Model–proxy comparison for overshoot phenomenon of Atlantic thermohaline circulation at Bφlling–Allerφd

The overshoot phenomenon of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation （THC） is a transient climate response to meltwater forcing and could induce intense climate change by increasing the magnitudes of Atlantic THC changes at the end of meltwater discharges. This phenomenon was formally presented with the successfully simulated Bolling-Allerod （BA） event in the first transient simulation of the last deglaciation with fully coupled model NCAR-CCSM3 （TraCE-21K）. Currently, not all proxy records of Atlantic THC support the occurrence of the THC overshoot at BA. Commonly used THC proxy from Bermuda Rise （GGC5） does not exhibit THC overshoot at BA but other proxies such as TTR-451 at Eirik Drift do. How to interpret this regional discrepancy of proxy records is a key question for the validation of the Atlantic THC overshoot at BA. Here, we show that the vigor of deep circulation varies regionally during the Atlantic THC overshoot at BA in TraCE-21K simulation, and this regional discrepancy in the simulation is consistent with that in the marine sediment records in North Atlantic. The consistent model-proxy evidence supports the occurrence of Atlantic THC overshoot at BA.     

Meta-analysis and its application in global change research

Meta-analysis is a quantitative synthetic research method that statistically integrates results from in- dividual studies to find common trends and differences. With increasing concern over global change, meta-analysis has been rapidly adopted in global change research. Here, we introduce the methodolo- gies, advantages and disadvantages of meta-analysis, and review its application in global climate change research, including the responses of ecosystems to global warming and rising CO2 and O3 concentrations, the effects of land use and management on climate change and the effects of distur- bances on biogeochemistry cycles of ecosystem. Despite limitation and potential misapplication, meta-analysis has been demonstrated to be a much better tool than traditional narrative review in synthesizing results from multiple studies. Several methodological developments for research synthe- sis have not yet been widely used in global climate change researches such as cumulative meta-analysis and sensitivity analysis. It is necessary to update the results of meta-analysis on a given topic at regular intervals by including newly published studies. Emphasis should be put on multi-factor interaction and long-term experiments. There is great potential to apply meta-analysis to global climate change research in China because research and observation networks have been established (e.g. ChinaFlux and CERN), which create the need for combining these data and results to provide support for governments’ decision making on climate change. It is expected that meta-analysis will be widely adopted in future climate change research.     

Neoproterozoic magmatic activity and global change

Neoproterozoic is a very important time in the history of the Earth, during which occurred supercontinent breakup, low-latitude glaciation, and biotic diversification.These concern a series of interdisciplinary studies involving ancient plate motion, climate change and life evolution, resulting in many forefront topics of general interest in the earth sciences. These include exact ages bracketing the Cryogenian System and glaciations, initial age and lasted duration of supercontinent breakup, dynamic reconstruction of China continents in supercontinental configurations, the nature of rift magmatism and extent of hydrothermal alteration, paleoclimatic implication of water-rock interaction and Iow-^18O magmatism, and relationship between supercontinental evolution and global change. A number of outstanding advances in the above aspects have being made by Chinese scientists, leaving many important issues to be resolved: (1)did the Cryogenian start at either 800 to 820 Ma or 760 to 780 Ma? (2) was South China in the supercontinental configuration located in either southeast to Australia or north to India? (3) are Paleoproterozoic to Archean ages of crustal rocks a valid parameter in distinguishing North China from South China? Available observations suggest that Neoproterozoic mantle superwelling occurred as conspicuous magmatism in South China but as cryptical magmatism in North China. Mid-Neoproterozoic mantle superplume event and its derived rift-magmatism would not only result in the supercontinental demise, but also play a very important role in the generation and evolution of the snowball Earth event by initiating the global glaciation, causing the local deglaciation and terminating the snowball Earth event.     

Retrospect and prospect: advances and future strategies in climate research

A brief review of the progress in climate research and a prospect on its further development in the 21st century is presented. Some key findings including the concept of climate system, the discovery of climatic multi-equilibrium and abrupt climate changes, and the recognition of human activities as an important force of climate change made breakthroughs in climatology possible during last few decades. The adaptation to climatic and global change emerged as a new aspect of climatic research during the 1990s. Climate research will break through in the observation of the global system, in the analysis of mass data, in the deepening of research on the mechanism of climatic change, and in the improvement of models. In the applied fields of climate research, there will be substantial progress in the research on adaptation to global change and sustainable development, on orderly human activities, and climate modification.     

