Subset selection of autoregressive time series models

We propose a solution to select promising subsets of autoregressive time series models for further consideration which follows up on the idea of the stochastic search variable selection procedure in George and McCulloch (1993). It is based on a Bayesian approach which is unconditional on the initial terms. The autoregression stepup is in the form of a hierarchical normal mixture model, where latent variables are used to identify the subset choice. The framework of our procedure is utilized by the Gibbs sampler, a Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The advantage of the method presented is computational: it is an alternative way to search over a potentially large set of possible subsets. The proposed method is illustrated with a simulated data as well as a real data. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一种基于Markov随机场模型的核磁共振图像分割方法

为了提高核磁共振(MR)图像分割的效果,提出了一种基于Markov随机场模型的分割方法。该方法利用Markov随机场描述图像的先验分布,结合MAP准则获得分割优化函数,通过ICM局部迭代使分割优化函数收敛。迭代过程中引入了后验概率矩阵的平滑;提高了分割的精度和速度。实测数据的实验结果证明了所提方法的有效性。     

The regulation of trehalose metabolism in insects

Trehalose is a non-reducing disaccharide comprising two glucose molecules. It is present in high concentration as the main haemolymph (blood) sugar in insects. The synthesis of trehalose in the fat body (an organ analogous in function to a combination of liver and adipose tissue in vertebrates) is stimulated by neuropeptides (hypertrehalosaemic hormones), released from the corpora cardiaca, a neurohaemal organ associated with the brain. The peptides cause a decrease in the content of fructose 2,6-bisphosphate in fat body cells. Fructose 2,6-bisphosphate, acting synergistically with AMP, is a potent activator of the glycolytic enzyme 6-phosphofructokinase-1 and a strong inhibitor of the gluconeogenic enzyme fructose 1,6-bisphosphatase. This indicates that fructose 2,6-bisphosphate is a key metabolic signal in the regulation of trehalose synthesis in insects. Trehalose is hydrolysed by trehalase (E.C. 3.2.1.28). The activity of this enzyme is regulated in flight muscle, but the mechanism by which this is achieved is unknown. Trehalase from locust, flight muscle is a glycoprotein bound to membranes of the microsomal fraction. The enzyme can be activated by detergents in vitro and by short flight intervals in vivo, which indicates that changes in the membrane environment modulate trehalase activity under physiological conditions.     

非线性薄膜方程的差分迭代求解

对类似于非线性薄膜一类的非线性偏微分方程提出一种新的算法.该法首先略去非线性部分的影响,或给予非线性部分莱一初值,使非线性部分成为已知,从而将原非线性方程转化为线性方程,并按差分法或其它方法求得其线性解.再将所得线性解代入非线性部分使其成为已知,再次求得其解.这样反复迭代直至收敛,进而求得原非线性方程的非线性解.     

Creating high‐frequency national accounts with state‐space modelling: a Monte Carlo experiment

This paper assesses a new technique for producing high‐frequency data from lower frequency measurements subject to the full set of identities within the data all holding. The technique is assessed through a set of Monte Carlo experiments. The example used here is gross domestic product (GDP) which is observed at quarterly intervals in the United States and it is a flow economic variable rather than a stock. The problem of constructing an unobserved monthly GDP variable can be handled using state space modelling. The solution of the problem lies in finding a suitable state space representation. A Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to illustrate this concept and to identify which variant of the model gives the best monthly estimates. The results demonstrate that the more simple models do almost as well as more complex ones and hence there may be little gain in return for the extra work of using a complex model. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Kinetics of insulin secretion in response to glucose by isolated islands of Langerhans from the fetal rat]

Isolated islets of Langerhans from 21.5 day-old foetal Rats were studied in a perifusion system in vitro. The overall dynamics of insulin release by the foetal islets in response to glucose 13.9 mM is biphasic and qualitatively similar to that obtained with islets of adult Rats. The magnitude of the initial phase of insulin secretion is similar for the foetal and adult islets. The second phase is fourfold higher in the adult than in the foetus. The response of foetal islets occurs, 45 to 60 sec. after the increase of glucose concentration in the medium and a maximum insulin release for the first phase is obtained with a lag period of 2 min. The difference between foetal and adult islets is essentially quantitative.     

