Analysis of effect factors-based stochastic network planning model

Looking at all the indeterminate factors as a whole and regarding activity durations as independent random variables, the traditional stochastic network planning models ignore the inevitable relationship and dependence among activity durations when more than one activity is possibly affected by the same indeterminate factors. On this basis of analysis of indeterminate effect factors of durations, the effect factors-based stochastic network planning （EFBSNP） model is proposed, which emphasizes on the effects of not only logistic and organizational relationships, but also the dependent relationships, due to indeterminate factors among activity durations on the project period. By virtue of indeterminate factor analysis the model extracts and describes the quantitatively indeterminate effect factors, and then takes into account the indeterminate factors effect schedule by using the Monte Carlo simulation technique. The method is flexible enough to deal with effect factors and is coincident with practice. A software has been developed to simplify the model-based calculation, in VisualStudio.NET language. Finally, a case study is included to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed model and comparison is made with some advantages over the existing models.     

多机编队队形控制建模及可视化仿真系统设计

针对多机协同作战编队队形控制问题,给出了相应的军事概念模型,提出了基于几何约束的三角形、菱形、主从式等典型树形编队控制模型,并通过可视化仿真技术,构建了可用于制定试飞方案的可视化仿真验证环境。验证结果表明基于该编队队形控制的算法可用于简单的模拟飞行操作和战术对抗、验证飞机模型。

Abstract：

In order to control the form of multi-fighters cooperative combat in formation, the military notion model was introduced. Several typical tree form team models （triangle, lozenge and leader-follower） based on geometry constraint were proposed on multi-fighters flying in formation. Through researching VR technology, a visual simulation testing model platform was built for making a plan of flight-testing mission. The simulation results indicate that the arithmetic can be well used on simulating flight, anti-tactics and valuating the flight models.     

COMPLEX ECO-ECONOMY SYSTEM

In the past there were a lot of researches on the topic of economic growth. Nevertheless, the environment has been a bit abstracted by standard economics. Scarce natural resources and our choices to protect them or exploit them jointly determine the economic and environmental systems. In this paper we describe a model with a particular focus on the relationship among income, pollution, and non-renewable resources. We want to combine both economic and environmental sectors. The system dynamics approach is used in analyzing these complex relationships. This paper gives an insight into the possibilities for replacing non-renewable resources with more renewable ones. Next, we present the simulation runs of the model that are conducted with the help of existing system dynamics modeling tools. Only the relationships simulated so far between the variables ought to be put under yet more cautious examination.     

基于UML和XML的数据建模方法及应用

随着仿真技术的发展,建模方式趋向规范化、标准化。在舰载作战系统仿真中,将数据模型划分为概念模型、逻辑模型和物理模型三个层次,使用UML与XML相结合的方法进行数据建模。UML类图用来建立概念模型;XML模式用来建立逻辑模型,针对信息的内容实现数据类型的定义;XML文档是信息的载体,XML模式为最终的XML文档内容提供解释和约束。以仿真系统中的部分数据为例描述了建模的过程和方法。

Abstract：

The modeling method becomes more standardization now as simulation technology is developing. In simulation of shipborne combat system,the data model has three levels including conceptual,logical,and physical. UML and XML is used to do data modeling as UML class diagram for conceptual model,XML Schema for logical model,and XML documents for the final data which is described and restricted by XML Schemas. To describe the process and method of data modeling,an example is given.     

Influence Analysis in Growth Curve Model with Covariate Matrix Disturbance

Abstract： In this paper, we discuss the influence analysis of BLUE in growth curve model with covariate matrix disturbance, and establish the relationships of BLUEs among different models, give the measurement and computational formula which can assess the disturbing influence.     

