The Analysis of Newly Gained Feedback Loops After Introducing the Salary-Grade-Incitement System to HR Management

In order to find some effective management policy by the feedback archetypes analysis. To the minimum archetypes generating problem of a complex system, we transform the rate variable fundamental in-tree model of SD to a diagonal-0 branch-vector matrix using the method combining graph theory and algebra. We create the branch vector matrix formula to generate minimum archetypes of the network flow diagram. We solve the problem of how to generate the minimum archetypes of the complex system archetype generating method, and create a SD model of a human resource management in an organization using this new method. We prove that there are 16 new positive feedback loops and 17 negative feedback loops of 2 to 6 order of the HR management that is based on the incitements of performance levels. At the same time, these policies restrain the performance of the organization because of the increasing of cost. By analyze the growth limited structure model, we find the policy of increasing the performance of both the employee and the organization.     

“公司+ 农户”规模经营系统的反馈基模生成集分析

在笔者原提出的系统动力学流率基本入树规范性建模法的基础上,讨论了一个确定的复杂系统的系统基模生成的问题.给出了用系统动力学流率基本入树作嵌运算生成反馈极小基模,由极小基模构成反馈基模生成集的具体方法,其中给出了生成基模的三个定理.此基模生成集可生成系统的具特性的各类基模结构.此基模生成集相当于数学线性空间的基础解析.这为对一个复杂系统进行基模反馈分析提供了一个有效分析工具.运用此新建立的反馈基模生成法,对"公司+农户"规模经营模式进行了优势与制约因素的有效分析,并提出了相应的管理方针,实现了用系统科学方法有效分析"三农"(农业、农村、农民)问题的目的.     

System Archetype to Understand Unintended Behavior in Indian Shrimp Industry and to Aid in Strategy Development

The Indian Shrimp Industry has exhibited an interesting phenomenon of fast growth in the early nineties (1990–1994), decline in the mid-nineties (1995–1997), and slow revival in the recent years (1997–2009). The cyclic behavior of the Industry, though, was much discussed in the literature, but no explanation regarding such behavior was explicitly discussed in the literature. The strategies following such behavior were mostly ad-hoc and symptomatic in nature. In this paper, we have analyzed the Industry’s past behavior using a systems approach and have developed the structure of the Industry in the form of a system archetype, which explained the cyclic behavior of the Industry. The system archetypical structure of the Industry was made keeping the existing system archetypes as the foundation. The system archetype developed here is generic enough to explain any growth-decline-revival behavior of an industry or organization. The archetype of Indian Shrimp Industry also helped us in designing sustainable strategies for the Industry that included controlling over-expansion in a shrimp farming zone and controlling pollution generation by each shrimp farm.     

Archetypes of systems design

“Systems design” represents a worldview composed of at least three philosophical layers: ontological beliefs, epistemological assumptions, and methodological choices. An archetype is a root metaphor that crosses these layers and captures a worldview. Three archetypes thought to have good potential for communicating and triggering inquiry into the nature of the systems design worldview are described.     

系统入树反馈基模生成系向量生成法

提出用基模生成系分析系统结构的思路。并利用向量乘法结合系统动力学流率基本入树模型给出计算基模生成系中极小基模的方法，为复杂系统的反馈分析提供了有效的工具。     

PERSPECTIVES ON URBAN WATER INFRASTRUCTURE IN CHINA FOR THE 21~(ST) CENTURY: SDMUWEIC MODEL

Based on system dynamics approach, SDMUWEIC model is developed in order to evaluate future dynamics of urban water infrastructure development in China. Firstly, this paper presents the basic structure and characteristics of the model, focusing on water infrastructure's dynamic relationships with population increase, economic development, water resources shortage and water conservation practices. Secondly, model veracity and robustness tests based on behavior reproduction and uncertainty analyses are illustrated. Thirdly, based on the model, future patterns of China's urban water infrastructure investment requirements are simulated, and effectiveness of two different policy scenarios are evaluated. Finally, conclusions and policy implications are drawn, allowing insights into China's sustainable water infrastructure policies and managements.     

Stability analysis of decentralized adaptive backstepping control systems with actuator failures

In this paper, the authors analyze the stability of a class of interconnected systems with subsystem unmodeled dynamics and dynamic interactions employing decentralized adaptive controllers designed by Wen, Zhou, and Wang (2008) in the presence of actuator failures. It will be shown that the global stability of the remaining closed-loop system is still ensured and the outputs are also regulated to zero when some subsystems break down.     

