气候变化对漠河地区森林和湿地生态系统的影响

大兴安岭漠河地区位于我国大片连续多年冻土区，近30年来，漠河地区气温增加显著，特别是冬季增温幅度较大，虽然近30年降水没有明显的变化趋势，但近10年来，出现极大和极少降水的幅度增加。随着气候变化，漠河地区缓坡的湿地出现了退化，灌丛和白桦入侵显著，而在一些低洼地区，由于多年冻土退化，出现了树木倾倒的现象，森林和湿地生态系统这种对气候变化的响应必将对生态环境带来巨大影响。     

南极地区温度,海冰和臭氧的变化特征

利用１９５７－１９９３年南极及邻近地区温度资料，１９７３￣１９９２年海冰北界资料和１９５７￣１９９２年南极地区大气臭氧总量资料，对南极地区气候变化的区域性，气候变化趋势的时空多样性等特征进行了诊断研究。研究结果：南极地区的气候变化存在明显的区域性，其气候条件十分复杂，近３５年来的大气温度，臭氧和近２０年以来南极海不的变化在时间，空间上都是多样的，近年来南极温度与全球平均温度的变化并不致，这种变化和     

1991—2020年南宁市气候变化特征分析

为提高全球气候变化大背景下南宁市社会经济发展的气候应对能力，了解近30年来南宁市气候变化特征，根据1991—2020年南宁市平均气温、降水量、日照时数数据，本文运用线性回归法、滑动平均法及累积距平法对南宁市近30年的气候变化进行研究分析。结果表明：近30年来南宁市平均气温以0.007 1℃/a的幅度下降，除春季外，其余3季平均气温均为下降趋势；降水量也以0.887 mm/a的幅度下降，除夏季外，其余3季平均降水量均为上升趋势；日照时数以6.300 1 h/a的幅度上升，除秋季外，其余3季的平均日照时数均呈上升趋势。基于中长时间序列气象监测数据分析获得的南宁市气候变化特征，可有效助力南宁市提升农业生产的气候变化应对能力。     

全球气候变化背景下的区域气候变化—以重庆市近代以来气候变化为例

区域性的气候变化是在全球气候变化的背景下产生的，但由于区域内本身的自然影响因素的特殊性，使得即使在同一全球气候变化趋势下，各区域的气候变化也不尽相同，各具特点，本文初步研究了重庆市近几十年的基本气候变化规律，发现在20世纪80年代重庆市的气候变化特点是持续的低温，与当时全球气温的稳步上升形成了鲜明的对比。     

山西岚县气候变化特征分析及其对生态环境的影响

根据1981年~2006年岚县气温和降水资料,运用SPSS 10.0对近26年岚县气候变化特征进行了分析.以揭示该地的气候变化对生态环境的影响.分析表明:近26年岚县年平均气温呈上升趋势,增温率为0.52℃/10年,其中以冬季气温增幅最大.根据近26年冷暖波动情况,可将岚县划分成1个冷期和1个暖期.年降水量变化特征不明显,1986年以后呈下降趋势,降水变化可分为2个多雨期和2个少雨期.岚县气候变化有向暖干化发展的趋势.该气候变化特征不利于生态环境的良性发展.     

进入21世纪的气候变化科学--气候变化的事实、影响与对策

近百年来，地球气候正经历一次以全球变暖为主要特征的显著变化，我国的气候变化趋势与全球气候变化的总趋势基本一致。近50年的气候变暖主要是人类使用化石燃料排放的大量二氧化碳等温室气体的增温效应造成的。现有的预测表明，未来50-100年全球和我国的气候将继续向变暖的方向发展。国际上，目前《联合国气候变化框架公约》和《京都议定书》正在就如何减缓这种气候变暖的趋势和控制温室气体排放进行谈判。本文依据IPCC第三次评估报告与国内外最新的研究成果，说明气候变化的事实与未来的可能变化，阐述冰冻圈对气候变化的响应，进而说明气候变化对生态系统和社会经济的影响，分析气候变化给我国带来的挑战和机遇并提出对策建议。     

95年来青岛气候变化的分析

根据１８９８－１９９２年青岛年平均温度和降水资料，分析了青岛９５年来的气候变化，指出年平均气温有明显变暖趋势，而降水量变化不显著。分析了年平均温度和降水的气候阶段，还采用信噪比方法检验了９５年来青岛气候突变。利用谱分析方法分析了气温和降水的主要周期。这些结果与北半球和我国近百年的气候变化趋势基本一致。     

