西安市经济走势整合预测的实证分析

将西安市整个经济走势、变化过程看作一个灰色系统．以西安市经济发展的历史数据为例，利用灰色理论建立经济走势模型．其目的是在深入分析西安市经济指标发展现状的基础上，把握未来的发展趋势及特点，为政府决策提供参考．事实证明模型选用是有效的．     

汉江安康站最大径流量的动态预测模型研究

用平稳时间序列的ＡＲＭＡ（ｐ，ｑ）模型分析法，分析了汉江安康站１９４３年到１９９５年共５３年最大径流量的水文资料，建立了陕南汉江安康站最大径流量的中短期动态预测数学模型。经对１９９６年和１９９７年的最大径流量进行预测，结果与实际相吻合。     

基于GM(1,1)模型对杭州市商品房房价的预测分析

以杭州市2010—2020年商品房均价的相关数据为基础构建GM(1,1)模型。GM(1,1)模型预测准确度比较高,通常用该模型对房价进行中短期预测分析,通过利用此模型对杭州市2021—2025年的房价走势进行了预测。     

地下水水质预测的一元线性回归方法研究--以乌鲁木齐河流域仓房沟地区为例

一元线性回归分析预测方法是利用一个自变量和预测变量之间的依赖关系来进行预测的方法,主要适用于中短期地下水水质变化预测.文章介绍了一元线性回归模型的建模过程和精度检验,并用C语言将其实现.利用模型预测了乌鲁木齐河流域仓房沟地下水水质的变化趋势.     

灰色模型及其在我国报纸发行量预测中的应用

本文讨论了灰色模型的机理和特点,建立了描述我国报纸发行系统发展规律的灰色动态模型,并据此对报纸发行量进行了预测。研究结果表明:灰色预测方法的精度高于传统的确定性趋势预测方法,尤其适合于对信息量不足、作用机制不确定的抽象系统进行中短期预测,从而为科学决策提供依据。     

森林公园客流量的灰色预测

在运用常规GM (1,1)模型群的基础上 ,采用新息GM(1,1)模型群分段选优进行预测的方法 ,对森林公园客流量进行中短期预测 ,所选模型均为Ⅰ级 ,其预测精度均高于 99%,这可为森林公园建设和管理等决策提供科学依据。     

灰色模型在人口预测中的应用

人口预测特别是精确度高、可操作性强的预测方法可为国家和地区经济发展提供有效服务。灰色预测法可以对既含有已知信息又含有不确定因素的系统进行预测,它预测精度高,能够保持原系统的特征,较好地反映系统的实际情况。本文用灰色模型对西安市未来人口规模进行预测,取得了较好的效果。希望能为政府控制本市户籍人口增长规模提供借鉴。     

省级经济计量模型的建立与预测分析

选取某省作案例,通过建立宏观经济计量模型来对该省的经济发展进行预测和分析评价,并根据预测分析结果,对该省的经济发展提出了一些建议·最终结果表明:经济计量模型是对省区经济发展进行量化分析的有效工具之一;建立的模型与该省的经济运行基本吻合;该模型的框架可以普遍推广应用     

区域产业结构、人力资源及人口变化对经济增长的影响

采用产业结构、人力资源与人口变化对经济发展的贡献模型,以1993-2003年西安市各产业的GDP、从业人数和人口总数为基本数据,对其经济增长进行了实证分析。结果显示:西安市的第二、第三产业人均劳动生产率和经济贡献率远高于第一产业;而第一产业的劳动力比例却占到40%,第二和第三产业劳动力的比例之和仅为60%左右。从发展趋势来看,西安市人口的负增长效应是逐年上升的,产业结构也基本上趋于合理化,有着向产业高级化发展的趋势。     

交通流的时间序列建模及预测

采用时间序列ARMA模型进行交通流量趋势预测，建模时利用现场测得的交通流非平稳时间序列进行差分变换及标准化处理，从而转化成标准正态平稳时间序列；模型参数估计采用极大似然估计法，并根据AIC准则为模型定阶；最后通过实测数据进行验证．结果表明该ARMA模型能够较好地拟合交通流时间序列并可获得较高的中短期预测精度，因而可用于动态交通信号控制．     

Markedness and its Interpretation in Language Use

Language markedness is a common phenomenon in languages, and is reflected from hearing, vision and sense, i.e. the variation in the three aspects such as phonology, morphology and semantics. This paper focuses on the interpretation of markedness in language use following the three perspectives, i.e. pragmatic interpretation, psychological interpretation and cognitive interpretation, with an aim to define the function of markedness.     

