基于Agent的Web网信息传播仿真模型

web网上的信息传播是社会复杂网络与信息复杂网络相互作用的结果。分析了web网和网民社会关系的结构特征,定义了信息价值时变函数,将网民基本行为归纳为读、写、评、传四类。基于多Agent建模方法建立web网信息传播仿真模型,用BA算法生成虚拟信息环境,采用WS模型刻画虚拟社会关系;定义了网民Agent的属性和行为规则,以及网民和网站的交互规则。设计了相关算法,实现了仿真模型,仿真结果表明该模型能够较好地模拟常态下的网络信息传播规律。

Abstract：

Information diffusion on the worldwide web results from the interactions between social network and information network.The structural characteristic of Worldwide Web and users＇ social network was analyzed,the time-dependent function of information value was defined,and users＇ basic behavior was classified into read,write,review and propagate.An agent-based model of information diffusion on the web was built,the virtual information environment was generated by BA algorithm,and the virtual social network was depicted with WS algorithm.The property of agents,the behavior rules of users,and the interaction rules between user and web site were described.All the related algorithms were designed and the simulation model was implemented.The results show that some information diffusion rules in normal situation can be reproduced.     

Application of Disaggregated Logit Modeling with Stated Preference Method in Park and Ride Behavior for Non-local Private Car Travelers in Big Events

During big events, non-local private car travelers can be divided into two types which were returning in one day and in several days. It was demonstrated that those two kinds of travelers have distinct behavior on park and ride （P＆R）, due to their different travel demand and behavior attributes. In this paper focusing on the travelers returning in several days, the travel attributes and requirements for P＆R were analyzed with stated preference survey. A P＆R choice behavior disaggregated logit model was established and calibrated based on random utility theory. The model concludes three variables, which were travel time, parking fee and comprehensive attractiveness index for suburban satellite towns comparing to urban district. The results revealed that for travelers returning in several days the primary key point is increasing the attractiveness of suburban satellite towns.     

求解约束优化问题的动量粒子群算法

为解决约束优化问题,提出使用双可行域吸引子策略改进动量粒子群算法。该算法只需初始种群中有一个粒子位于可行域内,随着搜索过程的进行,整个种群自动进入可行域内搜索。一方面,在搜索过程早期,由于可行域内粒子少,所有粒子移向相同的吸引子,整个种群迅速进入可行域内。另一方面,随着进入可行域粒子的增多,由于每个粒子使用距本身最近的可行域吸引子,较好地维持了种种群的多样性,避免早熟现象的发生,使算法具有较好的寻优性能。与国际上当前解决约束优化问题的粒子群算法在4个标准约束优化函数上测试比较,实验结果表明本算法取得的最优值要优于其它粒子群算法。

Abstract：

The strategy that two good positions in feasible region worked as attractors was incorporated into momentum particle swarm optimization algorithm in order to resolve constrained optimization problems. The resulting algorithm only requires that one of the initial particles is in the feasible region, and then all particles in the swam automatically move into the feasible region. On the one hand, in the early iterations few particles appear in the feasible region and hence all particles move toward the same attractors, so the particles soon enter into the feasible region. On the other hand, as the number of particles in the feasible region increases, each particle adopts the most near attractor so that each particle has different attractor. Therefore, the algorithm maintains the diversity of the population, alleviates the premature, and hence achieves good performance. The algorithm is compared with other particle swarm optimization algorithms on four benchmark functions. The experimental results show that the solution of the algorithm is better than that of others.     

