Runoff sensitivity to climate changes in the Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region （LRGR）： An example of the Longchuan Basin in the Upper Yangtze

The sensitivity of runoff to the climate change in the Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region （LRGR） in southwest China was investigated with a case study in the Longchuan Basin of the upper Yangtze River, where the climate change is more complex due to the influences from both global warming and local topography. Non-updating artificial neural networks were calibrated and validated at the baseline condition and were used to predict the response of runoff under 25 hypothetical climate scenarios, which were generated by adjusting the baseline temperature by -1, 0, 1, 2 and 3℃ and by scaling rainfall by 0%, ± 10% and ± 20%, The results indicated that runoff is more sensitive to the increase in rainfall. The annual and seasonal runoff changes were determined by the interaction between temperature and rainfall. At seasonal scale, the direction of change in runoff is more determined by temperature in winter and spring; whereas it is more determined by rainfall in summer and autumn. The LRGR in southwest China may experience a higher frequency of floods in the wet season and more serious droughts in the dry season, if a wetter summer and warmer winter is the trend of future climate change, as predicted by many GCMs.     

Climate change and hydrologic process response in the Tarim River Basin over the past 50 years

Climate change and hydrologic process response in the Tarim River Basin over the past 50 years are the focus of more and more researchers＇ attention. In this paper, both temperature and precipitation time series were found to present a monotonic increasing trend using nonparametric tests. Noticeably, a significant step change in both temperature and precipitation time series occurred in 1986. By contrasting the trends of natural water process in headstream and mainstream, we found that it was anthropogenic activities not climate change that caused the river dried up and vegetation degenerated in the lower reaches of Tarim River. The results of gray correlation analysis show that the runoff of higher latitude distributing river is more closely associated with winter snow stocking, while that of lower latitude is more closely related to summer temperature. Runoff in the headstream is more sensitive to precipitation, while that in the mainstream is more sensitive to evaporation. The strong evaporation caused by increasing temperature weakened runoff to some extent in spite of the fact that precipitation increased over the past 50 years.     

Land cover classification of remotely sensed image with hierarchical iterative method

Land cover classification is one of the most wide ly used applications of remote sensing. The use ofmultitemporal remote sensing data in land cover clas sification is one of the effective methods of obtainingaccurate land cover/land use data. For a particularimage, different land cover types often show a similarspectral response and are difficult to separate. Theadvantage of using multitemporal data is that differentvegetation types show different spectral characteristicsin…     

The hydrological linkage of mountains and plains in the arid region of northwest China

Mountain regions supply a large amount of fresh water for the people in arid and semiarid regions, however, there is great uncertainty of the water quantification from mountains to lower areas. In order to assess the hydrological significance of mountains and the hydrological linkage of mountains and plains, the measured and simulated hydrological data of the arid region in northwest China were used in the present research which followed a catchment-based approach. Firstly, the Heihe River Basin, a well-documented area, was selected as a specific watershed to reveal the hydrological relationship between highlands (mountains) and lowlands (plains); and then, the significance and disproportion of mountain runoff of 8 river basins as cases in the arid region of northwest China were analyzed and compared following the above analysis. The results of the study showed that the proportion of mountain runoff in total basinal runoff (PMR) of most rivers is above 50%. The PMR are between 50%-95% in the rivers originated in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains where the aqueous vapor is relatively sufficient. And that, almost all the flow of the rivers originating from the Qilian Mountains, the southern slope of the Tianshan Mountains, and the northern slope of the Kunlun Mountains come from mountain regions. Also the PMR gradually increases from west to east in northwest China. The hydrological significance and disproportion of mountains water in the arid region of northwest China were given a systematic and thorough assessment, and the results could give potential guides for the scientific utilization of water resources in these regional areas for relieving the more and more serious shortage of water resources due to climate warming and population expansion.     

