On the usefulness of macroeconomic forecasts as inputs to forecasting models

A forecasting model for y_t based on its relationship to exogenous variables (e.g. x?_t) must use x?_t, the forecast of x?_t. An example is given where commercially available x?_t's are sufficiently inaccurate that a univariate model for y_t appears preferable. For a variety of types of models inclusion of an exogenous variable x?_t is shown to worsen the y_t forecasts whenever x?_t must itself be forecast by x?_t and MSE (x?_t) > Var (x?_t). Tests with forecasts from a variety of sources indicate that, with a few notable exceptions, MSE (x?_t) > Var (x?_t) is common for macroeconomic forecasts more than a quarter or two ahead. Thus, either:

• (a) available medium range forecasts for many macroeconomic variables (e.g. the GNP growth rate) are not an improvement over the sample mean (so that such variables are not useful explanatory variables in forecasting models), and/or
• (b) the suboptimization involved in directly replacing x?_t by x?_t is a luxury that we cannot afford.

     

The superoxide-generating NADPH oxidase: structural aspects and activation mechanism

Flavocytochrome b ₅₅₈ is the catalytic core of the respiratory-burst oxidase, an enzyme complex that catalyzes the NADPH-dependent reduction of O₂ into the superoxide anion O₂ ^- in phagocytic cells. Flavocytochrome b ₅₅₈ is anchored in the plasma membrane. It is a heterodimer that consists of a large glycoprotein gp91phox (phox for phagocyte oxidase) (β subunit) and a small protein p22phox (α subunit). The other components of the respiratory-burst oxidase are water-soluble proteins of cytosolic origin, namely p67phox, p47phox, p40phox and Rac. Upon cell stimulation, they assemble with the membrane-bound flavocytochrome b ₅₅₈ which becomes activated and generates O₂ ^-. A defect in any of the genes encoding gp91phox, p22phox, p67phox or p47phox results in chronic granulomatous disease, a genetic disorder characterized by severe and recurrent infections, illustrating the role of O₂ ^- and the derived metabolites H₂O₂ and HOCl in host defense against invading microorganisms. The electron carriers, FAD and hemes b, and the binding site for NADPH are confined to the gp91phox subunit of flavocytochrome b ₅₅₈ . The p22phox subunit serves as a docking site for the cytosolic phox proteins. This review provides an overview of current knowledge on the structural organization of the O₂ ^--generating flavocytochrome b ₅₅₈ , its kinetics, its mechanism of activation and the regulation of its biosynthesis. Homologues of gp91phox, called Nox and Duox, are present in a large variety of non-phagocytic cells. They exhibit modest O₂ ^--generating oxidase activity, and some act as proton channels. Their role in various aspects of signal transduction is currently under investigation and is briefly discussed. Received 28 May 2002; received after revision 20 June 2002; accepted 24 June 2002     

Semiparametric forecast intervals

Consider forecasting the economic variable Y_t+h with predictors X _t, where h is the forecast horizon. This paper introduces a semiparametric method that generates forecast intervals of Y_t+h| X _t from point forecast models. First, the point forecast model is estimated, thereby taking advantage of its predictive power. Then, nonparametric estimation of the conditional distribution function (CDF) of the forecast error conditional on X _t builds the rest of the forecast distribution around the point forecast, from which symmetric and minimum‐length forecast intervals for Y_t+h| X _t can be constructed. Under mild regularity conditions, asymptotic analysis shows that (1) regardless of the quality of the point forecast model (i.e., it may be misspecified), forecast quantiles are consistent and asymptotically normal; (2) minimum length forecast intervals are consistent. Proposals for bandwidth selection and dimension reduction are made. Three sets of simulations show that for reasonable point forecast models the method has significant advantages over two existing approaches to interval forecasting: one that requires the point forecast model to be correctly specified, and one that is based on fully nonparametric CDF estimate of Y_t+h| X _t. An application to exchange rate forecasting is presented. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simple integrated rate equations for reversible bimolecular reactions

