The effects of human population structure on large genetic association studies

Large-scale association studies hold substantial promise for unraveling the genetic basis of common human diseases. A well-known problem with such studies is the presence of undetected population structure, which can lead to both false positive results and failures to detect genuine associations. Here we examine approximately 15,000 genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphisms typed in three population groups to assess the consequences of population structure on the coming generation of association studies. The consequences of population structure on association outcomes increase markedly with sample size. For the size of study needed to detect typical genetic effects in common diseases, even the modest levels of population structure within population groups cannot safely be ignored. We also examine one method for correcting for population structure (Genomic Control). Although it often performs well, it may not correct for structure if too few loci are used and may overcorrect in other settings, leading to substantial loss of power. The results of our analysis can guide the design of large-scale association studies.     

Assessing the impact of population stratification on genetic association studies

Population stratification refers to differences in allele frequencies between cases and controls due to systematic differences in ancestry rather than association of genes with disease. It has been proposed that false positive associations due to stratification can be controlled by genotyping a few dozen unlinked genetic markers. To assess stratification empirically, we analyzed data from 11 case-control and case-cohort association studies. We did not detect statistically significant evidence for stratification but did observe that assessments based on a few dozen markers lack power to rule out moderate levels of stratification that could cause false positive associations in studies designed to detect modest genetic risk factors. After increasing the number of markers and samples in a case-cohort study (the design most immune to stratification), we found that stratification was in fact present. Our results suggest that modest amounts of stratification can exist even in well designed studies.     

Replication validity of genetic association studies

The rapid growth of human genetics creates countless opportunities for studies of disease association. Given the number of potentially identifiable genetic markers and the multitude of clinical outcomes to which these may be linked, the testing and validation of statistical hypotheses in genetic epidemiology is a task of unprecedented scale. Meta-analysis provides a quantitative approach for combining the results of various studies on the same topic, and for estimating and explaining their diversity. Here, we have evaluated by meta-analysis 370 studies addressing 36 genetic associations for various outcomes of disease. We show that significant between-study heterogeneity (diversity) is frequent, and that the results of the first study correlate only modestly with subsequent research on the same association. The first study often suggests a stronger genetic effect than is found by subsequent studies. Both bias and genuine population diversity might explain why early association studies tend to overestimate the disease protection or predisposition conferred by a genetic polymorphism. We conclude that a systematic meta-analytic approach may assist in estimating population-wide effects of genetic risk factors in human disease.     

A robust statistical method for case-control association testing with copy number variation

Copy number variation (CNV) is pervasive in the human genome and can play a causal role in genetic diseases. The functional impact of CNV cannot be fully captured through linkage disequilibrium with SNPs. These observations motivate the development of statistical methods for performing direct CNV association studies. We show through simulation that current tests for CNV association are prone to false-positive associations in the presence of differential errors between cases and controls, especially if quantitative CNV measurements are noisy. We present a statistical framework for performing case-control CNV association studies that applies likelihood ratio testing of quantitative CNV measurements in cases and controls. We show that our methods are robust to differential errors and noisy data and can achieve maximal theoretical power. We illustrate the power of these methods for testing for association with binary and quantitative traits, and have made this software available as the R package CNVtools.     

The common PPARgamma Pro12Ala polymorphism is associated with decreased risk of type 2 diabetes

Genetic association studies are viewed as problematic and plagued by irreproducibility. Many associations have been reported for type 2 diabetes, but none have been confirmed in multiple samples and with comprehensive controls. We evaluated 16 published genetic associations to type 2 diabetes and related sub-phenotypes using a family-based design to control for population stratification, and replication samples to increase power. We were able to confirm only one association, that of the common Pro12Ala polymorphism in peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-gamma(PPARgamma) with type 2 diabetes. By analysing over 3,000 individuals, we found a modest (1.25-fold) but significant (P=0.002) increase in diabetes risk associated with the more common proline allele (85% frequency). Moreover, our results resolve a controversy about common variation in PPARgamma. An initial study found a threefold effect, but four of five subsequent publications failed to confirm the association. All six studies are consistent with the odds ratio we describe. The data implicate inherited variation in PPARgamma in the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes. Because the risk allele occurs at such high frequency, its modest effect translates into a large population attributable risk-influencing as much as 25% of type 2 diabetes in the general population.     

