Twenty-five years of change in scleractinian coral communities of Daya Bay （northern South China Sea） and its response to the 2008 AD extreme cold climate event

Coral reefs worldwide are becoming increasingly and detrimentally impacted upon by a variety of factors including significant climate changes, such as global warming and increased El Nino-Southern Oscillation activity. Generally, the persistence of coral reefs, especially at low-latitudes, is governed, in part, by sea surface temperatures not exceeding the critical limit （-30℃） at which mass mortality can occur. Thus, it is thought that corals living at high-latitudes （i.e., currently cooler sea surface temperatures） will likely respond more favourably to hypothesized future temperature increases than corals living at low-latitudes （i.e., currently warmer sea surface temperatures）. Consequently, high-latitude coral communities may have the potential to act as regions of refugia for many coral species in the face of potential future global warming. The Daya Bay （22°31′--22°50′N）, northern South China Sea, contains several high-latitude non-reefal coral communities and represents one of the most northerly distributions of scleractinian corals within the region. Significantly, Daya Bay has experienced dramatic warming in both air and sea surface temperatures throughout the past 50 years. In this paper, we analyze 25 years of change in the Daya Bay coral communities, based both on historic surveys and our latest 2006--2008 regional ecological surveys. Our results suggest that, contrary to predictions, there have been significant declines in coral cover within the Daya Bay during the past 25 years （i.e., 76.6% coral cover in 1983/1984 to only 15.3% coral cover by 2008）. Such changes also reflect a significant shift in the most abundant coral species, from Acropora pruinosa to Favites abdita. Most of the modern coral communities became established between 15 and 30 years ago, corresponding to a period of increased winter sea surface temperature. However, very few colonies have become established within the last 15 years, despite a more intense period of warming. By taking into account additional factors, we hypothesize that direct anthropogenic impacts, rather than climatic events, have both restricted the development, and drove the decline, of Daya Bay coral communities in the last 15 years. The Daya Bay has also been subjected to occasional extreme cold events during the past 50 years, with the most recent occurring in early 2008 （13 January-13 February）. During the 2008 cold event, the lowest air temperature reaches only 6.6℃, and the mean sea surface temperature for February fall to 〈 14℃, including six continuous days at 12.3℃. Significantly, the sea surface temperatures fall below the hypothesized critical lower temperature threshold （-13℃） that commonly leads to mass mortality in scleractinian coral communities. Surprisingly, our coral community surveys, conducted both before （August 2007） and after （late February 2008） the extreme 2008 cold event, demonstrate that the Daya Bay coral ecosystems are barely impacted upon during the cold period. Those observations suggest that the Daya Bay scleractinian coral communities have developed adaptations to low sea surface temperatures. Overall, our data support the hypothesis that high-latitude coral communities, such as Daya Bay, have the potential to act as areas of refugia for scleractinian corals in the advent of potential future global warming.     

Coupling controls of neotectonism and paleoclimate on the Quaternary sediments of the Yangtze （Changjiang） coast

1 Introduction The Quaternary sediments of the Yangtze coast, re-garding their distribution and origin, have been intensively discussed over the last decades since they are deeply in-volved into many aspects of Quaternary study, such as sea-level fluctuations, paleoclimate change and sediment facies evolution[1―6]. A painstaking effort has been made on the sediment study, which tends to elucidate what the primary control on sediment deposition and sedimentary facies formation is. Of note, nu…     

Hierarchy and nonstationarity in climate systems： Exploring the prediction of complex systems

The prediction theories for complex systems with a hierarchial structure and their applications to the climate process are a significant and forward-looking field of research.However,up to the present,they are yet not known and understood very well. This paper presents a preliminary theoretical frame for them.As a normal example,the basic behaviors and the dynamic strructure of the climate system are discussed in detail.The conclusions indicate that the climate system may be considered as a cascade of several subsystems located in different hierarchies.Such a dynamic structure is just the cause resulting in the nonstationarity.The conclusions also indicate that the main barrier of the climate prediction in theory derives from the contrary between the stationarity hypothesis for the current prediction theory and the nonstationary behavior of the real climate process.In addition,some work is disussed for detecting the nonstationarity in climate and other geophysical data and predicting the nonstationary process developed in recent years.These works may construct a preliminary base for applying to the climate predictions.     

