An intelligent business forecaster for strategic business planning

In this paper an intelligent business forecaster for strategic business planning is presented. The forecaster is basically a multi‐layered fuzzy rule‐based neural network which integrates the basic elements and functions of a traditional fuzzy logic inference into a neural network structure. It has also been shown to be superior to two commercially available business forecasters in terms of learning speed and forecasting accuracy. This paper presents the architectural design of the intelligent business forecaster and the results of a study that has been carried out to compare its performance with that of the others. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The ability of human mothers to identify the hunger cry signals of their own new-born infants during the lying-in period

Zusammenfassung Es wurden die Fähigkeiten der Mütter geprüft, das Hungerschreisignal ihrer eigenen Neugeborenen während des Wochenbettes zu identifizieren. Man hat festgestellt, dass es für etwa 1/3 der getesteten Mütter möglich ist, vorher auf Band aufgenommene Stimmen der eigenen Kinder schon in diesem frühen Alter wiederzuerkennen.     

Autoregressive-asymmetric moving average models for business cycle data

Much business cycle research is based on an assumption of symmetric cycles, though it is frequently argued that the downturns are steeper and more short-lived than the upturns; implying cyclical asymmetries. A new class of nonlinear autoregressive-asymmetric moving average models is introduced. These models are able to deal with symmetric as well as asymmetric phenomena. A likelihood estimation procedure and a Wald test statistic for symmetry are presented. Evidence of asymmetry is found in US real GNP growth rates.     

Forecasting the business cycle without using minimum autocorrelation factors

We introduce a forecasting technique based on multivariate ideas previously applied in remote sensing. The approach has the trivial but nonetheless fundamental purpose of dividing the information inherent in the time series into important and unimportant. Important information is used for forecasting purposes while the unimportant is discarded. Although related to vector autoregression, giving asymptotically the same estimates, there are reasons to believe that the approach gives better precision of parameter estimates for finite samples as well as more precise predictions.     

Improved business planning through an awareness of political cycles

Can business planning be improved if more attention is paid to underlying political cycles? This paper compares practitioner and researcher perspectives on this issue. While practioners stand to gain useful insights from a careful examination of past political cycles, these insights may be disconfirmed by rigorous tests carried out by researchers. In this paper we isolate and examine five hypotheses from the literature on the political-economic cycle.     

The accuracy of individual and group forecasts from business outlook surveys

This paper reports on the accuracy of quarterly multiperiod predictions of inflation, real growth, unemployment and percentage changes in nominal GNP and two of its more volatile components. The survey data are highly differentiated; they cover 79 professional forecasters (mostly economists, analysts and corporate executives). Combining corresponding predictions from different sources can result in significant gains; thus the group mean forecasts are on the average over time more accurate than most of the corresponding sets of individual forecasts. But there is also a moderate degree of consistency in the relative performance of a sufficient number of the survey members, as evidenced in positive rank correlations among ratios of the individual to group root mean square errors.     

Tuning up mind's pattern to nature's own idea: Eddington's early twenties case for variational derivatives

This paper sets out to show how Eddington's early twenties case for variational derivatives significantly bears witness to a steady and consistent shift in focus from a resolute striving for objectivity towards “selective subjectivism” and structuralism. While framing his so-called “Hamiltonian derivatives” along the lines of previously available variational methods allowing to derive gravitational field equations from an action principle, Eddington assigned them a theoretical function of his own devising in The Mathematical Theory of Relativity (1923). I make clear that two stages should be marked out in Eddington's train of thought if the meaning of such variational derivatives is to be adequately assessed. As far as they were originally intended to embody the mind's collusion with nature by linking atomicity of matter with atomicity of action, variational derivatives were at first assigned a dual role requiring of them not only to express mind's craving for permanence but also to tune up mind's privileged pattern to “Nature's own idea”. Whereas at a later stage, as affine field theory would provide a framework for world-building, such “Hamiltonian differentiation” would grow out of tune through gauge-invariance and, by disregarding how mathematical theory might precisely come into contact with actual world, would be turned into a mere heuristic device for structural knowledge.     

The teachers/practitioners corner forecasting in business schools: A survey

The study of forecasting techniques has received increased attention in recent years. How to incorporate this topic into the business school curriculum is a frequent subject of discussion. The purpose of this study was to determine whether forecasting is being taught in business schools and how it is incorporated into the curriculum. The survey instrument was sent to 622 member institutions of the American Assembly of Collegiate schools of Business. The importance of teaching forecasting techniques at both the undergraduate and graduate level was investigated.     

