基于模糊控制修正Elman神经网络的电力负荷短期动态预测

为了更好地反映电力负荷系统非线性、动态性、时变性的特点,对电力负荷进行更加智能、准确的预测,将Elman神经网络与模糊控制相结合,提出了一种基于模糊控制修正Elman神经网络的电力负荷短期动态预测模型。首先利用Elman神经网络对电力负荷进行预测并计算预测残差,然后利用模糊控制对残差进行预测控制并对Elman神经网络预测结果进行智能修正,最后结合Elman神经网络与模糊控制修正结果得到最终的电力负荷预测结果。以辽宁省某市2015年6月份部分电力负荷历史数据为样本,结合天气温度情况,利用本文提出的模型进行了实际电力负荷短期预测,最终结果误差较小且比较稳定,优于单一Elman神经网络和该市目前电力系统预测结果,验证了本文提出模型的有效性及可靠性,为短期电力负荷预测提供了一种较为可靠的途径。     

基于核和测度的连续区间灰数Verhulst预测模型构建与应用

针对现有区间灰数Verhulst对整体呈现\"S\"形变化特性的连续区间灰数序列模拟误差较大的问题,通过分析构造序列的特征,提出一种改进的连续区间灰数Verhulst动态预测模型,即先分别构建连续区间的核序列和测度序列,继而建立核序列的灰色Verhulst预测模型和测度序列的灰色Verhulst预测模型,最后构建区间上下界预测模型。将此模型应用于青海玉树地震伤病员人数的预测,并与多种典型Verhulst预测模型进行对比,结果表明该模型预测精度更高,模拟效果更好。     

道路交通事故等间隔序列的灰色预测方法

在分析道路交通系统灰色属性的基础上，论文提出可以将道路交通事故作为道路交通系统行为特征量处理，运用灰色理论和方法来进行道路交通事故预测，在此基础上，建立了道路交通事故的等间隔序列灰色预测模型，并运用实例验证了模型的实用性。     

灰色及其改进模型在人口预测中的应用

在灰色GM（1,1）模型和优化的等维递补GM（1,1）模型的基础上,构建了灰色＋BP神经网络组合模型。对2001～2005年我国人口的变化分析后,建立人口总量模型进行预测,利用原始教据建立的灰色＋BP神经网络组合模型预测我国2008年以后五年的人口总量为13．39亿、13．49亿、13．60亿、13．7亿、13．79亿,有逐年上升的趋势。经综合误差分析和后验差检验均为“优秀”,说明该模型具有一定的应用价值。     

生物能量在生命体中传递的新理论及应用

生物能量在生物体当中的传递是生命科学中的一个基本问题,它相关于ATP水解放出的能量沿着蛋白质分子的传递。这种传递与蛋白质的动力学相关。根据ATP分子分布和水解的特性以及蛋白质结构的特点,在Davyclov理论的基础上提出了一个新的生物能量传递的理论。在这个理论当中,Amide振动的集体激发状态用一个两量子准相干态表示,系统的哈密顿量不但包含了Amide振动引起的相邻氨基酸残基的位移,而且包含了相邻Amide之间的共振相互作用所引起的氨基酸残基的相对位置的改变。由这个理论得出的传递生物能量的孤子的寿命可得10^-10秒,在这个时间之内孤子能传递过上千个氨基酸残基,因此它能在生物过程中起着重要的作用。这个理论与E．col．的Ramma谱的实验结果和我们做出的胶原蛋白的红外吸收谱等实验结果相一致,因此它可能是生物体中生物能量传递的一个可利用的和正确的理论。     

Distribution of HIV-1 in the genomes of AIDS patients

The localization of HIV-1 proviruses in compositional DNA fractions from 27 AIDS patients during the chronic phase of the disease with depletion of CD4+ and different levels of viremia showed the following. (1) At low viremia, proviruses are predominantly localized in the GC-richest isochores, which are characterized by an open chromatin structure; this result mimics findings on HIV-1 integration in early infected cells in culture. (2) At higher viremia, an increased distribution of proviruses in GC-poor isochores (which match the GC poorness of HIV-1) was found; this suggests a selection of cells in which the isopycnic localization leads to a higher expression of proviruses and, in turn, to higher viremia. (3) At the highest viremia, integrations in GC-rich isochores are often predominant again, but generally not at the same level as in (1); this may be the consequence of new integrations from the extremely abundant RNA copies.Received 21 November 2003; received after revision 13 January 2004: accepted 15 January 2004     

Effects of TA [4-ethoxy-1-(p-tolyl)-s-triazine-2,6-(1H, 3H)-dione] on growth,antheridium differentiation and gibberellin uptake of gametophytes ofAnemia phyllitidis L. Sw.