气候变化与农业生产关系的分析

以长治市3个代表站1961—2000年气象要素资料为基础,分析了长治市近40年的气候变化特征,探讨了气候变化对农业生产的影响。     

西藏地区降水特征及长期气候变化

根据近４０年水文气象资料和每日历史天气圈，分析了西藏地区降水及其时空分布的基本特点，描述和讨论了藏南降水的天气尺度系统和干旱成因。作者还根据近百年历史水旱资料，探索了藏南气候变化规律，并对ＥＬ＇Ｎｉｎｏ事件与藏南气候异常的关系作了一些解释。     

罗布泊盐湖近2 000 a气候变化的高分辨率遥感研究

根据盐湖演化理论,结合实地调查数据,探讨了罗布泊盐湖记录过去气候变化的理论模型.通过对环状影像的成因进行解译和分析,试图建立影像信息与盐湖近2 000 a来气候变化的联系.应用遥感方法进行过去2 000 a气候变化的研究,建立了罗布泊盐湖近2 000 a高分辨率气候变化曲线.与已知成果进行对比表明,获得的初步结果具有可比性、连续性,特殊气候事件分辨率可达年,一般情况下气候变化的分辨率达10～20 a.     

青藏高原湖泊沉积记录与环境变化研究

 过去全球变化研究是人类认识气候与环境变化事实与规律,客观评价现代环境在气候与环境发展历史中位置的重要手段,能够为未来气候与环境变化的预测提供科学的检验工具。介绍了湖泊沉积物环境代用指标与气候要素关系定量化的研究,简要回顾利用湖泊沉积物重建高原最近2万年环境变化历史研究成果,阐述高原湖泊沉积对气候变化的敏感响应。     

气候环境变化的河流响应

通过综述前人及笔者的已有研究工作,指出气候环境变化可能引发各种河流地貌过程,如河流的侵蚀与加积、河口的溯源侵蚀与溯源堆积等;流域气候环境变化在河口沉积物的矿物和元素组成上也得以反映,如SX97孔中的粘土矿物和石英的含量变化教育与该孔孢粉资料所揭示的气候环境演化规律相吻合,也与早期对华南海岸沙丘和海滩岩的研究所揭示的区域气候环境演化一致,但由于局部因素的干扰,气候环境变化的河流响应体系可能变得较为复杂,在研究工作中应对此予以足够注意。     

Holocene palynological records and their responses to the controversies of climate system in the Shiyang River drainage basin

The Shiyang River drainage basin is located in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon region. Previous studies reached different conclusions about Holocene climatic changes in the basin. Some studies suggested the Holocene climatic changes were mainly controlled by the Asian monsoon and that the climate was relatively humid during the early Holocene (11.6-7.1 cal ka BP). Other studies found the mid-Holocene Climatic Optimum (7.0-5.0 cal ka BP), and this climate condition was similar to the Holocene westerly wind pattern in arid Central Asia. The modern climate is affected by the Asian monsoon and westerly wind in the drainage basin, and the Holocene climatic records showed two different Holocene climatic patterns-a westerly wind pattern and monsoonal pattern. However, it remains unclear what caused the two different Holocene climatic patterns to co-exist in the region. The palynological records are the main evidence for the Holocene climatic changes in the basin. This paper focuses on palynological records for different parts of the drainage basin. Among them, QTH02, QTL-03 and Sanjiaocheng records are located in the terminal lake, and the Hongshuihe record is located in the middle reaches of the basin. In the terminal lake, the palynological records of QTH02 and QTL-03 are similar, but the Sanjiaocheng record differs. The difference is mainly affected by the variable pollen assemblages in the different locations of the lake basin. From comparison and synthesis of the four palynological records, we concluded that the millennial-scale Holocene climatic changes were affected by the combined effects of the Asian monsoon and westerly wind in the drainage basin, which show the complicated Holocene climatic pattern in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon.     

Abrupt Holocene changes of the Asian monsoon at millennial- and centennial-scales: Evidence from lake sediment document in Minqin Basin, NW China

Considerable research is now focusing on abrupt Holocene changes at millennial- and centennial-scales all over the world. This study shows that the changes in the Holocene summer monsoon can be divided into two main periods, based on climatic proxy records of lake sediments from the Sanjiaocheng section located at the NW boundary of the summer monsoon, Gansu Province. The early and middle Holocene was humid with stronger summer monsoon, while the late Holocene is dry with weak summer monsoon. Detailed results also show a series of millennial- and centennial-scale changes in the intensity of the summer monsoon, with a periodicity of {dy1600} years during the whole Holocene, and with a periodicity of 800 years during the early Holocene. Ten dry events during the Holocene are associated with the weakening of the summer monsoon. These rapid climatic changes may be representative of a global climatic change pattern during the Holocene.     