The maternal protection reaction against a mother's rejection of her own larva in Salamandra salamandra L]

In vitro experiments have shown that maternal spleen cells from Salamandra salamandra are cytotoxic to cells from their embryos. This reaction can be inhibited by maternal serum. In this paper, we show that maternal serum protection acts through two effects: by inactivating spleen cells and by protecting embryonic cells. The more numerous the embryos are in a female, the stronger the protection is. The effect of the maternal serum does not appear to be individual specific.     

Forecasting for business planning: A case study of IBM product sales

This is a case study of a closely managed product. Its purpose is to determine whether time-series methods can be appropriate for business planning. By appropriate, we mean two things: whether these methods can model and estimate the special events or features that are often present in sales data; and whether they can forecast accurately enough one, two and four quarters ahead to be useful for business planning. We use two time-series methods, Box-Jenkins modeling and Holt-Winters adaptive forecasting, to obtain forecasts of shipments of a closely managed product. We show how Box-Jenkins transfer-function models can account for the special events in the data. We develop criteria for choosing a final model which differ from the usual methods and are specifically directed towards maximizing the accuracy of next-quarter, next-half-year and next-full-year forecasts. We find that the best Box-Jenkins models give forecasts which are clearly better than those obtained from Holt-Winters forecast functions, and are also better than the judgmental forecasts of IBM's own planners. In conclusion, we judge that Box-Jenkins models can be appropriate for business planning, in particular for determining at the end of the year baseline business-as-usual annual and monthly forecasts for the next year, and in mid-year for resetting the remaining monthly forecasts.     

Forecasting and the database: An analysis of databases for international business

A major consideration in the selection of a forecasting method for a specific situation is the type of pattern in the data. Before the data pattern is identified, the forecaster must recognize the dependence of any forecasting method upon the accompanying reliable database. This issue is discussed in the paper with reference to databases for international business.     

Quarterly forecasts of the italian business cycle by means of monthly economic indicators

Recent years have witnessed a growing availability of high-frequency indicators which can be used to forecast future economic activity. This paper shows how some of the widely known monthly economic indicators at present available in Italy can be used in a systematic and coordinated manner to forecast the main variables of the National Accounts. In order to reduce as much as possible the amount of judgment in the analysis of the business cycle, a model-based approach is adopted. Thus, a pseudo macro-econometric model of the Italian economy is built, which can be used to produce forecasts one semester ahead of the last National Accounts data release. The model can be used autonomously as well as in combination with the Bank of Italy's quarterly econometric model.     

Circadian rhythms and their mechanisms

Summary Recent work concerning the number, site(s) and means of adjustment to the 24-h day of internal clocks is reviewed. Work on humans is considered wherever possible though much of the work involving ablation and in vitro techniques necessarily involves other species, particularly rodents. It is concluded that, though recent advances have been impressive and present techniques appear likely to continue to produce results and stimulate discussion, more attention should be directed to considering the circadian system as a whole rather than as an assemblage of individual components.     

Circadian rhythms and their mechanisms

Recent work concerning the number, site(s) and means of adjustment to the 24-h day of internal clocks is reviewed. Work on humans is considered wherever possible though much of the work involving ablation and in vitro techniques necessarily involves other species, particularly rodents. It is concluded that, though recent advances have been impressive and present techniques appear likely to continue to produce results and stimulate discussion, more attention should be directed to considering the circadian system as a whole rather than as an assemblage of individual components.     

Measuring the probability of a business cycle turning point by using a multivariate qualitative hidden Markov model

A two‐step procedure to produce a statistical measure of the probability of being in an accelerating or decelerating phase of economic activity is proposed. It consists of, first, an extraction of the individual linear innovations of a set of relevant macroeconomic variables whose signs are accumulated into a qualitative vector process and, second, of a factor analysis applied to this vector. The factor process is a two‐state Markov process of order one whose states are described as favourable and unfavourable. Estimated on French business surveys, this measure appears to be a competitive coincident indicator. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

HPLC of cephalosporins and their oxa-derivatives

Summary The presence of the oxygen atom in place of the sulfur atom has significant impact on the polarity of the -lactam derivative. This has been illustrated by direct comparison of HPLC data of 4 different cephalosporin derivatives and their oxa analogues.Acknowledgment. We gratefully acknowledge the cooperation of Drs Yuji Sendo, Toshiro Konoike, Masayuki Murakami and Mitsuru Yoshioka of Shionogi Research Laboratories, Shionogi and Co., Ltd, Fukushima-ku, Osaka, 553, Japan, who synthesized the oxa--lactams and made them available for this study.