Debating about the climate warming

Debating about the climate warming is reviewed. Discussions have focused on the validity of the temperature reconstruction for the last millennium made by Mann et al. Arguments against and for the reconstruction are introduced. Temperature reconstructions by other authors are examined, including the one carried out by Wang et al. in 1996. It is concluded that: (1) Ability of reproducing temperature variability of time scale less than 10 a is limited, so no sufficient evidence proves that the 1990s was the warmest decade, and 1998 was the warmest year over the last millennium. (2) All of the temperature reconstructions by different authors demonstrate the occurrence of the MWP (Medieval Warm Period) and LIA (Little Ice Age) in low frequency band of temperature variations, though the peak in the MWP and trough in LIA varies from one reconstruction to the others. Therefore, terms of MWP and LIA can be used in studies of climate change. (3) The warming from 1975 to 2000 was significant, but we do not know if it was the strongest for the last millennium, which needs to be proved by more evidence.     

The climate influence of anthropogenic land-use changes on near-surface wind energy potential in China

There is considerable interest in the potential impact of climate change on wind energy in China. The climate change of near-surface wind energy potential in China under the background of global warming and its association with anthropogenic land-use changes are investigated by calculating the difference in surface wind speeds between the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the observations since the reanalysis dataset contains the influence of large-scale climate changes due to greenhouse gases, it is less sensitive to regional surface processes associated with land types. The surface wind data in this study consist of long-term observations from 604 Chinese Roution Meteorological Stations and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1960-1999. The results suggest that the observed mean wind speeds significantly weakened and the near-surface wind power trended downward due to urbanization and other land-use changes in the last 40 years. The mean wind energy weakened by -3.84 W·m^-2 per decade due to the influence of anthropogenic land-use change, which is close to the observed climate change （-4.51 W·m^-2/10 a）.     

Characteristics of decadal-centennial-scale changes in East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation during the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age and in the present day

Using meteorological observations, proxies of precipitation and temperature, and climate simulation outputs, we synthetically analyzed the regularities of decadal-centennial-scale changes in the summer thermal contrast between land and ocean and summer precipitation over the East Asian monsoon region during the past millennium; compared the basic characteristics of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation and precipitation in the present day, the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP); and explored their links with solar irradiance and global climate change. The results indicate that over the last 150 years, the EASM circulation and precipitation, indicated by the temperature contrast between the East Asian mainland and adjacent oceans, had a significant decadal perturbation and have been weaker during the period of rapid global warming over the past 50 years. On the centennial time scale, the EASM in the MWP was strongest over the past 1000 years. Over the past 1000 years, the EASM was weakest in 1450-1570. When the EASM circulation was weaker, the monsoon rain belt over eastern China was generally located more southward, with there being less precipitation in North China and more precipitation in the Yangtze River valley; therefore, there was an anomalous pattern of southern flood/northern drought. From the 1900s to 1920s, precipitation had a pat- tern opposite to that of the southern flood/northern drought, with there being less precipitation in the Yangtze River valley and more precipitation in North China. Compared with the case for the MWP, there was a longer-time-scale southern flood/northern drought phenomenon in 1400-1600. Moreover, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not synchronously vary with the trend of global temperature. During the last 150 years, although the annual mean surface temperature around the world and in China has increased, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not have strengthening or weakening trends. Over the past 1000 years, the weakest EASM occurred ahead of the lowest Northern Hemispheric temperature and corresponded to the weakest solar irradiance.     

Runoff sensitivity to climate changes in the Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region （LRGR）： An example of the Longchuan Basin in the Upper Yangtze

The sensitivity of runoff to the climate change in the Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region （LRGR） in southwest China was investigated with a case study in the Longchuan Basin of the upper Yangtze River, where the climate change is more complex due to the influences from both global warming and local topography. Non-updating artificial neural networks were calibrated and validated at the baseline condition and were used to predict the response of runoff under 25 hypothetical climate scenarios, which were generated by adjusting the baseline temperature by -1, 0, 1, 2 and 3℃ and by scaling rainfall by 0%, ± 10% and ± 20%, The results indicated that runoff is more sensitive to the increase in rainfall. The annual and seasonal runoff changes were determined by the interaction between temperature and rainfall. At seasonal scale, the direction of change in runoff is more determined by temperature in winter and spring; whereas it is more determined by rainfall in summer and autumn. The LRGR in southwest China may experience a higher frequency of floods in the wet season and more serious droughts in the dry season, if a wetter summer and warmer winter is the trend of future climate change, as predicted by many GCMs.     

