The seasonal cycle of interhemispheric oscillations in mass field of the global atmosphere

Using the daily and monthly data of surface air pressure, meridional wind, radiation and water vapor from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the period of 1979―2006, we have examined the seasonal variations of the interhemispheric oscillations (IHO) in mass field of the global atmosphere. Our results have demonstrated that IHO as observed in surface air pressure field shows the distinct seasonal cycle. This seasonal cycle has an interhemispheric seesaw structure with comparable annual ranges of surface air pressure in the Southern and Northern Hemispheres. Mass of water vapor changes out-of-phase between the Southern and Northern Hemispheres, showing clearly a seasonal cycle with its annual range almost equivalent to annual range of the IHO seasonal cycle. Amazingly, the cross-equatorial flow is found to be induced by annual changes in water vapor mass as a response of the atmosphere to seasonal cycle of forcing from hemispheric net surface short- and long-wave radiations. The IHO seasonality exhibits its larger variations in magnitude in mid-latitudes other than in other regions of the globe. Additionally, our results also show that the global air mass is redistributed seasonally not only between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres but also between land and sea. This land-sea air mass redis- tribution induces a zonal pattern of surface air pressure in the Northern Hemisphere but the meridional pattern in the Southern Hemisphere.     

Effects of sub-lithospheric small-scale convection with a Newtonian rheology on the seafloor topography and heat flux

Scafloor topography and heat flux show clear dependence on the age of seafloor. A half-space cooling (HSC)model can reproduce seafloor topography and heat flux data for younger seafloor, but for older seafloor the observations show reduced variations with the age in comparison with the HSC model predictions. The deviation was attributed to the sub-lithospheric small-scale (SSC) convection first by Parsons and McKenzie (1978). While there is little doubt that the SSC can enhance heat flux at relatively old seafloor, questions were raised as to whether or not the SSC can actually lead to a reduced topography. In this study, the effects of SSC on scafloor topography and heat flux are investigated by formulating a 2-D thermal convection model that is parallel to plate motion. Instead of using closed boundary conditions,which will bring large pressure effects because of return flow,a flow through boundary condition is adopted. The results show that although the SSC enhances the surface heat flux, it has little effects on topography for the fluids with a more realistic rheology. The reason for this is that the SSC transports the heat from the bottom to the top and cools down the whole fluids, and with the existence of a stagnant lid, the whole effects on topography are negligible.     

乐音信号起始时间检测之谱能流法的评价与改进

对乐音信号起始时刻检测的谱能流法进行了验证,详细分析了该算法各环节对检测性能的影响。用中心加权的中值滤波器代替谱能流法中的普通中值滤波器,使算法性能得到提高。     

Testing the ability of RIEMS2.0 to simulate multi-year precipitation and air temperature in China

RIEMS2.0 （Regional Integrated Environment Modeling System, Version 2.0） is now being developed starting from RIEMS1.0 by the Key Laboratory of Regional Climate Environment Research for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China. In order to test RIEMS2.0’s ability to simulate long-term climate and its changes, as well as provide a basis for further development and applications, we compare simulated precipitation and air temperature from 1980 to 2007 （simulation duration from Jan. 1, 1979 to Dec. 31, 2007） under different cumulus parameterization schemes with the observed data. The results show that RIEMS2.0 can reproduce the spatial distribution of precipitation and air temperature, but that the model overestimates precipitation with the rainfall center moving northwestward and underestimates air temperature for annual simulations. Annual and interannual variations in precipitation and air temperature for different climate subregions are well captured by the model. Further analysis of summer and winter simulations shows that precipitation is overestimated, except for the Jianghuai-Jiangnan subregions in the winter, and the air temperature bias in the summer is weaker than in the winter. There are larger biases for precipitation and air temperature in semiarid subregions. Anomalies in precipitation and air temperature are also well captured by the model. Although a similar distribution can be found between observed data and simulated results under different cumulus parameterization schemes, these show differences in intensity and location. In sum, RIEMS2.0 shows good stability and does well in simulating the long-term climate and its changes in China.     