Meta-analysis of genetic association studies supports a contribution of common variants to susceptibility to common disease

Association studies offer a potentially powerful approach to identify genetic variants that influence susceptibility to common disease, but are plagued by the impression that they are not consistently reproducible. In principle, the inconsistency may be due to false positive studies, false negative studies or true variability in association among different populations. The critical question is whether false positives overwhelmingly explain the inconsistency. We analyzed 301 published studies covering 25 different reported associations. There was a large excess of studies replicating the first positive reports, inconsistent with the hypothesis of no true positive associations (P < 10(-14)). This excess of replications could not be reasonably explained by publication bias and was concentrated among 11 of the 25 associations. For 8 of these 11 associations, pooled analysis of follow-up studies yielded statistically significant replication of the first report, with modest estimated genetic effects. Thus, a sizable fraction (but under half) of reported associations have strong evidence of replication; for these, false negative, underpowered studies probably contribute to inconsistent replication. We conclude that there are probably many common variants in the human genome with modest but real effects on common disease risk, and that studies using large samples will convincingly identify such variants.     

A unified mixed-model method for association mapping that accounts for multiple levels of relatedness

As population structure can result in spurious associations, it has constrained the use of association studies in human and plant genetics. Association mapping, however, holds great promise if true signals of functional association can be separated from the vast number of false signals generated by population structure. We have developed a unified mixed-model approach to account for multiple levels of relatedness simultaneously as detected by random genetic markers. We applied this new approach to two samples: a family-based sample of 14 human families, for quantitative gene expression dissection, and a sample of 277 diverse maize inbred lines with complex familial relationships and population structure, for quantitative trait dissection. Our method demonstrates improved control of both type I and type II error rates over other methods. As this new method crosses the boundary between family-based and structured association samples, it provides a powerful complement to currently available methods for association mapping.     

Admixture mapping for hypertension loci with genome-scan markers

Identification of genetic variants that contribute to risk of hypertension is challenging. As a complement to linkage and candidate gene association studies, we carried out admixture mapping using genome-scan microsatellite markers among the African American participants in the US National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute's Family Blood Pressure Program. This population was assumed to have experienced recent admixture from ancestral groups originating in Africa and Europe. We used a set of unrelated individuals from Nigeria to represent the African ancestral population and used the European Americans in the Family Blood Pressure Program to provide estimates of allele frequencies for the European ancestors. We genotyped a common set of 269 microsatellite markers in the three groups at the same laboratory. The distribution of marker location-specific African ancestry, based on multipoint analysis, was shifted upward in hypertensive cases versus normotensive controls, consistent with linkage to genes conferring susceptibility. This shift was largely due to a small number of loci, including five adjacent markers on chromosome 6q and two on chromosome 21q. These results suggest that chromosome 6q24 and 21q21 may contain genes influencing risk of hypertension in African Americans.     

Principal components analysis corrects for stratification in genome-wide association studies

Population stratification--allele frequency differences between cases and controls due to systematic ancestry differences-can cause spurious associations in disease studies. We describe a method that enables explicit detection and correction of population stratification on a genome-wide scale. Our method uses principal components analysis to explicitly model ancestry differences between cases and controls. The resulting correction is specific to a candidate marker's variation in frequency across ancestral populations, minimizing spurious associations while maximizing power to detect true associations. Our simple, efficient approach can easily be applied to disease studies with hundreds of thousands of markers.     

Meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies of asthma in ethnically diverse North American populations

Asthma is a common disease with a complex risk architecture including both genetic and environmental factors. We performed a meta-analysis of North American genome-wide association studies of asthma in 5,416 individuals with asthma (cases) including individuals of European American, African American or African Caribbean, and Latino ancestry, with replication in an additional 12,649 individuals from the same ethnic groups. We identified five susceptibility loci. Four were at previously reported loci on 17q21, near IL1RL1, TSLP and IL33, but we report for the first time, to our knowledge, that these loci are associated with asthma risk in three ethnic groups. In addition, we identified a new asthma susceptibility locus at PYHIN1, with the association being specific to individuals of African descent (P = 3.9 × 10(-9)). These results suggest that some asthma susceptibility loci are robust to differences in ancestry when sufficiently large samples sizes are investigated, and that ancestry-specific associations also contribute to the complex genetic architecture of asthma.     

Genome-wide association study identifies five loci associated with susceptibility to pancreatic cancer in Chinese populations

Pancreatic cancer has the lowest survival rate among human cancers, and there are no effective markers for its screening and early diagnosis. To identify genetic susceptibility markers for this cancer, we carried out a genome-wide association study on 981 individuals with pancreatic cancer (cases) and 1,991 cancer-free controls of Chinese descent using 666,141 autosomal SNPs. Promising associations were replicated in an additional 2,603 pancreatic cancer cases and 2,877 controls recruited from 25 hospitals in 16 provinces or cities in China. We identified five new susceptibility loci at chromosomes 21q21.3, 5p13.1, 21q22.3, 22q13.32 and 10q26.11 (P = 2.24 × 10(-13) to P = 4.18 × 10(-10)) in addition to 13q22.1 previously reported in populations of European ancestry. These results advance our understanding of the development of pancreatic cancer and highlight potential targets for the prevention or treatment of this cancer.     