Climate instability during the last glaciation recorded in the Yuanbu loess section

Abrupt events within the Linxia Yuanbu loess section in the western Loess Plateau in China were investigated. The climatic proxy index of the content of mean grain-size and >4 μm grain-size fraction of the section was used as a climatic indicator, and a moving average method was applied in the statistical analysis to extract the abrupt events recorded in the section. It was found that the loess of the last glaciation recorded not only the abrupt events teleconnected with the high-latitude North Atlantic and Greenland regions but also as many as 15 abrupt events in addition to the Heinrich (H) and Younger Dryas (YD) events. This indicates that abrupt climate changes were typical of the climate changes occurring in the Loess Plateau during the last glaciation. The widely recognized mechanisms of the abrupt climate changes, including the heat transfer theory of the North Atlantic Ocean, the atmospheric circulation theory, and the theory of the interaction between low-latitude ocean and the atmosphere remains to be discussed. Perhaps this problem could be resolved by revealing the relation between the evolution of the features of the East Asian monsoon climate and the climate in the surrounding areas. Through a detailed study of the features of the Heinrich and YD events, criteria on which the abrupt events recorded in the loess could be distinguished were tentatively defined. The events were associated with a large grain size, high carbonate content, high lightness, low susceptibility, low redness and low yellowness. In addition, the variation amplitude of the adjacent peak and valley on the curve of the content of the mean grain-size and >40 μm grain-size fraction was larger than 3.4 μm and the content of >40 μm grain-size fraction was larger than 2.0 μm. Lastly, the length of the variation time was less than 500 years. If all these criteria were met, the event was viewed as an abrupt event.     

Pollen-inferred Holocene vegetation and climate histories in Taro Co,southwestern Tibetan Plateau

A 310-cm-long sediment core, covering the last 10,200 years, was collected from Taro Co on the south- western Tibetan Plateau and analyzed for pollen, grain size and total inorganic carbon content. The pollen data showed that vegetation changed from alpine steppe to alpine meadow during 10,200-8,900 cal a BP, to alpine steppe dominated by Artemisia during 8,900-7,400 cal a BP, to alpine meadow during 7,400-3,300 cal a BP and to alpine steppe after 3,300 cal a BP. Correspondingly, the pollen, grain size and total inorganic carbon content results revealed climatic change in this area over four stages. The initial stage was from 10,200 to 8,900 cal a BP, during which the climate changed from cold-dry to warm-humid. The second stage （8,900-7,400 cal a BP） was characterized by a warm and dry climate. However, at approximately 7,400 cal a BP, the climate began to become cold andhumid, which continued until 3,300 cal a BP. The last stage, from 3,300 cal a BP to present, was characterized as cold and increasingly arid. Climatic events of the early and mid-late Holocene showed that the area was significantly affected by the westerlies. However, the mid-Holocene climate in Taro Co was controlled by the Indian monsoon. The mid-late Holocene depositional environment record of Taro Co was very important to further elaborate the degree of influence by the westerlies or Indian monsoon.     

Deglacial rapid sea level rises caused by ice-sheet saddle collapses

The last deglaciation (21 to 7 thousand years ago) was punctuated by several abrupt meltwater pulses, which sometimes caused noticeable climate change. Around 14 thousand years ago, meltwater pulse 1A (MWP-1A), the largest of these events, produced a sea level rise of 14-18?metres over 350?years. Although this enormous surge of water certainly originated from retreating ice sheets, there is no consensus on the geographical source or underlying physical mechanisms governing the rapid sea level rise. Here we present an ice-sheet modelling simulation in which the separation of the Laurentide and Cordilleran ice sheets in North America produces a meltwater pulse corresponding to MWP-1A. Another meltwater pulse is produced when the Labrador and Baffin ice domes around Hudson Bay separate, which could be associated with the '8,200-year' event, the most pronounced abrupt climate event of the past nine thousand years. For both modelled pulses, the saddle between the two ice domes becomes subject to surface melting because of a general surface lowering caused by climate warming. The melting then rapidly accelerates as the saddle between the two domes gets lower, producing nine metres of sea level rise over 500 years. This mechanism of an ice 'saddle collapse' probably explains MWP-1A and the 8,200-year event and sheds light on the consequences of these events on climate.     