Systemic Understanding of Coopetitive Behaviour in a Latin American Technological Park

The purpose of this article is to construct a systemic structure to explain the relations subjacent to the coopetitive behaviour observed in a Latin American technological park. The research method is qualitative modelling. The primary research technique is the in-depth interview with park experts. Systemic language organised the speeches. The systemic language uses symbols that represent the elements of a system, such as variables, relations, and feedback loops. Initially, we constructed two essential archetypes that describe how the need for coopetition emerged, triggered by failures in meeting customers´ demands and reduced sales. Then, we built an overall systemic structure relying on the essential archetypes, which explains how the coopetitive strategy emerged in the park. The main conclusion reached by the study is learning and public policies as desirable conditions; failure in meeting customers’ requirements as the trigger; and sustainability, knowledge and resource sharing, mitigation of risks and uncertainties, and increased sales by price reduction, as reinforcing feedback factors. The main contribution of the study is a systemic qualitative model that helps understanding how to implement or manage a coopetitive strategy in a network formed of companies mainly driven by technological factors.     

PERSPECTIVES ON URBAN WATER INFRASTRUCTURE IN CHINA FOR THE 21^ST C0ENTURY： SDMUWEIC MODEL

Based on system dynamics approach, SDMUWEIC model is developed in order to evaluatefuture dynamics of urban water infrastructure development in China. Firstly, this paper presents thebasic structure and characteristics of the model, focusing on water infrastructure‘s dynamicrelationships with population increase, economic development, water resources shortage and waterconservation practices. Secondly, model veracity and robustness tests based on behavior reproductionand uncertainty analyses are illustrated. Thirdly, based on the model, future pattems of China‘s urbanwater infrastructure investment requirements are simulated, and effectiveness of two different policyscenarios are evaluated. Finally, conclusion,; and policy implications are drawn, allowing insights intoChina‘s sustainable water infrastructure policies and managements.     

流动性风险对可违约债券信用利差期限结构的影响

在Du ffie-S ing leton定价模型的基础上,构造了流动性风险影响下的可违约债券定价模型,其中流动性因素的风险中性过程具备均值回复和条件异方差特征。在该模型的基础上,进一步建立了连续复利下可违约债券信用利差的期限结构模型,并通过改变流动性风险中性过程的控制参数,探讨了流动性风险对可违约债券利差期限结构的影响。结果显示,债券利差的期限结构对流动性风险非常敏感,且同样利差结构的债券可能拥有完全不同的风险结构。对这些风险构成不加甄别,将直接影响使用基于强度过程的简约化模型对信用衍生品定价的准确性。     

基于MCS-CA的考虑共因失效的复杂系统可靠性评估

共因失效普遍存在于现实的工程系统中。如果忽略共因失效对系统的影响,按照传统假设其部件独立的方法进行可靠性分析会得出过于乐观的结论,并且作出认为系统符合可靠性需求的错误判断。在考虑系统由部件选择性失效传播引起的共因失效的同时,提出了一种面向复杂系统的基于蒙特卡罗模拟（Monte Carlo simulation, MCS）与元胞自动机（cellular automata, CA）集成的可靠性评估算法。传统方法只能解决可以转化为串、并联结构的简单系统的可靠性评估问题,而所提出的算法打破了这种限制,使得其应用范围更加广泛。     

A Case of Energy and Ecology System Development and a New Approach to System Dynamics Modeling

1　IntroductionIn our previous subject concerned with the development of energy and ecology systemengineering[1 ] ,we have proposed SD rate variable fundamental in- tree modeling and,then,built the model of this system which totally included six in- trees with this newapproach.But the difficulty in locating all feedback loops is a barrier on the way of ourfurther research on the feedback structure and functions of the complex system.Therefore,a new algebraic method named after SD branch- vec…     

A situation calculus based approach to dynamic management of e-business services

In the era of e-businesses, the traditional business services are greatly challenged by the ever-increasing demands from customers with various backgrounds and personalities. Large numbers of new e-businesses are driven by the needs of customers. The existing dynamics inherent in the customer needs require the corresponding dynamic management of services. Attempting to respond to customers in a rapid and intelligent way, this paper proposes a situation calculus based approach for dynamically managing e-Business services in the ubiquitous environment. By employing the formalism of the situation calculus to enable intelligence and automation, the approach can implement. the functions of service automatic composition and model verification. These functions will improve the degree of customer-orientation and enable fast responsiveness in the emerging e-service systems.     