Summary If the complete rate equations for reversible, one-step, bimolecular reactions are written withP _e–P as the concentration variable (whereP _e is the equilibrium, andP is the instantaneous, product concentration), the 3 possible stoichiometries can be reduced to a single straightforward differential equation. This can be solved very economically. For each stoichiometry, weret is time,k ₁ is the forward rate constant,K _e is the equilibrium constant, and P isP–P _o. The termsP _c–P _o andD+P _c–P _o are the physically possible and physically impossible roots of the quadratic equation forP _e–P _o in terms of the initial concentrations andK _c.D is the discriminant in this equation. All 3 quantities can be calculated if the equilibrium constant is known. A plot oft against ln{[1–P/(D+P _c–P _o)]/[1–P/(P _c–P _o)]} should be a straight line for any second order reaction. For each stoichiometry,P _c–P _o approachesA _o, the initial concentration of the first reactant, as the equilibrium constant increases. When a second reactant is present,D+P _e–P _o approachesB _o. The limiting equation is then that of an irreversible bimolecular reaction. For AP+Q,D approaches –K _e as the equilibrium constant becomes large, and the value of the second logarithmic term in the integrated equation approaches zero. The limiting equation is that of an irreversible, unimolecular reaction.Acknowledgments. I thank Dr. Athel Cornish-Bowden for many helpful discussions. This work was partially supported by a grant from Utah State University.     

Sonnenflecken und ihre terrestrischen Wirkungen

Summary After a discussion of the 11-year solar-cycle as regarded from the standpoint of the eruption-hypothesis, which offers a possibility to predict the solar activity for several years and after a review of the magnetic properties of the sun and the sunspots, the paper deals with the new theories of the spots and the solar-cycle as suggested byAlfvén andWalén.The terrestrial effects of the phenomena associated with the solar cycle are classified into 4 groups: effects produced by a) a wave radiationW _k emitted continuously by the sun, b) a wave radiationW _e emitted from the chromospheric eruptions, c) a particle radiationP _k emitted by the so-called M-regions, and d) a particle radiationP _e ejected from the eruptions. The connection between the solar eruptions and the radiationsP _e ,W _e is a well established fact; on the other hand the radiationsW _k ,P _k could be connected by the author with the solar corona and the stationary solar prominences respectively.To account for the intensity of theW _k -radiation a temperature of the solar corona of one million degree is required in agreement with the observed temperature. The heating of the corona occurs in the electric field around an increasing sunspot. As in the corona the mean free path amounts to several kilometers, particles may be accelerated up to 1000 eV, so far the conditionh=0 is fulfilled. Generally speaking acceleration is possible only in such regions whereh andh are not perpendicular to each other.     

Robust estimation of conditional variance of time series using density power divergences

Suppose Z _t is the square of a time series Y _t whose conditional mean is zero. We do not specify a model for Y _t , but assume that there exists a p ×1 parameter vector Φ such that the conditional distribution of Z _t | Z _{t ?1} is the same as that of , where Z _{t ?1}=(Z _{t ?1},…,Z _{t ?p} )^T for some lag p ?1. Consequently, the conditional variance of Y _t is some function of . To estimate Φ , we propose a robust estimation methodology based on density power divergences (DPD) indexed by a tuning parameter α ∈[0,1], which yields a continuum of estimators, , where α controls the trade‐off between robustness and efficiency of the DPD estimators. For each α , is shown to be strongly consistent. We develop data‐dependent criteria for the selection of optimal α and lag p in practice. We illustrate the usefulness of our DPD methodology via simulation studies for ARCH‐type models, where the errors are drawn from a gross‐error contamination model and the conditional variance is a linear and/or nonlinear function of . Furthermore, we analyze the Chicago Board Options Exchange Dow Jones volatility index data and show that our DPD approach yields viable models for the conditional variance, which are as good as, or superior to, ARCH/GARCH models and two other divergence‐based models in terms of in‐sample and out‐of‐sample forecasts.     

Zur Frage der Mesonenmassen

Summary The measurement of meson masses in the cosmic radiation with a slowly expanding wilson chambre indicates mesons of different masses. There are at least two different masses, one between 100m ₀ and 200m ₀, and the other exceeding 200m ₀.     

Highly irritant ingenane type diterpene esters fromEuphorbia cyparissias L.

