“2000年的中国”的系统研究

“2000年的中国”,这课题是国家重点研究项目之一,我们参加了这项工作。“2000年的中国”研究的目的是为了实现十二大提出的战略目标,为国家、为党中央和国务院进行决策和制定政策,提供有科学根据的参考资料;为各地区、各行业、各项事业的发展规划的制定,提供有科学根据的参考资料;并且,经过对2000年的中国的宏伟发展蓝     

城市交通仿真中的延误计算模型对比分析

论述了三种城市交通仿真(HCM2000、CORSIM软件、VISSIM软件)中的延误计算模型,在不同的交通流状态下,应用此三种延误计算模型进行了单点固定控制交叉口控制周期延误的仿真计算,并采用典型的美国城市交叉口实例进行了对比分析,得出以下结论:在交叉口接近饱和状态的情况下,HCM2000的延误计算模型得到的周期延误最小,在过饱和的情况下,HCM2000计算得到的周期延误最大.     

网络数据库系统中数据统计的并行处理

以上网费计算为例，叙述在Windows 2000局域网中用SQL Server 2000数据库管理系统实现数据统计并行处理的设计思想，这种并行算法提高了统计效率，确保了系统数据的安全性，而且能够做到在统计过程中某工作站的撤消与插入不影响最终统计结果。     

我国系统工程学科的渊源、现状和展望

本文介绍我国系统工程学科七十年代末期以来的主要进展情况和现状、国内外差距、国外今后的大致发展动向和中国系统工程学会对我国2000年系统工程的展望。作为重点的现状部分又重点介绍了系统工程应用的发展和理论研究的进展两部分。应用发展中叙述了社会工程、军事系统工程、农业系统工程和工程系统工程四方面的主要进展情况,而以2000年预测为背景,注意了基本概念和方法论的探讨和发展动向的探索。对2000年预测的图景,作了稍为具体的概括。     

“2000年的中国”的系统研究和结论

全文分为四部分:第一部分阐述了我们所研究的2000年中国的图象;第二部分论述了在“2000年的中国”研究时所用的模型体系;第三部分介绍了战略和政策体系;第四部分是与国际同类型工作的比较及若干体会。     

PARAMETER ESTIMATION METHODOLOGY FOR NONLINEAR SYSTEMS： APPLICATION TO INDUCTION MOTOR

1. Introduction In recent years, there has been a lot of research concerning parameter estimation (Akatsu and Kawamura 2000, LandauAnderson and De Bruyne 2000, Marino Peresada and Tomei 2000, Floret and Lamnabhi-Lagarrigue 2001, Pavlov and Zaremba 2001, Floret 2002, Kenné 2003). In linear systems and in some specific nonlinear cases, parameter estimation is performed using the least square algorithm (Walter and Pronzato 1994, Landau 1998). The application of this technique in the case…     

深市A股收入公告效应的实证研究

运用2000年以前的年报收入数据计算深市A股的标准非期望收入(SUE)，并利用指标值排斥，构建投资组合，运用事件研究法对深市A股2000年的公告效应进行了实证研究，结果证明中国股市并不存在显著的“收入公告效应(Post—Earnings—Announcement Drift)”，财务报表的收入数据与股价的走势基本相反；检验利用1999年的SUE值排斥构建的投资组合在2000年中报和年报前后的非正常收益率，结果并不能证明中国股市存在“反应不足”的现象。     

应用AMSAA-BISE模型提高采集站的可靠性

应用AMSAA-BISE多台系统同步可靠性增长模型,对35台SK-1004采集站(即ATU)在实验室作高低温试验的条件下,进行了180h的可靠性增长试验,使其MTBF由现场使用条件下的560h增长到实验室高低温条件下的2000h以上,对安徽野外施工数据作统计分析表明,在现场使用条件下,其MTBF的点估计值超过了2000h。     

