基于多粒度模型的导弹MDO方法研究

根据MDO环境的建模/仿真需求,针对某导弹多学科设计优化问题,分析了多粒度模型建模/仿真的必要性,以气动学科为例探讨了导弹MDO环境中多粒度模型的建模/仿真方法,研究了有限元分析软件FLUENT及其前处理软件GAMBIT的集成方法,并利用响应面分析、工程估算、数值计算三种方法对某导弹的气动学科进行多粒度的建模与解算,将输出的主要气动参数与风洞试验数据进行了比较与分析。研究结果表明多粒度模型的建模/仿真对提高导弹MDO效率具有重要意义。

Abstract：

According to the requirement of modeling and simulation in MDO environment, with consideration of missile’s Multidisciplinary Design Optimization problem, the necessity of modeling and simulation on multi-granularity model was analyzed. Taking pneumatic domain as an example, method of modeling and simulation on multi-granularity in missile’s MDO environment was discussed. The integration methods of finite element software FLUENT and its pre-processing software GAMBIT were studied. Through abundant experiments, data results of computing multi-granularity model were given using three methods, namely Response Surface Analysis, engineering prediction method and numerical computation method. Finally, comparison of the data got from above and from wind tunnel test was analyzed. The study results show that modeling and simulation on multi-granularity model are significant to improve MDO efficiency.     

Physical Examination Data Based Cataract Risk Analysis

Cataract is a very common eye disease and the most significant cause of blindness.In consideration of its burden on society,the focus was put on testing the risk factors of cataract and building robust machine learning models in which these factors can be utilized to predict the risk of cataract.The data used herein was collected by a Chinese physical examination center located in Shanghai.It contains more than 120,000 examinees and about 500 physical examination metrics.Firstly,association rules were adopted to filter 39 abnormalities which are more likely to incur the risk of cataract,and the significance of these abnormalities was tested with univariate analysis and multivariate analysis.The test results indicate that age,diabetes,refractive error,retinal arteriosclerosis,thyroid nodules,and incomplete mammary gland degeneration significantly increase the possibility of cataract.Various machine learning models were compared in terms of their performance in predicting the risk of cataract based on these six factors,among which the logistic regression model and the decision-tree based ensemble methods outperform others.The test set A U C of these models can reach 0.84.     

Optimization approach of background value and initial item for improving prediction precision of GM（1,1） model

A combination method of optimization of the back-ground value and optimization of the initial item is proposed. The sequences of the unbiased exponential distribution are simulated and predicted through the optimization of the background value in grey differential equations. The principle of the new information priority in the grey system theory and the rationality of the initial item in the original GM（1,1） model are ful y expressed through the improvement of the initial item in the proposed time response function. A numerical example is employed to il ustrate that the proposed method is able to simulate and predict sequences of raw data with the unbiased exponential distribution and has better simulation performance and prediction precision than the original GM（1,1） model relatively.     

A review of tactical planning models

The aim of this paper is to give an overview on models and methods used to solve tactical planning problems. The modeling and the elaboration of the well-know tactical planning problems （master planning ＆ scheduling, material requirement planning and multi-site planning） are discussed. These problems are modeled from two ＂lot sizing＂ models called the Capacitated Lot Sizing Problem （CLSP） and Multi Level Capacitated Lot Sizing Problem （MLCLSP）. From both models, a lot of extensions has been proposed in the literature. The purpose of this paper is twofold： first, classifications of the CLSP and MLCLSP as well as their extensions are given. For each model, the major scientific contributions are mentioned. These classifications made from seventy papers give an overview of ＂lot sizing＂ models dedicated to the MPS, MRP and Multi-site and show the diversity of models. Second, from a classification, an analysis of methods used for each model is given. The instance size, best gap and reference for gap computation are given for each contribution, This work can be used to elaborate an optimization tool for tactical planning problematic such as Advanced Planning System.     

准坐标系下的弹性飞行器飞行动力学建模

结合有限元思想和拉格朗日方程推导了准坐标系下的弹性飞行器飞行动力学模型,与通常采用的平均轴系建模方法相比,该方法克服了变量难在相同坐标系下表示等缺点,而且该模型包含了自由度之间所有的耦合,能够更充分的反映刚性自由度与弹性自由度间的交叉耦合特性,更全面的从本质上体现飞行器结构动力学、空气动力学以及飞行动力学这种多学科之间相互影响的非线性飞行动力学特性。该动力学模型可用于弹性飞行器非线性稳定性分析、弹性飞行器飞行动力学与控制理论分析等。

Abstract：

As the frequency separation between the rigid body modes and the structural dynamics becomes tighter, the traditional aircraft flight mechanics treatment, there is, the rigid body approximation, may be not efficient. A complete coupled equation of motion for fully flexible aircrafts were derived, without any constraint relationship, which was done by employing Lagrange’s equations and the finite element method in terms of quasi-coordinates. This model includes automatically all six rigid-body degrees of freedom and elastic deformations, as well as the gravity, propulsion, aerodynamics, and control forces, in addition to forces of an external nature, such as gusts. Different from the modeling method based on ＂mean axes＂ coordinate system, the seamless integration was achieved by using the same reference frame and the same variables to describe the aircraft motions and the force acting on it, including the aerodynamic forces. The formulation is modular in nature, in the sense that the structural model, the aerodynamic theory, and the controls method can be replaced by any other ones to better suit different types of aircraft, provided certain criteria are satisfied.     