东海PN断面障碍层和水团的季节变化特征及其可能联系

本文利用PN断面的高分辨率海水温-盐-深剖面测量仪(CTD)温度、盐度和密度资料进行分析,发现PN断面处的水团有明显的陆架水和黑潮水的交汇特征,且随着季节的变化PN断面处的水团特征也发生明显的变化.通过观测资料还确定了PN断面处障碍层是常年存在的而且具有显著的季节变化.采用曲线族拟合的水团分析方法,根据不同季节PN断面上陆架水和黑潮水的混合特征,证明了水团混合在障碍层形成及季节变化中的重要作用,发现障碍层的季节变化与陆架水团和黑潮水团混合的季节变化密切相关.夏季,陆架水团向外海延伸,浮置于黑潮水之上,此时障碍层深度最浅,障碍层厚度最大;秋季,黑潮水离岸最近,将黑潮水与陆架水的交汇处向西压迫至陆架内,此时几乎不存在障碍层,零星存在的障碍层深度较深,厚度是一年当中最薄的;冬季,由于黑潮水的核心相对于秋季向深海移动,使得陆架混合水也相应地向外海拓展,而且此时陆架水与黑潮水的交汇处不只在混合层内而是影响到跃层,此季节障碍层是一年当中深度最深,厚度最厚的;春季,黑潮水的核心以及两种水团的交汇处相对于冬季的位置更向深海移动,所以此时PN断面上的障碍层深度和厚度相对于冬季变化不大,只是位置东移.海面风场和净热通量场通过改变...     

Hierarchy and nonstationarity in climate systems： Exploring the prediction of complex systems

The prediction theories for complex systems with a hierarchial structure and their applications to the climate process are a significant and forward-looking field of research.However,up to the present,they are yet not known and understood very well. This paper presents a preliminary theoretical frame for them.As a normal example,the basic behaviors and the dynamic strructure of the climate system are discussed in detail.The conclusions indicate that the climate system may be considered as a cascade of several subsystems located in different hierarchies.Such a dynamic structure is just the cause resulting in the nonstationarity.The conclusions also indicate that the main barrier of the climate prediction in theory derives from the contrary between the stationarity hypothesis for the current prediction theory and the nonstationary behavior of the real climate process.In addition,some work is disussed for detecting the nonstationarity in climate and other geophysical data and predicting the nonstationary process developed in recent years.These works may construct a preliminary base for applying to the climate predictions.     

Siliceous microplankton fluxes and seasonal variations in the central South China Sea during 1993-1995:monsoon climate and El Ni(n)o responses

Seasonal variations of radiolarian and diatom fluxes in the central South China Sea during 1993-1995 were overwhelmingly controlled by monsoon climate. Radiolarian and diatom increased obviously during the Northeast (from November to February) and Southwest (from June to September) monsoons and decreased during the periods between the monsoons. The change of circulation driven by the monsoons improved water exchange in the different areas that brought rich nutrient materials for the surface microplankton, thereby enhancing radiolarian and diatom fluxes. Variation of radiolarian flux coincided with organic carbon flux, surface primary and export productivities. High radiolarian flux corresponded to high surface primary productivity. Radiolarian and diatom fluxes raised abnormally during 1994-1995 could be attributed to the El Ni(n)o event during the period.     

安西极旱荒漠自然保护区植物群落的季节变化和年际变化以及气候对变化的影响

在安西极旱荒漠自然保护区的典型植物群落中选取6个平行样方,连续3年调查植物数量、盖度和物种数量的季节变化和年际变化以及气候对植物群落季节变化和年际变化的影响。结果显示：植物群落物种数量和植株数量的季节变化主要是由一年生草本植物的季节变化引起的,而多年生灌木盖度的季节变化是植物群落盖度变化的主要原因。植物群落物种数量、植株数量和盖度的年际变化主要源于一年生草本植物物种数量、植株数量和盖度的变化。植物群落物种数量、植株数量和盖度的季节变化与降雨量和气温的变化正相关,而年际变化与降雨量和气温的变化关系不大。因此,降雨和气温仅影响荒漠植物群落结构的季节变化,而对年际变化影响不大。在气候条件变化较小的范围内,荒漠植物群落结构保持相对稳定的结构。     