Summary From the roots ofEuphorbia cyparissias L. a highly irritant diterpene ester fraction was isolated and further resolved into its constituents. Together with some less active and some inactive isomers, the pure Euphorbia factors were characterized as new diesters of 13-hydroxyingenol and as triesters of the new 13,19-dihydroxyingenol. The Euphorbia factorsCy ₆,Cy ₁₁ andCy ₁₄ are the strongest irritants of the ingenane ester type hitherto known,Cy ₁₁ being at least as active as the standard diterpene ester type irritant 12-O-tetradecanoylphorbol-13-acetate (TPA).Acknowledgments. We are greatly indebted to the Wilhelm and Maria Meyenburg Foundation for financial support for the supply of plant material required for this investigation.The results were partially presented by H.H.O. at the 17. Hauptversammlung der Gesellschaft Deutscher Chemiker. München, 12.–16.9.1977. PhD-thesis. University of Heidelberg, 1978.     

Analysis of many short time sequences: Forecast improvements achieved by shrinkage

Credibility models in actuarial science deal with multiple short time series where each series represents claim amounts of different insurance groups. Commonly used credibility models imply shrinkage of group-specific estimates towards their average. In this paper we model the claim size yu in group i and at time t as the sum of three independent components: y_it = μ_r + δ_i + ?_it. The first component, μt = μ_t?1 + m_t, represents time-varying levels that are common to all groups. The second component, δ_i, represents random group offsets that are the same in all periods, and the third component represents independent measurement errors. In this paper we show how to obtain forecasts from this model and we discuss the nature of the forecasts, with particular emphasis on shrinkage. We also assess the forecast improvements that can be expected from such a model. Finally, we discuss an extension of the above model which also allows the group offsets to change over time. We assume that the offsets for different groups follow independent random walks.     

Communications préliminaires sur les chromosomes des Plécoptères

Summary The chromosomal sets of five species ofPerlodidæ (Plecoptera) are given in the present paper. The sexual chromosomes belong to three distinct types:X-O,X ₁-X ₂,X ₁-X ₂-X ₃. The author shows that these three types are likely derived from the most primitive patternX-Y, by translocation and inversion.     

Sopra un caso particolare della superficie F 4 (3) di M. Noether

Summary The Noetherian surfaceF ₄ ⁽³⁾ , which is represented on a plane by a linear ³ system ofC ₉(A ₁ ³ A ₂ ³ A ₃ ³ A ₄ ³ A ₅ ³ A ₆ ³ A ₇ ³ A ₈ ³ A ₉ ² A ₁₀), possesses generally only one linear pencil of elliptic cubics. IfA _i (i=1, 2, , 9) are the basis points of aHalphen pencil ofC ₉,A ₁₀ is infinitely near toA ₉, and in this caseF ₄ ⁽³⁾ is a not trivial example of such a surface with two pencils of elliptic cubics.     

Temporal Aggregation in Dynamic Linear Models

One important aspect concerning the analysis and forecasting of time series that is sometimes neglected is the relationship between a model and the sampling interval, in particular, when the observation is cumulative over the sampling period. This paper intends to study the temporal aggregation in Bayesian dynamic linear models (DLM). Suppose that a time series Y_t is observed at time units t and the observations of the process are aggregated over r units of time, defining a new time series Z_k=Σ^r_i=1Y_rk+i. The relevant factors explaining the variation of Z_k can, and in general will, be different, depending on how the sampling interval r is chosen. It is shown that if Y_t follows certain dynamic linear models, then the aggregated series can also be described by possibly different DLM. In the examples, the industrial production of Brazil is analysed under various aggregation periods and the results are compared. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting for the generation of trading signals in financial markets

In this paper we show that optimal trading results can be achieved if we can forecast a key summary statistic of future prices. Consider the following optimization problem. Let the return r_i (over time i=1, 2, ..., n) for the ith day be given and the investor has to make investment decision d_i on the ith day with d_i=1 representing a ‘long' position and d_i=0 a ‘neutral' position. The investment return is given by r=Σⁿ_i=1r_id_i−cΣⁿ⁺¹_i=1∣d_i−d_i−1∣, where c is the transaction cost. The mathematical programming problem of choosing d₁, ..., d_n to maximize r under a given transaction cost c is shown to have an analytic solution, which is a function of a key summary statistic called the largest change before reversal. The largest change before reversal is recommended to be used as an output in a neural network for the generation of trading signals. When neural network forecasting is applied to a dataset of Hang Seng Index Futures Contract traded in Hong Kong, it is shown that forecasting the largest change before reversal outperforms the k‐step‐ahead forecast in achieving higher trading profits. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ligand recognition by the I domain-containing integrins

