Systemic Analysis of the Brazilian Production Chain of Semiconductors: Graphic Representation and Leverage Points

The purpose of this article is to analyze systemically the Brazilian production chain of semiconductors. The specific objectives of this article are to represent the chain systemically and to identify key variables and leverage points that can increase the overall performance of the semiconductor industry. The research method is qualitative modelling. Eleven practitioners of the industry answered a questionnaire approaching various aspects of the semiconductor industry in Brazil. By a systemic approach, the complex behavior present in the industry was considered. By content analysis, we identified patterns in the speech of the respondents. Texts fragments allowed the identification of key themes and variables present in the system. The association among key variables and complex behavior helped to build a systemic structure, aimed at representing the main relationships in the system. From the systemic structure, eight leverage points were identified and discussed. The key implications of the findings are the damage that cheap imports make in the local market; the need of strong public policies that include more than tax reduction, but also local conditions, like clusters or technological parks, for the high-tech manufacture; and the promotion of conditions that stimulate private investment in the industry.     

Embracing the Complexity: Surfacing Problem Situations with Multiple Actors of the Pineapple Value Chain in Uganda

The complexity of local situations in which agricultural value chains are enacted requires a systemic understanding when seeking to improve interlinked livelihoods. Studying the fresh pineapple value chain in Uganda offers an illustrative example. Individually negotiated and context-specific actor relationships, along with their connected activities can be revealed by conceptualizing the chain as a purposeful human activity system. We followed a systems learning approach to elicit value chain actors’ perspectives on factors influencing their activities while surfacing relevant problem situations, resolutions and constraints. Participatory methods, including cognitive mapping, were used to spark dialogue during meetings with only farmers, traders and brokers and also with mixed groups. The results present the multiple natural, technical and social factors identified by value chain actors leading to losses and benefits to their income. System driving and shaping influences included infrastructure, seasonality, perishability and weather conditions. Process-oriented analysis of multi-stakeholder discussions revealed feedback cycles related to fragmentation of the chain. This resulted from and contributed to problematic communication, price fluctuations and challenges in actor relations. For example, actors proposed uniform pricing and debated the implications. Although the systemic perspective brought forward actors’ awareness of potential benefits of improved collaboration and recognition of interdependent activities, it also exposed barriers. Participatory systems learning helped to capture actors’ room of maneuver, and can support processes towards actor-driven change.     

Place Marketing and Management: A Complex Adaptive Systems View. The Strategic Planning of the City of Avellino,Italy

The objective of this work is to contribute to place management and marketing studies by looking at the territory, as a complex adaptive system aiming to reach a dynamic equilibrium—a steady state. According to this approach, the territorial system emerges as a result of its capacity, its social actors and governance, and the analysis, creation and maintenance of relationships—the dynamics—between the territory components, both tangible and intangible ones, and its many and varied stakeholders. These relational dynamics produce continuous and reciprocal adaptive behaviours among social actors who determine, influence, and adapt the vision of the territory. Through an interdisciplinary approach, we evaluate the recent literature on town planning and geography, aiming to bridge the gap in place management and marketing literature. We propose a framework based on systemic and complexity theory and propose a novel approach that supports decision makers in modelling the future scenario, taking choices regarding place management and place marketing.     

Science of winning soccer: Emergent pattern-forming dynamics in association football

Quantitative analysis is increasingly being used in team sports to better understand performance in these stylized, delineated, complex social systems. Here, the authors provide a first step toward understanding the pattern-forming dynamics that emerge from collective offensive and defensive behavior in team sports. The authors propose a novel method of analysis that captures how teams occupy sub-areas of the field as the ball changes location. The authors use this method to analyze a game of association football (soccer) based upon a hypothesis that local player numerical dominance is key to defensive stability and offensive opportunity. The authors find that the teams consistently allocated more players than their opponents in sub-areas of play closer to their own goal. This is consistent with a predominantly defensive strategy intended to prevent yielding even a single goal. The authors also find differences between the two teams’ strategies: while both adopted the same distribution of defensive, midfield, and attacking players (a 4: 3: 3 system of play), one team was significantly more effective in maintaining both defensive and offensive numerical dominance for defensive stability and offensive opportunity. That team indeed won the match with an advantage of one goal (2 to 1) but the analysis shows the advantage in play was more pervasive than the single goal victory would indicate. The proposed focus on the local dynamics of team collective behavior is distinct from the traditional focus on individual player capability. It supports a broader view in which specific player abilities contribute within the context of the dynamics of multiplayer team coordination and coaching strategy. By applying this complex system analysis to association football, the authors can understand how players’ and teams’ strategies result in successful and unsuccessful relationships between teammates and opponents in the area of play.     

