A continuous 3000—year precipitation record of ENSO variability during LGM from a stalagmite in Nanjing

A glacial stalagmite chronology from Nanjing has been established by the TIMS-U series dating and annual band counting methods. The annually layering sequence spanning the 3000-year period from 18179 to 14900 calendar years before the present (aBP) was analyzed for evidence of East Asian summer monsoon precipitation variability during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Power spectral analysis of the sequence shows a distinct interannual (2—7 years) band of enhanced variability suggestive of El Ni駉-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections into East China during the LGM when climatic boundary conditions were different from those of today. The lower frequency bands (4—7 years) variability becomes weaker from 18179 to 14900 aBP, sup-porting the precession forcing model. The reappearance of the ENSO band in the coldest climatic boundary conditions during the Heinrich Event 1, however, suggests the stimula-tion of the enhanced East Asia winter monsoon to the El Ni駉 events.     

西北太平洋生成热带气旋的年代际变化

为了分析热带气旋年代际变化的特征和造成这种变化的原因,利用西北太平洋编号台风资料对1949～2003年55 a的西北太平洋热带气旋特点进行分析,发现西北太平洋生成的热带气旋不管是频数还是生成位置都存在明显的年代际变化,根据热带气旋频数的年代际变化,把研究的55 a分成低频时期(LFP)和高频时期(HFP)分别加以考察.结果发现:热带气旋生成的高低频时期海气条件存在明显的差异,HFP的海温、对流、涡散度和切变条件都有利于西北太平洋热带气旋的生成,而LFP则明显存在物理量场的相反异常.这表示HFP的海气环境相比LFP更有利于热带气旋生成,说明了变化的海气条件是引起热带气旋频数和生成位置年代际变化的主要原因.     

Spatial-temporal variability of thermohaline intrusions in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean

Using repeated hydrographic measurements at 137°E,spatial-temporal variability of thermohaline intrusions in the northwestern tropical Pacific are investigated.Intrusions can be found in the main thermocline throughout the section,with their strength decreasing rapidly poleward.The strongest intrusions exist at the North Equatorial Countercurrent(NECC) where North/South Pacific thermocline water converges.These intrusions also exhibit temporal variations in strength which are closely associated with the meridional displacement of the NECC.Intrusion strength peaks in boreal winter when the NECC reaches its northernmost position of the year.At interannual time scale,intrusions tend to be weak(strong) during El Ni o(La Ni a) episodes.Variations in intrusion strength also lead to prominent fluctuation of lateral diffusivity K L and cross-front temperature flux F Θ.F Θ exhibits significant year-to-year changes which are well correlated with ENSO index,suggesting a possible role of intrusions in the low-latitude Pacific climate variability.     

西北太平洋热带气旋气候特征及其变化研究的若干进展

为了对我国气象工作者全面了解和参与热带气旋的研究有所帮助,在大量阅读和调研的基础上,介绍了近20年西北太平洋热带气旋活动在季节、年际和年代际尺度上研究的若干主要成果.重点阐述了EN-SO与热带气旋的关系,温室效应热带气旋的数值模拟和观测研究等的最新动态.     

CO2浓度增加对西北太平洋热带风暴气候特征的影响

为了研究CO2浓度变化对西北太平洋热带风暴气候特征的影响,采用全球大气海洋耦合环流模式GFDL CM2.1 3个CO2排放情景下的数值试验资料,提出了适合模式的识别模式热带风暴的标准,并采用NCEP再分析资料和年鉴资料检验了标准的合理性,分析了模式热带风暴在CO2浓度增加后气候特征的变化.结果表明,所提标准是合理的,所识别的模式热带风暴在暖心平均结构等方面与NCEP热带风暴平均结构相似性高;CO2浓度增加后,模式热带风暴频数减少,强度增强,强热带风暴增多,主要源地和活动地区西移,季节分布和持续时间的分布形势没有明显变化.     

