创新驱动升级的SD建模和策略的反馈仿真组合分析——以江西合力有限公司创新升级为例

中国正在全面推进创新发展战略,创新系统是一个动态的复杂系统,创新策略如何作用于系统结构及效果需进行深入的仿真研究.通过对江西合力有限公司技术创新活动分析,运用逐树设撤关联数结构行为检验建模法,建立可靠性高的六棵流率基本入树模型及等价流图仿真模型.新引入图论的关联矩阵算法,计算得到复杂系统的三十三条反馈环.然后,结合实际设置仿真调控参数变化区间,进行反馈结构和策略仿真的关联分析.结果表明:定量实施"提高创新投融资力度、提升创新人才支撑能力、深化产学研合作"三条发展策略,能够有效促进企业升级.此为企业科技创新发展提供了决策依据,并有效验证和实施了SD建模、反馈环新算法、策略仿真与反馈结构组合分析新方法.     

工业园区企业安全生产达标策略选择演化研究——基于溢出效应视角

针对工业园区企业生产安全事故频发的问题，考虑"一刀切停产整顿"管制产生的负外部溢出效应、事故损失负外部溢出效应对企业安全生产达标策略选择的影响.运用计算实验方法，抽象出政府安监部门、园区企业、服务机构以及园区管理方四类主体，构建多主体参与下安全生产达标策略选择的计算实验模型.实验结果表明：随着事故发生后管制负外部溢出效应的增加，企业选择安全生产托管和自主达标的意愿增强，但是超越一定临界值时企业更偏好于选择等待观望的策略；另外随着事故损失负外部溢出效应的增加，企业更偏向于选择以等待观望应对复杂的市场环境.政府相关部门应考虑工业园区的特殊性，合理采取"一刀切停产整顿"的措施，引导安全生产资源实力弱的企业购买安全生产托管服务.     

并购后销售服务网络的优化问题

研究的是企业横向并购后的销售服务网络的优化集成问题,文章以两个公司的横向并购为例,构造了可变策略下的系统优化模型.算法设计思想是:对待合并后的销售服务网络,采用"休克"式设计程序,暂时对所有的销售服务网点"视而不见".假设每个销售服务网点的运营能力相同,那么,所要研究的问题即转化为:在现有客户条件下,若一个销售服务中心可以为k个用户提供服务,求,如何确定客户销售服务中心的关系以使得销售服务中心总的效率最高.基于这种策略,文章给出了问题的优化模型及其求解算法,同时分析了该算法的时间复杂性.所得到结果与已有的研究结果具有较强的互补性.     

供应链中耐用品的广告投入和零售价策略分析

针对供应链中制造商和零售商关于耐用商品的合作广告和零售价定价问题,本文构建了一个微分博弈模型. 将市场累计销售量作为状态变量,并把广告和价格因素引入到市场累计销售量的动态方程中. 运用汉密尔顿-雅可比-贝尔曼方程,分别得到了零售商的最优定价和广告投入策略以及制造商对零售商广告成本的最优分担比例;发现零售商的最优定价和制造商的分担比例均为常数,而零售商的广告投入随市场累计销售量的增加而递减;并且给出了制造商对零售商进行广告补贴的阈值. 最后,给出了各厂商决策变量的比较静态分析.     

消费者风险厌恶下的期权预售模型研究

在预售交易中可能会发生实物价值与消费者估值相差较大的情况,使消费者在选择预售时存在很大的风险.为了避免这种风险,将期权理论引入到预售策略中,建立期权预售模型,求解出最优订购量和最优期权执行价格,并与普通预售策略进行对比.研究发现消费者的估值范围和批发价格均存在某个临界值是零售商选择预售策略的关键,当估值范围或批发价格大于该临界值时,期权预售策略优于普通预售策略,且消费者风险厌恶系数越大,期权预售的优势就越明显.     

The importance of multimedia principle and emergence principle for the knowledge civilisation age

The paper discusses two basic principles derived from results of studies concerning foundations of micro-theories of knowledge creation; these are Multimedia Principle and Emergence Principle. Their epistemic, systemic and metaphysical importance is discussed, together with their relations to the episteme of technology treated as a separate cultural sphere. A spiral of evolutionary knowledge creation is presented, in which an extended Falsification Principle plays the role of an objectifying feedback; this spiral is related to an episteme of Evolutionary Constructive Objectivism proposed earlier for the coming knowledge civilisation age.     