COMPLEX ECO-ECONOMY SYSTEM

In the past there were a lot of researches on the topic of economic growth. Nevertheless, the environment has been a bit abstracted by standard economics. Scarce natural resources and our choices to protect them or exploit them jointly determine the economic and environmental systems. In this paper we describe a model with a particular focus on the relationship among income, pollution, and non-renewable resources. We want to combine both economic and environmental sectors. The system dynamics approach is used in analyzing these complex relationships. This paper gives an insight into the possibilities for replacing non-renewable resources with more renewable ones. Next, we present the simulation runs of the model that are conducted with the help of existing system dynamics modeling tools. Only the relationships simulated so far between the variables ought to be put under yet more cautious examination.     

Systemic Cognition During the Sub-Prime Crisis: Lessons and Research Implications

This paper uses the example of the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008?C2009 to demonstrate how patterns of systemic cognition influenced outcomes during the crisis. This paper focuses on systemic patterns that emerged during the sub-prime crisis. By reviewing systemic patterns and reflecting on the assumptions of actors it is believed that further insight for research potential could be revealed. I argue that patterns of systemic ??cognition?? that emerge during complex social events can be captured and reflected on. This provides useful insight into the interpretative structures of messy problems that in turn reveals previously undiscovered systemic thinking. The paper uses this illustration of the GFC to structure a debate about future research possibilities.     

The Actions of Mahabharat (an Indian Epic): An Analysis from Action Science Perspective

This paper analyses the actions of Mahabharat from the point of view of action science. From the point of view of action science, the source of the problem of Mahabharat is the undiscussable issue of who should be the king of Hastinapur. The paper then analyses the actions of different actors of this epic. It concludes that Yudhishthir displays the Model I governing value of ‘minimize generating or expressing negative feelings’. Duryodhan displays the Model I governing value of ‘maximize winning and minimize losing’. Vidur, Bhishm and Dronacharya display the Model I governing value of ‘be rational’. Together these actors create the ‘limited learning system’ of Model O-I. The primary inhibitory loops created by this limited learning system finally lead to secondary inhibitory loop of polarisation of different actors into two groups and the emergence of win-lose group dynamics in the form of war as the only action which can settle the original undiscussable issue of who should be the king of Hastinapur.     

Diagnosis of Organizational Soft Problems in a Peruvian Financial Institution by Systemic Thinking

Managing financial institutions in an underdeveloped economic context has become a real challenge nowadays. In order to reach the organization’s planned goals, they have to deal with structural, behavioral and informational problems. From the systemic point of view, this situation gets even worse when the company does not present organizational boundaries and a cohesive identification for their stakeholders. Thus, European countries have some special financial lines in order to help the development of micro credit in Latin communities in an attempt to help the local economy. However, institutions like Caixa dos Andes in Peru present management problems when dealing with this complexity. Based on this, how can the systemic eye help in the diagnosis of soft problems of a Peruvian financial company? This study aims to diagnose soft problems of a Peruvian financial company based on soft variables like identity, communication and autonomy and also intends to identify possible ways to redesign its basic framework. The (VSM––Viable System Model) method from Beer (1967), applied in this diagnostic study, was used in a practical way as a management tool for organizations’ analysis and planning. By describing the VSM’s five systems, the creation of a systemic vision or a total vision is possible, showing the organization’s complexity from the inside. Some company’s soft problems like double control, inefficient use of physical and human resources, low information flows, slowness, etc. The VSM presented an organizational diagnosis indicating effective solutions that do integrate its five systems.     

“It was Hard to Come to Mutual Understanding …”—The Multidimensionality of Social Learning Processes Concerned with Sustainable Natural Resource Use in India, Africa and Latin America

Sustainable natural resource use requires that multiple actors reassess their situation in a systemic perspective. This can be conceptualised as a social learning process between actors from rural communities and the experts from outside organisations. A specifically designed workshop oriented towards a systemic view of natural resource use and the enhancement of mutual learning between local and external actors, provided the background for evaluating the potentials and constraints of intensified social learning processes. Case studies in rural communities in India, Bolivia, Peru and Mali showed that changes in the narratives of the participants of the workshop followed a similar temporal sequence relatively independently from their specific contexts. Social learning processes were found to be more likely to be successful if they 1) opened new space for communicative action, allowing for an intersubjective re-definition of the present situation, 2) contributed to rebalance the relationships between social capital and social, emotional and cognitive competencies within and between local and external actors.     