热带太平洋海平面年际和年代际变化研究进展

回顾热带太平洋对海平面长期趋势有重要影响的海平面年际和年代际变化的相关研究,总结包括近期提出的中部型厄尔尼诺在内的2种类型厄尔尼诺对热带太平洋海平面年际变化的影响,揭示了热带太平洋海平面年代际变化与信风年代际变化之间的紧密联系。指出赤道信风的增强对近期热带太平洋海平面变化格局的形成有决定性作用,厄尔尼诺强度的减弱对这种格局有贡献,而拉尼娜的影响有待深入研究。研究资料的局限性导致年代际变化的定量研究成果较少,在研究海平面年际和年代际变化时应用的热通量评估模型有待改进。     

气候变化对鄱阳湖流域径流的影响

为研究未来气候变化对鄱阳湖流域径流的影响,构建了0.1°分辨率VIC水文模型,采用均匀设计法率定参数。应用CMIP5多模式气象数据结果驱动VIC模型,对RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下的鄱阳湖流域径流变化进行评估。结果表明,在RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下未来期(2026—2040年)较基准期(2006—2020年)径流呈增加趋势,在RCP8.5情景下径流呈减少趋势。各种模式都在汛期径流有增加趋势,枯季径流有减小趋势,发生水文极端事件的态势更加明显。     

Abrupt climate change of EastAsian Monsoon at 130 kaBP inferred from a high resolu-tion stalagmite δ18O record

^230Th ages and oxygen isotope data of a stalagmite from Shanbao Cave in Hubei Province characterize the East Asian Monsoon precipitation from 133 to 127ka. The decadal-scale high-resolution δ^18O record reveals a detailed transitional process from the Penultimate Glaciation to the Last Interglaciation. As established with ^230Th dates, the age of the Termination Ⅱ is determined to be 129.5±1.0 kaBP, which supports the Northern Hemisphere insolation as the triggers for the ice-age cycles. In our δ^18O record, the glacial/interglacial fluctuation reaches about 4‰, almost the same level as in other Asian Monsoon cave stalagmite δ^18O records. The transition of the glacial/interglacial period in our record can be recognized as four stepwise stages, among which, a rapid rise of monsoon precipitation follows the stage of “Termination Ⅱ pause”. The rapid rise is synchronous with the abrupt change of global methane concentration, which reflects that an increase in both Asian Monsoon precipitation and tropical wetland plays an important role in the global climate changes.     

气候变化对RC结构碳化侵蚀可靠度的影响

气候变化引起的全球大气中CO2浓度的升高,加速了钢筋混凝土(RC)结构的劣化.针对《混凝土耐久性设计规范》中规定的碳化环境(Ⅰ类环境),评估了未来气候变化对中国RC结构在正常使用极限状态下时变可靠度的影响.研究显示:未来气候变化使中国RC结构的平均碳化深度增大20％～40％,降低了RC结构的碳化侵蚀可靠度.到2100年,混凝土结构耐久性设计规范中Ⅰ类环境下Ⅰ-A、Ⅰ-B环境作用等级的耐久性规定不能够适应气候变化对中国钢筋混凝土结构的耐久性影响.     

Possible solar forcing of climate variability in the past 4000 years inferred from a proxy record at the southern margin of Tarim Basin

A ca. 4000a decadal-resolution climate proxy record of the mean grain-size from a lake (or mash) sediment at the southern margin of the Tarim Basin, correlates visually with the atmospheric 14C record from tree ring (residual △^14C, solar proxy) and the GISP2 ice core δ^18O record (temperature proxy). In general, △^14C maxima (solar minima) are coincident with cold (wet) periods in the study area and cold periods in the Greenland ice core. Power spectrum analysis revealed statistically significant periodicities of 196a, 121a, 97a, 62a, 45a and 33--30a, which are similar to those principal solar-oscillation periods as inferred from the atmospheric radiocarbon and other proxy records. Possible solar forcing is addressed to be the main driving forcing of climate change in the southern margin of Tarim Basin.     