Seven of the integrin α subunits described to date, α ₁ , α ₂ , α _L , α _X , α _d , α _M and α _E , contain a highly conserved I (or A) domain of approximately 200 amino acid residues inserted near the amino-terminus of the subunit. As the result of a variety of independent experimental approaches, a large body of data has recently accumulated that indicates that the I domains are independent, autonomously folding domains capable of directly binding ligands that play a necessary and important role in ligand binding by the intact integrins. Recent crystallographic studies have elucidated the structures of recombinant α _M and α _L I domains and also delineated a novel divalent cation-binding motif within the I domains (metal ion-dependent adhesion site, MIDAS) that appears to mediate the divalent cation binding of the I domains and the I domain-containing integrins to their ligands.     

On the mechanism of inhibition of p27 degradation by 15-deoxy-Δ12,14-prostaglandin J 2 in lymphoblasts of Alzheimer’s disease patients

It has been proposed that neuroinflammation, among other factors, may trigger an aberrant neuronal cell cycle re-entry leading to neuronal death. Cell cycle disturbances are also detectable in peripheral cells from Alzheimer’s disease (AD) patients. We previously reported that the anti-inflammatory 15- deoxy-Δ^12,14-prostaglandin J ₂ (15d-PGJ ₂) increased the cellular content of the cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor p27, in lymphoblasts from AD patients. This work aimed at elucidating the mechanisms of 15d-PGJ ₂-induced p27 accumulation. Phosphorylation, half-life, and the nucleo-cytoplasmic traffic of p27 protein were altered by 15d-PGJ2 by mechanisms dependent on PI3K/Akt activity. 15d-PGJ ₂ prevents the calmodulin-dependent Akt overactivation in AD lymphoblasts by blocking its binding to the 85-kDa regulatory subunit of PI3K. These effects of 15d-PGJ ₂ were not mimicked by 9,10-dihydro-15-deoxy-Δ^12,14- prostaglandin J ₂, suggesting that 15d-PGJ ₂ acts independently of peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor γ activation and that the α,β-unsaturated carbonyl group in the cyclopentenone ring of 15d-PGJ ₂ is a requisite for the observed effects. Received 14 July 2008; received after revision 2 September 2008; accepted 12 September 2008     

Sensitivity of univariate AR(1) time‐series forecasts near the unit root

We consider the linear time‐series model y_t=d_t+u_t(t=1,...,n), where d_t is the deterministic trend and u_t the stochastic term which follows an AR(1) process; u_t=θu_t−1+ϵ_t, with normal innovations ϵ_t. Various assumptions about the start‐up will be made. Our main interest lies in the behaviour of the l‐period‐ahead forecast y_n+1 near θ=1. Unlike in other studies of the AR(1) unit root process, we do not wish to ask the question whether θ=1 but are concerned with the behaviour of the forecast estimate near and at θ=1. For this purpose we define the sth (s=1,2) order sensitivity measure λ_l^(s) of the forecast y_n+1 near θ=1. This measures the sensitivity of the forecast at the unit root. In this study we consider two deterministic trends: d_t=β_t and d_t=β_t+β_tt. The forecast will be the Best Linear Unbiased forecast. We show that, when d_t=β_t, the number of observations has no effect on forecast sensitivity. When the deterministic trend is linear, the sensitivity is zero. We also develop a large‐sample procedure to measure the forecast sensitivity when we are uncertain whether to include the linear trend. Our analysis suggests that, depending on the initial conditions, it is better to include a linear trend for reduced sensitivity of the medium‐term forecast. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exact test for opposite trends of probability changes in one or several 3×2 tables