单线列车运行调整的梯度搜索算法仿真与研究

列车运行调整的优化是一个非常复杂的问题,需考虑的因素很多,很难给出一个完美的优化模型。根据单线列车运行调整的特点,建立了单线列车运行图的离散事件拓扑图模型,提出了＂调整运行图综合满意度＂作为运行调整的目标,并进一步论证了＂调整运行图综合满意度＂函数的单调递减特性;提出了冲突树的概念和梯度搜索算法的算法原理及搜索步骤,并实例进行仿真。仿真结果表明,该算法模型在实际运行过程中的具有较好的优化性和有效性。

Abstract：

The optimization of railway rescheduling is a very complex issue, many factors should to be taken into account, and it’s difficult to give a perfect optimization model. A discrete event topologic diagram model was derived according to the characteristics of the single-track railway diagram, and the ＂comprehensive satisfaction of the adjusted train diagram＂ was proposed as the target of the railway rescheduling, then the monotonically decreasing characteristic of the target function was demonstrated. The concept of conflict tree was developed and the principle and steps of the gradient search algorithm based on the DET model were given and simulated. The simulation results show that this algorithm has better adaptability and effectiveness in practical application.     

多阶段分散化投资组合效率估计

The existing multi-period portfolio diversification performance evaluation models are mainly divided into two categories. The first category is to build a performance evaluation model based on the return rate of portfolio at each period. The other category is to evaluate portfolio performance by using efficient frontier. However, the former ignores the dynamic relationship among the time periods, while the latter has limitations when there exists friction in financial market. To address this problem, the actual investment of the input-output process was clarified and defined, and the definition of multi-period portfolio efficiency were given based on the distance between portfolio under evaluation and its projection point on the efficient frontier. Under the multi-period mean-variance theoretical framework, the middle connection condition in the multi-period portfolio evaluation problem was derived by using the wealth dynamic process, so as to build a two-period portfolio efficiency estimation model under different orientation. Since the above-mentioned middle connection condition is random, it not workable in actual evaluation. Therefore, in this paper, the first moment and second moment of the above random conditions were used to replace the original one, and another kind of two-period portfolio efficiency estimation model was built. The numerical analyses show that this proposed model is effective.     

一种语义扩展的DEVS模型表示方法

离散事件系统规范（DEVS）是建立在一般系统理论的基础上的有效的模块化系统建模规范。针对当前基于DEVS的仿真模型表示方法不能描述模型上下文,不能有效支持模型语义组合、重用的问题,提出了语义扩展的DEVS模型表示方法（SEM-DEVS）。SEM-DEVS在原有的DEVS模型规范基础上,增加了模型的实验框架和语义扩展接口,增加了对模型行为表示能力的要求。在SEM-DEVS形式化定义的基础上给出了实验框架以及语义扩展接口的逻辑关系及匹配方法。以逻辑公式方式表示实验框架和语义扩展接口,给出SEM-DEVS的一种实现方法。

Abstract：

Based on general theory, DEVS is an effective and module modeling specification. For the problem of lacking capability of current model representation approaches to describe context and support semantics reuse and composition of simulation model, a Semantic Extended DEVS （SEM-DEVS） model representation approach was proposed. On the base of DEVS, experiment frame and semantic extended port of model were extended to SEM-DEVS. Stricter request to describe the behavior of model was proposed in SEM-DEVS. Logic relationship and match method of experiment frame and semantic extended port of model was brought forward base on formal definition of SEM-DEVS. An implement of SEM-DEVS was proposed, in which experiment frame and semantic extended port were both represented by logic formulas.     

网络信息传播动力学建模研究

对网络传播机理建模是利用或控制网络传播的基础。网络信息传播系统具有复杂的动力学特征,其中的个体行为具有适应性。采用社会物理学研究思路,借鉴物理学振动传播的概念,对网络传播系统中各动力学因子进行了类比定义。根据动力学因子对网民传播行为的影响机理,建立具有随机性和适应性的网民信息传播微观动力学模型,使微观个体行为与宏观的系统状态关联起来。在此基础上构建仿真模型,通过仿真实验分析了网络传播系统S型函数的非线性演化特征,为类似系统的建模提供了新思路。

Abstract：

Modeling the mechanism of information diffusion is the basis of network diffusion utilizing and controlling. The diffusion of information on the Internet is with dynamical complexity, and the individual behavior is adaptive. Adopting the thinking in social physics, the dynamic factors in the information diffusion system on the analog of the spread of vibration in physics was defined. Then the microscopic dynamic model of net user’s randomicity and adaptability behavior was quantitatively built based on the mechanism of dynamic factor taking effect on the behavior of net users. In this way, the microscopic behavior was associated with system evolution at macro level. Simulation software was developed based on those models. The S_shape nonlinear evolution characteristics of information diffusion on the Internet with computing experiments were analyzed. This solution may be used in modeling similar systems.     