Discovery of latent structures: Experience with the CoIL Challenge 2000 data set*

The authors present a case study to demonstrate the possibility of discovering complex and interesting latent structures using hierarchical latent class （HLC） models. A similar effort was made earlier by Zhang （2002）, but that study involved only small applications with 4 or 5 observed variables and no more than 2 latent variables due to the lack of efficient learning algorithms. Significant progress has been made since then on algorithmic research, and it is now possible to learn HLC models with dozens of observed variables. This allows us to demonstrate the benefits of HLC models more convincingly than before. The authors have successfully analyzed the CoIL Challenge 2000 data set using HLC models. The model obtained consists of 22 latent variables, and its structure is intuitively appealing. It is exciting to know that such a large and meaningful latent structure can be automatically inferred from data.     

COMBINING SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS AND PAR（p） STRUCTURES TO MODEL WIND SPEED TIME SERIES

Singular spectrum analysis （SSA） is a technique that decomposes a time series into a set of components, such as, trend, harmonics, and residuals. Leaving out the residual components and adding up the others, the time series can be smoothed. This procedure has been used to model Brazilian electricity consumption and flow series. The PAR（p）, periodic autoregressive models, has been broadly used in modelling energy series in Brazil. This paper presents an approach of this decomposition method, by fitting the PAR（p）, considering its multivariate version known as multivariate SSA （MSSA）. The method was applied to a vector of two wind speed series recorded at two locations in the Brazilian Northeast region. The obtained results, when compared to the univariate decomposition of each series, were far superior, showing that the spatial correlation between the two series were considered by MSSA decomposition stage.     

基于自适应观测器和自抗扰控制的PMSM直接转矩控制

提出一种新的自适应观测器,用于永磁同步电机直接转矩控制系统的定子磁链和定子电阻估计。该观测器利用静止坐标系下的电压模型估计定子磁链,采用转子坐标系下的电流模型估计定子电流,把定子电流估计误差通过增益矩阵作为反馈信号。定子电阻自适应律根据李亚普诺夫稳定性理论推出,观测器的增益矩阵采用极点配置方法得到,观测器的收敛性根据李亚普诺夫稳定性分析来保证。此外,采用自抗扰控制技术设计了速度控制器,该控制器能对负载扰动进行估计和补偿。仿真结果证明了所提自适应观测器的有效性和自抗扰控制器的抗负载扰动能力。

Abstract：

A new adaptive observer was proposed to estimate the stator flux and stator resistance in the direct torque controlled permanent magnet synchronous motor （PMSM） drive. The stator flux was estimated by using the motor voltage model in the stationary frame, and the stator currents were estimated by using the motor current model in the rotor frame. The current estimation errors were then used as feedback signals through a gain matrix. Stator resistance adaptive law was developed based on Lyapunov stability theory. The observer gain matrix was obtained by using the pole placement method. The stability of the adaptive observer was guaranteed by the Lyapunov stability analysis. In addition, a speed controller was designed based on active disturbance rejection control （ADRC） technique to estimate and compensate the load disturbance. Simulation results have confirmed both the effectiveness of the adaptive observer and the anti-load-disturbance performance of the active disturbance rejection controller.     

System of developing scale modeling and simulation for URAV

The unmanned reconnaissance aerial vehicle （URAV） plays an important role in battlefield monitoring and information acquiring because of its advantage of zero casualties, and has thus attracted considerable attention of the world. The URAV was developed rapidly in our country, however, no scientific assessment methods have yet been provided owing to different fight requirements of armed forces. Considering the demand of the missile artillery on the martial information, the model of information requirement of combat force, the reconnaissance ability of URAV, the survivability of URAV, and the task reliability of URAV were constructed, respectively. By synthesizing the mathematic models above, the model of developing demand was constructed on the URAV equipment. It simulated and calculated some URAV equipment developing scales, and explored a way of settling the problem of URAV equipment developing demand.     