A genome-wide association study identifies two new lung cancer susceptibility loci at 13q12.12 and 22q12.2 in Han Chinese

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide. To identify genetic factors that modify the risk of lung cancer in individuals of Chinese ancestry, we performed a genome-wide association scan in 5,408 subjects (2,331 individuals with lung cancer (cases) and 3,077 controls) followed by a two-stage validation among 12,722 subjects (6,313 cases and 6,409 controls). The combined analyses identified six well-replicated SNPs with independent effects and significant lung cancer associations (P < 5.0 × 10(-8)) located in TP63 (rs4488809 at 3q28, P = 7.2 × 10(-26)), TERT-CLPTM1L (rs465498 and rs2736100 at 5p15.33, P = 1.2 × 10(-20) and P = 1.0 × 10(-27), respectively), MIPEP-TNFRSF19 (rs753955 at 13q12.12, P = 1.5 × 10(-12)) and MTMR3-HORMAD2-LIF (rs17728461 and rs36600 at 22q12.2, P = 1.1 × 10(-11) and P = 6.2 × 10(-13), respectively). Two of these loci (13q12.12 and 22q12.2) were newly identified in the Chinese population. These results suggest that genetic variants in 3q28, 5p15.33, 13q12.12 and 22q12.2 may contribute to the susceptibility of lung cancer in Han Chinese.     

A genome-wide association meta-analysis identifies new childhood obesity loci

Multiple genetic variants have been associated with adult obesity and a few with severe obesity in childhood; however, less progress has been made in establishing genetic influences on common early-onset obesity. We performed a North American, Australian and European collaborative meta-analysis of 14 studies consisting of 5,530 cases (≥95th percentile of body mass index (BMI)) and 8,318 controls (<50th percentile of BMI) of European ancestry. Taking forward the eight newly discovered signals yielding association with P < 5 × 10(-6) in nine independent data sets (2,818 cases and 4,083 controls), we observed two loci that yielded genome-wide significant combined P values near OLFM4 at 13q14 (rs9568856; P = 1.82 × 10(-9); odds ratio (OR) = 1.22) and within HOXB5 at 17q21 (rs9299; P = 3.54 × 10(-9); OR = 1.14). Both loci continued to show association when two extreme childhood obesity cohorts were included (2,214 cases and 2,674 controls). These two loci also yielded directionally consistent associations in a previous meta-analysis of adult BMI(1).     

Meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies identifies eight new loci for type 2 diabetes in east Asians

We conducted a three-stage genetic study to identify susceptibility loci for type 2 diabetes (T2D) in east Asian populations. We followed our stage 1 meta-analysis of eight T2D genome-wide association studies (6,952 cases with T2D and 11,865 controls) with a stage 2 in silico replication analysis (5,843 cases and 4,574 controls) and a stage 3 de novo replication analysis (12,284 cases and 13,172 controls). The combined analysis identified eight new T2D loci reaching genome-wide significance, which mapped in or near GLIS3, PEPD, FITM2-R3HDML-HNF4A, KCNK16, MAEA, GCC1-PAX4, PSMD6 and ZFAND3. GLIS3, which is involved in pancreatic beta cell development and insulin gene expression, is known for its association with fasting glucose levels. The evidence of an association with T2D for PEPD and HNF4A has been shown in previous studies. KCNK16 may regulate glucose-dependent insulin secretion in the pancreas. These findings, derived from an east Asian population, provide new perspectives on the etiology of T2D.     

Common variants on 8p12 and 1q24.2 confer risk of schizophrenia

Schizophrenia is a severe mental disorder affecting ～1% of the world population, with heritability of up to 80%. To identify new common genetic risk factors, we performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in the Han Chinese population. The discovery sample set consisted of 3,750 individuals with schizophrenia and 6,468 healthy controls (1,578 cases and 1,592 controls from northern Han Chinese, 1,238 cases and 2,856 controls from central Han Chinese, and 934 cases and 2,020 controls from the southern Han Chinese). We further analyzed the strongest association signals in an additional independent cohort of 4,383 cases and 4,539 controls from the Han Chinese population. Meta-analysis identified common SNPs that associated with schizophrenia with genome-wide significance on 8p12 (rs16887244, P = 1.27 × 10(-10)) and 1q24.2 (rs10489202, P = 9.50 × 10(-9)). Our findings provide new insights into the pathogenesis of schizophrenia.     