探测器指标对制导精度的影响分析

阐述了脉冲力质心控制的特点和简易制导弹药的弹体追踪制导律原理,分析了探测器最小作用距离对脱靶量的影响。建立了探测器模型和脉冲力控制模型,通过六自由度弹道模型仿真,给出探测器不灵敏域大小对弹丸制导精度的影响。结果表明,减小探测器最小作用距离和优化探测器不灵敏域可以有效提高弹丸的命中精度。

Abstract：

The characteristic of impulse force control and the principle of body pursuit guidance law of simple guided projectiles were introduced,and the miss distance influenced by the minimum detecting range of photo-detector was analyzed. The models of the photo-detector and impulse force were established,according to the simulation of six degree trajectory model,the hit precision influenced by the non-sensitive area was proposed. The result shows that reducing the minimum detecting range and optimizing the non-sensitive area of photo-detector can improve the hit precision greatly.     

Prediction Model on Chinese Annual Live Hog Supply and Its Application

In this paper,a prediction model on Chinese annual live hog supply was established.With cointegration test,backward and forward stochastic selection and other methods,four main factors(hog price,prices of inputs in hog production,the level of hog inventory,as well as emergency and government policy) were chosen from 16 relevant factors to establish the model and make improvement.Applied the improved model,annual live hog supply in China from 2013 to 2016 was predicted in three scenarios.The predicted results showed that if there were no major emergencies from 2013 to 2016,there would be an upward trend in Chinese live hog supply year by year.The supply of live hogs in China in 2013 would be about 707.663 million head,in 2014 would be between 715.935 and 742.969 million head,in 2015 between 734.458 and 779.413 million head,and in 2016 between 750.923 and809.450 million head.     

基于视景通道的透镜成像过程仿真技术研究

针对计算机成像模型在使用过程中存在的不足,提出了对该模型进行完善与改进的方法。首先根据数字变焦原理,推导出放大倍率与视锥角的关系公式,实现了视景通道的变焦功能,该方法计算量小,效果逼真;其次,提出了一种镜头对焦过程的仿真方法,它充分利用粒子系统技术模拟对焦成像由模糊到清晰的过程,不仅获得更真实的图像效果,且满足实时性要求。上述改进后模型与实际摄像系统原理基本一致,增强了仿真系统视觉效果逼真性与沉浸感。由于该方法在工程上极易实现,可以在虚拟现实系统中广泛应用。

Abstract：

A way that could be improved was brought forward on the pin-hole camera model in allusion to the problems of the insufficient cue of depth. The relation formulas of the magnification and aspect angle were concluded according to the principles of digital zoom and the zooming function of visual channels was realized. The implementation of this method is simple and the effect is realistic. Besides,a simulation method for the course of adjusting focus was proposed,which brought blurry images into focus by particle system. Both vivid images and real time requirement could be achieved. The ameliorated model runs in the same way as the real camera system on the theory,thus enhancing the fidelity and immersion of visual effects. It is so easy to implement in project that this approach can be used universally in VR systems.     