Practical Contributions of the Systems-Based Evolutionary Learning Laboratory to Knowledge and Stakeholder Management

This paper reports on a case study on improving the quality of life for women smallholder farmers in Vietnam, using the systems-based Evolutionary Learning Laboratory (ELLab) approach. The study aims to provide evidence of practical contributions of the ELLab to project stakeholder and knowledge management through the case study. A transformative learning framework was developed to provide initial reflections on the planning phase of the project. Practical contributions of the ELLab process to stakeholder identification and management, and knowledge creation during project planning and implementation are discussed. Strong evidence was found of transformations in awareness and perspectives amongst project actors that subsequently led to systemic and executable action plans. This clearly proved the value of the ELLab approach in informal transformative learning.     

足球视频序列中球员的分割与跟踪算法

分割与跟踪一直是视频图像处理的一个热门问题。针对足球视频应用的需要,本文实现了一个快速的球员分割与跟踪算法。根据颜色分量差值的统计信息,实现了球员的自动分割;通过归一化颜色直方图的相关性比较,辨识球员所属的球队;利用视频序列中球员的上下文特征,结合模板匹配方法,实现了球员的跟踪。实验结果表明,本文提出的跟踪算法很好地解决了不同球队队员的遮挡问题,并能处理多人遮挡情况,在球员形态变化较大时也能稳定地跟踪。     

Modeling soccer by means of relative phase

Soccer is a complex system. Therefore, appropriate (nontrivial) models have to be applied to be able to analyze the behavior of the teams on the pitch. This study analyzed the World Cup Final 2006 between France and Italy by means of relative phase. Mean longitudinal and lateral positions of all 20 outfield players were used to calculate relative phase by Hilbert transformation. Whole team-, group-, and attacker-fullbacks couplings showed that soccer is clearly an in-phase game. Perturbations of the relative phase structure helped to identify scoring opportunities of the attacking team. Moreover, analyses of the relative phase structure can help to understand the complexity of soccer.     

2010 BP Oil Spill and the Systemic Construct of the Gulf Coast Shrimp Supply Chain

On April 20, 2010, the blast on the rig Deepwater Horizon, and the ensuing disaster known as the BP oil spill, has disrupted the Gulf Coast Shrimp supply chain. Six elements of the systemic supply and demand side of that supply chain are identified and discussed. On the supply side are shrimpers, processors, wholesalers, retailers, and restaurants. On the demand side is the consumer. Qualitative investigative methods shed light upon the systemic practice within the gulf coast shrimp industry in the United States.     

System Dynamics Model of Financial and Monetary Mechanism

System dynamics model of financial and monetary mechanism are established on thebasic of qualitative research in financial and monetary theory,by applying system dynamics to finan-cial and monetary law of movement,development and change in economic system and simulating thislaw.With it,we can analyse the interrelations between finance and banking;analyse the quantityof money demanded by the economic system,determine the most desirable quantity of money de-     

供应链体系中外商直接投资对中国经济增长的影响与实证

外商直接投资是供应链环节中的重要主体. 论文在阐述外商直接投资在中国的状况及中国政府吸引外商直接投资所采取的政策与措施的基础上,运用极值边界分析模型（EBA）,基于对数据的相关分析与回归估计选择了3 个核心变量和5 个条件变量,对中国外商直接投资与经济增长之间的关系进行了实证分析. 结果表明：从长期来看,外商直接投资在一定程度上刺激中国经济增长,但这种刺激作用有限. 从各个分阶段看,外商直接投资对中国经济增长的促进作用是不确定的. 起步阶段与缓慢发展阶段,外商直接投资对中国经济增长的促进作用有限;快速发展阶段,外商直接投资能显著地促进中国经济增长. 这种结论上的不完全一致,表明外商直接投资对中国经济增长的影响是与中国国情及外商直接投资在中国发展态势息息相关的,是有时间特质的. 通过短期分析能更精确地反映外商直接投资对中国经济增长的动态影响,而长期分析消除了个别异常数据在短期的较大影响,从而体现动态影响的长期趋势,可见将短期与长期结合分析外商直接投资对中国经济增长的影响意义重大.     

