Response of tree-ring width to rainfall gradient along the Tianshan Mountains of northwestern China

By comparing the long-term tree-ring growths at various geographic scales, we can make clear the effects of environmental variations on tree growth, and get an understanding of the responses of forest ecosystems to the possible changes in global and regional climate. Radial tree-ring growth of Picea schrenkiana and its relationship to air temperature and precipitation were investigated across longi- tude transects on the north slopes of the Tianshan Mountains in northwestern China. Tree-ring samples were collected and residual chronologies were developed for three different regions along a gradient of decreasing precipitation from west to east. Response-function analysis was conducted to quantify the relationships between tree-ring chronologies and climate variables, such as monthly mean temperature and monthly precipitation from 1961 to 1998, using the PRECON software program. The statistical characteristics of the chronologies showed that the three chronologies constructed in this study con- tained significant environmental signals and were well suitable to reveal the impacts of climatic change on tree growth and forest productivity. Annual ring-width variations were similar among the three sites, but the variability was greatest in the east. This research showed that the growth trends of Picea schrenkiana in the Tianshan Mountains have not followed a uniform pattern. Response-function analy- sis indicated that there were significant correlations between tree growth and climatic factors in all the three regions, among which precipitation was the principal. With decreasing precipitation, the response of tree-ring widths to increasing temperature changed from a positive to a negative correlation. As for precipitation, the positive relationship to tree-ring width always dominates. It could be expected that with increased temperature and decreased precipitation, the importance of precipitation to tree growth would increase, and the response of tree growth to environmental changes would also increase. This study emphasizes the importance of regional-scale investigations into the biosphere-climate interac- tions. The results of this research indicated a substantial increment of tree-ring radial growth as a re- sult of warmer and wetter climate in the eastern regions. However, climate change will have less effect on forest growth and primary production in the western regions.     

新疆树木年轮研究特色

本对40多年来新疆树木年轮研究工作做了简要总结．发现有以下研究特色：1．在年轮水学方面开启了我国利用树木年轮重建河流径流量和河流径流深度场研究的先河；2．在年轮气候学方面，主要是利用树木年轮重建空间上大尺度的气候要素变化，开创我国沙漠地区树木年轮研究工作，利用树木年轮重建某地区单旬降水和山区降水日数，研究了雪与树木年轮的关系以及冰期与降水的关系，创立大样本、多年表、面控制的采轮布局策略等；3．在年轮与环境方面利用树木年轮做春小麦气候产量预报，建立了树木年轮与大气环流因子的关系等。     

Tree-ring based PDSI reconstruction since AD 1842 in the Ortindag Sand Land, east Inner Mongolia

epartment of Wood Science, University of Hamburg, Hamburg D-21031, GermanyBased on three Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis Carr.) and one Meyer spruce (Picea meyeri Rehd. et Wils.) ring-width chronologies, a 163-year drought history was reconstructed in the eastern Ortindag Sand Land. All tree-ring chronologies show large inter-annual variations and strong common signals and fairly consistent variation between different chronologies, indicating that they are excellent proxy of regional climate. A regional chronology (RC) was established by averaging the four standard chronologies and further employed for the analysis and climatic reconstruction. The analysis revealed that tree growth is primarily limited by low precipitation in February-March and June-July and high temperature in May-July. In addition, RC has high correlations with the monthly Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) prior to and during the growing season because the PDSI considers the accumulation of the droughts. Response function analysis revealed that RC only exhibits significant correlations with the PDSI in June and July (close to the 95% significance level in May). Because May―July is a critical period for tree growth, the average May-July PDSI (PDSI5-7) was reconstructed back to 1842 using RC in the Ortindag Sand Land. The reconstruction can explain 52% of the PDSI variance and the equation was rather stable over time. It agrees well with the variation of the average dryness/wetness indices in North China,and captures the decline process of the East Asian summer monsoon since the mid-1960s. It is worth noting that the Ortindag Sand Land has experienced the most severe drought in the recent 40 years based on the 163-year drought reconstruction. Like summer precipitation in North China the reconstructed PDSI5-7 also displays a 20-year oscillation.     