The naturalism of the sciences

The sciences are characterized by what is sometimes called a “methodological naturalism,” which disregards talk of divine agency. In response to those who argue that this reflects a dogmatic materialism, a number of philosophers have offered a pragmatic defense. The naturalism of the sciences, they argue, is provisional and defeasible: it is justified by the fact that unsuccessful theistic explanations have been superseded by successful natural ones. But this defense is inconsistent with the history of the sciences. The sciences have always exhibited what we call a domain naturalism. They have never invoked divine agency, but have always focused on the causal structure of the natural world. It is not the case, therefore, that the sciences once employed theistic explanations and then abandoned them. The naturalism of the sciences is as old as science itself.     

Household projection methods

"The role of household projections as a basis for forecasts of households at [the] national and sub-national level is discussed and a number of criteria for such projections are outlined. The projection method used by the Department of the Environment [in the United Kingdom] is examined in the context of these criteria and it is concluded that it is both practical and robust. However, it is open to criticism, first because of its failure to make the best use of the available data and of theoretical knowledge, and secondly because of its 'black box' nature. An alternative two-stage strategy is developed. The first stage involves constructing projections using a new curve-fitting method which takes account of within cohort life-cycle headship rate changes. The second is a method of analysing the resulting projections by modelling transition rates between different household states. Worked examples of both methods are presented."     

基于非线性自适应神经网络的刨煤机刨头位置控制系统

由于多种因素影响刨煤机刨头位置的控制，本文提出了一种基于非线性自适应神经网络的刨煤机刨头位置控制系统，该系统采用了多传感器数据融合的方法，并将其应用在前馈反馈自适应神经网络中，其结果表明，与常规PID系统相比该系统能够消除静差从而更好地跟踪参考曲线。     

Relation entre l'activité de la glande thyroÏde et la consommation d'oxygène chez les Téléostéens,Cichlidés

Summary The study of the relationship between the activity of the thyroid of Cichlid fishes and oxygen consumption has given the following results: The stimulation by thyroxine causes a significant increase of oxygen consumption (+35%) after a long treatment. This increase is not immediate; a latent period is observed till the gland is in repose. The antithyroid rapidly decreases the oxygen consumption (–24%). But this chemical blocking is not stable.     

Oxygen consumption in human placental lobules in vitro (survival maintained by perfusion)]

The average oxygen utilization coefficient of 26% is calculated from PO2 determinations during the perfusion of the fetal circulation of isolated human term placental lobules. The oxygen consumption approximates 0.4 ml/min/kg placenta when Earle's salt solution is used as a perfusion medium and is equilibrated with a gas mixture containing 5% O2. The oxygen consumption reaches 2 ml/min/kg when the same Earle's solution is equilibrated with a gas mixture containing 95% O2.     

The fine structure of the conical-headed sperm of the crinoidAntedon bifida

Summary Scanning- and transmission electron microscopy show that the sperm head ofAntedon bifida is conical and thus different from the spherical sperm head that is typical of crinoids. The head consists of the acrosome and the nucleus. The posterior fibrogranular component of the acrosome is housed in a tubular, axial invagination running from the anterior pole almost to the posterior pole of the nucleus. The middle piece includes a mitochondrion and a pair of centrioles. One of the centrioles is a basal body, which gives rise to the tail flagellum.     

Forecasting water demand—A disaggregated approach

The paper outlines the background research into domestic and industrial water use that was conducted over a period of 3 years and the use that was subsequently made of the detailed information in establishing a revised 20 year forecast of the demand for potable water supplies in the Severn–Trent Water Authority area in England. The major difficulty in forecasting water demand is its multiplicity of uses, each with a different potential rate of growth in demand; a further complication is the growth in water recycling in industry. The water industry is one of the most capital intensive industries in the UK and because of the large capital sums involved in reservoir development and the long lead times for construction, the reliability of forecasts is a sensitive area. The component method described in this paper replaces the traditional extrapolatory approach and is believed to produce more meaningful forecasts.     

Control of sequences of movements in crayfish escape behavior

Summary Crayfish escape from predators by a series of rapid tailflips. The production of this seemingly simple behavior involves the interaction of multiple neural control mechanisms. The rapid flexion phase of the first tailflip is a fixed action pattern that is always organized by giant command neurons. Subsequent reextension is a chain reflex mediated by sensory feedback from the initial flexion. All following tailflips are produced by a non-gialnt system which is activated in parallel with the giant system by the escape-initiating stimulus. Proper integration of the giant system and the non-giant system is mediated by a reaction time mechanism.     