基于最优分解和方向加权的静止图像压缩算法

基于小波变换的JPEG2000是新一代静止图像压缩标准,具有很多优点。但是由于二维小波是一维小波的张量积,它只有有限的方向,因而不能较好地捕捉图像的方向信息。基于方向滤波的小波 contourlet变换(wavelet based contourlet transform, WBCT)可以弥补这个不足,它比小波变换能更稀疏地表示图像信息。把WBCT嵌入在JPEG2000框架中,并结合其性质,提出了基于最优分解和方向加权的静止图像压缩算法。实验结果表明,该算法在中低码率下可以更好地表现图像的轮廓和强纹理信息,在高码率下也能较好地编码图像的弱纹理信息。不管是参照客观质量评价方法,还是凭主观视觉感受,该算法的压缩性能均优于JPEG2000。     

法国的幻影2000战斗机

幻影2000是法国政府于1975年12月18日决定选用的超音速战斗机种。计划要求,到八十年代中期以后它将代替幻影Ⅲ作为法国空军的主力战斗机。这种飞机主要发展三种型号:防空截击型、战斗轰炸型和出口型。其主要特点是:技术先进,结构重量轻,气动特性和飞行性能好,续航能力强。幻影2000的原型机自1978年3月起已先后进行了数百次飞行试验,经过改进、定型、生产,现已开始装备部队。 这里译载的一组短文比较集中地反映了幻影2000的战术技术性能和武器装备情况,对此感兴趣的读者,定能从中获得必要的信息。     

One-parent families--and the dependent children living in them--in Great Britain

This article provides updated final estimates of the number of one-parent families, and of the number of dependent children living in them, from 1995 to 1997, inclusive, together with provisional estimates for 1998 to 2000. The existing methodology has been extended so that additional alternative estimates have been generated from which to assess the "best estimates". The number of one-parent families in Great Britain is provisionally estimated at 1.75 million in 2000, and the number of deppendent children living in those families as 2.9 million.     

SDS2000:一个定性定量结合的战略决策综合集成研讨与模拟环境

高层次的作战模拟所采用的方法完全不同于传统的方法,不同领域专家参与新局面策研讨是模拟过程中十分重要的环节。国外发展的讨论式对抗模拟方法和国内提出的从定性到定量的综合集成研讨厅方法,为实现高层次的计算机作战模拟提供了理论上的指导。本文通过国防大学研制的SDS2000系统,对讨论式对抗模拟和综合集成研讨厅的总体设计和实现技术进行了讨论,介绍了SDS2000的总体设计思想、系统的总体结构和主要工作方式。     

A Maturing of Systems Thinking? Evidence from Three Perspectives

This paper reviews trends in systems theory/thinking from the 1970s to the early 2000s. It proposes a maturation of the field based on certain conceptual and methodological advances that have sought to liberate systems thinking from earlier strictures. An edited dialogue among three prominent systems thinkers from different systems schools—Merrelyn Emery, Bob Flood, and Eric Wolstenholme—provides evidence. Similarities and differences are identified, complementarities among the schools are derived and analyzed, and trajectories for future research are indicated.     

基于MSProject2000VBA技术的网络资源优化计算机模型设计

分析了工程施工网络计划"工期一定,资源均衡"的优化方法,给出了相应的优化数学模型,依据该数学模型设计出一种基于MSProject2000VBA技术的资源优化计算机模型.通过实例说明了该模型的可行性和有效性.     

Rapid Institutional Appraisal

A week-long intensive process of staff development and induction called Rapid Institutional Appraisal (RIA) was conducted in November 2000 in the Systems Discipline, Centre for Complexity and Change (CCC), at the Open University. We report the systemic roots and characteristics of the RIA as designed from traditions of soft systems methodology and rapid rural appraisal. Our experiences arising from our own use of RIA are described and the wider implications for organizational learning in a complex organization discussed. While acknowledging limitations with this RIA event, we argue that RIA offers a potential model for staff development for adaptive use in different contexts and on varying scales. The process builds on principles of "conversation" and "multiple perspectives" as the touchstone for establishing a purposeful community of practice.     