祁连山东部地区高分辨率气候记录研究

利用采自祁连山东部的祁连圆柏树芯样本 ,建立标准化年表 ,并将标准年表的树轮指数与采样点附近的天祝乌鞘岭气象站的温度和降水进行响应函数和相关函数分析 .结果表明 ,树轮标准年表序列与当地 3～ 4月份降水成显著正相关 ,相关系数达 0 .5 2 5 ,不同检验分析方法均说明 ,祁连圆柏树轮宽度年表可以用来重建这一地区近 2 80年来的春季降水变化 .重建的近 2 80年来研究区少雨春季与毗邻的河西走廊干旱区旱灾的历史记录相吻合 ;研究还发现 ,祁连山东部地区春季降水对近 10 0年来全球变暖出现明显的相反响应 ,春季降水有明显的减少趋势 .奇异谱和功率谱分析表明 ,近 30 0年来研究区春季降水主要有准 19a和 15 a两个显著周期     

胡杨径向生长与气候环境响应分析

 胡杨作为内陆干旱荒漠地区树龄较长的阔叶树种,是开展过去气候环境变化研究的宝贵材料.为了探讨胡杨树轮生长指标与气候环境之间的相关关系,本文在综述胡杨树种概况和生长区域气候环境特征的基础上,以新疆艾比湖流域胡杨为研究材料,利用树木年轮气候学分析方法,建立了艾比湖地区181年来的胡杨宽度年表.对宽度年表与精河、蔡家湖气象站的温度、降水序列进行了相关分析,结果表明,树轮宽度指标与冬半年降水呈正相关关系,相关系数最大为0.408,两个气象站中,精河站与年表相关系数高于蔡家湖站.通过与其他学者在该地区的研究成果对比分析,发现艾比湖胡杨树轮宽度指数高低时段与艾比湖湖面变化有很好的一致性,这与艾比湖地区地下水和湖面变化有密切关系,与胡杨生长受地下水变化影响的研究结论一致.     

东天山迎风坡与高海拔区域降水效率对比研究

利用WRF中尺度数值模式对2015年4月16~17日发生在新疆天山地区一次降水过程进行数值模拟研究。重点对比了迎风坡与高海拔区域降水效率的差异,进而分析产生这种差异的原因。结果表明:迎风坡的降水效率大于高海拔区域的降水效率,降水过程发展旺盛阶段,降水效率达到最大。迎风坡的降水主要由雪、霰融化为雨水产生,高海拔区域降水主要由雪产生。该微物理机制的差异造成在降水集中时段,虽然高海拨区域空中总水凝物多于迎风坡,但降水效率低于迎风坡,最终导致降水强度小于迎风坡。     

玛纳斯河流域降水与径流变化及其人类活动的影响

玛纳斯河流域发源于北天山中段,消失于准噶尔盆地西缘,是天山北麓流量最大的内流河.河流贯穿于山地-绿洲-荒漠系统,地表过程复杂.其绿洲受人类活动影响较大.高山区的冰雪融水和玛纳斯河上游的降水是该流域的主要径流水源.文章根据玛纳斯河流域基本气象台站建站以来的月平均气温、降水和年平均气温、降水和流量的资料,使用概率统计时间序列方法分析了流域气温、降水和径流的年内、年际变化特点并对突变年代做了检测,就径流对气候变化的响应做进一步的探讨.结果表明：玛纳斯河流域升温趋势显著,50年温度序列Mann-Kendall方法突变检验,通过了α=0.05的置信检验,表明气温在1995年发生了由低到高的突变,气候变暖主要在冬季.降水1983年发生了由少到多的突变,降水增加主要在春季和夏季.进一步分析表明玛纳斯河流域径流变化与降水变化有密切的正相关性,与气温变化的关系较为复杂.     

Hish-strensth wrousht masnesium alloy with dense nano-scale spherical precipitate

This paper reported the influences of Yb addition on the precipitate and mechanical properties of wrought magnesium alloy ZK60. The ingots of ZK60-1.78Yb （wt%, 0.26 at%） alloys were cast using permanent mould and extruded at 370~C. By means of TEM and HRTEM, it was observed that Yb affected the precipitate and precipitation of ZK60-1.78Yb alloys significantly. Dynamic precipitation occurred in the as-extruded alloy and spherical nano-scale precipitate with high density and homogeneity exhibited in the aged alloys. The precipitate particles were about 5-20 nm in diameter, 10-30 nm in average space length. The tensile test results showed that the ZK60-1.78Yb alloy had excellent precipitation strengthening response with the maximum tensile strength 417.5 MPa at ambient temperature.     