Features of Women's language

Language is a means of verbal communication. People use language to communicate with each other. In the society, no two speakers are exactly alike in the way of speaking. Some differences are due to age, gender, statue and personality. Above all, gender is one of the obvious reasons. The writer of this paper tries to describe the features of women＇s language from these perspectives： pronunciation, intonation, diction, subjects, grammar and discourse. From the discussion of the features of women＇s language, more attention should be paid to language use in social context. What＇s more, the linguistic phenomena in a speaking community can be understood more thoroughly.     

低渗透非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度研究

理论推导与室内实验相结合,建立了低渗透非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度确定方法。首先借助油藏流场与电场相似的原理,推导了非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度计算公式。其次基于稳定流实验方法,建立了非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度测试方法。结果表明:低渗透非均质砂岩油藏的启动压力梯度确定遵循两个等效原则。平面非均质油藏的启动压力梯度等于各级渗透率段的启动压力梯度关于长度的加权平均;纵向非均质油藏的启动压力梯度等于各渗透率层的启动压力梯度关于渗透率与渗流面积乘积的加权平均。研究成果可用于有效指导低渗透非均质砂岩油藏的合理井距确定,促进该类油藏的高效开发。     

On Tragic Consciousness In The Works By Ernest Hemingway

As an American modern novelist who were famous in the literary world, Hemingway was not a person who always followed the trend but a sharp observer. At the same time, he was a tragedy maestro, he paid great attention on existence, fate and end-result. The dramatis personae's tragedy of his works was an extreme limit by all means tragedy on the meaning of fearless challenge that failed. The beauty of tragedy was not produced on the destruction of life, but now this kind of value was in the impact activity. They performed for the reader about the tragedy on challenging for the limit and the death.     

Achieving Unusual States of Matter Under High Pressure

正The periodicity of the elements and the non-reactivity of the inner-shell electrons are two related principles of chemistry,rooted in the atomic shell structure.Within compounds,Group I elements,for example,invariably assume the+1 oxidation state,and their chemical properties differ completely from those of the p-block elements.These general rules govern our understanding of chemical structures and reactions.Using first principles calcula-     

Exchange-Correlation and Electronic Excitation Energies from Pairing Matrix Fluctuations

We have developed an adiabatic connection to formulate the ground-state exchange-correlation energy in terms of pairing matrix linear fluctuations.This formulation of the exchange-correlation energy opens a new channel for density functional approximations based on the many-body perturbation theory.We illustrate the potential of such approaches with an approximation based on the particle-particle Random Phase Approximation(pp-RPA).This re-     

Density Functional Theory for the Response of Periodic Systems to Electric Fields Based on the Vector Potential Approach

正The electronic and nuclear(structural/vibrational)response of 1D-3D nanoscale systems to electric fields gives rise to a host of optical,mechanical,spectral,etc.properties that are of high theoretical and applied interest.Due to the computational difficulty of treating such large systems it is convenient to model them as infinite and periodic(at least,in first approximation).The fundamental theoretical/computational problem in doing so is that     

On the Thermodynamic Limit for Responses to Static Electromagnetic Fields

For molecular systems,the quantum-mechanical treatment of their responses to static electromagnetic fields usually employs a scalar-potential treatment of the electric field and a vector-potential treatment of the magnetic field.Although the potential for each field separately is associated with the choice of an(unphysical)origin,the precise choice of the origin for the electrostatic field has little consequences for the results.This is different for the     

An affordable accurate evaluation of the binding conformations predicted by molecular docking studies in bio-system

Franck-Condon factors bridge the gap between theoretical modeling and experimental observations for molecular electronic spectroscopy and electron transfer.Under the displaced harmonic oscillator approximation,multidimensional Franck-Condon factors are decomposed into a product of many one-dimensional(1D)Franck-Condon(FC)factors,and each 1D-FC factor is associated with one Huang-Rhys factor that determines the leading contribution of     

Call for Papers

<正>"The Journal of Shanghai Normal University:Mathematics"is published by Shanghai Normal University as regular issues of The Journal of Shanghai Normal University each year from 2014 in English.The editors-in-chief of the issues are professors Yuhao Cong and Maoan Han.The Journal of Shanghai Normal University was started in 1958 with