Millennial and orbital variations of El Niño/Southern Oscillation and high-latitude climate in the last glacial period

The El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is believed to have operated continuously over the last glacial-interglacial cycle. ENSO variability has been suggested to be linked to millennial-scale oscillations in North Atlantic climate during that time, but the proposals disagree on whether increased frequency of El Ni?o events, the warm phase of ENSO, was linked to North Atlantic warm or cold periods. Here we present a high-resolution record of surface moisture, based on the degree of peat humification and the ratio of sedges to grass, from northern Queensland, Australia, covering the past 45,000 yr. We observe millennial-scale dry periods, indicating periods of frequent El Ni?o events (summer precipitation declines in El Ni?o years in northeastern Australia). We find that these dry periods are correlated to the Dansgaard-Oeschger events--millennial-scale warm events in the North Atlantic climate record--although no direct atmospheric connection from the North Atlantic to our site can be invoked. Additionally, we find climatic cycles at a semiprecessional timescale (approximately 11,900 yr). We suggest that climate variations in the tropical Pacific Ocean on millennial as well as orbital timescales, which determined precipitation in northeastern Australia, also exerted an influence on North Atlantic climate through atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections.     

Does chemical index of alteration （CIA） reflect silicate weathering and monsoonal climate in the Changjiang River basin？

Chemical weathering of continental silicates significantly influences global climate change,earth surface processes,material cy-cling and oceanic chemical composition.How to quantitatively reconstruct chemical weathering history has become an important issue in global change research.Chemical index of alteration(CIA) has been widely used as a quantitative indicator for estimating the degree of silicate weathering.However,its method of calculation and the limitations of its application are not well understood.In this study,we calculated CIA values from suspended particulate matter collected from the mainstream and major tributaries of the Changjiang River.The values yielded considerable variations at different temporal and spatial scales.The average CIA values increased from the upper to middle-lower reaches,and were lower in the suspended samples taken during the flood than in the dry season.The spatial variation in the CIA is predominantly controlled by basinal monsoon climate.In contrast,the temporal varia-tion in the Changjiang River basin is controlled mainly by the changing provenance of suspended samples in relation to the shift of the precipitation zone.The CIA probably indicates the integrated weathering history in the river basin,and thus,cannot be used as a reliable proxy of instantaneous chemical weathering.Furthermore,the calculation method and hydrodynamic sorting also influence the CIA values.Therefore,caution should be taken when using the CIA as a proxy for studying chemical weathering from different regions.     

Comment on “Low-frequency sea level variation and its correlation with climate events in the Pacific”

The tide gauge results exhibit strong multi-decadal oscillations with detected periodicities up to a quasi-60 years. This translates in the requirement of at least 60-70 years of continuously recorded data without any quality issue and the use of a procedure appropriate for time series with periodic components to infer the acceleration trend. This is not what is done in many recent papers where the oscillating behaviour is neglected and short or incomplete records arbitrarily extended or reconstructed are used to infer wrong accelerating trends. All the tide gauges of enough length and quality show the sea levels are oscillating with important multi-decadal periodicities but absolutely not positively accelerating. The satellite radar altimeter reconstruction of the global mean sea level only available since 1993 shows despite the many uncertainties of a still imperfect procedure a not positively accelerating behaviour. The presence of acceleration in the reconstructed or extended data sets and the lack of acceleration in all the individual tide gauge measurements of enough quality and length certainly deserve further discussion. This is a comment to a previously published original paper made on the basis of other previously published results and not a new original paper.     

Rapid denudation of the Himalayan orogen in the Nyalam area,southern Tibet,since the Pliocene and implications for tectonics–climate coupling