A mid－Holocene drought interval as evidenced by lake desiccation in the Alashan Plateau,Inner Mongolia,China

The mid-Holocene in China is traditionally thought to be a warm and humid period with a strong sum-mer monsoon, and is often termed the Holocene Climatic Optimum or Megathermal Period. Here we present lakegeomorphologic and lithologicai evidence from the Alashan Plateau, part of the Mongolian Plateau, that indicates stronglake desiccation during the mid-Holocene. High resolution pollen data from Zhuyeze Lake, at the present summermonsoon margin, is also presented. These data show that present lakes and wetlands in the Juyanze Lake basin west of the Badain Jaran desert, in the Zhuyeze Lake basin between the Badain Jaran and Tengger deserts, and in lakes in the eastern Tengger desert, dried or experienced low lake levelsin the mid-Holocene around 5000-7000 cal yr BP. Pollen data further indicate that the vegetation cover declined in both the local areas and in the Qilian Mountains, suggesting the climate was drier than that associated with the presentAsian summer monsoon. This mid-Holocene drought interval was present throughout a quite large region of the south In-ner Mongolian Plateau. The period was also probably colder,at least in the high Asian plateaus and mountains.     

Integrated simulation of the dualistic water cycle and its associated processes in the Haihe River Basin

Water resource shortages, water environmental deterioration, and water ecological degradation are becoming increasingly prominent in the Haihe River Basin under the effects of global climate change and intense human activity. Finding ways to solve these problems reasonably is an urgent task in basin water resources management. The water cycle describes the formation and transformation of every water drop, while it interacts with associated water ecology and water environment processes. Therefore, to fundamentally solve the above problems, the three processes must be combined and the evolutionary trends of the ecology and water environment driven by the water cycle must be determined. To comprehensively diagnose and solve the problems of water resources, ecology and water environment in the basin, an integrated simulation platform of the dualistic water cycle and its associated processes in the Haihe River Basin was established by fully analyzing the "natural-social" dualistic characteristics of the evolution of the basin water cycle in this study. Accordingly, it is a supporting tool to evaluate the future trends of water resources, ecology and the water environment by setting scenarios based on the predictions of a climate mode and water control conditions. The results show that with climate change, the water consumption, groundwater overexploitation, and the amount of water flowing to the sea could develop soundly and satisfy the requirements of national economic growth in the future planning year 2030 through the implementation of water consumption control management and the South-North Water Diversion Project. Meanwhile, associated water environmental deterioration can be alleviated, and a growing trend for production capacities of the natural ecosystem and agro-ecosystem is seen. The above results provide a foundation for implementing basin water resources regulation and the most strict water resources management.     

Transboundary hydrological effects of hydropower dam construction on the Lancang River

Ecological and socioeconomic issues in the Greater Mekong Subregion have in recent years attracted increasing regional and global attention. Much of this concern has been centered on construction of a cascade of hydropower dams on the Lancang River （upper Mekong River） in southwestern China＇s Yunnan Province, This article uses monthly runoff data of hydrologic monitoring stations in the Lancang River watershed from the 1950s onward and key data of the partially completed 2-dam cascade on the main stream of Lancang River to perform a comprehensive analysis of possible transboundary hydrologic effects of dam construction on Lower Mekong River. Results of the analysis show the following： （1） changes in flows over the Lancang-Mekong river＇s 4880 km course are exceedingly complex, and the two existing dams on the mainstream of Lancang River are but one of many factors influencing those flows, not a major factor; （2） significant downstream impacts of the two existing dams are limited in scale to changes in daily flow stages, and are limited geographically to the narrow channel north of Vientiane; （3） over timescales of several days or more, the primary factor in flow changes is climate change; （4） below the Yunjinghong hydrologic station in Lancang River basin, flow volumes can be as great as 113.7×10^8 m^3, or 15.44% of the average annual total runoff out of China, now are not influenced by the dam construction. These results provide a scientific basis for reasonable assessment of transboundary impact of dam construction on the mainstream of Lancang River to the lower Mekong River.     

