河流冰盖热力增长的数值模拟

文章基于多相流理论,建立了河流的热力与水力条件耦合的二维河道模型.模型把河流当作大气-冰体-水体的一个耦合系统,考虑了系统中界面的热量交换,并考虑了冰花在冰盖下堆积对冰盖热量交换的影响.在不同的入口冰花浓度、冰盖上表面温度、入口水流速度的工况下,对冰盖的增长进行了模拟分析,获得了冰盖厚度的增长特征与冰盖形成后水体速度场和温度场的分布特征.模拟结果表明:入口冰花浓度越大、冰盖上表面温度越低、入口流速越小,则形成的冰盖厚度越大;断面上的流速越大,水温越低.     

基于实测冰芯数据的南极海冰厚度的数值模拟

根据我国第22次南极科学考察现场观测数据以及现场采集的冰芯分析数据,考虑太阳辐射、云量等因素对南极海冰厚度变化的影响,利用最小二乘法辨识气温与冰表面温度之间的关系,并以辨识结果所得到的冰表面温度作为上边界条件,依据实测情况取结冰点-1．81℃作为下边界条件,对一维热传导方程采用Crank-Nicolson格式进行离散,对南极中山站内拉湾附近海域海冰厚度变化进行了数值模拟,并与现场观测的海冰厚度数据进行了对比。     

Constraints on hydrothermal processes and water exchange in Lake Vostok from helium isotopes

Lake Vostok, the largest subglacial lake in Antarctica, is covered by the East Antarctic ice sheet, which varies in thickness between 3,750 and 4,100 m (ref. 1). At a depth of 3,539 m in the drill hole at Vostok station, sharp changes in stable isotopes and the gas content of the ice delineate the boundary between glacier ice and ice accreted through re-freezing of lake water. Unlike most gases, helium can be incorporated into the crystal structure of ice during freezing, making helium isotopes in the accreted ice a valuable source of information on lake environment. Here we present helium isotope measurements from the deep section of the Vostok ice core that encompasses the boundary between the glacier ice and accreted ice, showing that the accreted ice is enriched by a helium source with a radiogenic isotope signature typical of an old continental province. This result rules out any significant hydrothermal energy input into the lake from high-enthalpy mantle processes, which would be expected to produce a much higher 3He/4He ratio. Based on the average helium flux for continental areas, the helium budget of the lake leads to a renewal time of the lake of the order of 5,000 years.     

Origin and fate of Lake Vostok water frozen to the base of the East Antarctic ice sheet

The subglacial Lake Vostok may be a unique reservoir of genetic material and it may contain organisms with distinct adaptations, but it has yet to be explored directly. The lake and the overlying ice sheet are closely linked, as the ice-sheet thickness drives the lake circulation, while melting and freezing at the ice-sheet base will control the flux of water, biota and sediment through the lake. Here we present a reconstruction of the ice flow trajectories for the Vostok core site, using ice-penetrating radar data and Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of surface ice velocity. We find that the ice sheet has a significant along-lake flow component, persistent since the Last Glacial Maximum. The rates at which ice is frozen (accreted) to the base of the ice sheet are greatest at the shorelines, and the accreted ice layer is subsequently transported out of the lake. Using these new flow field and velocity measurements, we estimate the time for ice to traverse Lake Vostok to be 16,000-20,000 years. We infer that most Vostok ice analysed to date was accreted to the ice sheet close to the western shoreline, and is therefore not representative of open lake conditions. From the amount of accreted lake water we estimate to be exported along the southern shoreline, the lake water residence time is about 13,300 years.     

High interannual variability of sea ice thickness in the Arctic region

Possible future changes in Arctic sea ice cover and thickness, and consequent changes in the ice-albedo feedback, represent one of the largest uncertainties in the prediction of future temperature rise. Knowledge of the natural variability of sea ice thickness is therefore critical for its representation in global climate models. Numerical simulations suggest that Arctic ice thickness varies primarily on decadal timescales owing to changes in wind and ocean stresses on the ice, but observations have been unable to provide a synoptic view of sea ice thickness, which is required to validate the model results. Here we use an eight-year time-series of Arctic ice thickness, derived from satellite altimeter measurements of ice freeboard, to determine the mean thickness field and its variability from 65 degrees N to 81.5 degrees N. Our data reveal a high-frequency interannual variability in mean Arctic ice thickness that is dominated by changes in the amount of summer melt, rather than by changes in circulation. Our results suggest that a continued increase in melt season length would lead to further thinning of Arctic sea ice.     