Genetic code 1990. Outlook

The genetic code is evolving as shown by 9 departures from the universal code: 6 of them are in mitochondria and 3 are in nuclear codes. We propose that these changes are preceded by disappearance of a codon from coding sequences in mRNA of an organism or organelle. The function of the codon that disappears is taken by other, synonymous codons, so that there is no change in amino acid sequences of proteins. The deleted codon then reappears with a new function. Wobble pairing between anticodons and codons has evolved, starting with a single UNN anticodon pairing with 4 codons. Directional mutation pressure affects codon usage and may produce codon reassignments, especially of stop codons. Selenocysteine is coded by UGA, which is also a stop codon, and this anomaly is discussed. The outlook for discovery of more changes in the code is favorable, and open reading frames should be compared with actual sequential analyses of protein molecules in this search.     

Predictions in Overdispersed Series of Counts Using an Approximate Predictive Likelihood

The generalized autoregression model or GARM, originally used to model series of non-negative data measured at irregularly spaced time points (Lambert, 1996a), is considered in a count data context. It is first shown how the GARM can be expressed as a GLM in the special case of a linear model for some transform of the location parameter. The Butler approximate predictive likelihood (Butler, 1986, Rejoinder) is then used to define likelihood prediction envelopes. The width of these intervals is shown to be slightly wider than the Fisher (1959, pp. 128–33) and Lejeune and Faulkenberry (1982) predictive likelihood-based envelopes which assume that the parameters have fixed known values (equal to their maximum likelihood estimates). The method is illustrated on a small count data set showing overdispersion.© 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A comparison of pyridoxal 5'-phosphate dependent decarboxylase and transaminase enzymes at a molecular level.

Pyridoxal 5'-phosphate is a coenzyme for a number of enzymes which catalyse reactions at C alpha of amino acid substrates including transaminases, decarboxylases and serine hydroxymethyltransferase. Using the X-ray coordinates for a transaminase, aspartate aminotransferase, and the results of stereochemical and mechanistic studies for decarboxylases and serine hydroxymethyltransferase, an active-site structure for the decarboxylase group is constructed. The structure of the active-site is further refined through active-site pyridoxyllysine peptide sequence comparison and a 3-D catalytic mechanism for the L-alpha-amino acid decarboxylases is proposed. The chemistry of serine hydroxymethyltransferase is re-examined in the light of the proposed decarboxylase mechanism.     

The growth of mathematical knowledge—Introduction of convex bodies

The article addresses the topic of the growth of mathematical knowledge with a special focus on the question: How are mathematical objects introduced to mathematical practice? It takes as starting point a proposal made in a previous paper which is based on a case study on the introduction of Riemann surfaces. The claim is that (i) a new object first refers to previously accepted objects, and that (ii) reasoning is possible via a correspondence to the objects with reference to which it is introduced. In addition Riemann surfaces are geometrical objects, i.e., they are placed in a geometrical context, which makes new definitions possible. This proposal is tested on a case study on Minkowski’s introduction of convex bodies. The conclusion is that the proposal holds also for this example. In both cases we notice that in a first stage is a close connection between the new object and the objects it is introduced with reference to, and that in a later stage, the new object is given an independent definition. Even though the two cases display similarity in these respects, we also point to certain differences between the cases in the process of the first stage. Overall we notice the fruitfulness of representing problems in different contexts.     

Kuhn’s Structure of Scientific Revolutions between sociology and epistemology

The aim of the paper is to clarify Kuhn’s theory of scientific revolutions. We propose to discriminate between a scientific revolution, which is a sociological event of a change of attitude of the scientific community with respect to a particular theory, and an epistemic rupture, which is a linguistic fact consisting of a discontinuity in the linguistic framework in which this theory is formulated. We propose a classification of epistemic ruptures into four types. In the paper, each of these types of epistemic ruptures is illustrated by examples from physics. The classification of epistemic ruptures can be used as a basis for a classification of scientific revolutions and thus for a refinement of our view of the progress of science.     

Enzymatic characteristics of the guanylate cyclase of KB cells: their change as a function of the development of the cultures]

We have localized 71% of the guanylate cyclase activity in the (G X 105,000) supernatent fraction of broken KB cells. The reaction follows Michaelis-Menten kinetics, the apparent Km for GTP is 0,5 mM, as long as GTP is lower than a limited concentration, then activity is inhibited. The ion Mn++ is an absolutely required activator, it does not change enzyme-substrate affinity. The enzyme shows several types of binding sites of Mn++. Guanylate cyclase, studied over a period of development of culture, shows, in KB cells without cell contact, an activity higher than that observed in confluent cells. This is not due to the fact of a change in enzyme-substrate affinity but to a modification of Mn++ influence.