The utility of Naturalness,and how its application to Quantum Electrodynamics envisages the Standard Model and Higgs boson

With the Higgs boson discovery and no new physics found at the LHC, confidence in Naturalness as a guiding principle for particle physics is under increased pressure. We wait to see if it proves its mettle in the LHC upgrades ahead, and beyond. In the meantime, I present a justification a posteriori of the Naturalness criterion by suggesting that uncompromising application of the principle to Quantum Electrodynamics leads toward the Standard Model and Higgs boson without additional experimental input. Potential lessons for today and future theory building are commented upon.     

The epistemology of climate models and some of its implications for climate science and the philosophy of science

I bring out the limitations of four important views of what the target of useful climate model assessment is. Three of these views are drawn from philosophy. They include the views of Elisabeth Lloyd and Wendy Parker, and an application of Bayesian confirmation theory. The fourth view I criticise is based on the actual practice of climate model assessment. In bringing out the limitations of these four views, I argue that an approach to climate model assessment that neither demands too much of such assessment nor threatens to be unreliable will, in typical cases, have to aim at something other than the confirmation of claims about how the climate system actually is. This means, I suggest, that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC׳s) focus on establishing confidence in climate model explanations and predictions is misguided. So too, it means that standard epistemologies of science with pretensions to generality, e.g., Bayesian epistemologies, fail to illuminate the assessment of climate models. I go on to outline a view that neither demands too much nor threatens to be unreliable, a view according to which useful climate model assessment typically aims to show that certain climatic scenarios are real possibilities and, when the scenarios are determined to be real possibilities, partially to determine how remote they are.     

Preliminary data and econometric forecasting: an application with the Bank of Italy Quarterly Model

This paper discusses the use of preliminary data in econometric forecasting. The standard practice is to ignore the distinction between preliminary and final data, the forecasts that do so here being termed naïve forecasts. It is shown that in dynamic models a multistep‐ahead naïve forecast can achieve a lower mean square error than a single‐step‐ahead one, as it is less affected by the measurement noise embedded in the preliminary observations. The minimum mean square error forecasts are obtained by optimally combining the information provided by the model and the new information contained in the preliminary data, which can be done within the state space framework as suggested in numerous papers. Here two simple, in general suboptimal, methods of combining the two sources of information are considered: modifying the forecast initial conditions by means of standard regressions and using intercept corrections. The issues are explored using Italian national accounts data and the Bank of Italy Quarterly Econometric Model. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasts and expectations: Some evidence for the U.K.

Forecasts from econometric models have been given a lot of publicity in the U.K. This paper examines the performance of five major models in forecasting inflation and the rate of growth. Two types of forecast are considered: the annual pre-budget ones and a quarterly series. It is suggested that public forecasts provide a cheap method of implementing economically rational expectations.     

Glucose does not influence the insulin-like growth factor (IGF) binding to carrier proteins (IGFBPs): Analysis of rat and human serum by western ligand blotting

The insulin-like growth factors (IGFs) circulate bound to specific proteins (termed IGFBP-1 through IGFBP-6) that modulate IGF bioactivity in tissues. The aim of this study was to analyse the effects of glucose on IGF binding to IGFBPs in rat and human serum by means of western ligand blotting. Serum samples were incubated with increasing concentrations of glucose (0 to 50 mmol/l), and EDTA (25 mmol/l) was added to inhibit protease activity. To analyse the effect of glucose on protection of IGFBPs from protease activity, serum from pregnant women (reported to be very rich in proteolytic activity against IGFBPs) was added to rat serum previously incubated with glucose. Glucose did not affect the¹²⁵I-IGF binding to rat and human serum IGFBPs. The intensity of IGFBP-3 bands decreased considerably during the incubation. This appeared to be due to endogenous protease activity, since the decrease was blocked by addition of EDTA. The incubationi of rat serum with pregnant human serum produced a marked attenuation of IGFBP-3 and disappearance of IGFBP-4 bands. In conclusion, our study shows that glucose does not influence the IGF binding to IGFBP-3 either in rat or in human serum, confirms the presence of endogenous proteolytic activity in normal non-pregnant serum, and demonstrates that glucose has no protective action against protease activity.     

Fluid and protein clearance in the rat endometrium. Part II: Ultrastructural evidence for the presence of alternative,non-lymphatic clearance mechanisms in the rat endometrium

Summary In the rat endometrium, resident macrophages and exudate phagocytes ensure proteolysis by means of phagocytosis, macro-and micropinocytosis. Using exogenous tracer particles no ultrastructural evidence could be obtained for the occurrence of endometrial prelymphatics. It is suggested that the free tissue fluid may be drained via the fenestrated (probably venous) blood capillaries.Supported by a grant from the Nationaal Fonds voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek-Fonds voor Geneeskundig Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (Belgium).