砾岩地层岩石力学参数测井预测模型构建与应用

为评价某地区砾岩岩石力学特性,取岩心开展三轴压缩、巴西劈裂等力学试验,获取杨氏模量、泊松比、抗压强度和抗张强度等静态岩石力学参数。对试验数据进行深度归位,经测井曲线标准化等预处理后,使岩心岩石力学参数与测井数据匹配,将纵波时差、体积密度等测井数据与岩石力学参数进行数理统计法拟合,构建岩石力学参数的测井预测模型。根据模型计算得到的岩石力学参数,结合地应力、地层孔隙压力资料,计算地层坍塌压力、破裂压力等井壁稳定性评价参数。与实际的钻井和压裂工程的资料对比表明,基于试验数据构建的岩石力学参数模型较为合理,对研究区块砾岩地层具有良好的适应性。     

General solution to diagonal model matching control of multiple-output-delay systems and its applications in adaptive scheme

This paper mainly studies the model matching problem of multiple-output-delay systems in which the reference model is assigned to a diagonal transfer function matrix. A new model matching controller structure is ?rst developed, and then, it is shown that the controller is feasible if and only if the sets of Diophantine equations have common solutions. The obtained controller allows a parametric representation, which shows that an adaptive scheme can be used to tolerate parameter variations in the plants. The resulting adaptive law can guarantee the global stability of the closed-loop systems and the convergence of the output error.     

盐湖地区钢筋混凝土结构使用寿命的预测模型及其应用

根据Fick扩散定律，推导出综合考虑混凝土的氯离子结合能力，氯离子扩散系数的时间依赖性和混凝土结构微缺陷影响的新扩散方程，建立了用于预测混凝土使用寿命的氯离子扩散理论模型，用暴露于青海盐湖地区的C20和C40混凝土立方体试件对理论模型进行了实验验证，用在青海盐湖地区实际运行19a的钢筋混凝土结构对理论模型进行了工程验证，结果表明，本文理论模型的预测值与实测值非常吻合，而Fick第二扩散定律与实测值明显不符，此外，运用本文理论模型预测普通钢筋混凝土电杆在盐湖地区的使用寿命仅1．2a，而抗腐蚀钢筋混凝土电杆的使用寿命能够达到50a以上。     

Quick ice mass loss and abrupt retreat of the maritime glaciers in the Kangri Karpo Mountains,southeast Tibetan Plateau

The maritime glaciers are sensitive to climate change because of high annual precipitation and high air temperature in the region. A combined comprehensive study was carried out based on glacier mass balance observation, GPS-based glacier terminus position survey, glacier Ground Penetrating Radar, topography maps and RS satellite images in the Kangri Karpo Mountains, Southeast Tibet. The study revealed a strong ice mass loss and quick glacier retreat since the 1970s. Ata Glacier, one glacier from the south slope of the Kangri Karpo Mountains, has formed a 6-km-long terminal moraine zone at the end of the glacier since the 1970s, and the accelerating retreat is largely due to the strong glacier surface melting. Mass balance study on the other four glaciers on the northern side of the Kangri Karpo Mountains shows that they are in large negative mass balance and the glaciers had retreated 15--19 m from May 2006 to May 2007. The in-situ glacier observation also shows that the glacier retreat is more obvious in small glaciers. The enhanced ice mass deficit caused by climate warming and the ongoing extinction of many small glaciers in this region could seriously affect the water resources, environ- ments, local climate and regional sustainable development in the near future.     

Coastal erosion in China under the condition of global climate change and measures for its prevention

The general characteristics of coastal erosion in China are described in terms of the regional geography, the form of erosion, the causes of erosion, and the challenges we are facing. The paper highlights the relationship between coastal erosion and sea level rises,storm waves and tides, and the influence of global climate changes on coastal erosion along the coastal zone of China. The response of the risk of coastal erosion in China to climate changes has obvious regional diversity. Research into and the forecasting of the effects of climate changes on coastal erosion are systemic work involving the natural environment, social economy, and alongshore engineering projects in the global system. Facing global warming and continual enhancement of coastal erosion, suggestions for basic theoretical study, prevention technology, management system assurance, and strengthening the legal system are presented here.     

Uncertainties in assessing the effect of climate change on agriculture using model simulation and uncertainty processing methods

Model simulation is an important way to study the effects of climate change on agriculture.Such assessment is subject to a range of uncertainties because of either incomplete knowledge or model technical uncertainties,impeding effective decision-making to climate change.On the basis of uncertainties in the impact assessment at different levels,this article systematically summarizes the sources and propagation of uncertainty in the assessment of the effect of climate change on agriculture in terms of the climate projection,the assessment process,and the crop models linking to climate models.Meanwhile,techniques and methods focusing on different levels and sources of uncertainty and uncertainty propagation are introduced,and shortcomings and insufficiencies in uncertainty processing are pointed out.Finally,in terms of how to accurately assess the effect of climate change on agriculture,improvements to further decrease potential uncertainty are suggested.     