Hotspots of the sensitivity of the land surface hydrological cycle to climate change

Due to the shortage of the global observational data of the terrestrial hydrological variables,the understanding of how surface hydrological processes respond to climate change is still limited.In this study,the Community Land Model(CLM4.0)with high resolution atmospheric forcing data is selected to simulate the global surface hydrological quantities during the period 1948–2006and to investigate the spatial features of these quantities in response to climate change at the regional scales.The sensitivities of evaporation and runoff with respect to the dominant climate change factors(e.g.temperature and precipitation)derived from the concept of climate elasticity are introduced.Results show that evaporation has a declining trend with a rate of 0.7 mm per decade,while runoff shows a weak increasing trend of 0.15 mm per decade over the global land surface.Analyses of the hotspots in the hydrological cycle indicate that the spatial distributions for evaporation and runoff are similar over many areas in central Asia,Australia,and southern South America,but differ largely in high latitudes.It is also found that,the evaporation hotspots in arid regions are mainly associated with the changes in precipitation.Our sensitive analysis suggests that the hydrological quantities show a rather complicated spatial dependency of response of the water cycle to the different climate factors(temperature and precipitation).     

New evidence for effects of land cover in China on summer climate

The effects of land cover in different regions of China on summer climate are studied by lagged correlation analysis using NOAA/AVHRR normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data for the period of 1981-1994 and temperature,precipitation data of 160 meteorological stations in China,The results show that the correlation coeffi-cients between NDVI in previous season and summer precipitation are positive in most regions of China,and the lagged correlations show a significant difference between regions.The stronger correlations between NDVI in previous winter and precipitation in summer occur in Central Chian and the Tibetan Plateau,and the correlations between spring NDVI and summer precipitation in the eastern arid/semiarid region and the Tibetan Plateau are more significant .Vegetation changes have more sensitive feedback effects on climate in the three regions (eastern arid /semi-arid region,Central China and Tibetan Plateau),The lagged correlations between NDVI and precipitation suggest that,on interannual time scales,land cover affects summer precipitation to a certain extent,The correlations between NDVI in previous season and summer temperature show more comlex ,and the lagged responses of temperature to vegetation are weaker compared with precipitation .and they are possibly related to the global warming which partly cover up the correlations.     

The utilization of water resources and its variation tendency in Tarim River Basin

Water resources efficient utilization is the key to ecological improvement and economic development in Tarim River Basin. It is necessary to analyze the water resources utilization and its variation tendency in the whole river basin. Based on the monitored data and formation at eight meteorological stations and fifteen hydrological stations, the method of time series, regression analysis are applied to analyzing the water resources utilization and variation trend in the headstreams and mainstream areas especially in recent 10 years. The quantitative results indicate that inflows of the headstream areas have an increasing trend to different extent in the past 40 years. The runoff increasing trend is more significant from1994 to 2002, which show the water resources condition in the headstreams is at an advantage. However, under the condition of water increase with the volume of 25×10^8 m^3 in headstreams in recent 10 years, the mainstream water flowing from the headstreams has increased less than 0.9985×10^8 m^3. In addition, the runoff at the different hydrologic stations along the Tarim River has a significant linear de- creasing trend. It is shown that the degraded trend of ecological environment in the mainstream areas hardly changes even if the Tarim River Basin is in the special water period for ten consecutive years.     

黑河上游不同流域融雪过程的SRM模拟

利用SRM模型对黑河上游三个水文站点控制区2000年的融雪过程进行了模拟,在此基础上探讨高山地区不同水文区域对SRM模型模拟精度的影响.模型以MODIS积雪产品和气象台站数据为输入,结合退水系数进行融雪过程模拟,重点研究不同水文站点控制区域下的模拟精度.结果表明:在气象观测数据相对丰富的莺落峡控制区,模拟的精度较高,拟合优度确定系数R~2=0.795,积差D_v=-2.346%;在气象观测资料稀缺的祁连站和扎马什克站控制区,其模拟精度较差,其中祁连站R~2=-0.233,D_v=-3.277%,扎马什克站R~2=0.517,D_v=-11.128%.此外,地形的复杂程度和植被覆盖类型也会对模型的模拟精度产生影响.     