Nonlinear Sampled-Data Systems with a Generalized Hold Polynomial-Function for Fast Sampling Rates

It is well-known that such non-conventional digital control schemes, such as generalized sampled-data hold functions, have clear advantages over the conventional single-rate digital control systems. However, they have theoretical negative aspects that deviation of the input can lead to intersample oscillations or intersample ripples. This paper investigates the zero dynamics of sampleddata models, as the sampling period tends to zero, composed of a new generalized hold polynomial function, a nonlinear continuous-time plant and a sampler in cascade. For a new design of generalized hold circuit, the authors give the approximate expression of the resulting sampled-data systems as power series with respect to a sampling period up to the some order term on the basis of the normal form representation for the nonlinear continuous-time systems, and remarkable improvements in the stability properties of discrete system zero dynamics may be achieved by using proper adjustment. Of particular interest are the stability conditions of sampling zero dynamics in the case of a new hold proposed. Also, an insightful interpretation of the obtained sampled-data models can be made in terms of minimal intersample ripple by design, where the ordinary multirate sampled systems have a poor intersample behavior. It has shown that the intersample behavior arising from the multirate input polynomial function can be localised by appropriately selecting the design parameters based on the stability condition of the sampling zero dynamics. The results presented here generalize the well-known notion of sampling zero dynamics from the linear case to nonlinear systems.     

基于系统动力学的建筑废弃物管理成本-收益分析：以广州市为例

本文以地处珠三角地区的广州市为例，建立建筑废弃物管理成本-收益分析的一种系统动力学模型，并分别从承包商和社会的角度对建筑废弃物全过程处理的成本与收益进行分析，仿真模拟经济补贴和罚款等正反两种经济措施对承包商和社会的成本收益影响. 模拟结果显示：（1）补贴费用的增加对提高承包商和社会的利润都存在边际递减效应；（2）作为政府的有效政策工具，每t再循环废弃物的补贴额大概25元，既可以使社会总利润为正，又可以保证政策的效率；（3）当单位填埋费用为20元/t时，提高单位填埋费用对社会的负面影响将大于其正面影响；当单位填埋费用分别提高至30元/t和40元/t时，社会成本将出现较大幅度的下降，此时的社会总利润随单位填埋费用增加而增加. 论文最后提出了现阶段我国政府应当采取“罚、补”相结合的策略，有针对性处理建筑废弃物管理问题. 此项研究结论可以为我国转型期的建筑废弃物管理决策提供理论依据和数值参考.     

城市路网的复杂网络特性及可靠性仿真分析

首先通过在路网中引进网络平均距离、节点度分布以及簇系数等概念,重点研究了城市路网映射后的复杂网络特征,以合肥市路网为例进行了实证研究。在此基础上,尝试运用复杂网络理论探讨城市路网可靠性,并以合肥市路网为例,进行了路网选择性攻击和随机失效条件下的可靠性仿真分析,其结果表明路网展现出完全不同的鲁棒性。将复杂网络理论应用到城市路网分析,进一步拓展了城市交通网络基础理论的研究思路和研究范围。     

城市私人汽车与住房发展关系研究

建立了系统动力学模型,模拟和预测北京住房、公共交通和小轿车的发展关系。该模型计算结果表明,要解决紧迫的住房问题,必须限制小轿车的数量。若有足够的数据支持,并加以细化,该模型可以成为各地政府制定城市发展战略的有力工具     

Cities and methods from complexity science

The dynamics of human society is now been studying in the context of the artificial environment created by cities. In this work, the authors describe some of the formal methods used in complexity science to study urban systems. The authors discuss some of the important quantitative approaches on cities paying attention to some of the deepest controversies in present scientific studies. The authors will stress the importance of a transdisciplinary approach when studying this type of cooperative social environments.     

实现产业均衡的容量电价调整政策

在需求不确定假设前提下,利用实用期权理论,建立了寡头竞争市场结构下的短期投资模型和长期博弈均衡模型.通过比较不同容量电价政策的长期均衡效果,本文发现,单一制电价下,长期容量投资将严重不足;除非完全固定容量电价水平能够事先精确地确定,两部制电价总体上并不会自动地诱导出长期市场投资均衡;本文提出的相对固定容量电价调整政策不仅能够更快地诱导出电力市场的长期均衡,而且可以实现比完全固定容量电价政策更高的竞争效率.     

城市房价为何不同:公共服务对房价的影响

本文研究城市基本公共服务差异对住房市场的影响,实证考察城市基本公共服务在住房市场发展中的作用及其影响机制.本研究基于2006-2014年我国29个大中城市的基本公共服务数据,采用熵值法计算出各城市每年的基本公共服务指数,并运用面板回归模型实证分析了城市的基本公共服务对商品住宅销售价格的影响.研究发现,医疗资源对住房市场的影响十分显著,对于一线城市更是如此,医疗资源的集中是引起一线城市商品住宅销售价格上涨的重要因素.本研究的政策含义在于,合理统筹医疗、教育等资源,推动区域基本公共服务均等化,有利于促进我国住房市场健康发展,有利于构建住房市场以及房地产市场长效调控机制.同时,统筹城市公共服务和制定房地产调控政策应做到因地制宜、因城施策.