Retrospect and prospect: advances and future strategies in climate research

A brief review of the progress in climate research and a prospect on its further development in the 21st century is presented. Some key findings including the concept of climate system, the discovery of climatic multi-equilibrium and abrupt climate changes, and the recognition of human activities as an important force of climate change made breakthroughs in climatology possible during last few decades. The adaptation to climatic and global change emerged as a new aspect of climatic research during the 1990s. Climate research will break through in the observation of the global system, in the analysis of mass data, in the deepening of research on the mechanism of climatic change, and in the improvement of models. In the applied fields of climate research, there will be substantial progress in the research on adaptation to global change and sustainable development, on orderly human activities, and climate modification.     

祁连山北麓出山径流对气候变化的响应

祁连山是甘肃省河西走廊的地表径流发源地,每年平均从其北麓向南部的河西绿洲输送68．86％10^8m^3的径流量,因此,祁连山区北麓出山径流的变化对河地区的社会和经济发展有着举足轻重的作用,根据祁我与河西走廊平原区有关水文气象台站最新的降水、气温和径流观测资料,分析了该区域近50年来气候变化的特征及与全球气候变暖的关系、出山径流对抉变化的响应以及其未来的变化趋势,结果表明,祁连山区与河西走廊平原区近几十年来气温变化总的呈上升趋势,与全球增温存在着某种程度的一致性,但山区气温的变化幅度一般大于走廊平原区,其中又以祁连山中段地区温度升幅为最大,全球增温对河西内陆干旱区气候与出山径流的影响有着明显的地域性差异。受此影响,祁连山北麓东部地区出山径流呈明显的下降趋势;中部地区出山径流的增加趋势不是十分明显;西部出山径流在降水量与气温同时上升的情况下,呈明显的上升趋势。     

Hierarchical structures in climate and atmospheric turbulence

The climatic time series encompass many time scales, forming multi-scale climatic variations and hierarchies. The periods and magnitudes of cooling or warming, especially for extreme climatic events, vary with the time scales. On the other hand, high-frequency atmospheric turbulent motions, which are certainly related to the climatic changes, are also typical multi-scale phenomena. In this paper, certain properties of the fluctuations are examined that are invariant with the change of the time scales. Specifically, the existence of a statistical similarity law is demonstrated in climatic time series and in atmospheric turbulent motions. This is the hierarchical similarity law. Further analyses show that the hierarchical similarity law is a general property of multi-scale fluctuation systems. Therefore, the study on the hierarchical similarity law is important for understanding the inherent universal physical mechanism of complex systems in the atmospheric motions.     

Climate change, social unrest and dynastic transition in ancient China

The alternation of war and peace accompanied bydynastic transitions was shown to be the rhythm of socialdevelopments throughout Chinese history. Western schol-ars attempted to use the “Dynastic Cycle” theory to expli-cate why the socio-economic development in China wasembedded in such a historical rhythm[1—4]. Dynastic cycletheory states that any dynastic rise-and-fall, social ac-cord-and-discord, and economic upturn-and-downturn areclosely related to the trend of societal development andt…     

树木年轮稳定碳同位素与气候变化的关系研究进展

树木的生长与立地环境密切相关并受气候变化的影响,树木年轮稳定碳同位素作为反映气 候与环境变化的一个重要参数,已被广大生态学家所重视并应用.综述了树木年轮稳定碳同位素的 测定方法,δ13C与CO2浓度、降水、温度、光照时间等气候因子的关系及其在古气候重建研究中的 应用,并针对该研究今后的发展方向提出了几点建议,为我国树木年轮稳定碳同位素研究的进一步 发展可提供理论参考.     

青海湖萎缩干涸原因、发展趋势及对生态环境的影响

对青海湖萎缩干涸原因,发展趋势及其对生态环境的影响进行研究,结果表明：（a)该湖泊的补给水量常常入不敷出,原因是受气气候变化和人类经济活动等影响,其中湖区所受的人类活动影响较小;（b)湖水位的变化与人类耗用水量之间没有明显的联系,其水位变化基本上反映了该流域内的自然气候条件的变化,针对青海湖流域的这一特点,采用线性扰动模型（LPM）,能较好的地模拟青湖的水位变化过程及预测未来的水位变化趋势。