雅鲁藏布江奴下水文站以上流域水文过程及其对气候变化的响应

以雅鲁藏布江奴下水文站以上流域为研究对象,针对缺资料流域的水文计算和预测问题,采用流域水文模型THREW,用地面气象观测、遥感植被覆盖和积雪面积等资料,基于断面水文监测数据对模型进行率定,应用CMIP5数据对径流演变进行预估。结果表明:对于雅鲁藏布江奴下水文站以上流域,THREW模型对1991—1995年率定期月径流模拟的纳什效率系数为0.75,对1996—2000年验证期月径流模拟的纳什效率系数为0.76;IPCC AR5所设置在CO2排放量最大的情况下,径流明显增加。     

高寒流域水文模拟与径流水源解析——以雅鲁藏布江帕隆藏布上游流域为例

为深入研究高寒流域河川径流的水源解析,选取雅鲁藏布江帕隆藏布上游流域为研究区,采用月流量、遥感积雪面积数据、实测冰川径流数据等多目标率定方法,改进单一依靠流量数据率定模型的方法,基于SPHY(Spatial Processes in Hydrology)水文模型开展水文模拟及径流组分研究,提高了总体建模质量.结果表明：在率定期和验证期Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数分别为0.95和0.94,模型具有较好的适用性.降雨径流、融雪径流、冰川径流和基流作为径流来源,占总径流的比例分别为10%、25%、45%和20%,冰川径流和融雪径流是最重要的补给来源.月尺度上,冰川径流在7-8月占比最大,融雪径流在4-6月占比最大,降雨径流在各月占比最小.冰川径流占比最高,短期内可提供更多水资源保障社会经济发展,长期而言冰川径流将逐渐减少,造成水资源短缺.因此,当地需提高应对径流变化潜在风险的策略.     

河西黑河流域水文研究的若干进展

黑河流域历来是科学工作者研究寒区、旱区水文、水资源的典型区域．通过对它的研究，人们可以深入了解西北寒区、旱区冰川、积雪、冻土、高寒山区、山前地带和下游径流散失区的水文、水资源状况，进而为地区经济可持续发展提供及时的决策依据．20世纪80年代末以来，在用卫星监测祁连山积雪、冻土水文功能、黑河上游融雪径流预报等方面取得了多项研究成果．近几年来，黑河流域水文水资源研究在出山径流模拟与预测、地下水动态监测、水资源与生态环境的关系以及水资源合理开发利用等方面获得了长足的发展．展望未来，在黑河流域的研究将发展到以水循环为核心的，包括大气圈、生物圈、水圈和岩石圈各圈层在时空尺度上物质和能量相互转换的系统研究阶段，高新技术手段在实地观测和遥感、遥测中的应用将起到重要推动作用．     

高山积雪：母亲河之源——积雪分布时空演化的多物理过程、多尺度研究

 雪是地球上最为活跃的自然要素之一,是组成极地冰盖和高山冰川的重要物质来源,同时也是地表径流的主要补给。积雪的时空分布和演变深刻影响着全球的水文循环、生态系统、气候演化以及其他自然过程,在高寒山区水文过程中扮演着重要的角色。高山积雪与冰川融水是黄河源头水源补给的主要形式,因此亟需开展黄河源区积雪水资源综合科学研究,在准确评估黄河源区水资源现状及其变化规律和发展趋势的基础上提出科学合理的保护和开发黄河水资源的策略。积雪分布研究涉及大气湍流与颗粒相互作用等具有挑战性的科学前沿及热点问题,以及多场耦合、多尺度等科学共性问题,还涉及力学学科与地理学、大气物理、气候变化等相关学科的交叉问题。目前对积雪分布的研究手段包括野外观测、遥感反演和基于动力学过程的模式研究。鉴于前两种手段的局限性,开展多物理过程、多尺度、多场耦合的积雪分布时空演化模拟已成为积雪水资源研究的重要手段之一。介绍了积雪分布研究现状及进展,指出了面临的挑战以及下一步研究方向。     

基于启发式分割和近似熵法的径流序列变异诊断

对河川径流的变异研究不仅有助于掌握变化环境下径流的演变规律,还能提高水文分析、水文模拟以及水文计算结果的准确度。以渭河流域为研究对象,采用启发式分割和近似熵方法,对渭河年径流序列进行了变异诊断,诊断结果表明:林家村以上流域存在1971和1994年2个变异点;张家山以上流域无变异点存在;整个渭河流域存在1969和1993年两个变异点。此外,通过对渭河径流变异归因分析可知,该流域径流变异主要是由气候变化(1971年的El Nino和1994年的ENSO事件)与人类活动(水利工程建设、流域下垫面的改变以及大量开采地下水和地表水)的共同作用所导致的。     