Test selection and optimization for PHM based on failure evolution mechanism model

The test selection and optimization （TSO） can improve the abilities of fault diagnosis, prognosis and health-state evalua- tion for prognostics and health management （PHM） systems. Traditionally, TSO mainly focuses on fault detection and isolation, but they cannot provide an effective guide for the design for testability （DFT） to improve the PHM performance level. To solve the problem, a model of TSO for PHM systems is proposed. Firstly, through integrating the characteristics of fault severity and propa- gation time, and analyzing the test timing and sensitivity, a testability model based on failure evolution mechanism model （FEMM） for PHM systems is built up. This model describes the fault evolution- test dependency using the fault-symptom parameter matrix and symptom parameter-test matrix. Secondly, a novel method of in- herent testability analysis for PHM systems is developed based on the above information. Having completed the analysis, a TSO model, whose objective is to maximize fault trackability and mini- mize the test cost, is proposed through inherent testability analysis results, and an adaptive simulated annealing genetic algorithm （ASAGA） is introduced to solve the TSO problem. Finally, a case of a centrifugal pump system is used to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed models and methods. The results show that the proposed technology is important for PHM systems to select and optimize the test set in order to improve their performance level.     

虚拟样机多学科设计优化问题建模研究

针对虚拟样机多学科设计优化框架对多学科问题描述的需求,对多学科设计优化问题的建模方法进行研究,提出用XML语言对多学科优化问题模型进行描述。通过分析多学科设计优化问题模型特点,得出多学科设计优化问题模型及其子模型的形式化描述,并给出其中一个主要模型的XMLSchema描述规范。开发了通用多学科设计优化问题建模工具,用于基于Web的虚拟样机多学科设计优化框架中的求解问题模型的输入,并给出某型导弹多学科设计优化问题的建模实例。实践表明建模方法和建模工具方便可行。     

基于有向循环图的多学科设计优化模型调度方法

复杂产品的多学科设计优化过程中，往往会涉及到不同学科的专业分析模型以及各种商业软件应用的集成调度运行问题。在多学科设计优化过程中模型应用集成的基础上，结合设计模型的调度需求，研究了多学科模型的调度运行，并给出了基于有向循环图的通用模型调度解决方案，包括回路探测算法和模型调度算法。最后设计并实现了支持复杂产品多学科设计优化软件框架——iDesign的调度引擎，并以一个设计模型的调度为例，验证了方法的正确性和可行性。     

Multidisciplinary Design-Optimization Methods for Aircrafts using Large-Scale System Theory

The relationship between multidisciplinary design optimization (MDO) for aircrafts and the large-scale system theory was expatiated. Using the large-scale system theory, the system was decomposed gradually based on the different classification standards and the system characteristics. At the same time, the MDO methods for aircrafts were classified according to the decomposition-coordination method of the large-scale system theory. The theory background and applicable range of each algorithm were elucidated. Aircraft design system is a typical engineering large-scale system, and the basic of MDO for aircrafts is the large-scale system theory. Therefore, the large-scale system theory and MDO for aircrafts should be studied simultaneously to improve the MDO.     

基于DoDAF的空基反导装备体系结构建模

空基反导是实现对战术弹道导弹(tactical ballistic missile, TBM)助推段主动防御的有效拦截方式。从探讨空基反导装备的体系需求入手,提出了使用国防部体系结构框架(department of defense architecture framework, DoDAF)视图产品建立空基反导装备体系结构可执行模型的方法和步骤,给出了空基反导装备体系结构和作战需求的可视化描述。具体采用了基于活动的静态模型描述空基反导装备的体系结构,采用基于过程和对象的动态模型描述空基反导装备的体系需求。     

基于复杂系统理论的信息化战争体系对抗仿真

以复杂系统理论为指导,采用还原论与整体论相结合的研究方法,基于复杂网络拓扑结构、多Agent理论与计算机仿真技术对信息化战争体系对抗作战行为演化的微观作用机制与宏观涌现现象复杂行为机理进行探索性研究,提出基于复杂网络的信息化战争体系对抗建模与仿真的技术路线,建立基于复杂网络与多Agent理论的信息化战争体系对抗仿真模型,分析信息化战争体系对抗建模与仿真的关键技术,探讨信息化战争体系对抗仿真建模的主要方法,并就基于复杂系统理论的信息化战争体系对抗建模与仿真的发展前景进行了展望。

Abstract：

The micro-interactions and macro-emergence mechanism of evolutive behavior on the combat System of Systems （SoS） created for Net-Centric Operations （NCO） was researched on the guidance of system complexity theory,complexity science and Complex System Theory （CST）,combining Reductionism with Holism,on basis of complex network modeling,multi-agent and computer simulation technology.Then,the technical scheme of Simulation of the SoS vs.the SoS of the Net-Centric Operations （MSSNCO） was put forward,which included constructing simulation models for the SoS vs.SoS of NCO on the basis of Complex Network （CN） and Multi-Agent theory.Successively,the key technique of MSSNCO was summarized;at the same time,the major modeling methods of MSSNCO were analyzed.Lastly,development tendency of CN-based MSSNCO was prospected.     