Ice-sheet collapse and sea-level rise at the Bølling warming 14,600 years ago

Past sea-level records provide invaluable information about the response of ice sheets to climate forcing. Some such records suggest that the last deglaciation was punctuated by a dramatic period of sea-level rise, of about 20?metres, in less than 500?years. Controversy about the amplitude and timing of this meltwater pulse (MWP-1A) has, however, led to uncertainty about the source of the melt water and its temporal and causal relationships with the abrupt climate changes of the deglaciation. Here we show that MWP-1A started no earlier than 14,650 years ago and ended before 14,310 years ago, making it coeval with the B?lling warming. Our results, based on corals drilled offshore from Tahiti during Integrated Ocean Drilling Project Expedition 310, reveal that the increase in sea level at Tahiti was between 12 and 22 metres, with a most probable value between 14 and 18 metres, establishing a significant meltwater contribution from the Southern Hemisphere. This implies that the rate of eustatic sea-level rise exceeded 40 millimetres per year during MWP-1A.     

Model evidence for climatic impact of thermohaline circulation on China at the century scale

Based on transient simulation of the last deglaciation (significant global warming period) using a fully coupled model and sensitivity experiment, we show explicitly how the thermohaline circulation (THC) affects the climate of China, especially during periods of abrupt climate change. The simulated evolution of the Chinese climate was consistent with the paleoclimate record during the last deglaciation. For example, the whole Chinese region warmed significantly during the Bølling-Allerød warming event (BA). When the magnitude of the THC was reduced in the sensitivity experiment during BA, warming of the Chinese region was greatly affected. Our work shows that in addition to orbital forcing and greenhouse gases, the THC is an important factor influencing climate change in China at the century scale.     

Holocene climatic and environmental changes recorded in Baahar Nuur Lake core in the Ordos Plateau, Inner Mongolia of China

A 5.3 m lake core was drilled in Baahar Nuur Lake in the Ordos Plateau, and measurements of meangrain size, organic δ 13C (δ 13Corg), organic carbon content (TOC), C/N, carbonate content, carbonate δ 13C(δ 13Ccar) and δ 18O (δ 18Ocar) were conducted for retrieving the Holocene chronosequence of climaticchanges based on 15 AMS 14C dates. The record documented four major stages of climate change inthe Ordos Plateau: (IV) a cold and dry condition before ～7.65 14C ka BP; (III) a warm and humid stagebetween ～7.65 and ～5.40 ka BP; (II) a generally drier and cooler climate since ～5.40 ka BP with twohumid events occurring from ～4.70 to ～4.60 ka BP and from ～4.20 to ～3.70 ka BP, and (I) a dry climatecharacterized by complete desiccation of the lake after 3.70 ka BP. Stage III can be further divided intothree sub-stages: (IIIa) a warm and humid episode from ～7.65 to ～6.70 ka BP, (IIIb) a warm and relativelydry episode from ～6.70 to ～6.20 ka BP, and (IIIc) the magthermal and maghumid episode of the Holo-cene from ～6.20 to ～5.40 ka BP.     

Twenty-five years of change in scleractinian coral communities of Daya Bay （northern South China Sea） and its response to the 2008 AD extreme cold climate event