Temporal and spatial variations in the Palmer Drought Severity Index over the past four centuries in arid, semiarid, and semihumid East Asia

Based on a database of 106 annually resolved tree-ring chronologies and 244 Palmer Drought Severity Index(PDSI)grid data,we attempted to reconstruct gridded spatial drought patterns in each year over the past four centuries in the arid,semiarid,and semihumid East Asia.The results showed that these regions mainly experienced drought events during the periods from AD 1601 to AD 1652,AD 1680 to AD 1718,AD 1779 to AD 1791,AD 1807 to AD 1824,AD 1846 to AD 1885,and AD 1961 to AD 1999.In the middle of the 16th century,severe droughts occurred mainly in North China;during the period from AD 1876 to AD 1878,droughts occurred in most parts of northern China;and from the 1920s to 1940s,catastrophic drought events spread across almost all of northern China and Mongolia.These historical drought events caused severe ecological and environmental problems and substantially affected the development of human society.In these regions,temperature and summer monsoon precipitation are the main factors influencing drought events.In western areas,PDSI and temperature exhibit a close relationship,whereas in eastern areas,summer monsoon rainfall is the dominant factor influencing variations in PDSI.     

Relative humidity reconstruction for northwestern China's Altay Mountains using tree-ring δ~(18)O

Relative humidity is an important factor in water and water vapor feedback cycles.In this study,we established a 222-year annual tree-ring δ~(18)O chronology for Siberian larch(Larix sibirica Ldb.)from the Altay Mountains in northwestern China.Climate response analyses revealed that the relative humidity was the primary factor limiting tree-ring δ~(18)O fractionation.Based on our analysis,tree-ring δ~(18)O can be used to reconstruct the July–August relative humidity based on both a reasonable mechanism of tree-ring δ~(18)O fractionation and a statistically significant regression model.We used this model to reconstruct variations in the July–August relative humidity,and the model explained 47.4% of the total variation in the measured relative humidity data from 1961 to 2011.The relative humidity in the study area increased from 1900 to the 1990s and decreased thereafter.Two regime-shift dry periods were detected during the study period(one from 1817 to 1830 and the other from 2004 to 2011).     

桂林市近56年降水结构的时间变化分析

以桂林市1951～2006年的地面逐日降水资料为统计数据,采用线性回归方法,对桂林市近56年的年降水量、不同降水强度日数、降水极值、最大日降水量、最大连续降水量等指标的变化进行分析,并用降水距平百分率方法分析了56年来桂林市干旱事件发生的程度.结果显示:56年来桂林市降水量呈现略微上升的趋势,小、中雨强度的日数在略微增加,大雨以上的日数减少,而降水总日数也在减少,高强度降水集中程度加强;最长连续无降水日增加,降水量呈现集中的趋势;干旱的发生次数增多;近56年的降水量的变化是多种因素综合作用的结果.     

Reconstructing mean maximum temperatures of May-August from tree-ring maximum density in North Da Hinggan Mountains, China

Tree-ring samples from Dahurian Larch (Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Rupr.) were collected at three sites in the northern Da Hinggan Mountains. Using samples measured by X-ray densitometry, measurements of tree-ring maximum latewood density chronologies of two sites were found to be significantly correlated with summer temperature. These two sites’ tree-ring series were combined to form a single standard regional chronology. This was used to reconstruct the May-August monthly mean maximum temperature for the period 1855-2008 AD, and it explained 39.5% of the total temperature variance. In the past 154 years, there were 4 cold periods (1874-1893, 1927-1948, 1951-1960 and 1992-2002) and 4 warm periods (1855-1873, 1894-1916, 1961-1991 and 2003-2008). The summer temperature rose more obviously than that of winter in this region. Having been validated by other temperature reconstructions from the surrounding area, the reconstruction could indicate the summer temperature changes of large-scale regions.     