Prediction of a global climate change on Jupiter

Jupiter's atmosphere, as observed in the 1979 Voyager space craft images, is characterized by 12 zonal jet streams and about 80 vortices, the largest of which are the Great Red Spot and three White Ovals that had formed in the 1930s. The Great Red Spot has been observed continuously since 1665 and, given the dynamical similarities between the Great Red Spot and the White Ovals, the disappearance of two White Ovals in 1997-2000 was unexpected. Their longevity and sudden demise has been explained however, by the trapping of anticyclonic vortices in the troughs of Rossby waves, forcing them to merge. Here I propose that the disappearance of the White Ovals was not an isolated event, but part of a recurring climate cycle which will cause most of Jupiter's vortices to disappear within the next decade. In my numerical simulations, the loss of the vortices results in a global temperature change of about 10 K, which destabilizes the atmosphere and thereby leads to the formation of new vortices. After formation, the large vortices are eroded by turbulence over a time of approximately 60 years--consistent with observations of the White Ovals-until they disappear and the cycle begins again.     

Influence of the carbon cycle on the attribution of responsibility for climate change

The carbon cycle is one of the fundamental climate change issues.Its long-term evolution largely affects the amplitude and trend of human-induced climate change,as well as the formulation and implementation of emission reduction policy and technology for stabilizing the atmospheric CO2concentration.Two earth system models incorporating the global carbon cycle,the Community Earth System Model and the Beijing Normal University-Earth System Model,were used to investigate the effect of the carbon cycle on the attribution of the historical responsibility for climate change.The simulations show that when compared with the criterion based on cumulative emissions,the developed(developing)countries’responsibility is reduced(increased)by 6%–10%using atmospheric CO2concentration as the criterion.This discrepancy is attributed to the fact that the developed world contributed approximately61%–68%(61%–64%)to the change in global oceanic(terrestrial)carbon sequestration for the period from 1850 to2005,whereas the developing world contributed approximately 32%–49%(36%–39%).Under a developed world emissions scenario,the relatively larger uptake of global carbon sinks reduced the developed countries’responsibility for carbon emissions but increased their responsibility for global ocean acidification(68%).In addition,the large emissions from the developed world reduced the efficiency of the global carbon sinks,which may affect the long-term carbon sequestration and exacerbate global warming in the future.Therefore,it is necessary to further consider the interaction between carbon emissions and the carbon cycle when formulating emission reduction policy.     

Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles

The assessment of uncertainties in global warming projections is often based on expert judgement, because a number of key variables in climate change are poorly quantified. In particular, the sensitivity of climate to changing greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere and the radiative forcing effects by aerosols are not well constrained, leading to large uncertainties in global warming simulations. Here we present a Monte Carlo approach to produce probabilistic climate projections, using a climate model of reduced complexity. The uncertainties in the input parameters and in the model itself are taken into account, and past observations of oceanic and atmospheric warming are used to constrain the range of realistic model responses. We obtain a probability density function for the present-day total radiative forcing, giving 1.4 to 2.4 W m-2 for the 5-95 per cent confidence range, narrowing the global-mean indirect aerosol effect to the range of 0 to -1.2 W m-2. Ensemble simulations for two illustrative emission scenarios suggest a 40 per cent probability that global-mean surface temperature increase will exceed the range predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but only a 5 per cent probability that warming will fall below that range.     

Orbit-related long-term climate cycles revealed in a 12-Myr continental record from Lake Baikal

Quaternary records of climate change from terrestrial sources, such as lake sediments and aeolian sediments, in general agree well with marine records. But continuous records that cover more than the past one million years were essentially unavailable until recently, when the high-sedimentation-rate site of Lake Baikal was exploited. Because of its location in the middle latitudes, Lake Baikal is highly sensitive to insolation changes and the entire lake remained uncovered by ice sheets throughout the Pleistocene epoch, making it a valuable archive for past climate. Here we examine long sediment cores from Lake Baikal that cover the past 12 million years. Our record reveals a gradual cooling of the Asian continental interior, with some fluctuations. Spectral analyses reveal periods of about 400 kyr, 600 kyr and 1,000 kyr, which may correspond to Milankovitch periods (reflecting orbital cycles). Our results indicate that changes in insolation were closely related to long-term environmental variations in the deep continental interior, over the past 12 million years.     