Coral reefs worldwide are becoming increasingly and detrimentally impacted upon by a variety of factors including significant climate changes, such as global warming and increased El Nino-Southern Oscillation activity. Generally, the persistence of coral reefs, especially at low-latitudes, is governed, in part, by sea surface temperatures not exceeding the critical limit （-30℃） at which mass mortality can occur. Thus, it is thought that corals living at high-latitudes （i.e., currently cooler sea surface temperatures） will likely respond more favourably to hypothesized future temperature increases than corals living at low-latitudes （i.e., currently warmer sea surface temperatures）. Consequently, high-latitude coral communities may have the potential to act as regions of refugia for many coral species in the face of potential future global warming. The Daya Bay （22°31′--22°50′N）, northern South China Sea, contains several high-latitude non-reefal coral communities and represents one of the most northerly distributions of scleractinian corals within the region. Significantly, Daya Bay has experienced dramatic warming in both air and sea surface temperatures throughout the past 50 years. In this paper, we analyze 25 years of change in the Daya Bay coral communities, based both on historic surveys and our latest 2006--2008 regional ecological surveys. Our results suggest that, contrary to predictions, there have been significant declines in coral cover within the Daya Bay during the past 25 years （i.e., 76.6% coral cover in 1983/1984 to only 15.3% coral cover by 2008）. Such changes also reflect a significant shift in the most abundant coral species, from Acropora pruinosa to Favites abdita. Most of the modern coral communities became established between 15 and 30 years ago, corresponding to a period of increased winter sea surface temperature. However, very few colonies have become established within the last 15 years, despite a more intense period of warming. By taking into account additional factors, we hypothesize that direct anthropogenic impacts, rather than climatic events, have both restricted the development, and drove the decline, of Daya Bay coral communities in the last 15 years. The Daya Bay has also been subjected to occasional extreme cold events during the past 50 years, with the most recent occurring in early 2008 （13 January-13 February）. During the 2008 cold event, the lowest air temperature reaches only 6.6℃, and the mean sea surface temperature for February fall to 〈 14℃, including six continuous days at 12.3℃. Significantly, the sea surface temperatures fall below the hypothesized critical lower temperature threshold （-13℃） that commonly leads to mass mortality in scleractinian coral communities. Surprisingly, our coral community surveys, conducted both before （August 2007） and after （late February 2008） the extreme 2008 cold event, demonstrate that the Daya Bay coral ecosystems are barely impacted upon during the cold period. Those observations suggest that the Daya Bay scleractinian coral communities have developed adaptations to low sea surface temperatures. Overall, our data support the hypothesis that high-latitude coral communities, such as Daya Bay, have the potential to act as areas of refugia for scleractinian corals in the advent of potential future global warming.     

Study of the varve record from Erlongwan maar lake, NE China, over the last 13 ka BP

In a sediment sequence from Erlongwan maar lake that spans the last 13 ka BP, two main varve types can be recognized： biogenic varves （from the present to -11.2 ka BP, 0-632 cm） and clastic varves （from -11.2 to -12.7 ka BP, 632-700 cm）. Based on the dominant types of algae contained in the sediment, the biogenic varves can be classified into dinocyst-biogenic varves （0-63 cm） and mixed （dinocyst and diatom）-biogenic varves （214-632 cm）. In this paper, the formation process and components of the varve are described, the possible reason for the types of varve changing throughout the record is discussed and a high-resolution varve chronology is established spanning the last 13 ka BP. Although further varve counting and error assessment are needed, the results presented here represent a solid foundation for studying the palaeoclimate record of Erlongwan maar lake.     

温盐环流对气候突变的影响

由于全球气候变暖的一个负反馈机制——温盐环流的存在,使得气候在变暖过程中有可能出现突然变冷事件．地质历史时期气候突变事件的研究表明：这种潜在的突然变冷事件可能会持续几百年甚至上千年．加强对温盐环流强度变化的监测研究对于预测未来的气候变化,制定防灾减灾措施具有重要意义．     

Effects of historical land cover changes on climate

In order to explore the influence of anthropogenic land use on the climate system during the last mil- lennium, a set of experiments is performed with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity—— the McGill Paleoclimate Model (MPM-2). The present paper mainly focuses on biogeophysical effects of historical land cover changes. A dynamic scenario of deforestation is described based on changes in cropland fraction (RF99). The model simulates a decrease in global mean annual temperature in the range of 0.09-0.16℃, especially 0.14-0.22℃ in Northern Hemisphere during the last 300 years. The responses of climate system to GHGs concentration changes are also calculated for comparisons. Now, afforestation is becoming an important choice for the enhancement of terrestrial carbon sequestration and adjustment of regional climate. The results indicate that biogeophysical effects of land cover changes cannot be neglected in the assessments of climate change.