Vertical structure of recent Arctic warming

Near-surface warming in the Arctic has been almost twice as large as the global average over recent decades-a phenomenon that is known as the 'Arctic amplification'. The underlying causes of this temperature amplification remain uncertain. The reduction in snow and ice cover that has occurred over recent decades may have played a role. Climate model experiments indicate that when global temperature rises, Arctic snow and ice cover retreats, causing excessive polar warming. Reduction of the snow and ice cover causes albedo changes, and increased refreezing of sea ice during the cold season and decreases in sea-ice thickness both increase heat flux from the ocean to the atmosphere. Changes in oceanic and atmospheric circulation, as well as cloud cover, have also been proposed to cause Arctic temperature amplification. Here we examine the vertical structure of temperature change in the Arctic during the late twentieth century using reanalysis data. We find evidence for temperature amplification well above the surface. Snow and ice feedbacks cannot be the main cause of the warming aloft during the greater part of the year, because these feedbacks are expected to primarily affect temperatures in the lowermost part of the atmosphere, resulting in a pattern of warming that we only observe in spring. A significant proportion of the observed temperature amplification must therefore be explained by mechanisms that induce warming above the lowermost part of the atmosphere. We regress the Arctic temperature field on the atmospheric energy transport into the Arctic and find that, in the summer half-year, a significant proportion of the vertical structure of warming can be explained by changes in this variable. We conclude that changes in atmospheric heat transport may be an important cause of the recent Arctic temperature amplification.     

冬季引水明渠冰盖生长的数值模拟

冬季寒区引水明渠的结冰问题会影响河道的运行和管理,文章利用热力和水力耦合的数学模型对不同条件下二维渠道内的冰盖生长进行数值模拟,通过改变水流速度、气温、水深以及风速的大小分析形成的冰盖厚度;根据数值模拟结果,得出了寒区引水明渠冰盖厚度的增长规律与冰盖形成后水流速度场和温度场的分布规律,以及不同因素对渠道结冰的影响程度.     

Perennial N2 supersaturation in an Antarctic lake

The dry valleys of southern Victoria Land in Antarctica contain several closed basins in which perennially ice-covered lakes are found. One of the most unusual features of these lakes is the occurrence of high O2 concentrations in the water column; values ranging from slightly more than saturation to more than four times saturation have been reported. Recently, we considered a bulk O2 budget for Lake Hoare, Antarctica, which led us to suggest that biological processes alone were not sufficient to explain the observed elevated oxygen levels. Consequently, there must be a non-biological source of O2. We suggested that this source results from the exclusion of O2 during the freezing of aerated meltstream water at the bottom of the ice cover, and predicted that this physical mechanism should also enhance the other atmospheric gases. Here we report the results of a study which, for the first time, documents the supersaturation of N2 in a lake. Dissolved N2 levels of 145% and 163% were determined from samples taken just below the ice cover and at a depth of 12 m, respectively. The relatively importance of biological and abiological sources is reflected in the ratio of N2 concentration to O2 concentration. In Lake Hoare this ratio was 1.20 at ice/water interface and 1.05 at 12 m; considerably different from the ratio in equilibrium with air (approximately 1.8). Based on these results, we have determined that about half of the net O2 production in the lake is the result of biological processes.     

Water exchange between the subglacial Lake Vostok and the overlying ice sheet

It has now been known for several years that a 200-km-long lake, called Lake Vostok, lies beneath the ice sheet on which sits Vostok Station in Antarctica. The conditions at the base of the ice sheet above this subglacial lake can provide information about the environment within the lake, including the likelihood that it supports life. Here we present an analysis of the ice-sheet structure from airborne 60-MHz radar studies, which indicates that distinct zones of basal ice loss and accretion occur at the ice-water interface. Subglacial melting and net ice loss occur in the north of the lake and across its 200-km-long western margin, whereas about 150 m of ice is gained by subglacial freezing in the south. This indicates that significant quantities of water are exchanged between the base of the ice sheet and the lake waters, which will enrich the lake with gas hydrates, cause sediment deposition and encourage circulation of the lake water.     

冰温度膨胀力对渡槽结构影响的有限元分析

在对冰温度膨胀力进行简要分析的基础上,采用冰的黏弹性模型,将有限元方法引入冰温度膨胀力对预应力混凝土渡槽结构影响的计算中．针对工程中常见的受固定约束的冰层对渡槽结构的影响进行有限元建模计算．通过分析可知,冰温度膨胀力会使底板上侧靠近边墙附近产生较高的应力集中,会引起局部结构的破坏．同时,对模型进行冰层厚度和不同温升时间的敏感性分析．结果表明,当温升时间相同时,冰温度膨胀力会随着冰层厚度的增大而增加．     

