认识不足.基于以上分析,我们认为未来我国气候变化公众认知研究应着重两方面:一是组织多学科的较大规模的公众气候变化认知综合调查,以获取更充分更全面的数据;二是构建高效的气候变化科学知识传播体系,切实解决气候变化科学认知和公众认知的一致性.     

Ocean circulation and climate during the past 120,000 years

Oceans cover more than two-thirds of our blue planet. The waters move in a global circulation system, driven by subtle density differences and transporting huge amounts of heat. Ocean circulation is thus an active and highly nonlinear player in the global climate game. Increasingly clear evidence implicates ocean circulation in abrupt and dramatic climate shifts, such as sudden temperature changes in Greenland on the order of 5-10 degrees C and massive surges of icebergs into the North Atlantic Ocean --events that have occurred repeatedly during the last glacial cycle.     

The methodology of quantitative assess economic output of climate change

A method is introduced in this paper to study the effect of future climatic change on the economy. The researchers determine the economic output of climate change from historical data, and provide a method to quantitatively predict economic output of climate change by an economic-climatic model. A historical reciprocating examination is used to analyze output data for various crops in eight agricultural areas in China and meteorological data from 160 observatories in China from 1980 to 2000. The results show that the methods used are reasonable to a certain extent and good in application.     

Effects of climate change on biodiversity

1 Rise of studies on climate change＇s effects on biodiversity
Until the 1980s, climate change and biodiversity were studied as two independent disciplines for more than a century. In 1992, the Ecological Society of America＇s annual report named climate change, biodiversity, and the sustainable ecological system as the three major global environmental issues of the twenty-first century [1].