气动和结构多学科优化设计过程集成技术研究

研究了气动和结构多学科优化设计中的过程集成技术问题,详细分析了三维几何建模、CFD、结构强度分析和iSIGHT优化之间的数据集成机理,实现了气动和结构强度的边界设定、载荷加载、优化策略定制和优化结果自动评判等过程的集成。通过基于iSIGHT的集成框架应用实例完成了简单翼的多学科优化设计。     

组合聚类与最优核v-SVR融合方法在能源系统应用

针对能源复杂系统样本数量有限、变量维数高、偶合关系复杂等问题,提出了一种组合聚类算法和最优核v-支持向量回归机SVR融合的方法。该方法采用SOM自组织映射神经网络和K-means组合的聚类算法对初始样本集合进行聚类,构成不同核函数的子支持向量回归机SVR模型,再用均方误差标准（MSE）和小误差概率对其各核函数进行优选,得到最优核函数的v-支持向量回归机SVR模型。仿真结果表明,采用这种方法进行能源供需预测是有效的,其精度优于常规的支持向量回归建模方法。

Abstract：

A method of fusion strategy with Optimal Kernel v-SVR （Support Vector Regression） and assembled clustering algorithm was proposed,facing the issues of complex energy system like limited samples,high dimension,complex coupling.The assembled clustering algorithm was used to cluster the initial samples related to energy data to form sub-SVR models based on different Kernel functions,combining Self-Organizing Map （SOM） neural network with K-means algorithm.The Mean Square Error criterion （MSE） and small error probability were used to evaluate the Kernel functions to obtain the optimal Kernel v-SVR model.The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method is valid for predicting energy supply/demand and its accuracy is superior to the conventional SVR method.     

基于MDA的两层HLA技术研究

HLA缺乏由仿真模型构建联邦成员的统一开发框架,所有联邦成员均是平等的,即体系结构是一种平面关系,联邦成员级的模型重用仍然是一种静态重用,无法实现模型动态加入不同FOM的联邦。提出了一种基于MDA的两层HLA框架FIA/FEI,首先将MDA引入HLA仿真建模,给出了MDA和HLA融合的途径。继而提出了突破了现有HLA的平面结构的资源管理联邦的思想,以支持对元模型的管理和基于元模型的仿真应用联邦的动态组合和FOM信息的动态配置,实现基于元模型的资源重用与共享,提高了HLA的模型资源动态重用与共享能力,应用实例验证了该框架的可行性。

Abstract：

HLA has not HLA uniformed modeling frame for constructing federates from general simulation models, and its all of federates are au pair, i.e. it is planar architecture essentially, so related models are difficult to enter the federations with different FOM dynamically. As a result, model reusing in federate level is static reusing. MDA based HLA with two levels frame （FIA/FEI） was proposed. At first, the schema of MDA integrated HLA was discussed, then the resource management federate was specified, which broke through the plane architecture of existing HLA and supports the management of meta-models, dynamic configuration of FOM information, and dynamic creation of simulation application federate based on meta-models. This two level frame realizes meta-model based resource reusing and sharing, improving the reusing ability and sharing ability of the model resources for HLA. The application practice verifies the feasibility of double level frame.     

捷联惯导系统简化非线性对准研究

对任意大失准角条件下的捷联惯导系统非线性对准进行了建模和简化,并给出了差分GPS辅助条件下的大失准角行进间对准简化模型。针对四组不同量级的初始姿态失准角,分别采用线性模型和非线性模型进行卡尔曼滤波（KF）和Unscented卡尔曼滤波（UKF）静态对准仿真,结果表明文中大失准角非线性模型可适用于任意角度的初始对准,小失准角和大方位失准角情况下UKF对准可达角分级精度,但在水平和方位皆为大失准角情况下UKF收敛至一定程度后仍需与KF配合使用。

Abstract：

Modeling for Strapdown Inertial Navigation System （SINS） initial alignment with arbitrarily misalignment angles was created and simplified,and the nonlinear alignment modeling for SINS initial alignment on-move with the help of Differential GPS （DGPS） was proposed.Simulations of static-base initial alignments through linear Kalman Filtering （KF） and nonlinear Unscented Kalman Filtering （UKF） were carried out with four different weights of initial misalignment angles.Results show that the simplified nonlinear model can implement initial alignment with arbitrarily misalignment angles.The nonlinear UKF can reach minute magnitude precision as all of misalignment angles are small or only azimuth misalignment angle is large.However,if both initial horizontal and azimuth misalignment angles are large,KF is still recommended to use after UKF convergence to small scales.