Genome-wide strategies for detecting multiple loci that influence complex diseases

After nearly 10 years of intense academic and commercial research effort, large genome-wide association studies for common complex diseases are now imminent. Although these conditions involve a complex relationship between genotype and phenotype, including interactions between unlinked loci, the prevailing strategies for analysis of such studies focus on the locus-by-locus paradigm. Here we consider analytical methods that explicitly look for statistical interactions between loci. We show first that they are computationally feasible, even for studies of hundreds of thousands of loci, and second that even with a conservative correction for multiple testing, they can be more powerful than traditional analyses under a range of models for interlocus interactions. We also show that plausible variations across populations in allele frequencies among interacting loci can markedly affect the power to detect their marginal effects, which may account in part for the well-known difficulties in replicating association results. These results suggest that searching for interactions among genetic loci can be fruitfully incorporated into analysis strategies for genome-wide association studies.     

Systematic meta-analyses and field synopsis of genetic association studies in schizophrenia: the SzGene database

In an effort to pinpoint potential genetic risk factors for schizophrenia, research groups worldwide have published over 1,000 genetic association studies with largely inconsistent results. To facilitate the interpretation of these findings, we have created a regularly updated online database of all published genetic association studies for schizophrenia ('SzGene'). For all polymorphisms having genotype data available in at least four independent case-control samples, we systematically carried out random-effects meta-analyses using allelic contrasts. Across 118 meta-analyses, a total of 24 genetic variants in 16 different genes (APOE, COMT, DAO, DRD1, DRD2, DRD4, DTNBP1, GABRB2, GRIN2B, HP, IL1B, MTHFR, PLXNA2, SLC6A4, TP53 and TPH1) showed nominally significant effects with average summary odds ratios of approximately 1.23. Seven of these variants had not been previously meta-analyzed. According to recently proposed criteria for the assessment of cumulative evidence in genetic association studies, four of the significant results can be characterized as showing 'strong' epidemiological credibility. Our project represents the first comprehensive online resource for systematically synthesized and graded evidence of genetic association studies in schizophrenia. As such, it could serve as a model for field synopses of genetic associations in other common and genetically complex disorders.     

Including known covariates can reduce power to detect genetic effects in case-control studies

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) search for associations between genetic variants and disease status, typically via logistic regression. Often there are covariates, such as sex or well-established major genetic factors, that are known to affect disease susceptibility and are independent of tested genotypes at the population level. We show theoretically and with data from recent GWAS on multiple sclerosis, psoriasis and ankylosing spondylitis that inclusion of known covariates can substantially reduce power for the identification of associated variants when the disease prevalence is lower than a few percent. Whether the inclusion of such covariates reduces or increases power to detect genetic effects depends on various factors, including the prevalence of the disease studied. When the disease is common (prevalence of >20%), the inclusion of covariates typically increases power, whereas, for rarer diseases, it can often decrease power to detect new genetic associations.     

Genome-wide association study identifies 12 new susceptibility loci for primary biliary cirrhosis

In addition to the HLA locus, six genetic risk factors for primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) have been identified in recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS). To identify additional loci, we carried out a GWAS using 1,840 cases from the UK PBC Consortium and 5,163 UK population controls as part of the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium 3 (WTCCC3). We followed up 28 loci in an additional UK cohort of 620 PBC cases and 2,514 population controls. We identified 12 new susceptibility loci (at a genome-wide significance level of P < 5 × 10??) and replicated all previously associated loci. We identified three further new loci in a meta-analysis of data from our study and previously published GWAS results. New candidate genes include STAT4, DENND1B, CD80, IL7R, CXCR5, TNFRSF1A, CLEC16A and NFKB1. This study has considerably expanded our knowledge of the genetic architecture of PBC.     

Demonstrating stratification in a European American population

Population stratification occurs in case-control association studies when allele frequencies differ between cases and controls because of ancestry. Stratification may lead to false positive associations, although this issue remains controversial. Empirical studies have found little evidence of stratification in European-derived populations, but potentially significant levels of stratification could not be ruled out. We studied a European American panel discordant for height, a heritable trait that varies widely across Europe. Genotyping 178 SNPs and applying standard analytical methods yielded no evidence of stratification. But a SNP in the gene LCT that varies widely in frequency across Europe was strongly associated with height (P < 10(-6)). This apparent association was largely or completely due to stratification; rematching individuals on the basis of European ancestry greatly reduced the apparent association, and no association was observed in Polish or Scandinavian individuals. The failure of standard methods to detect this stratification indicates that new methods may be required.