气候变化对雄安新区城市建设的影响及应对策略

 利用全国近50年气象资料（雄安1974年以来的完整资料）,研究分析了全国尤其是雄安近几十年来的气候变化和气候生态特征。雄安属暖温带半湿润季风气候,气候背景与北京、天津类似。近几十年来,气温、降水等气象要素的变化趋势明显但幅度较弱,年平均气温变化趋势为平均每10年升高0.2℃,高温日数平均每10年增加0.8 d,暴雨日数呈减少趋势,上述要素的变化幅度虽低于全国及周边城市,但均显示出了气候变化对雄安的影响,且极端天气事件也呈增加的趋势,如强降雨重现期缩短,极端强降雨量明显增大等,这与IPCC（联合国气候变化政府间专门委员会）的报告和中国大部地区趋势一致。结合灾害历史资料分析和气候模式预测,指出在全球气候变暖背景下,雄安新区在发展中将面临气候变化背景下增加的气象灾害和气候风险,进而给出了相关城市建设的建议。     

泥炭记录的近2 200年吉林省敦化盆地的气候变化

根据典型泥炭剖面孢粉图示、粒度分布(纤维含量)、pH、沉积速率、吸湿水、C/ N、有机质含量等指标的综合分析,结合地层特征,研究了2 200 a B.P.以来的晚全新世敦化盆地植被和气候的变化.结果表明:敦化大桥泥炭地是从山地森林演替为草甸,继而经沼泽化形成;周围植被经历了以松林(Pinus)为主的温带山地针叶林,桦(Betula)、榛(Corylus)、胡桃(Juglans)等阔叶树和松林共生的针阔混交林,以榛、鹅耳枥(Carpinus)、松为主的针阔混交林和松、桦为主的针阔混交林之后,渐渐进入现代景观;相应地,该区气候经历了四个时期,即冷干((2 045±70)B.P.)～(2 195±70)a B.P.)、暖湿((1 745±70)a B.P.～(2 045±70)a B.P.)、温湿((705±70)a B.P.～1 745±70)a B.P.)和冷湿(公元1245-1950年)时期.     

Effects of climate change on biodiversity

1 Rise of studies on climate change＇s effects on biodiversity
Until the 1980s, climate change and biodiversity were studied as two independent disciplines for more than a century. In 1992, the Ecological Society of America＇s annual report named climate change, biodiversity, and the sustainable ecological system as the three major global environmental issues of the twenty-first century [1].     

近50ａ来南疆气候变化对可利用降水量的影响

选择1951~2006年逐月降水和温度资料,计算出南疆年平均蒸发量及可利用降水量.在详细分析了50 a来南疆地区降水、气温、蒸发及可利用降水量变化特征的基础上,采用逐步回归周期分析法对降水、气温和可利用降水量进行了模拟,并对未来5 a上述要素进行了预测.结果表明,20世纪70年代以后南疆地区的温度、降水和蒸发变化基本呈上升态势,可利用降水量却呈现出偏多和偏少交替的波状变化特征.这说明气候变暖,可利用降水量不一定增多,未来5 a南疆地区可利用降水量将可能减少.     

北太平洋海温对阜新气候变暖的影响

为了揭示阜新气候变暖的影响因素及变化规律,利用近50年北太平洋海温资料、历年阜新地区气温资料,在太阳黑子谷值年活动周期内,采用数理统计分析方法,对阜新年、季、月气温变化进行了深入的分析和研究,找出了阜新气候变暖与海温之间的一些重要规律.结果证明了阜新气候变暖与海温有着密切的关系及海温对气温影响的长期效应.通过海温与气温的研究,对气候变暖、冷暖冬、高温、低温冷害、干旱、洪涝等方面的气候预测有着重要的帮助作用.