黄河上游径流量对气候变化的响应和预测模型

全球气候变化下的黄河上游径流量变化及其预测是流域生态水文研究的热点之一。论文利用2008-2020年流域内48个气象站的监测数据和头道拐水文站径流数据,系统分析了黄河上游流域径流量与气候要素变化的关系,并建立径流量预测模型。结果表明,单一月份的月平均气温、月降水量和月蒸散发量多未表现出显著的年际变化趋势,但年平均气温和年降水量显著上升,而年蒸散发量也有上升趋势但统计不显著;多数单一月份的月径流量和年径流量均在年际上呈显著增加趋势。在月平均气温、月降水量、月蒸散发量均与月径流量显著相关的基础上,基于气候要素建立的黄河上游流域径流量预测模型具有良好的预测效果。     

气侯转型对玛纳斯河流域径流的影响及其变化趋势

针对气候转型,根据近50年玛纳斯河上下游气象、水文资料,采用5年滑动平均、模比系数差积曲线、线性趋势等方法,分析了气候转型对玛纳斯河径流的影响。结果显示：玛纳斯河流域50年以来的气温呈上升趋势,平均气温增长率为0.38℃.10年-1,降水量也呈增长趋势;由于气温、降水增加趋势明显,导致1987年以后玛纳斯河径流呈增长趋势,洪水和洪灾发生的频次增加,这表明玛纳斯河流域气侯的变化已出现由暖干向暖湿转型的强劲信号,预计玛纳斯河的丰水期可能持续至2050年。     

基于MODIS的玛纳斯河流域冰川积雪覆盖变化特征的分析

为分析玛纳斯河流域冰川积雪覆盖的变化特征,应对气候变化条件下区域水资源的变化,以MODIS数据为基础,利用归一化差分积雪指数方法提取了玛纳斯河流域的冰川积雪覆盖面积,研究了该流域1998—2006年的冰川积雪覆盖变化。结果表明：该流域的年际冰川积雪覆盖区域的平均海拔高度在1998—2002年表现为下降过程,在2002—2006年表现为上升过程;1998～2001年冰川积雪面积有一个缓慢增大的过程,而自2001年以后,出现了年均8km^2左右稳步减小的过程;另外,该流域冰川积雪面积与平均温度、降水分别呈显著负相关和正相关关系。这说明气候变暖对玛纳斯河流域山区冰川积雪的消融有明显促进作用。     

基于多时相高分四号影像的雪盖范围提取

积雪覆盖监测是地球科学研究的基础,对于研究全球气候变化,开展防灾减灾救灾等工作都有重要的意义.高分四号卫星是我国高分辨率对地观测系统重大专项中唯一一颗民用高轨卫星,也是世界上首颗静止轨道高分辨率光学成像卫星,其机动灵活、高频次观测能力在积雪遥感业务化监测中具有广阔的应用前景.该文利用高分四号卫星多谱段、高时效、大幅宽和中分辨率等成像优势,紧密结合积雪和移动云层在多时相图像上的反射特点,提出了基于多时相高分四号卫星数据的积雪覆盖范围提取方法.首先对高分四号卫星全色图像进行二值化分割以消除低反射目标的影响;然后对多时相云雪覆盖区域进行合成来剔除移动云层的干扰;在此基础上,利用云、雪在多时相近红外图像上反射值变化的差异性,通过对多时相高分四号卫星近红外图像的最小值合成和阈值分割精细化地提取积雪覆盖范围,进一步去除变化云层的影响.以新疆中西部为试验区,通过与基于HJ-1B卫星的积雪覆盖结果比较,实验表明：两类数据提取的积雪空间分布具有较好的趋势一致性,高分四号卫星影像监测积雪范围更广,总体精度达92.19%,高于HJ-1B卫星图像的89.84%;但受空间分辨率和“不变云层”的影响,基于高分四号卫星影像的积雪识别精度为85.16%,低于基于HJ-1B卫星图像的识别精度94.53%.