Modeling and forecasting of stock markets under a system adaptation framework

This paper adopts the concept of dynamic feedback systems to model the behavior of financial markets,or more specifically,the stock market from a dynamic system point of view.Based on a feedback adaptation scheme,the authors model the movement of a stock market index within a framework that is composed of an internal dynamic model and an adaptive filter.The output-error model is adopted as the internal model whereas the adaptive filter is a time-varying state space model with instrumental variables.Its input-output behavior,and internal as well as external forces are then identified.Special attention has also been paid to the recent financial crisis by examining the movement of Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJIA) as an example to illustrate the advantage of the proposed framework.Supported by time-varying causality tests,five influential factors from economic and sentiment aspects are introduced as the input of this framework.Testing results show that the proposed framework has a much better prediction performance than the existing methods,especially in complicated economic situations.An application of this framework is also presented with focuses on forecasting the turning periods of the market trend.Realizing that a market trend is about to change when the external force begins to exhibit clear patterns in its frequency responses,the authors develop a set of rules to recognize this kind of clear patterns.These rules work well for stock indexes from US, China and Singapore.     

国际收支阶段演变的影响因素研究——基于有序logistic模型

一国国际收支平衡表及其构成不仅反映了这个国家目前所处的国际收支发展阶段,还反映出一国的资源稟赋、竞争力所在以及对外经济开放程度等.国际收支结构、阶段演变以及影响因素等问题研究有重要的现实意义和学术价值.本文首先基于传统"国际收支阶段假说",对国际收支阶段影响因素进行了机理分析;其次,根据国际收支发展阶段,对全球50个国家1998-2014年的国际收支数据进行阶段的实际划分;最后,在上述研究基础上引入有序logistic回归模型对国际收支阶段演变的影响因素进行实证分析.实证结果表明:第一,人均GDP对国际收支阶段演变具有显著的正向作用,这符合Crowther的国际收支阶段假说;第二,金融深化程度(M2/GDP)对国际收支阶段演变具有显著的正向作用,实际有效汇率指数对国际收支阶段演变具有显著的负向作用,这两个变量的显著性在已有文献中并未出现,是本文重要的创新和贡献点.     

中国电影圈主要导演和演员合作网络的结构特征分析

运用社会网络分析方法,对中国电影圈近十年(2004—2013年)主要的导演和演员之间的合作网络进行了描述和分析。以导演为中心,运用双模网络分析方法,对导演和演员之间的合作关系进行了系统的描述,比较了在不同时期港台导演(演员)和大陆演员(导演)之间的合作情况,分析了电影江湖的"派系"关系。结果表明:1)导演—演员双模网络的分析发现,近十年来大陆和香港的导演-演员合作网络结构存在明显差异,相比于大陆导演,香港导演更倾向于与同一批演员反复合作;而纵向看来,近十年来,香港导演表现出越来越多地与大陆演员合作的趋势。2)导演与演员的合作网络关系十分稀疏,网络密度只有0.026。"成分"分析表明在导演与演员的双模网络中,香港导演和演员处于一个子群的中心,而大陆导演和演员相对较孤立。3)区块分析表明在电影江湖中确实存在"派系"特点,即同一地区的导演与演员更愿意在一起合作。     

多机器人对抗系统仿真中的对手建模

用贝叶斯网络来解决多机器人对抗系统的对手建模问题，建立了用于一类多机器人对抗系统对手规划识别的混合贝叶斯网络。将足球机器人赛场进行分区，使用贝叶斯网络来分析和判断对手的意图为将球踢向哪个分区，实现足球机器人系统的对抗目标。建立了基于对手建模的策略仿真系统，实验结果表明了该策略仿真系统的有效性。     

Systemic Understanding of Coopetitive Behaviour in a Latin American Technological Park

The purpose of this article is to construct a systemic structure to explain the relations subjacent to the coopetitive behaviour observed in a Latin American technological park. The research method is qualitative modelling. The primary research technique is the in-depth interview with park experts. Systemic language organised the speeches. The systemic language uses symbols that represent the elements of a system, such as variables, relations, and feedback loops. Initially, we constructed two essential archetypes that describe how the need for coopetition emerged, triggered by failures in meeting customers´ demands and reduced sales. Then, we built an overall systemic structure relying on the essential archetypes, which explains how the coopetitive strategy emerged in the park. The main conclusion reached by the study is learning and public policies as desirable conditions; failure in meeting customers’ requirements as the trigger; and sustainability, knowledge and resource sharing, mitigation of risks and uncertainties, and increased sales by price reduction, as reinforcing feedback factors. The main contribution of the study is a systemic qualitative model that helps understanding how to implement or manage a coopetitive strategy in a network formed of companies mainly driven by technological factors.