装甲装备月份维修计划优化制订方法研究

分析装甲装备月份维修计划的制订目前存在的问题,通过研究任务与装甲装备月份维修计划之间的相关关系,提出了根据任务的强度确定维修时机为优化目标的维修计划优化模型,统筹考虑维修资源、规章制度等因素。经LINGO软件仿真验证,结果显示该模型能够极大化装备的使用效益,实现科学化、精确化的送修,以及对装备的集约化管理。

Abstract：

The problems were analyzed that lay in the formulation of the armored equipment month maintenance plan. Based on researches about the relationship between the mission and the month maintenance plan, a maintenance plan optimization formulation model was brought forward. The model took factors such as maintenance resources, rules and regulations into overall consideration, and selected maintenance opportunity based on the strength of the mission as optimization goal. The model was validated by LINGO simulation. The result shows that the model can not only maximize the use efficiency, but also realize the scientific and precise delivery and the intensive management of the equipment which needs preventive maintenance.     

Physical Examination Data Based Cataract Risk Analysis

Cataract is a very common eye disease and the most significant cause of blindness.In consideration of its burden on society,the focus was put on testing the risk factors of cataract and building robust machine learning models in which these factors can be utilized to predict the risk of cataract.The data used herein was collected by a Chinese physical examination center located in Shanghai.It contains more than 120,000 examinees and about 500 physical examination metrics.Firstly,association rules were adopted to filter 39 abnormalities which are more likely to incur the risk of cataract,and the significance of these abnormalities was tested with univariate analysis and multivariate analysis.The test results indicate that age,diabetes,refractive error,retinal arteriosclerosis,thyroid nodules,and incomplete mammary gland degeneration significantly increase the possibility of cataract.Various machine learning models were compared in terms of their performance in predicting the risk of cataract based on these six factors,among which the logistic regression model and the decision-tree based ensemble methods outperform others.The test set A U C of these models can reach 0.84.     

LEARNING CAUSAL GRAPHS OF NONLINEAR STRUCTURAL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL USING INFORMATION THEORY CRITERIA

Detection and clarification of cause-effect relationships among variables is an important problem in time series analysis. Traditional causality inference methods have a salient limitation that the model must be linear and with Gaussian noise. Although additive model regression can effectively infer the nonlinear causal relationships of additive nonlinear time series, it suffers from the limitation that contemporaneous causal relationships of variables must be linear and not always valid to test conditional independence relations. This paper provides a nonparametric method that employs both mutual information and conditional mutual information to identify causal structure of a class of nonlinear time series models, which extends the additive nonlinear times series to nonlinear structural vector autoregressive models. An algorithm is developed to learn the contemporaneous and the lagged causal relationships of variables. Simulations demonstrate the effectiveness of the nroosed method.     

An Application of Fuzzy Decision Theory in Combat Decision Simulation

In this paper a model of military command process under the combat situation is presented. The model is based on the Lanchester Equations and Fuzzy Decision Theory. The decision of a military commander is usually a process from precise to fuzzy and then from fuzzy to precise,and the model fitted this process well. The model was used in a Warfare Simulation System whose object is to evaluate the effectiveness of the military C3I systems.     

Electronic market models for decision support systems on the Web

With the prevalence of the Web, most decision-makers are likely to use the Web to support their decision-making. Web-based technologies are leading a major stream of researching decision support systems (DSS). We propose a formal definition and a conceptual framework for Web-based open DSS (WODSS). The formal definition gives an overall view of WODSS, and the conceptual framework based on browser/broker/server computing mode employs the electronic market to mediate decision-makers and providers, and facilitate sharing and reusing of decision resources. We also develop an admitting model, a trading model and a competing model of electronic market in WODSS based on market theory in economics. These models reveal the key mechanisms that drive WODSS operate efficiently.     

一种军事仿真概念模型的定性反馈表示方法

军事仿真是一个复杂系统,良好的概念模型设计是系统开发的正确性保证,为了便于军事领域专家和系统开发人员交流,提出一种定性反馈表示方法,在基于HLA的军事仿真概念模型设计中引入定性反馈方法表示联邦成员数据交互关系,可以直观表示出各联邦成员的静态和动态关系,为实际仿真系统的开发建立基础。     

任务空间概念模型及其形式化抽象描述

任务空间概念模型对建模与仿真的互操作与重用有着重要的意义，但还没有一个统一的描述方法。文章研究了任务空间概念模型在仿真中的应用，探讨了它与作战想定、作战条令、条例之间的关系，然后对任务空间概念模型进行了形式化抽象描述，从而进一步给出了它的模型层次结构。     