一种基于云理论的组织绩效评估方法

组织绩效评估中存在着大量的定性指标,如何实现定性描述向定量表示的转换,使得评估更加科学与精确,变得越来越迫切。云理论是在对传统模糊集理论和概率理论进行交叉渗透的基础上,形成自然语言值表示的某个定性概念与其定量表示之间的不确定转换模型。本文通过引入云理论中的云重心评价法,实现了定性概念向定量表示的合理转换,进而对组织的整体绩效做出综合评价。通过实例分析,验证了该方法的可行性与科学性。     

基于在线算法的季节性产品降价策略

针对季节性产品销售时间有限, 需求难以预测的特性, 从在线策略与竞争分析的角度, 为销售商设计了不同情形下的降价策略, 并证明了所给策略具有最优竞争比; 针对允许多次降价情形, 分析了降价次数与竞争比的关系, 为制定可行降价次数提供了依据. 通过数值算例, 验证了所给策略的可行性与有效性.     

Systemic Thinking and Practice Toward Facilitating Inclusive Education: Reflections on a Case of Co-Generated Knowledge and Action in South Africa

This article offers our reflections around a case of facilitating systemic thinking and practice in which the first author of the article (Tlale) interacted with research participants/participant researchers with the intention of strengthening systemic thought and action toward fostering inclusive education in the setting (a rural school in the Eastern Cape in South Africa). We reflect upon the process and also how our engagement was perceived by participants, as expressed in feedback received from them. We point to how Tlale introduced the idea of systemic thinking (to teachers, school management team, school governing body, and a district officer for the district) as tied to the possibility of acting to generate transformation toward a more inclusive educational context for the benefit of the learners at the school in question, thus acting as a systemic mediator on their behalf.     

A Type of Language Field Integrated Algorithm Used for Analysis and Control of Complicated System

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网络外部性下零售商市场策略演化博弈分析

运用演化博弈理论,构建了网络外部性环境下的不对称双群体演化博弈模型,分析了具有有限理性的零售商在长期的市场演化中,会如何选择最适合其生存的市场策略的问题.首先,假设零售商有两种市场策略:数量策略和价格策略,并在网络外部性环境下建立了零售商在不同市场策略下的演化博弈模型.其次,在产品具有替代互补性和网络外部性下讨论了动态系统的稳定性,发现在一定的条件下,价格策略和数量策略均可以成为系统的演化稳定点.再次,分析了网络外部性、产品的替代/互补性和市场规模对演化稳定点的吸引域的影响,发现网络外部性、产品替代/互补性和市场规模的变化均会影响到系统的演化路径.最后,通过数值算例,进一步验证和分析了所取得的理论成果.     

The Forced Growth of Social Production System by Technology and the Realization

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基于定性比较分析的企业跨国技术并购模式与绩效

采用清晰集定性比较分析方法，分析了58起跨国技术并购样本，研究了我国企业技术能力、与目标企业的技术相似性、文化距离、跨国并购整合经验、整合程度对跨国技术并购创新绩效的影响机理，得到4种我国企业跨国技术并购的成功模式，分别是实力驱动型、稳中求进型、扬长避短型和风险对冲型。研究结果表明：当并购模式和整合策略选择合理时，不同技术能力的企业在跨国并购活动中都能取得较好的创新绩效。     

区域技术创新生态经济系统失调及其实现平衡的途径

根据生态经济学理论、技术创新理论和区域发展理论,运用系统分析的方法,结合我国区域技术创新研究现状,提出了区域技术创新生态经济系统（RTIES）概念,探讨了RTIES的组成剖析了RTIES失调的原因,并提出了一些实现RTIES平衡的途径.本文的研究对实现从传统技术创新到生态技术创新过渡提供了理论依据,对推动我国循环经济发展起着一定的作用.     

