Model checking for general linear error-in-covariables model with validation data

In this paper, model checking problem is considered for general linear model when covariables are measured with error and an independent validation data set is available. Without assuming any error model structure between the true variable and the surrogate variable, the author first apply nonparametric method to model the relationship between the true variable and the surrogate variable with the help of the validation sample. Then the author construct a score-type test statistic through model adjustment. The large sample behaviors of the score-type test statistic are investigated. It is shown that the test is consistent and can detect the alternative hypothesis close to the null hypothesis at the rate n ^−r with 0 ≤ r ≤ 1/2. Simulation results indicate that the proposed method works well.     

Approximate conditional likelihood for generalized linear models with general missing data mechanism

The generalized linear model is an indispensable tool for analyzing non-Gaussian response data, with both canonical and non-canonical link functions comprehensively used. When missing values are present, many existing methods in the literature heavily depend on an unverifiable assumption of the missing data mechanism, and they fail when the assumption is violated. This paper proposes a missing data mechanism that is as generally applicable as possible, which includes both ignorable and nonignorable missing data cases, as well as both scenarios of missing values in response and covariate. Under this general missing data mechanism, the authors adopt an approximate conditional likelihood method to estimate unknown parameters. The authors rigorously establish the regularity conditions under which the unknown parameters are identifiable under the approximate conditional likelihood approach. For parameters that are identifiable, the authors prove the asymptotic normality of the estimators obtained by maximizing the approximate conditional likelihood. Some simulation studies are conducted to evaluate finite sample performance of the proposed estimators as well as estimators from some existing methods. Finally, the authors present a biomarker analysis in prostate cancer study to illustrate the proposed method.     

Sieve least squares estimator for partial linear models with current status data

Current status data often arise in survival analysis and reliability studies, when a continuous response is reduced to an indicator of whether the response is greater or less than an observed random threshold value. This article considers a partial linear model with current status data. A sieve least squares estimator is proposed to estimate both the regression parameters and the nonparametric function. This paper shows, under some mild condition, that the estimators are strong consistent. Moreover, the parameter estimators are normally distributed, while the nonparametric component achieves the optimal convergence rate. Simulation studies are carried out to investigate the performance of the proposed estimates. For illustration purposes, the method is applied to a real dataset from a study of the calcification of the hydrogel intraocular lenses, a complication of cataract treatment.     

Empirical likelihood confidence region for parameters in linear errors-in-variables models with missing data

The multivariate linear errors-in-variables model when the regressors are missing at random in the sense of Rubin (1976) is considered in this paper. A constrained empirical likelihood confidence region for a parameter β ₀ in this model is proposed, which is constructed by combining the score function corresponding to the weighted squared orthogonal distance based on inverse probability with a constrained region of β ₀. It is shown that the empirical log-likelihood ratio at the true parameter converges to the standard chi-square distribution. Simulations show that the coverage rate of the proposed confidence region is closer to the nominal level and the length of confidence interval is narrower than those of the normal approximation of inverse probability weighted adjusted least square estimator in most cases. A real example is studied and the result supports the theory and simulation’s conclusion.     

EMMD-Prony approach for dynamic validation of simulation models

Model validation and updating is critical to model credibility growth. In order to assess model credibility quantitatively and locate model error precisely, a new dynamic validation method based on extremum field mean mode decomposition(EMMD) and the Prony method is proposed in this paper. Firstly, complex dynamic responses from models and real systems are processed into stationary components by EMMD. These components always have definite physical meanings which can be the evidence about rough model error location. Secondly, the Prony method is applied to identify the features of each EMMD component. Amplitude similarity, frequency similarity, damping similarity and phase similarity are defined to describe the similarity of dynamic responses.Then quantitative validation metrics are obtained based on the improved entropy weight and energy proportion. Precise model error location is realized based on the physical meanings of these features. The application of this method in aircraft controller design provides evidence about its feasibility and usability.     

含不确定参数线性优化的新鲁棒优化模型

针对椭球不确定数据鲁棒线性优化模型的保守性,提出了一种新的鲁棒线性优化模型。通过引入新的距离公式,把椭球不确定数据映射到单位球中,以此来改进鲁棒线性优化模型。新模型克服了原模型对数据扰动较大时的保守性,从而在解的鲁棒性和最优性之间得到一个比较好的平衡。通过对几个标准实际问题的测试,结果表明新模型在保证解的鲁棒性的同时具有良好的最优性。     

TOPSIS价值函数模型

综合研究了TOPSIS函数的结构和性质，在构建单向规范化向量空间的基础上，定义并归纳了6种TOPSIS函数，证明了这6种函数都是价值函数，最后经过分析比较，推荐其中两种函数作为正统的TOPSIS价值函数模型。     