基于微气象微地形的北京地区输电线路覆冰预测技术

实现输电线路覆冰预测是保障北京地区输电线路在覆冰季正常运行的关键技术。针对北京地区输电线路覆冰预测技术研究,采用皮尔逊相关系数和灰色系统关联度分析方法,利用历史数据研究覆冰厚度与微气象微地形的相关性,得出湿度、坡向、风向和高程对覆冰厚度影响程度较高;通过多种环境特征要素组合构建基于极限随机树模型和灰色系统预测模型的覆冰预测模型,对比不同模型的预测结果的均方根误差（RMSE）,得出由湿度和风向组合构建的灰色系统覆冰预测模型效果最佳。研究结果表明,与同类预测方法相比考虑了微地形对覆冰厚度预测的影响,得到北京地区输电线路覆冰厚度相关性较高的环境因素为湿度、坡向、风向和高程;对比多种环境要素构建的覆冰预测模型,湿度和风向组合的灰色系统预测模型的均方根误差明显优于其它组合,可以有效实现北京地区输电线路覆冰预测。     

Orbit-related long-term climate cycles revealed in a 12-Myr continental record from Lake Baikal

Quaternary records of climate change from terrestrial sources, such as lake sediments and aeolian sediments, in general agree well with marine records. But continuous records that cover more than the past one million years were essentially unavailable until recently, when the high-sedimentation-rate site of Lake Baikal was exploited. Because of its location in the middle latitudes, Lake Baikal is highly sensitive to insolation changes and the entire lake remained uncovered by ice sheets throughout the Pleistocene epoch, making it a valuable archive for past climate. Here we examine long sediment cores from Lake Baikal that cover the past 12 million years. Our record reveals a gradual cooling of the Asian continental interior, with some fluctuations. Spectral analyses reveal periods of about 400 kyr, 600 kyr and 1,000 kyr, which may correspond to Milankovitch periods (reflecting orbital cycles). Our results indicate that changes in insolation were closely related to long-term environmental variations in the deep continental interior, over the past 12 million years.     

埋管换热器对地表温度影响的模拟分析

为探讨地源热泵系统垂直埋管换热器运行对地表温度的影响,采用数值模拟的方法,基于一定的覆土厚度,结合不同工况下的埋管负荷,建立了地下土壤、钻孔、覆土与外界环境之间的传热模型,对埋管运行期覆土层温度场的变化进行了分析,并对地表温度随覆土厚度的变化规律进行了研究。结果表明,在地埋管的连续换热作用下,埋管周围土壤温度显著变化,且越接近钻孔中心,温度变化幅度越大;钻孔顶部覆土层温度局部变化,随着覆土厚度增加,温差递减;地表温度变化范围及上升幅度与埋管换热量成正比,与覆土厚度成反比;增加覆土层厚度能有效减缓地埋管换热对地表温度造成的热影响,有利于管群区域的红外伪装。     

基于高差系数的输电线路标准覆冰厚度模型及参数敏感性

目前现有覆冰监测系统覆冰厚度计算模型与实际情况相差较大,不能满足电网防冰抗冰实际需求的现状。基于现有拉力值反算覆冰厚度计算模型,提出拉力值质量控制方法,建立综合考虑线路设计冰厚、垂直档距、垂直荷载、水平应力等随覆冰厚度变化因素,同时提出杆塔高差系数对模型进行优化,减小模型参数过多造成计算结果不准确,并定量研究模型参数对计算结果的影响。研究表明:所建模型标准覆冰厚度结果与人工观冰之间的平均相对误差为14.09%,使原有模型计算准确度提高61%,更加接近于真实水平。同时,垂直档距随覆冰厚度呈非线性变化特征,在覆冰厚度为0～10 mm时垂直档距与覆冰厚度为二次函数关系,在10～40 mm时垂直档距与覆冰厚度为一次函数关系,覆冰厚度每增加1 mm,导致垂直档距减小约0.04 m。所得结论能够提升电力部门监测系统覆冰厚度计算准确性,同时能够为电力部门线路防冰、抗冰工作提供重要的科学指导意义。     

以气温为边界条件的水库冰盖厚度的数值模拟研究

针对寒区水库冰盖厚度增长的数值模拟问题,依据黑龙江省红旗泡水库2008年、2009年2个冬季现场观测的气温、冰温等实测数据,应用最小二乘法进行参数辨识,改进前人关于冰面温度与气温关系的表达形式,确定了黑龙江省大庆地区水库冰盖冰面温度依赖于大气温度的线性变化关系.分析了前人对寒区水库冰盖热力模式及冰厚增长数值模拟研究的方法,对其一维热力学模型和单相Steften问题所采用的数值解法进行了改进,用已给出的转换关系将大气温度转换后的冰面温度作为边界条件,对黑龙江省红旗泡水库2008、2009年2个冬季冰盖厚度的增长情况进行了数值模拟,数值模拟结果与现场实测数据吻合良好.     