南充市近40年大雾天气气候特征分析及其与空气污染的关系

南充市位于四川盆地东北端,特殊的地形导致容易产生雾,了解南充市雾天的气候特征以及雾和空气污染的关系,对于人们健康生活具有指导意义.因此,本文通过对南充市1971—2008年雾天气候资料的统计分析,揭示了南充市雾天的气候特征,并且就雾和空气质量的关系进行了探讨,为人们深刻了解南充市的雾天气候特征及其危害提供科学的依据.     

冬季中东急流时空变化特征及其与中国气候的关系

采用1968—2009年NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料和1968—2008年月平均中国160站降水和气温资料,使用EOF分析等方法,研究了冬季中东急流的时空变化特征及其与中国气候的关系。结果表明:中东急流存在3个主要EOF空间模态(其方差贡献率分别为26.9%、20.9%和17.0%),第1模态反映了急流核下游的急流变化特征,第2模态反映了急流区域的南北反相变化特征,第3模态反映了急流核上游的急流变化特征;冬季中东急流指数具有明显的年际变化特征,主要存在2~4年和准8年的周期振荡。冬季中东急流与中国西南地区气温(华南地区降水)呈显著负(正)相关关系;中东急流偏强、偏弱年的中国气温及降水差值显著区域分别位于西南地区(最大差值达3°C)和华南大范围地区(最大差值达180 mm)。     

C语言微机图像库函数的开发和应用

在卫星气象应用实践中，开发了一系列运行在增强ＶＧＡ模式下的Ｃ语言图像库函数，包括：兼容不同厂家显示芯片的显示模式选择与屏幕读写操作，虚拟屏幕与大幅面图像函数，漫游，放大和后台处理ＲＧＢ真彩合成一彩色集群压缩，调色板运用与多种图像增弱方式，中，英文标注，图像图形点阵打印等。     

Identification model of multi-layered neural network parameters and its applications in the petroleum production

This paper creates a LM （Levenberg-Marquardt） algorithm model which is appropriate to solve the problem about weights value of feedforward neural network. On the base of this model, we provide two applications in the oilfield production. Firstly, we simulated the functional relationships between the petrophysical and electrical properties of the rock by neural networks model, and studied oil saturation. Under the precision of data is confirmed, this method can reduce the number of experiments. Secondly, we simulated the relationships between investment and income by the neural networks model, and studied invest saturation point and income growth rate. It is very significant to guide the investment decision. The research result shows that the model is suitable for the modeling and identification of nonlinear systems due to the great fit characteristic of neural network and very fast convergence speed of LM algorithm.     

石羊河上游1956-2009年出山径流量特征及其对气候变化的响应

利用石羊河上游气象站1956-2009年逐日气象资料及天祝县六条河流1956-2009年年出山径流量资料,应用FAO Penman-Monteith模型、小波变换及累积距平等方法分析石羊河上游天祝县出山径流量特征及其对气候变化的响应,结果表明:1956-2009年石羊河上游天祝县出山径流量在波动中总体呈微弱减少趋势,径流量变化倾向率为-0.288×10~8m~3/10a,其中,减少速度最快的是黄羊河,年径流量变化倾向率为-0.069×10~8m~3/10a.1950s,1960s及1980s为丰水期,1970s,1990s为枯水期,进入21世纪,尤其是2002-2009年径流量有所增加;降水量波动呈微弱增加趋势,降水量变化倾向率为1.165mm/10a,径流量与降水量存在显著正相关震荡,两者变化过程具有极吻合的同步性;气温整体呈明显上升趋势,气温变化倾向率为0.298℃/10a,尤其是20世纪80年代中后期以来,增温趋势更加明显;潜在蒸发量在波动中呈增加趋势,其变化倾向率为2.206mm/10a,径流量与气温、蒸发量呈显著负相关震荡;通过小波方差检验,径流量与降水量、气温及潜在蒸发量等各气候要素均分别存在22年左右、7-8年和3年左右的的显著变化周期,而且第一主周期均为准22年,径流量对气候变化响应明显.