Summary Synergistic effects of TA on gibberellin-dependent reactions in spermatophytes are not detectable in gametophytes of the fernAnemia phyllitidis where gibberellin substitutes for antheridiogens with regard to induction of male sexual organs and dark germination. In this archegoniate TA caused a significant reduction in growth rate and morphogenesis of the gametophytes, inhibitions that were not abolished by simultaneous application of gibberellin.     

Forecasting the economic recession in the U.K. 1979-1982: A comparison of model-based ex ante Forecasts

This paper compares the forecasts of recession and recovery made by five non-government U.K. teams modelling the economy (Cambridge Econometrics, the London Business School, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, the Cambridge Economic Policy Group and the Liverpool Research Group). The paper concentrates on annual ex ante projections as published over the period 1978-1982, i.e. forecasts made, before the event, of the onset, length, depth and character of the economic recession in the U.K. which began in 1979. The comparison is in terms of year by year changes in production, unemployment, prices and other variables. It concludes that no group was systematically better or worse than other groups (confirming U.S. experience) and that the groups tended to perform better in their chosen areas of specialization, e.g. medium-term groups did better at forecasting the medium-term outcome.     

Mathematical method and Newtonian science in the philosophy of Christian Wolff

This paper aims to illuminate Christian Wolff’s view of mathematical reasoning, and its use in metaphysics, by comparing his and Leibniz’s responses to Newton’s work. Both Wolff and Leibniz object that Newton’s metaphysics is based on ideas of sense and imagination that are suitable only for mathematics. Yet Wolff expresses more regard (than Leibniz) for Newton’s scientific achievement. Wolff’s approval of the use of imaginative ideas in Newtonian mathematical science seems to commit him to an inconsistent triad. For he rejects their use in metaphysics, and also holds that every scientific discipline must follow mathematics’ method. A facile resolution would be to suppose Wolff identifies the method of mathematics with the order in which propositions are deduced, or with “analysis” that reveals the structure of concepts. This would be to assimilate Wolff’s view to Leibniz’s (on which all mathematical propositions are ultimately derived from definitions, and definitions are justified by conceptual analysis). On this construal, mathematical reasoning involves only the understanding. But Wolff conceives mathematics’ method more broadly, to include processes of concept-formation which involve perception and imagination. Thus my way of resolving the tension is to find roles for perception and imagination in the formation of metaphysical concepts.     

Nuclear science and technology in the Malaysian context: Three phases of technoscientific knowledge transfer (ETTLG)

This essay considers the development of the nuclear science programme in Malaysia from a transnational perspective by examining the interactions between state agents and other external nuclear-knowledge/technology related actors and agents. Going beyond the model of knowledge diffusion that brings together concerns articulated in Harris’s (2011) geographies of long distance knowledge and Reinhardt's (2011) role of the expert in knowledge transfer, the proposed three-phase model of knowledge transfer theorises the pathways undertaken by a late-blooming participant of modern science and technology as the latter moves from epistemic dependency to increasing independence despite the hurdles encountered, and the underdevelopment of many areas of its technoscientific economy. The model considers tensions stemming from the pressures of expediency for meeting national developmental goals on the one side, and the call to support the objectives of basic science on the other. The three phases of the model are epistemic transition, epistemic transplantation and localisation, and epistemic generation (ETTLG). As additional support for the proposed model, three arguments are proffered as deeper explanations of the epistemic goal by using Malaysia as a case study: knowledge transfer for political legitimization, knowledge transfer for countering agnotology, and knowledge transfer for social engineering and science diplomacy.     

APC/C regulation of axonal growth and synaptic functions in postmitotic neurons: the Liprin-{\varvec \alpha} connection

Protein ubiquitination has critical roles in neuronal physiology and defects in protein ubiquitination have been implicated in neurodegenerative pathology. The anaphase-promoting complex/cyclosome (APC/C) is one of two key E3 ubiquitin ligase complexes that functions in regulating cell cycle transitions in proliferating cells by acting on cyclins and components of the mitotic/meiotic apparatus. Documentation of APC/C's action beyond cell division is sparse. In the past year, however, novel and surprising roles for APC/C in postmitotic neurons, particularly in the modulation of axonal growth and synaptic functions, have been revealed. APC/C and its activator Cdh-1 are found in good abundance in neurons, and these seem to function at different cellular locations, modulating apparently diverse processes such as axonal growth and synaptic function. Interestingly, there also appears to be a single link to these apparently divergent actions of APC/C in neurons--the multi-domain, multi-functional scaffolding protein Liprin-alpha which is an APC/C substrate.