引黄入晋工程申同嘴水库冬季输水安全性分析

为给万家寨引黄入晋工程中中同嘴水库是否采取保温措施提供决策依据,针对水库水温的变化情况建立了基于冰屑形态的水体结冰时间计算模型和基于冰盖形态的出库水温计算模型,计算了水库水体的结冰时间和出库水温．结果表明：库水结冰时间取决于库水位和入库水温,其中库水位影响较大;在形成有效冰盖的状态下,不采取保温加盖措施也能保证冬季输水安全．     

Monitoring the frozen duration of Qinghai Lake using satellite passive microwave remote sensing low frequency data

The Qinghai Lake is the largest inland lake in China. The significant difference of dielectric properties between water and ice suggests that a simple method of monitoring the Qinghai lake freeze-up and break-up dates using satellite passive microwave remote sensing data could be used. The freeze-up and break-up dates from the Qinghai Lake hydrological station and the MODIS LIB reflectance data were used to validate the passive microwave remote sensing results. The validation shows that passive microwave remote sensing data can accurately monitor the lake ice. Some uncertainty comes mainly from the revisit frequency of satellite overpass. The data from 1978 to 2006 show that lake ice duration is reduced by about 14--15 days. The freeze-up dates are about 4 days later and break-up dates about 10 days earlier. The regression analyses show that, at the 0.05 significance level, the correlations are 0.83, 0.66 and 0.89 between monthly mean air temperature （MMAT） and lake ice duration days, freeze-up dates, break-up dates, respectively. Therefore, inter-annual variations of the Qinghai Lake ice duration days can significantly reflect the regional climate variation.     

Large subglacial lakes in East Antarctica at the onset of fast-flowing ice streams

Water plays a crucial role in ice-sheet stability and the onset of ice streams. Subglacial lake water moves between lakes and rapidly drains, causing catastrophic floods. The exact mechanisms by which subglacial lakes influence ice-sheet dynamics are unknown, however, and large subglacial lakes have not been closely associated with rapidly flowing ice streams. Here we use satellite imagery and ice-surface elevations to identify a region of subglacial lakes, similar in total area to Lake Vostok, at the onset region of the Recovery Glacier ice stream in East Antarctica and predicted by ice-sheet models. We define four lakes through extensive, flat, featureless regions of ice surface bounded by upstream troughs and downstream ridges. Using ice velocities determined using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), we find the onset of rapid flow (moving at 20 to 30 m yr(-1)) of the tributaries to the Recovery Glacier ice stream in a 280-km-wide segment at the downslope margins of these four subglacial lakes. We conclude that the subglacial lakes initiate and maintain rapid ice flow through either active modification of the basal thermal regime of the ice sheet by lake accretion or through scouring bedrock channels in periodic drainage events. We suggest that the role of subglacial lakes needs to be considered in ice-sheet mass balance assessments.     

西藏念青唐古拉山东段冰湖的时空分布特征及其影响因素探讨

冰湖是研究气候变化的重要指标之一,了解冰湖分布和变化的特征,对认识冰湖与气候之间关系和研究冰湖溃决泥石流灾害有着重要意义。本文拟利用1976年、1988年、2001年和2013年四个期次冰川、冰湖的遥感解译结果进行分析,得出1976年至2013年念青唐古拉山东段冰川与冰湖发育分布特征,对念青唐古拉山区东段冰川消融以及气候垂直变化具有一定的指示作用,同时为冰湖溃决泥石流灾害的预测预警提供依据。     

Physical, chemical and biological processes in Lake Vostok and other Antarctic subglacial lakes.

Over 70 lakes have now been identified beneath the Antarctic ice sheet. Although water from none of the lakes has been sampled directly, analysis of lake ice frozen (accreted) to the underside of the ice sheet above Lake Vostok, the largest of these lakes, has allowed inferences to be made on lake water chemistry and has revealed small quantities of microbes. These findings suggest that Lake Vostok is an extreme, yet viable, environment for life. All subglacial lakes are subject to high pressure (approximately 350 atmospheres), low temperatures (about -3 degrees C) and permanent darkness. Any microbes present must therefore use chemical sources to power biological processes. Importantly, dissolved oxygen is available at least at the lake surface, from equilibration with air hydrates released from melting basal glacier ice. Microbes found in Lake Vostok's accreted ice are relatively modern, but the probability of ancient lake-floor sediments leads to a possibility of a very old biota at the base of subglacial lakes.