基于情景驱动的军事概念模型的开发

针对当前军事仿真系统开发的复杂性和应用的广泛性,研究了军事概念模型的开发方法。在确定概念模型的评价指标的基础上,提出了基于情景驱动（scenario-driven, SD）的仿真概念模型开发方法,给出了概念模型的格式化描述方法,并利用一般概念模型中语法和语义提取的方法开发出水下对抗仿真系统的概念模型,为后续的可组合仿真研究提供了技术支持。     

基于复杂网络的军事通信网络建模与性能分析

针对军事通信体系的复杂性和网络化结构特点,通过分析体系中装备实体及各装备之间的通信关系,抽取通信网络模型的构建要素,提出军事通信网络图结构模型。在此基础上设计基于图论的测度指标,分别从装备实体重要性、链路通信重要性以及网络抗毁性3个层次分析军事通信网络的性能。最后,通过具体实例对所提模型及评价方法的可行性进行检验,为战场复杂体系建设提供理论依据。     

基于复杂网络的军事通信网络建模与性能分析

针对军事通信体系的复杂性和网络化结构特点,通过分析体系中装备实体及各装备之间的通信关系,抽取通信网络模型的构建要素,提出军事通信网络图结构模型。在此基础上设计基于图论的测度指标,分别从装备实体重要性、链路通信重要性以及网络抗毁性3个层次分析军事通信网络的性能。最后,通过具体实例对所提模型及评价方法的可行性进行检验,为战场复杂体系建设提供理论依据。     

编队协同反潜概念模型研究

概念建模是当前仿真领域的关键技术之一,被用于连接真实世界和仿真模型,建立概念模型有利于实现仿真间的互操作和促进仿真资源的重用。分析了概念模型的建立过程,简要介绍了统一建模语言UML。结合编队协同反潜的特点,建立了实体、任务、动作和交互的概念模型,并利用UML对协同反潜军事活动进行了形式化描述。所建模型可以减小军事专家与仿真技术人员对该活动的认知偏差,缩短建模与仿真的工作周期。     

一种基于军事概念模型的想定生成方法

想定是作战模拟的基本依据,任何一个成功的作战模拟模型都是建立在成功的想定基础之上的.实践表明,想定的拟制工作非常复杂、费时,提出了一种基于军事概念模型的想定生成方法,实现了军事人员在开发想定的同时完成了仿真运行前的数据资源准备工作,提高了仿真的开发效率,保证了仿真的真实性.     

基于Agent行动图的作战建模方法

针对一般的基于Agent作战建模过程中没有实现军事人员主导下的军事概念模型直接驱动的问题,提出一种基于Agent行动图的作战建模方法。在给出基于Agent行动图建模基本原理的基础上,区分Agent行动组织结构图、通信网络图、动作属性图,提出了基于Agent行动图的作战系统静态概念模型建模方法,区分Agent行动指挥交互图、状态行为图,提出了基于Agent行动图的作战系统动态概念模型建模方法;进一步建立了Agent行动图概念模型到行为仿真模型框架转换方法,并设计实现了基于Agent行动图的作战建模工具;最后以装甲分队典型作战行动建模为例,验证了方法的可行性与有效性。     

基于SD的军事行动与战略储备关系仿真模型研究

在对军事与战略储备关系进行分析描述的基础上,以系统动力学(SD)建模方法建立了军事行动与战略储备关系仿真模型,探讨了利用该仿真方法研究军事行动对战略储备影响的可行性,并对仿真实验结果进行了分析。     

基于多主体影响图及博弈论的军事决策建模

具有循环依赖性的决策行为在包括军事决策问题在内的许多领域普遍存在。在博弈论框架下,利用多主体影响图(multi agent influence diagram, MAID)及其结构诱导的关联图,对具有循环依赖性的军事决策问题进行分析和建模,能够准确地描述具有对抗性的军事决策态势,精确地识别决策问题中的循环依赖关系,深刻地揭示军事决策问题的潜在结构信息。实例分析表明,基于多主体影响图及关联图的框架不仅为军事决策提供了新的分析和建模途径,而且同现有方法相比具有多方面的优势。