Insights into Operationalizing Communities of Practice from SSM-Based Inquiry Processes

Two systemic inquiries, based on soft systems methodology (SSM), into the potential for using community of practice (CoP) theory by an Australian-government created research and development corporation to change its knowledge management (KM) strategy, are reported. Key staff were engaged in the inquiry into how to build a third-order KM strategy based on CoPs; an exploration of key published work on CoPs yielded four SSM activity models—‘being a community practice system’; ‘doing the work of imagination sub-system’; ‘doing the work of alignment sub-system’ and ‘doing the work of engagement sub-system’. These models can be used as heuristics to aid the purposeful design of CoPs in other settings. SSM, enacted as a systemic inquiry, can be understood as a form of systemic action research, which was well equipped to deal with CoP theory and, when enacted participatively, can generate important systemic insights. The inquiry began the process of fostering an appreciation of third order KM but, on the evidence available, did not lead to on-going commitment to a CoPs-based KM strategy. Future research should acknowledge how the framing of research situations influences the research process, the importance of the design of practice change settings and the limited evidence for purposeful interventions leading to successful CoPs.     

Two Imperatives for Qualitative Research

For sound qualitative research, adhering to at least two major imperatives is vital. The first imperative, obtaining the own expression of the people involved and affected to enable working from their frame of reference as well, and not only from the frame of reference of the researcher, corresponds to the objective in qualitative research to explicate the subject's interpretation of social reality. The second imperative, obtaining an holistic as possible expression, which implies working with the rich diversity of the people involved and affected, corresponds to the fact that social reality engages different people and that the researcher has consequently to deal with the ensuing kaleidoscope of knowledge, perceptions and interrelationships. Acknowledging the need for the two imperatives is but a first step, and from their practical work, the authors share some suggestions on how to purposefully progress toward meeting both imperatives in conducting qualitative analysis.     

基于相关反馈学习的三维目标检索算法

针对三维目标(3D object)检索问题,提出了一种基于混合描述符及多支持向量机融合相关反馈学习的3D目标检索方法。在分析现行3D模型检索方法的基础上,提出了混合描述符H_D及相关反馈学习的总体思路。讨论了H_D框架构建,即在光场图像阵列自适应聚类基础上,分别实现H_D各个子描述符。讨论了基于多支持向量机的融合分类学习机制,并将其用于3D目标检索反馈学习环节,对H_D检索性能及相关反馈学习分类进行了实验分析,结果表明所提出的方法是有效的。     

考虑零售商销售努力的供应链融资决策均衡

零售商的销售努力不仅影响供应链资金的支出,而且直接影响到供应链的需求端;但目前并未得到供应链金融研究的足够重视.为此,本文将零售商的销售努力和供应链的运营融资问题相结合,并内生于供应链模型;进而研究资金不足的零售商分别通过银行贷款和股权融资时,供应链的最优运营策略和融资策略,以及零售商融资方式的选择.研究结果表明,初始资金水平对供应链均衡决策及其收益影响很大,有限的初始资金严重制约了零售商的销售努力水平,降低了供应链的运作效率;融资服务能够在一定程度上缓解有限资金的约束,并影响供链的决策均衡,但不同融资方式的影响不同;当零售商进行融资时,若初始资金水平极低,应通过股权融资的方式进行融资,随着初始资金水平的上升,零售商应该选择银行贷款的方式进行融资.     

基于避险行为的银行间网络系统性风险传染研究

建立了一个基于避险行为的银行间网络模型,研究了异质性网络结构和异质性银行资产条件下流动性囤积避险行为、折价出售避险行为以及避险行为叠加对系统性风险传染的影响。结果表明,流动性囤积在初始阶段减缓了系统性风险传染,折价出售没有延缓系统性风险传染,而避险行为的叠加从整体上加剧了系统性风险传染。考虑避险行为时,异质性网络稳定性强于同质性网络,不考虑避险行为时,同质性的随机网络更加稳定。最后,银行资产异质性对系统性风险传染没有显著影响。     

Systemic Risk Contagion of Interbank Network Based on Risk-Averse Behaviors北大核心CSCD

We build an interbank network model based on risk-averse behaviors. On a heterogeneous network structure, we explore the relationship between risk-averse behaviors of banks and systemic risk contagion, specifically, liquidity hoarding, fire sales behaviors and the composition of risk-averse behaviors. The simulation results show that liquidity hoarding behaviors mitigate systemic risk contagion at early stage, fire sales behaviors have little effect on mitigating systemic risk contagion and the composition of risk-averse behaviors exacerbate the systemic risk contagion. Heterogeneous network is more robust than the homogenous network if risk-averse behaviors exist, otherwise the homogeneous network is more stable. Furthermore, bank asset heterogeneity has no significant effect on systemic risk contagion. © 2017, The Journal of Agency of Complex Systems and Complexity Science. All right reserved.