Optimal oppor tunistic maintenance model of multi-unit systems

An opportunistic maintenance model is presented for a continuously deteriorating series system with economical de-pendence. The system consists of two kinds of units, which are respectively subjected to the deterioration failure described by Gamma process and the random failure described by Poisson process. A two-level opportunistic policy defined by three decision parameters is proposed to coordinate the different maintenance actions and minimize the long-run maintenance cost rate of the system. A computable expression of the average cost rate is established by using the renewal property of the stochastic process of the maintained system state. The optimal values of three deci- sion parameters are derived by an iteration approach based on the characteristic of Gamma process. The behavior of the proposed policy is illustrated through a numerical experiment. Comparative study with the widely used corrective maintenance policy demonstrates the advantage of the proposed opportunistic maintenance method in significantly reducing the maintenance cost. Simultane- ously, the applicable area of this opportunistic model is discussed by the sensitivity analysis of the set-up cost and random failure rate.     

System of developing scale modeling and simulation for URAV

The unmanned reconnaissance aerial vehicle （URAV） plays an important role in battlefield monitoring and information acquiring because of its advantage of zero casualties, and has thus attracted considerable attention of the world. The URAV was developed rapidly in our country, however, no scientific assessment methods have yet been provided owing to different fight requirements of armed forces. Considering the demand of the missile artillery on the martial information, the model of information requirement of combat force, the reconnaissance ability of URAV, the survivability of URAV, and the task reliability of URAV were constructed, respectively. By synthesizing the mathematic models above, the model of developing demand was constructed on the URAV equipment. It simulated and calculated some URAV equipment developing scales, and explored a way of settling the problem of URAV equipment developing demand.     

电力关键基础设施网络仿真模型研究

电力网络模型是关键基础设施模型中的重要组成部分。分析了现实电力网络的拓扑结构和运行原理,根据复杂网络的基本理论,采用基于Agent的建模方法设计实现了关键基础设施中电力网络模型。通过仿真实验,较好的模拟了电力系统输送电能的动态过程和因偶发故障而造成的大规模停电现象,对复杂电力网络的动力学特性进行了初步探索。

Abstract：

The model of electric power network is a major part of critical infrastructure model. The topology of network structure and the principle of net function were analyzed, according to the theory of complex network, applying the agent-based modeling to design and realize the model of electric power network. Through the simulation experiment, it was demonstrated to be better ways to simulate the dynamic progress of electric transmission and the cascading failure phenomenon caused by incidental trouble. The simulation model offers an effective approach to analysis electric power network’s role in critical infrastructure, and makes a step to exploration for complex electric power network’s dynamic character.     

编队箔条弹与舰空导弹武器火力兼容模型

编队箔条弹干扰与舰空导弹协同防空作战中的火力兼容控制属于编队软硬武器火力兼容控制的一种基本情况。通过建立编队坐标系中箔条云假目标位置变化动态模型和舰空导弹起控点参数模型,从箔条云对雷达电磁波散射的角度出发,提出了基于箔条云对电磁波衰减特性的箔条弹与舰空导弹火力兼容判别模型,通过协同控制编队中舰空导弹的发射时间,避免了箔条弹对导弹的干扰,解决了二者之间的火力冲突。研究成果有助于提高编队防空作战能力,并为编队其它软硬武器火力兼容研究提供借鉴。

Abstract：

The firepower compatibility of fleet chaff jamming and ship-to-air missile cooperative air defense is one of the basic forms of fleet hard and soft weapon firepower compatibility.The model of chaff cloud decoy target moving and the guidance starting point position model of ship-to-air missile were established.Based on the characteristic of electromagnetic scattering from chaff cloud and the attenuation of chaff cloud to electromagnetic waves,the firepower compatibility model of fleet chaff jamming and ship-to-air missile was given.By controlling the time of missile launched,the jamming from chaff clouds could be avoided,and the conflicts between chaff jamming shell and missile were solved.The model can be used for reference researches in this area.     