贸易战背景下我国典型制造业转移路径的启示

文章基于一种新提出的产业转移价值量核算方法，对2000-2007年及2007-2014年世界产业转移进行了核算，对我国受中美贸易摩擦影响的典型制造业"计算机、电子及光学产品制造业"和"纺织业"在两时期的转移路径进行分析，为这两个行业应对贸易摩擦的策略提供了若干建议.结果显示，对于"计算机、电子及光学产品制造业"，进一步加强本土产品对进口品的替代是应对贸易摩擦的最有效手段；此外，其他发展中经济体与欧洲经济体分别是其最终产品与中间产品的主要潜在外需增长点.对于"纺织业"，合理有序组织产业对外转移是应对贸易摩擦的有效手段；在对外转移的进程中，严防产业空心化是重中之重；在对外转移的承接国选择上，除了发展中经济体，还可以考虑具有传统"纺织业"比较优势的老牌新兴经济体.     

Interim 2001-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and constituent countries

This article describes new 2001-based national population projections which were carried out following the publication in September 2002 of the first results of the 2001 Census. These "interim" projections, carried out by the Government Actuary in consultation with the Registrars General, take preliminary account of the results of the Census which showed that the base population used in previous projections was overestimated. The interim projections also incorporate a reduced assumption of net international migration to the United Kingdom, informed by the first results of the 2001 Census and taking account of more recent migration information. The population of the United Kingdom is now projected to increase from an estimated 58.8 million in 2001 to reach 63.2 million by 2026. The projected population at 2026 is about 1.8 million (2.8 per cent) lower than in the previous (2000-based) projections.     

New Agoras and Old Institutions: The Case of Human Rights

Existing human rights doctrine and enforcement structures often fail to protect human welfare. The new agora project (Jenlink and Banathy 2002) offers a structure to democratically re-build human rights. To examine the role of new agoras in re-crafting old institutions, I begin by identifying the context of human rights: globalization, diverse identities, and democracy. After analyzing the impact of diversity on democratic structures, I introduce human rights as conceived by Banathy’s (2000) Third Generation. With this in mind, I am prepared to examine the challenges and opportunities for shaping a new operationalization of human rights using the new agora structure.

Re-framing Prostitution in Indonesia: A Critical Systemic Approach

This study applies critical systems thinking as a process to respond to and offer recommendations to address prostitution policy in Indonesia. The article addresses social, economic and environmental aspects of prostitution. The analysis centres on the way in which prostitution is framed by the different interest groups in Indonesia, and highlights the current crisis in policy-making praxis in Indonesia. The article develops a case for systemic policy praxis, and aims to: (1) Make a case for re-framing the issue of prostitution in the sense that it addresses the ‘capabilities’ prostituted women and children ought to have (see Sen in Development as freedom, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1999 and Nussbaum in Women and human development: the capabilities approach, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 2000). (2) Re-frame the policy response to prostitution to address life chances and human dignity. (3) Assert that the lack of attention to a just and fair human rights for all is due to a policy-making gap where ‘systemic intervention’ is required to restore human dignity.     

鞍山市生态系统服务价值时空变化研究

分析鞍山市1995～2000年生态系统服务价值时空变化规律,为鞍山市可持续发展提供决策依据.应用Costanza生态系统服务价值计算公式,采用谢高地等人的中国陆地生态系统单位面积生态服务价值表进行计算.结果表明:1995～2000年,鞍山市生态系统服务价值从828.75亿元下降到819.36亿元,下降1.13%;生态系统服务价值空间分布不均,2000年,岫岩县生态系统服务价值占鞍山市的57.7%,鞍山市区仅占4.7%;不同土地利用类型对生态系统服务价值的贡献率也不相同,2000年,林地占总生态系统服务价值的68.02%,耕地占19.22%,湿地占10.81%,草地占0.65%,水域占1.29%.图4,表3,参11.