Reconstructing mean maximum temperature of growing season from the maximum density of the Schrenk Spruce in Yili, Xinjiang, China

To study the historical temperature variation in Yili of Xinjiang, the tree-ring chronologies of maximum density （MXD） and tree-ring width （TRW） were established with the Schrenk Spruce （Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey） collected from six sites to analyze the characteristics and ability of response to climate change. The results suggest that the MXD chronology of the Schrenk Spruce from different sampling sites responded to climate change well and were positively correlated with the mean maximum temperature and the mean temperature from April to August in the study area. The mean maximum temperature anomaly from April to August, spanning the years from 1848 to 2000, was reconstructed by three MXD chronologies which were selected by stepwise regression. The reconstructed function was stable and explained 56.2% of the variance. The reconstructed results indicated a cold span of 153 years in spring and summer from the beginning of the 1950s to the beginning of the 1970s in the Yili valley. No strongly increasing tendency was detected in the mean maximum temperature anomaly from April to August during this reconstructed period.     

Reconstruction of May—July precipitation in the north Helan Mountain, Inner Mongolia since A.D. 1726 from tree-ring late-wood widths

Inrecentyears,greatprogressofdendroclimatologystudyhasbeenmadeinChina,andlotsofvaluabledatahavebeenobtained.Theclimaticfactors,suchastem-perature,precipitation,etc.,havebeenreconstructedonthebasisoftree-ringdataforthepastseveralcenturies[1—5].Thesedatahaveplayed(orwillplay)animportantroleinbothregionalandglobalchangeresearches[6].Sofar,however,tree-ringdatafromtheboundaryofthedeserttoloessareainnorthwestChinaaresparse[7].Thisstudywillusethetree-ringdataintermsofthestatisticalmethodtoreconstr…     

Fluctuation of Picea timberline and paleo-environment on the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains during the late Holocene

The fluctuation of alpine timberline, which can serve as a good indicator for Holocene climate, is the syn-thetically effective results of many environmental fac-tors during geological and historical periods and mod-ern times. In recent years, researches …     

Tree ring based streamflow reconstruction for the Upper Yellow River over the past 1234 years

We established a Juniperus przewalski tree ring width chronology, based on tree ring cores collected from the A’nyêmaqên Mountains. Statistical analysis showed that the chronology was highly correlated with instrumental streamflow records from previous August to current July from the Tangnaihai Station in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, with a correlation coefficient of 0.656. Streamflow for the upper reaches of the Yellow River was reconstructed for the past 1234 years. Low flow periods for the 11-year averaged streamflow reconstruction were definite as lower than mean plus 1 standard deviation, and high flow periods were higher than mean minus 1 standard deviation. Over the past 1234 years, high flows occurred 18 times, and low flows occurred 12 times. The main low flow periods were identified as AD 1140–1156, AD 1295–1309, AD 1473–1500, and AD 1820–1847, and the main high flow periods were identified as AD 846–873, and AD 1375–1400. Extremely low streamflow over the reconstruction period was seen during the late 15th century, coinciding with a widespread drought phenomenon, which took place in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau over the same period. Reconstructed streamflow shows significant low-frequency variability, which is in line with drought variability of neighboring regions, as inferred from tree rings and other proxies. Multi-taper spectral analysis suggests the existence of significant periods of 2–5, 22, 35–38, 55–62, and 114–227 years, particularly significant for cyclic variations of years 159 and 36.     

近50年新疆天山山区主要气候要素变化

利用天山山区具有较好代表性的10个气象台站1960-2009年的历史气候资料,运用线性倾向估计对天山山区近50年来气候变化的主要特征进行了分析。结果表明:近50年来,天山山区能量供给因子中的最高、最低、平均温度温度均呈明显的上升趋势,而日照时数、温度日较差呈明显的下降趋势,云量的变化趋势不明显。空气动力因子风速的下降趋势显著;湿度因子中空气相对湿度略有下降趋势,而水汽压、降水量略有上升趋势。受此影响,近50年天山山区气候总体趋于干向湿发展的趋势,气候朝暖湿方向变化。     

A physically-based statistical forecast model for the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley summer rainfall