The Himalayan orogen characterized by very high variability in tectonic and climatic processes,and is thus regarded as a natural laboratory for investigating the coupling of tectonics and climate,as well as the influence of this coupling on geomorphological processes.This study uses apatite fission track(AFT)dating of samples from a45-km-long section crossing the Great Himalaya Crystalline Complex(GHC)in the Nyalam area,southern Tibet,to constrain the timing and rate of late Cenozoic denudation.The AFT ages can be divided into two groups:(1)15–6 Ma,to the north of Nyalam town,for which the bestfit line of elevation-age has a gentle slope of 0.05,and for which a denudation rate of 0.27 mm/a is calculated;and(2)3–1 Ma,south of Nyalam town,for which the best-fit line has a steep slope of 0.64,and for which a denudation rate of 1.32 mm/a is calculated.The whole AFT ages has a positive correlation with sample elevation(i.e.,older ages are found at higher elevations),and the geographical location of the point of inflexion of the two fitted lines corresponds closely to the junction of Poqu River near Nyalam town.By integrating the AFT data with thermotectonic modeling,it can be inferred that the GHC has experienced two different periods of denudation:(1)slow denudation during middle to late Miocene(15–6 Ma)is recorded in the northern part of the GHC;and(2)rapid denudation from the Pliocene to the Pleistocene(3–1 Ma)is recorded in the southern part of the GHC.An abrupt change in denudation rate occurred between the two periods,with the Pliocene–Pleistocene denudation rate being five times higher than that during the Miocene.This abrupt change in denudation rate during Pliocene pervaded the Himalayan orogen,and was roughly synchronous with a marked change in global climate at 4–3 Ma,and intensification of the Asian monsoon.Importantly,the later period of rapid denudation in the study region closely coupled to the mean annual precipitation,while there is no clear evidence for large-scale faulting activity and associated uplift during this period.Therefore,climate(precipitation)is inferred to be the main cause of the rapid denudation of the Himalayan orogen since the Pliocene.     

The δ18O variation of a stalagmite from Qixing Cave, Guizhou Province and indicated climate change during the Holocene

A stalagmite from Qixing Cave, Guizhou Province was dated with the TIMS U-series method and its oxygen isotope composition was analyzed. On the basis of the ages and the variations of the δ¹⁸O of the stalagmite, the climate change of the last 7.7 ka has been reconstructed in this area: 7.7–5.8 ka, summer monsoon maximum period; 5.8–3.8 ka summer monsoon weakening period; 3.8–0.15 ka, weakened summer monsoon and high amplitude climate fluctuations period. We put forward that the increasing trend of δ¹⁸O of the stalagmite reflected not only the weakening of the summer monsoon, which was caused by the decreasing of solar radiation in the Northern Hemisphere, but also the possibly decreasing contribution of the southwest monsoon to the rainfall of this area. These results are consistent with the output of the numerical climate-model modeling. The high amplitude fluctuation of the δ¹⁸O may imply the quick shift of the contributions of different moisture sources to the precipitation in this area.     

Different types of La Niña events and different responses of the tropical atmosphere

Historical La Nia events since 1950 are divided into Eastern Pacific(EP) type and Central Pacific(CP) type,and the SSTA developing features as well as the different responses of the tropical atmosphere are further analyzed by using multiple datasets.Classification of different types La Nia is based on the normalized Ni o3 and Ni o4 indices and the SSTA distribution pattern during the mature phase.The minimum negative SSTA for CP La Nia is located over the equatorial central Pacific near the dateline,more westward than that of EP La Nia.It has stronger intensity and larger east-west zonal difference of SSTA over the equatorial Pacific than EP La Nia.Influenced by the different SSTA distribution pattern,CP La Nia induces more westward location of the anomalous sinking motion and the anomalous low-level divergent and high-level convergent winds over the equatorial eastern Pacific.The different response of the tropical atmospheric circulation between EP and CP La Nia is more significant in the upper troposphere than in the lower troposphere.However,the tropical precipitation patterns during the mature phase of EP and CP La Nia are much similar,except the less(more) precipitation over the equatorial central Pacific(eastern Indian Ocean-western Pacific) during CP La Nia than during EP La Nia.     

Evidences of rapid erosion driven by climate in the Yarlung Zangbo （Tsangpo） Great Canyon, the eastern Himalayan syntaxis