基于多粒度模型的导弹MDO方法研究

根据MDO环境的建模/仿真需求,针对某导弹多学科设计优化问题,分析了多粒度模型建模/仿真的必要性,以气动学科为例探讨了导弹MDO环境中多粒度模型的建模/仿真方法,研究了有限元分析软件FLUENT及其前处理软件GAMBIT的集成方法,并利用响应面分析、工程估算、数值计算三种方法对某导弹的气动学科进行多粒度的建模与解算,将输出的主要气动参数与风洞试验数据进行了比较与分析。研究结果表明多粒度模型的建模/仿真对提高导弹MDO效率具有重要意义。

Abstract：

According to the requirement of modeling and simulation in MDO environment, with consideration of missile’s Multidisciplinary Design Optimization problem, the necessity of modeling and simulation on multi-granularity model was analyzed. Taking pneumatic domain as an example, method of modeling and simulation on multi-granularity in missile’s MDO environment was discussed. The integration methods of finite element software FLUENT and its pre-processing software GAMBIT were studied. Through abundant experiments, data results of computing multi-granularity model were given using three methods, namely Response Surface Analysis, engineering prediction method and numerical computation method. Finally, comparison of the data got from above and from wind tunnel test was analyzed. The study results show that modeling and simulation on multi-granularity model are significant to improve MDO efficiency.     

基于PDES的最小时间桶算法研究

混合策略在一定程度上避免了过分保守或极端乐观的缺点。首先分析了现有同步机制存在的不足,然后论述了视界概念及最小时间桶算法的设计与实现,接着对最小时间桶算法的性能进行了定性定量的深入探讨,最后采用PHOLD仿真应用模型在MTB算法、保守算法和TW乐观算法之间进行了性能对比实验,实验结果表明：MTB算法在某些条件下具有更小的回退开销和更快的事件处理效率。

Abstract：

Hybrid strategy to some certain extent avoids the shortcomings of the excessive conservation and extremely optimism. The shortcoming of the existing time synchronization algorithms was analyzed; then the very important conception of the event horizon,furthermore was proposed,and the design and the realization of the Minimum Time Buckets Algorithm were put forward. The remainder provided the farther research for the performance of this algorithm by qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. Finally,the PHOLD simulation model was used to compare the performance of conservative algorithm,TW algorithm and MTB algorithm. The experiment results indicate that under some conditions MTB algorithm has lower rollback costs and faster event process speed,which lead to better performance than TW and conservative algorithms.     

复杂电磁环境生灭模型及特征生成

复杂电磁环境主要由各类辐射源辐射的电磁信号交互作用而产生。应用随机理论,建立了辐射源的生灭过程模型,采用蒙特卡洛方法动态仿真辐射源状态;建立了给定目标点的有效辐射源筛选、功率密度计算和辐射脉冲流密度计算模型;给出了仿真流程。满足电磁环境仿真的适应性、动态性和实时性需求。

Abstract：

Complex electromagnetic environment comes from many different radiations and their interaction. A birth-death model of radiant points was built on the stochastic theory, and then the states of radiant points were dynamically simulated by Monte Carlo. Some characters creating models were built, including model of filtering valid radiant points, model of power density computing and model of pulse steam density computing. Finally, a simulation process was proposed. All of those have met electromagnetic environment simulation requirement in adaptability, dynamic and real-time.     

在线订餐生产配送联合调度模型及算法

The delays of online meal ordering delivery are currently serious. How to coordinate the production and distribution to minimize arrival time has become an urgent problem for online meal ordering during the peak period. Considering the fact that the order information are unknown in advance, a parallel machine production and multi-trip vehicle distribution joint optimization model was established to minimize the makespan of total orders. Besides, a three phase heuristic algorithm was proposed. Through a series of experiments where the orders were generated based on Poisson distribution (),the results were compared with those of the traditional algorithm. Several enlightening findings are discovered: when the order arrival rate, the makespan of total orders of the three phase heuristic algorithm is shorter. Meanwhile with the growth of order arrival rate, the improvement amplitude increases gradually. The model and algorithms proposed are conducive to generating efficiently production and distribution joint scheduling solution during the peak period.