A new approach to forecast the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley summer rainfall in June-August （JJA） is proposed in this paper. The year-to-year increment of the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley is forecasted and hence the summer precipitation could be predicted. In this paper, DY is defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year （year-to-year increment）. YR denotes the seasonal mean precipitation rate of the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley summer rainfall. After analyzing the atmospheric circulation anomalies in winter and spring that were associated with the DY of YR, six key predictors for the DY of YR have been identified. Then the forecast model for the DY of YR is established by using the multi-linear regression method. The predictors for the DY of YR are Antarctic Oscillation, the meridional wind shear between 850hPa and 200hPa over the Indo-Australian region, and so on. The prediction model shows a high skill for the hindcast during 1997-2006, with the average relative root mean square error is at 18%. The model can even reproduce the upward and downward trends of YR during 1984--1998 and 1998--2006. Considering that the current operational forecast models of the summer precipitation over the China region have the average forecast scores at 60%--70% and that the prediction skill for the middle-lower reaches of Yangtze River Valley summer precipitation remains quite limited up to now, thus this new approach to predict the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation over the Yangtze River Valley （and hence the summer precipitation itself） has the potential to significantly increase the operational forecast skill of the summer precipitation.     

Water isotope variations in the snow pack and summer precipitation at July 1 Glacier, Qilian Mountains in northwest China

This paper presents the stable isotope data of the snow pack and summer precipitation collected at the July 1 Glacier, Qilian Mountains in northwest China and analyses their relationships with meteorologi- cal factors. On an event scale, there is no temperature effect on the δ 18O values in the summer pre- cipitation, whereas the amount effect is shown to be clear. By tracing the moisture transport history and comparing the precipitation with its isotopic composition, it is shown that this amount effect not only reflects the change in moisture trajectory, which is related to the monsoon activities, but is also associated with the cooling degree of vapor in the cloud, the evaporation of falling raindrops and the isotopic exchange between the falling drops and the atmospheric vapor. As very little precipitation occurs in winter, the snow pack profile mainly represents the precipitation in the other three seasons. There are low precipitation δ 18O ratios in summer and high ratios in spring and autumn. The Meteoric Water Line (MLW) for the summer precipitation is δ D = 7.6 δ 18O 13.3, which is similar to that at Delingha, located in the south rim of the Qilian Mountains. The MWL for the snow pack is δ D = 10.4 δ 18O 41.4, showing a large slope and intercept. The deuterium excess (d) of the snow pack is positively correlated with δ 18O, indicating that both d and δ 18O decrease from spring to summer and increase from early autumn to early spring. This then results in the high slope and intercept of the MWL. Sea- sonal fluctuations of d in the snow pack indicate the change of moisture source and trajectory. During spring and autumn, the moisture originates from continental recycling or rapid evaporation over rela- tively warm water bodies like Black, Caspian and Aral Seas when the dry westerly air masses pass over them, hence very high d values in precipitation are formed. During summer, the monsoon is responsi- ble for the low d values. This indicates that the monsoon can reach the western part of the Qilian Mountains.     

Millennial temperature reconstruction based on tree-ring widths of Qilian juniper from Wulan, Qinghai Province, China

The climate of the past 1000 years is an important context for evaluating the recent climate warming. However, there are few 1000-year-long climate reconstructions with annual resolution in the Qinghal-Tibet Plateau. In this paper, a dendroclimatic analysis was conducted for the radial growth of Qilian juniper from the upper forest limit in Wulan, Qinghai Province. The results of correlation analysis between the tree-ring widths and the climate variables indicate that the growth of junipers at the upper forest limit is mainly limited by low temperatures of September, November and February of the pregrowth season, and July of the current growth season. There is no significant correlation between the tree-ring widths and precipitation. A mean temperature from the previous year＇s September to the current year＇s April was reconstructed for the Wulan area since A.D. 1000. The reconstruction can explain 40.8% of the instrumental variance in the calibration period （1856-2002）. The reconstruction shows that the 20th century is the warmest 100 years, and the 1990s is the warmest decade during the past 1000 years, while the coldest 100 years and decade occur at 1600-1699 and 1642-1651, respectively. The variations are verified well by the temperature reconstruction of the middle Qilian Mountain （QL） and the total organic carbon （TOC） in the Qinghai Lake sediments. The comparison of our reconstruction with the annual temperature reconstruction of extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere suggests that the climate of Wulan during the Medieval Warm Period is of obvious regional specialty, but there was a good response to the climate of hemispheric scales during the recent 400 years.