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《自然辩证法通讯》2016,(1)
科学哲学领域的方法论研究者提出了各种对"最佳解释","融贯性"或者"统合性"的概率测度。这些测度如果有用,至少在某些情况下依赖它们作解释性推理应该比因果推理中通常用的统计方法更准确。格拉斯(2012)发现,大多数此类测度在小样本的情况下都不优于通常统计方法中用的似然度(likelihood)或后验概率。此后,格拉斯(2013)比较了他定义的测度和后验概率对解决一类假说选择问题的优劣。在该类问题中,需要从一组互不相容且非此即彼的假说中择一,但假说的概率未知。他的结果显示,在似然度已知而主观的先验概率和真实的概率分布不同的情况下,如果样本很小,极大化他的测度选择假说可以比极大化后验概率更准确。本文在格拉斯的框架下探究一些一致的模型选择方法在有限样本下的准确性。笔者发现不同方法在准确性上的优劣依赖于真实假说的分布以及所采用的主观先验概率。虽然很多方法可能在所有设置下都不是最优,但也没有方法在所有设置下都是最优。笔者认为,如果对真实假说的分布和主观先验概率没有限定,讨论哪种方法在样本量不大的情况下能更准确的选出真假说意义不大。 相似文献
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由于主观贝叶斯主义主张,只要不违反一致性规范,一个理性的认知主体对一个假说的先验概率的赋值不再受其它限制。其批评者认为科学的客观性会因此被遗失。这就是主观贝叶斯主义面临的最大问题——先验概率问题。回应此批评的方案可分为两种:(1)先验概率的确不体现科学的客观性,但是随着经验证据的累积,不同认知主体后验概率的收敛则体现了科学的客观性。(2)用主体间概率代替主观概率。科学共同体的主体间概率是客观性的体现。在分析上述回应方案面临的困难后,尝试提出共同体概率,用共同体概率代替主观概率,以期解决先验概率问题。 相似文献
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一个科学假说的确立受到两方面的支持,即经验支持和理论支持。在检验假说的过程中既会出现经验和理论同时支持的情况,也会出现二者作用相反的情况。库恩范式理论和贝叶斯方法可用于说明这两种支持之间的张力关系。根据范式理论,在常规科学时期,理论支持对于假说的确立起着决定性的作用;在科学革命时期,经验支持对于假说的确立起着决定性的作用。贝叶斯方法则通过假说的验前概率和验后概率提供了一种将经验支持和理论支持综合起来的检验模式。 相似文献
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贝叶斯推理是概率推理的一种重要形式,但是在推理过程中会出现“先验概率忽视”和“证据质量忽视”的谬误,以往认为前者是由于人们在推理过程中采用了代表性启发式策略而产生的,而后者是由于缺乏相关的专业知识所造成的,但是前一解释在理论基础、前提假设和解释范围三个方面都存在问题,而后一解释又与实证研究结果不相符合.基于休谟的“因果... 相似文献
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最佳说明推理源于溯因推理,在一种推理过程中同时对科学假说的产生和评价作出了说明。文章考察了最佳说明推理的基本概念;从新假说产生即科学发现的视角,重构了皮尔士的溯因模型;在此基础上,比较了最佳说明推理与溯因推理的异同,比较性地评价了两者作为科学探究模式的优劣;最后,尝试性地得出几条结论。 相似文献
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费希尔(Ronald Aylmer Fisher,1890—1962),英国学者,在统计推理、归纳逻辑、生物统计学等领域取得了杰出的成就,他的极大似然估计法、信任推理(fiducial argument)理论,假设检验理论已成为现代统计学的重要学说,对于归纳推理也提出了独到的见解。我们知道一个纯粹的数理统计演算系统并不是归纳逻辑。归纳逻辑与统计推理又有着密切的联 相似文献
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最佳说明推理的有效性是当前科学哲学研究备受关注的话题.范·弗拉森反驳这种推理的有效性.他通过质询正确的好说明是否在那堆被考虑的可能说明中,表明如果遗漏正确说明,在考虑它时"无动于衷",那就无法认为一堆可能说明中最佳的那个说明是正确的.范·弗拉森对这种推理的理解实际上并不充分.结合他的相关表述,就能看到他的无动于衷论证存... 相似文献
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Ryszard Wójcicki 《Foundations of Science》1995,1(4):471-516
This paper was written with two aims in mind. A large part of it is just an exposition of Tarski's theory of truth. Philosophers do not agree on how Tarski's theory is related to their investigations. Some of them doubt whether that theory has any relevance to philosophical issues and in particular whether it can be applied in dealing with the problems of philosophy (theory) of science.In this paper I argue that Tarski's chief concern was the following question. Suppose a language L belongs to the class of languages for which, in full accordance with some formal conditions set in advance, we are able to define the class of all the semantic interpretations the language may acquire. Every interpretation of L can be viewed as a certain structure to which the expressions of the language may refer. Suppose that a specific interpretation of the language L was singled out as the intended one. Suppose, moreover, that the intended interpretation can be characterized in a metalanguage L
+. If the above assumptions are satisfied, can the notion of truth for L be defined in the metalanguage L
+ and, if it can, how can this be done? 相似文献
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That Maxwell' s electrodynamics the way in which it is usually understood leads to asymmetries that do not appear in the phenomena is well known.
Albert Einstein
The painter' s studio should be a laboratory. There one does not make art in the manner of a monkey, one invents. Painting is a play of the mind. 相似文献
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Alan Baker 《Foundations of Science》2013,18(4):687-705
The aim of the paper is to introduce some of the history and key concepts of network science to a philosophical audience, and to highlight a crucial—and often problematic—presumption that underlies the network approach to complex systems. Network scientists often talk of “the structure” of a given complex system or phenomenon, which encourages the view that there is a unique and privileged structure inherent to the system, and that the aim of a network model is to delineate this structure. I argue that this sort of naïve realism about structure is not a coherent or plausible position, especially given the multiplicity of types of entities and relations that can feature as nodes and links in complex networks. 相似文献
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This introductory article starts by describing the genesis of this special issue and the interconnection of its topics. The editors offer a variety of reading entries into the key-note articles and responses. The article reconstructs the research interests underpinning the idea of integrating meaningfulness, volunteers and citizenship. It highlights the explicit interdisciplinary design of the special issue, and shows how the key-note authors, and their respondents, weave connections between meaningfulness, volunteering and citizenship. And, finally, the editors bring the background understandings of the key-note papers to the foreground, and reconstruct a non-intentional meta-level discussion on two fundamental concepts and their interplay: self and world. 相似文献