Zusammenfassung Der «Likelihood»-Quotiententest wird auf einer 3×2-Kontigenztafel mit unbekannten Wahrscheinlichkeitenp _ij (i=1,2,3;j=1,2) angewandt, um die Hypothese H₀:p _i1=p _i2 (i=1,2,3) gegen die alternative Hypothese H₁:p ₁₁>p ₁₂ p ₃₁<p ₃₂ zuprüfen, und zwar wenn kleine Stichproben vorhanden sind. Ausserdem wird die Kombination solcher Tests behandelt. Als Beispiel wird diese Testtheorie beim Wahlverhalten des Kabeljaus im Dressurversuch über akustische Lokalisation in zwei Stimulussituationen verwendet.

---

---

The close cooperation with Drs.E. Meelis, Institute of Theoretical Biology Leyden, The Netherlands, in applying the likelihood ratio test to this case is gratefully acknowledged.

---

The author is greatly indebted to Dr.J. Oosterhoff, Mathematical Institute, University of Nijmegen, The Netherlands, for introducing the subclasses 1b and 1c in the computation of vector and for the explicit expressions in these cases which eliminated the need for a numerical optimization. Further more valuable remarks regarding the combination problem were obtained.     

Enrichment of ligands with molecular dockings and subsequent characterization for human alcohol dehydrogenase 3

Alcohol dehydrogenase 3 (ADH3) has been assigned a role in nitric oxide homeostasis due to its function as an S-nitrosoglutathione reductase. As altered S-nitrosoglutathione levels are often associated with disease, compounds that modulate ADH3 activity might be of therapeutic interest. We performed a virtual screening with molecular dockings of more than 40,000 compounds into the active site of human ADH3. A novel knowledge-based scoring method was used to rank compounds, and several compounds that were not known to interact with ADH3 were tested in vitro. Two of these showed substrate activity (9-decen-1-ol and dodecyltetraglycol), where calculated binding scoring energies correlated well with the logarithm of the k _cat/K _m values for the substrates. Two compounds showed inhibition capacity (deoxycholic acid and doxorubicin), and with these data three different lines for specific inhibitors for ADH3 are suggested: fatty acids, glutathione analogs, and cholic acids.     

The C4-dicarboxylate transport system ofRhizobium meliloti and its role in nitrogen fixation during symbiosis with alfalfa (Medicago sativa)

TheRhizobium meliloti C₄-dicarboxylate transport (Dct) system is essential for an effective symbiosis with alfalfa plants. C₄-dicarboxylates are the major carbon source taken up by bacteroids. Genetic analysis of Dct^– mutant strains led to the isolation of thedct carrier genedctA and the regulatory genesdctB anddctD. The carrier genedctA is regulated in free-living cells by the alternative sigma factor RpoN and the two-component regulatory system DctB/D. In addition, DctA is involved in its own regulation, possibly by interacting with DctB. In bacteroids, besides the DctB/DctD system an additional symbiotic activator is thought to be involved indctA expression. Further regulation ofdctA in the free-living state is reflected by diauxic growth of rhizobia, with succinate being the preferred carbon source. The tight coupling of C₄-dicarboxylate transport and nitrogen fixation is revealed by a reduced level of C₄-dicarboxylate transport in nitrogenase negative bacteroids.     

Developmental changes of aldehyde dehydrogenase isozymes in human livers: Mitochondrial ALDH2 isozyme is expressed in fetal livers

Summary Previous reports suggested that the major cytosolic aldehyde dehydrogenase (ALDH₁) was present in fetal and infant livers, but the major mitochondrial isozyme (ALDH₂) was absent or severely diminished. Re-examination by means of starch gel electrophoresis followed by enzyme activity staining, and by means of dot blot immuno-hybridization of liver samples with known genotypes of theALDH ₂ locus, indicated that bothALDH ₁ andALDH ₂ genes are expressed in fetal and infant livers. In addition, ALDH₄ isozyme was also observed. The results imply that a fetus with the usual homozygousALDH ₂ ¹ /ALDH ₂ ¹ genotype, but not one with the atypicalALDH ₂ ¹ /ALDH ₂ ² orALDH ₂ ² /ALDH ₂ ² , is capable of detoxifying acetaldehyde transferred from the mother.