Climate and tectonism are both particularly intense in the Yarlung Zangbo (Tsangpo) Great Canyon in the eastern Himalayan syntaxis,which is characterized by the most rapid landscape evolution of anywhere in the world.Thus,the eastern Himalayan syntaxis is one of the best locations to study the interactions between climate and tectonics.This paper investigates the cooling ages of the Doxong La-Baibung profile using apatite fission track (AFT) dating on 11 bedrock samples at elevations ranging from 4210 to 710 m.There are topographic,climatic,metamorphic,and thermochronological gradients in the profile,providing good conditions to study interactions between climate and tectonics.AFT ages ranged from 4.6±0.6 Ma to 1.7±0.3 Ma,and the mean fission track lengths ranged from 11.0 to 12.4 μm.It was found that the cooling rates revealed by AFT ages increased with decreasing elevation.However,the tendency of the cooling rates revealed by the 40 Ar-39 Ar ages was different from that indicated by the AFT ages.Moreover,for most districts of the eastern Himalayan syntaxis,the compiled AFT age distribution correlates well with the annual average precipitation,indicating the coupling of the cooling and erosion rates of the near-surface rock and precipitation.The geothermal history modeling results indicate an obvious increase in the cooling and erosion rate between 1.0 and 0.5 Ma.This age is consistent with other research findings for this time,when the vapor channel of the Yarlung Zangbo Great Canyon began to take effect.These evidences suggest that climate,especially precipitation,has acting as a key factor influencing the rapid cooling and erosion in the Yarlung Zangbo Great Canyon since 1-0.5 Ma.     

温盐环流对气候突变的影响

由于全球气候变暖的一个负反馈机制——温盐环流的存在,使得气候在变暖过程中有可能出现突然变冷事件．地质历史时期气候突变事件的研究表明：这种潜在的突然变冷事件可能会持续几百年甚至上千年．加强对温盐环流强度变化的监测研究对于预测未来的气候变化,制定防灾减灾措施具有重要意义．     

中国历史气候记录揭示的千年干湿变化和重大干旱事件

对中国历史气候记录的研究表明：准周期性是过去1000年间中国东部各区域的干湿气候变化的基本特征；各区域间主要周期变化的位相差异，表现为降水的空间分布格局（如南涝北旱、北涝南旱等分布型）随时间的变化；1000年来干湿气候发生过多次十年和百年尺度的突变，降水的突变对农业生产会有明显影响。过去1000年间多次出现过大范围的持续时间3年以上的严重于旱事件，其严重程度多为最近50年所未见，因此，在过去1000年的气候变化历程中，最近的50年沿属于气候条件较好 的时段，但对未来出现气候突变和重大气候灾异的可能性应予以警惕。     

全球变暖会导致气候严寒吗

文章对美国国防部“秘密报告”中全球变暖可能导致严寒的理论根据和现实可能性作了分析,指出由于气候变暖、极冰融化影响大洋的环流,进而影响全球气候;这样的事件在历史上曾有多次发生。但目前还不能说已经开始发生这样的过程。而且没有这样的先兆。因此,到2020年,发生“秘密报告”中所提出来的情景的可能性很小,但是不排除在更长时间发生某种气候受变的可能性,所以加强对气候突变的研究是非常必要的。     

鄱阳湖沙山高分辨率沙质地层及其冬季风气候信息记录的初步探究

位于鄱阳湖流域的长江、赣江等河谷、河漫滩的下风方向,由于处于冬季风强烈的东亚季风区,在高频率出现的大风、强风天气情况下,受风力吹蚀作用,常形成区域性的沙山堆积.沙山纵向垄状地形发育,其上风方向,槽、沟与碟形坑等侵蚀地貌发育,其下风方向,纵向沙垄发育.通过对样品的光释光年代测试和粒度频数分析,浅析星子PBL剖面的小冰期风积地层,揭示了小冰期晚期持续近60年左右的一次冷期,这个冷期以突变开始,以渐变结束,其清晰程度在其它地质记录中是不曾发现的.研究发现鄱阳湖沙山纵向沙垄往往具有缓倾斜的前积与侧积,层理(薄层与细层)往往较稳定,对揭露冬季风气候信息具有重要的意义.     

酒泉市50a气候变化特征及突变分析

利用酒泉市所属6个站点1959—2008年的气温和降水资料,采用滑动平均、趋势分析和Mann-Kendall等方法,分析该地区的气候变化的特征.结果表明:在全球变暖背景下,酒泉市的气温突变明显,而降水突变不明显.50a中,酒泉市年平均气温和各个季节的平均气温呈显著变暖趋势,其中90年代中后期的年平均气温发生了突变,酒泉市东部的突变年份早于西部;酒泉市年降水量呈微弱增长趋势,酒泉市东部的增长幅度略小于西部.这表明,气候突变在酒泉市不同的地区会有不同的体现,突变时间不同步.