结合GLM与因子效应原则的贝叶斯变量选择方法

因子效应原则(效应稀疏原则、效应排序原则和效应遗传原则)经常用于评判因子设计理论与数据分析策略的合理性. 针对非正态响应的部分因子试验, 当筛选试验含有复杂的别名效应时, 提出了一种结合广义线性模型(generalized linear models, GLM)与因子效应原则的多阶段贝叶斯变量选择方法. 首先, 在广义线性模型的线性预测器中对每个变量设置一个二元变量指示器; 其次, 将因子效应原则以变量指示器的先验信息分成三个不同的阶段分别加以考虑; 然后, 利用变量指示器的后验概率识别显著性的因子效应. 最后, 仿真试验结果表明: 所提出的方法不仅能简化广义线性模型先验参数的选择, 而且能够有效地识别出非正态响应部分因子试验的显著性因子.     

Two-step estimators in partial linear models with missing response variables and error-prone covariates

A partial linear model with missing response variables and error-prone covariates is considered. The imputation approach is developed to estimate the regression coefficients and the nonparametric function. The proposed parametric estimators are shown to be asymptotically normal, and the estimators for the nonparametric part are proved to converge at an optimal rate. To construct confidence regions for the regression coefficients and the nonparametric function, respectively, the authors also propose the empirical-likelihood-based statistics and investigate the limit distributions of the empirical likelihood ratios. The simulation study is conducted to compare the finite sample behavior for the proposed estimators. An application to an AIDS dataset is illustrated.     

基于数值转换的隐私保护线性回归方法

企业合作进行数据分析时,很多时候不愿意透漏各自的私有数据.针对这种情况提出了在数据异构分布下通过线性转化和添加随机噪声两种数值转换方法来保护企业的私有数据,阐述了怎样在转换后的数据中得到原始的线性回归方程以及线性回归方程拟合优度的计算,怎样在转换后的数据中对回归方程的线性关系和回归系数进行显著性检验,最后结合算例对这两种数值转换方法进行了分析和对比,实验证明基于线性转化和添加随机噪声的两种数值转换方法可用于解决企业合作中私有数据的线性回归问题.     

时序约束下Guard-Stage-Milestone业务模型的一致性验证与异常处理

Guard-Stage-Milestone(GSM)作为一种以Artifact为中心的企业业务建模方法,获得了国内外学术界和工业界的广泛认可,已成为当前研究的热点.然而,目前GSM方法普遍局限在数据和流程结构层面,没有考虑外在的企业各种业务或规章制度中的时序约束需求.针对这一迫切需求,提出了一种时序约束下GSM业务模型的一致性验证与异常处理方法.分为两个阶段:1)将GSM业务模型转化为Petri网模型,再把外部的时序约束映射到Petri网模型中.2)提取Petri网模型中的路径并进行时序一致性验证;如果出现异常,将问题转化为线性规划模型并进行自动求解.不但能够解决GSM业务模型的时序约束验证问题,而且能指导用户进行模型持续优化和改进.最后,通过一个企业的实例验证了其有效性.     

基于数据特征的仿真动态输出验证方法

为了解决考虑不确定性时仿真系统动态输出验证问题,提出一种基于数据特征的仿真系统动态输出验证方法。首先在给出数据特征度量模型集概念的基础上,定义了形状、位置、频谱3方面的差异特征度量模型;然后分别构建仿真系统输出和参考输出的标准序列,建立仿真系统和参考系统动态输出的数据特征矩阵;再者,应用基于核密度估计的改进贝叶斯因子法实现仿真系统动态输出统计特性的一致性度量,从而完成动态输出的验证;最后,通过实例应用对所提方法进行了验证。     

线性插值基的数字预失真方法

随着射频功率放大器的发射功率不断提升,特别是Doherty功放的广泛应用,使得功放的非线性特性不断增强。为了满足高线性化的需求,数字预失真(digital pre distortion, DPD)技术要求达到更优的非线性校正效果。提出一种基于线性插值基的数字预失真方法,所提方法将线性插值基引入到数字预失真的行为建模中,达到优化的非线性校正效果。同时所提方法通过与查找表的实现方式结合,非常利于系统应用。仿真实验中采用20 MHz长期演进(long term evolution, LTE)信号进行实验,新方法较广义记忆多项式方法在临道泄露比指标上改善了近7 dBc以上。     

Empirical likelihood for partially linear models under negatively associated errors

This paper proposes to use the blockwise empirical likelihood(EL) method to construct the confidence regions for the regression vector β in a partially linear model under negatively associated errors. It is shown that the blockwise EL ratio statistic for β is asymptotically χ~2 distributed. The result is used to obtain an EL-based confidence region for β. Results of a simulation study on the finite sample performance of the proposed confidence regions are reported.     

条件线性高斯模型的Gauss Hermite filter-Kalman filter算法

针对条件线性高斯状态空间模型,提出了高斯厄密特滤波-卡尔曼滤波(Gauss Hermite filter-Kalmanfilter,GHF-KF)滤波算法。算法将模型中的条件线性状态方程代入观测方程,并融合线性状态的过程噪声和观测噪声,由GHF获得非线性状态的估计;再将非线性状态的估计均值代入线性状态方程与观测方程,由KF获得线性状态的估计;获得的非线性状态估计方差还用于修正由KF估计的线性状态,以提高精度。将GHF-KF算法应用于目标跟踪的仿真结果表明,与现有Rao-Blackwellized粒子滤波器RBPF相比,新方法在保证估计精度的同时,明显提高了实时性,计算时间仅约为RBPF的5%。     

Inference on coefficient function for varying-coefficient partially linear model

One important model in handling the multivariate data is the varying-coemcient partially linear regression model.In this paper,the generalized likelihood ratio test is developed to test whether its coefficient functions are varying or not.It is showed that the normalized proposed test follows asymptoticallyχ~2-distribution and the Wilks phenomenon under the null hypothesis,and its asymptotic power achieves the optimal rate of the convergence for the nonparametric hypotheses testing.Some simulation studies illustrate that the test works well.     

基于线性学习函数的泛证券投资组合策略

最优定常再调整策略所产生的收益随时间成指数速度增长, 寻找与最优定常再调整策略的收益具有相同指数增长率的在线序贯投资组合是近年来投资组合研究的一个 热点. 首先提出了基于线性学习函数的在线投资组合策略, 其中线性函数的系数是一个与股票相对价格和收益有关的区间的中点. 用相对熵函数定义两个投资组合向量之 间的距离, 进一步证明了基于线性函数的在线投资组合策略是泛证券投资组合. 最后, 分别在两支股票和三支股票组成的多个投资组合上进行了数值计算, 并 与Cover等人提出的泛证券投资组合策略进行了比较. 结果表明这种基于线性学习函数的在线投资组合策略能获得更多的收益, 从而为投资者提供了新的 在线序贯投资组合决策的方法和依据, 具有重要的现实指导意义.     

Generalized F-test for high dimensional regression coefficients of partially linear models

This paper proposes a test procedure for testing the regression coefficients in high dimensional partially linear models based on the F-statistic. In the partially linear model, the authors first estimate the unknown nonlinear component by some nonparametric methods and then generalize the F-statistic to test the regression coefficients under some regular conditions. During this procedure, the estimation of the nonlinear component brings much challenge to explore the properties of generalized F-test. The authors obtain some asymptotic properties of the generalized F-test in more general cases,including the asymptotic normality and the power of this test with p/n ∈(0, 1) without normality assumption. The asymptotic result is general and by adding some constraint conditions we can obtain the similar conclusions in high dimensional linear models. Through simulation studies, the authors demonstrate good finite-sample performance of the proposed test in comparison with the theoretical results. The practical utility of our method is illustrated by a real data example.     

Improved anovae of the covariance matrix in general linear mixed models

In this paper, the problem of estimating the covariance matrix in general linear mixed models is considered. A new class of estimators is proposed. It is shown that this new estimator dominates the analysis of variance estimate under two squared loss functions. Finally, some simulation results to compare the performance of the proposed estimator with that of the analysis of variance estimate are reported. The simulation results indicate that this new estimator provides a substantial improvement in risk under most situations.     

条件线性状态空间模型Rao-Blackwellized卷积滤波算法

针对条件线性高斯状态空间模型,提出一种新的状态滤波方法,称为Rao-Blackwellized卷积滤波（Rao-Blackwellized convolution filtering, RBCF）算法,算法用卷积滤波器（convolution filter, CF）估计模型中的非线性状态,用卡尔曼滤波器 （Kalman filter, KF）估计线性状态;与Rao-Blackwellized粒子滤波器（Rao-Blackwellized particle filter, RBPF）相比,算法使用了基于核函数的CF,提高了在小噪声条件下的估计精度。RBCF滤波算法应用于机动目标跟踪的仿真结果表明：在小噪声条件下,RBCF的估计精度明显高于RBPF,其对位置和速度估计的均方根误差比RBPF低一个数量级以上。而且随着噪声进一步的减小,这种优势将更加明显。